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Oil Prices Remain Excessively Vulnerable To Shocks | OilPrice.com

Irina Slav

Irina is a writer for Oilprice.com with over a decade of experience writing on the oil and gas industry.

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Crude oil price started the week on the seesaw, with headwinds and tailwinds battling for control in a persistently unstable market situation. A spike in Covid-19 infections on the one hand and returning optimism on the other pushed oil up and down. This volatility is likely to continue over the next few days as data about both forces continues to accumulate.

On the headwind side, global data showed that Covid-19 cases worldwide had risen to over 8 million but what was perhaps more worrying for oil traders were the reports suggesting that several U.S. states reported spikes in new infections, prompting talk about a possible second wave of the pandemic, which could lead to a total collapse of oil markets.

On top of these reports, BP chose this Monday to update on its long-term price projects and asset valuation, saying it now expected Brent crude to average $55 a barrel between 2021 and 2050. But what may have come as a shock to some, the supermajor also said it would take a hefty writeoff on its assets and exploration intangibles, to the tune of $26-21 billion on a pre-tax basis, in its second-quarter financial report.

While this was all bearish for oil, there were some bullish factors at play, too. One of these was the fact that global oil inventories have started to drain, and as demand for fuel recovered, this drain would accelerate. The other was optimism about OPEC+ cuts after media reported that Iraq, the notorious cartel laggard in production cut deals, had asked the foreign operators of its largest fields to increase the production caps they had already put in place in May.

“Even as the global markets are in the grips of a resurgence of risk aversion tied to new Covid outbreaks in China and the U.S., oil fundamentals are still moving in the right direction,” the head of commodity markets strategy at BNP Paribas, Harry Tchilinguirian, told Bloomberg.

“Renewed optimism that OPEC+ production cuts could remain in place if we see second wave concerns intensify have oil prices refusing to enter freefall,” Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, told Reuters. Related: IEA: The Energy Sector Will Never Be The Same Again

So, right now, the oil market is a battlefield for fears about the coronavirus and its effect on oil demand, which will undoubtedly be negative should those fears spark a slowdown in lifting the lockdowns, and expectations that supply will finally begin to shrink at a meaningful rate, which would support substantially higher prices.

Judging by the latest update about hedge fund oil buying, this time is yet to come. Reuters’ John Kemp reported in his regular weekly column that funds bought the equivalent of a modest 10 million barrels in the week to June 9, just a tad more than the 6 million barrels they bought the previous week. These compared withy an average weekly buying rate of 40 million barrels over the previous eight weeks, Kemp noted.

The situation could get even more polarized in the coming days and weeks, especially in the U.S. Despite draws, oil in global storage remained high in May, according to data from analytics firm OilX. Oil in floating storage has started to drain, but oil in onshore storage still rose in May. As of early June, total oil in onshore storage was above 4.5 billion barrels. Of this, some 1 billion barrels flowed into storage in the past couple of months and will take a lot longer to clear up.

Both Brent and WTI were trading down at the time of writing of this story, although any positive news will likely reverse the movement. The same goes for any negative news, chief among them the API crude oil inventory reports due out today, but also any reports of continued increases in new Covid-19 cases, with a particular focus on U.S. and Chinese data.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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