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Oil prices take biggest plunge in decades amid coronavirus uncertainty, price-war fears – CBC.ca

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Oil prices dramatically dropped as markets opened in Asia on Monday, down more than 25 per cent after a 10 per cent drop on Friday.

West Texas Intermediate crude fell $9 US to $32 and international benchmark Brent fell $11 to $34.

It was the largest single-day drop since the beginning of the Gulf War in 1991.

Prices are falling as Saudi Arabia, Russia and other oil-producing countries argue about how much to cut production in order to prop up prices.

Demand for energy is falling as people cut back on travel around the world. The worry is that the coronavirus outbreak will slow economies sharply, meaning even less demand.

OPEC and key ally Russia failed to agree Friday on a cut to oil production that would have contained the plunge, and on Saturday, Saudi Arabia’s state oil giant Aramco slashed export prices.

“We’re seeing the outcome of a one-two punch in terms of a demand shock from the coronavirus … and on top of that this weekend’s news of a price war started after the breakdown of OPEC plus Russia arrangements,” said Blake Shaffer, an assistant professor of economics and public policy at University of Calgary.

Shaffer said the demand-side drop was expected but the more recent development of a price war is a supply-side issue that’s hammering the market.

A ‘nuclear-sized event’

The oil market has seen arguments like this before. In 2014, OPEC held off production cuts in order to hold onto market share in the face of a resurgent U.S. oil industry. That led oil to tumble from over $100 US a barrel to below $40 by 2015.

But experts say this drop is much more dramatic.

“This is a really big move. I was an energy trader for 15 years. I don’t have all the daily moves in my head, but this would definitely be one of the biggest ones I’ve seen,” Shaffer said.

Martin Pelletier, a portfolio manager with Trivest Wealth Council in Calgary, said this is a “nuclear-sized event” for an already-hurting Alberta, and if not contained, the economic malaise could spread to the rest of the country.

“This could be the knock-out punch for Alberta, unfortunately,” Pelletier said, adding that some companies might not survive the hit.

“We’re going to really need to see some leadership coming out of Ottawa, and I mean both the Bank of Canada and [Prime Minister Justin] Trudeau and the government … This is a crisis; this is a very serious event.”

Pelletier said he’d like to see both a large fiscal spending program tailored to impacted provinces and an emergency rate cut.

The Alberta government’s recent spring budget forecasts WTI will average $58 US a barrel in the coming year, and Shaffer said this is bad news both for the economy as a whole and for the province’s royalty revenues.

“Roughly every dollar [per barrel] is about $350 million to the government … We’re talking about a $7 billion decline in revenue expectations,” he said. 

Some experts are predicting even lower numbers could be on the way.

Ali Khedery, a former Exxon adviser and now CEO of strategy firm Dragoman Ventures, tweeted “$20 oil in 2020 is coming” after news broke of Saudi Arabia’s plans to hike production.

Shaffer said seeing such a wide difference in price forecasts after the province’s budget dropped just weeks ago makes a strong case for the government to change how royalty revenues are budgeted and push for further economic diversification.

“If this is prolonged, you’ll see continued job layoffs and effects on families. One of the really important things I’ll stress is having an economy that isn’t dependent on the outcome of a price war between the Saudis and the Russians … I hope it’s yet another wake-up call in terms of the efforts to diversify our economy,” he said.

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Judge tells Florida’s top doctor not to threaten TV stations over abortion-rights ads

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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — A judge has blocked the head of Florida‘s state health department from taking any more action to threaten TV stations over an abortion-rights commercial they’ve been airing.

U.S. District Judge Mark Walker’s ruling Thursday sided with Floridians Protecting Freedom, the group that produced the commercial promoting a ballot measure that would add abortion rights to the state constitution if it passes in the Nov. 5 election. The group filed a lawsuit earlier this week over the state’s communications with stations.

“The government cannot excuse its indirect censorship of political speech simply by declaring the disfavored speech is ‘false,’” the judge said in a written opinion.

He added, “To keep it simple for the State of Florida: it’s the First Amendment, stupid.”

State Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo and John Wilson, who was then the top lawyer at the health department before resigning unexpectedly, sent a letter to TV stations on Oct. 3 telling them to stop running an FPF ad, asserting that it was false and dangerous. The letter also says it could be subject to criminal proceedings.

FPF said about 50 stations were running the ad and that most or all of them received the letter — and at least one stopped running the commercial.

The group said the state was wrong when it claimed that assertions in the commercial were false. The state’s objection was to a woman’s assertion that the abortion she received in 2022 after she was diagnosed with a terminal brain tumor would not be allowed under current state law.

The state hasn’t changed its position. In a statement Thursday, a spokesperson for the health department again said that the ads are “unequivocally false.”

The judge’s order bars further action from the state until Oct. 29, when he’s planning a hearing on the question.

The ballot measure is one of nine similar ones across the country, but the campaign over it is the most expensive so far, with ads costing about $160 million, according to the media tracking firm AdImpact. It would require the approval of 60% of voters to be adopted and would override the state law that bans abortion in most cases after the first six weeks of pregnancy, which is before women often realize they’re pregnant.

The administration of Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has taken multiple steps against the ballot measure campaign.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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With brain injuries a growing problem, the US military tests how to protect troops from blasts

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WASHINGTON (AP) — The blast shook the ground and its red flash of fire covered the doorway as U.S. special operations forces blew open a door during a recent training exercise.

Moments later, in their next attempt, the boom was noticeably suppressed and the blaze a bit smaller, testament to just one of the new technologies that U.S. Special Operations Command is using to limit the brain injuries that have become a growing problem for the military.

From new required testing and blast monitors to reshaping an explosive charge that reduces its blowback on troops, the command is developing new ways to better protect warfighters from such blast overpressure and to evaluate their health risks, particularly during training.

