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Oil Prices Drop As Bearish Sentiment Builds

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After an initially subdued reaction to yet another crude oil build in the U.S. on Thursday, oil prices fell on Friday morning as bearish sentiment built. Speculation of further Russian production cuts and a rebound in Chinese demand had held oil prices higher, but inflation fears and continued inventory builds eventually sent prices lower.

Yet another build in U.S. crude inventories added to downward pressure on oil prices on Friday morning. The EIA’s report weighed particularly heavily on WTI, opening an arbitrage window into both Europe and Asia. The market reaction to another 7.6-million-barrel build was originally subdued by speculation of a further production cut from Russia and rumors of Chinese demand returning. Ultimately, inflation fears and continued inventory builds pushed oil prices lower, with ICE Brent trending around the $81 per barrel mark.

A Flotilla of US Oil Is Set to Sail to China. The relative weakness of WTI has prompted a revival in Chinese buying of US barrels as China’s state-owned Sinopec (SHA:600028) and Petrochina (SHA:601857) have fixed at least 10 VLCC tankers for March-loading cargoes out of the US Gulf Coast. 

ADNOC Gas IPO Goes According to Plan. As ADNOC Gas started off the 2023 season of Middle Eastern IPOs, the $2 billion public offering exceeded expectations as all available shares were snapped up within hours of opening, with each of the shares offered at $0.66, bringing the company valuation to $50.8 billion in total.

Chesapeake Cuts Drilling Amid Gas Price Woes. US natural gas-focused producer Chesapeake Energy (NASDAQ:CHK) said it would drop three rigs in the Haynesville and Marcellus basins and aim for a lower amount of completed wells in 2023 as plunging natural gas prices make drilling uneconomic.

Russia Fixes Crude Discounts on Exports. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin signed a law that capped the maximum possible discounts on Urals crude as part of an ongoing oil taxation overhaul, with the maximum discount set at $34 per barrel in April and gradually declining to $25 per barrel in July.

Iraq to Drop US Dollar in China Exports. The Iraqi central bank announced this week that it had allowed trade from China to be settled directly in yuan rather than US dollar, a relief for the country’s energy sector as since 2022 the US Treasury has enforced stricter controls on transactions by Iraqi banks.

China Re-Buys Stake in Global Oil Trader. China’s state-backed fund CNIC Corp. has bought a 5% stake in Swiss-based energy trader Mercuria, assumed to be worth at least $220 million, only months after another Chinese company ChemChina sold back a 12% stake in the same company.

Tight Diesel Stocks Remain Inflation Risk. With middle distillate stocks below the 10-year average in each of the main trading regions and a whopping 40 million barrels lower in Europe, any swift uptick in manufacturing and industrial activity is poised to send diesel prices back into an upward spiral.

Panama Copper Mine Dispute Escalate Further. One of the most impactful mining contract disputes in recent years pitting Canada’s First Quantum Minerals (TSE:FM) against Panama’s government has seen another twist as the operator suspended copper processing operations at the giant Cobre Panama mine and demobilized part of its staff.

Iraq Finalizes 2018 Licensing Round Contracts. The Iraqi government signed six new oil and gas contracts with Chinese, Hong Kong, and UAE-based investors with the aim of producing an additional 250,000 b/d of crude and up to 1 Bcm per year of natural gas from untapped plays.

Molybdenum Becomes Hottest Metal on the Market. Molybdenum, a relatively obscure metal used to boost the performance of alloys in pipelines, engines, and turbines, has become the best-performing metal of late, seeing its price surge 122% in the past 12 months to 800 per metric tonne amidst supply disruptions.

US to Hold First-Ever Wind Auction in Gulf of Mexico. The US Interior Department proposed its first sale of wind farm development rights in the Gulf of Mexico across a 102,480-acre area off of Lake Charles, LA, and two areas totaling 179,266 acres off of Galveston, TX.

Eskom CEO Firing Raises Questions over South Africa’s Power. As South Africa is struggling with rolling blackouts of up to 10 hours a day, the dismissal of Eskom CEO Andre de Ruyter after he claimed the ruling party was corrupt might create a leadership vacuum at the state-owned electricity company.

Cheniere Expedites Sabine Pass Development. Buoyed by exceptional profits as Q4 net income soared to $3.94 billion (almost triple analysts’ estimates), US LNG exporter Cheniere Energy (NYSEAMERICAN:LNG) has started developing its 20 mtpa Sabine Pass stage 5 expansion project.

China Locks In Another US LNG Term Deal. China Gas Holdings (HKG:0384), one of the largest independent gas distributors in China, signed two separate 20-year LNG deals with US exporter Venture Global for a total of 2 million tons LNG per year, adding to a flurry of similar deals recently.

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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