“We have guys lining up to volunteer for these studies,” said retired Sgt. Maj. F. Bowling, a former special operations medic who now works as a contractor at the command. “This is extremely important to the community. They’re very concerned about it.”

The Defense Department does not have good data on the number of troops with blast overpressure problems, which are much harder to detect than a traumatic brain injury.

Traumatic brain injuries are better known and have been a persistent problem among combat forces, including those subjected to missile strikes and explosions that hit nearby.

According to the department’s Traumatic Brain Injury Center of Excellence, more than 20,000 service members were diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries last year. More than 500,000 have been diagnosed since 2000.

Josh Wick, a Pentagon spokesperson, said emerging information from evaluations of both acute blasts and repetitive low-level exposures shows links to adverse effects, such as the inability to sleep, degraded cognitive performance, headaches and dizziness.

“Our top priority remains our forces’ long-term cognitive well-being and operational effectiveness as warfighters,” said Gen. Bryan Fenton, head of U.S. Special Operations Command. “We are committed to understanding and identifying the impacts of blast overpressure on our personnel’s brain health.”

Fenton said research with academics and medical and industry experts is helping find ways to mitigate and treat overpressure. He said cutting-edge technologies are key to reducing the effects of repeated exposures, such as those many of his troops experience.

Out in a remote training area for Army special forces at Fort Liberty in North Carolina, commandos used what they call a Muchete breaching charge, specifically formed into a shape that more precisely directs the blasts and limits the harmful waves coming from an explosion. A small number of journalists were allowed to watch the training.

“The reduction on the blast overpressure coming back on the operator on average is generally between 40 and 60%,” said Chris Wilson, who leads the team at the command that oversees clinical research and other performance-related initiatives. “It really also depends on where somebody is standing. But it’s certainly a pretty dramatic reduction in the exposure. So I think that’s a win.”

Wilson said development and testing of the refined charge is ongoing but that units are using this one now in training until one gets final approval and can be more widely distributed.

Because of the extensive amount of training for special operations forces — both to hone their skills and to prepare for specific operations — troops may practice breaching a door dozens or hundreds of times. As a result, training is where they are most likely to have such repeated exposures. The command wants a better sense of how each person is affected.

During the demonstration, a number of the Army special forces soldiers were wearing small monitors or sensors to help leaders better understand the level of blast pressure that troops are absorbing. The sensors allow officials to compare readings based on where troops were standing and how close they were to the blast.

The command is evaluating a number of blast sensors on the market, and some higher risk troops are already using them. Testing and other studies are continuing with the goal of getting them out across the force in the next couple of years.

According to Wilson and Col. Amanda Robbins, the command’s psychologist, there are distinct differences between acute traumatic brain injuries and what is called long-term blast exposure or blast overpressure.

Traumatic brain injuries, they said, are acute injuries that are relatively well documented and diagnosed. They said repetitive blast exposure needs more attention because there are lots of questions about the impact on the human brain. The damage is far more complex to diagnose and requires more study to establish links between the repetitive blasts and any damage or symptoms.

To aid the research, Special Operations Command is looking at doing more routine testing throughout service members’ careers. One test is a neurocognitive assessment that the command does every three years. Officials also want warfighters to be assessed if they have had a concussion or similar event.

The Defense Department more broadly will require cognitive assessments for all new recruits as part of an effort to protect troops from brain injuries resulting from blast exposures. New guidance released in August requires greater use of protective equipment, minimum “stand-off distances” during certain types of training, and a reduction in the number of people in proximity to blasts.

The other test being done by Special Operations Command is a more subjective comprehensive assessment that catalogs each person’s history of injuries or falls, even as a child. It’s done early to get a baseline.

Robbins said what they have seen is that new, younger operators and those with 20 or more years of experience are more amenable to doing the testing.

“The challenge is going to be in the midcareer operators who may be more concerned about self-reporting potentially having a perceived negative impact,” she said.

She added that the assessment is a way to take into account incidents that may not be in their medical records, so that problems can be identified early on and people can get treatment.

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Judge delays order in antitrust case requiring Google to open up its app store

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SAN FRANCISCO (AP) — A federal judge on Friday delayed an order requiring Google to open up its Android app store to more competition until an appeals court decides whether to block the shake-up because of legal questions surrounding a jury’s verdict that branded Google as an illegal monopolist.

The delay granted during a court hearing in San Francisco comes less than two weeks after U.S. District Judge James Donato issued a decision that would have forced Google to make sweeping changes to its Play Store for Android smartphones starting Nov. 1.

The mandated changes included a provision that would have required Google to make its library of more than 2 million Android apps available to any rivals that wanted access to the inventory and also distribute the alternative options in its own Play Store.

Google requested Donato’s order be stayed until the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals could examine the handling of a monthlong trial that led to the December 2023 verdict, which framed the Play Store as an illegal monopoly that stifles innovation and drives up consumer prices.

In Friday’s hearing, Donato scoffed at the notion that Google could succeed in overturning the trial verdict. “The verdict in this case was amply supported by a mountain of evidence about Google’s anti-competitive conduct,” the judge said.

But he decided the Ninth Circuit should be given a chance to consider a postponement until a panel of judges can decide can consider Google’s appeal of the 2023 trial focused on antitrust claims lodged by video game maker Epic Games.

Donato said he wouldn’t be surprised if the Ninth Circuit imposes an even longer delay on his ruling, “but that is for someone else to decide.”

In a statement, Google said it was pleased Donato hit the pause button while it tries to extend the delay even further.

“These remedies threaten Google Play’s ability to provide a safe and secure experience and we look forward to continuing to make our case to protect 100 million U.S. Android users, over 500,000 U.S. developers and thousands of partners who have benefited from our platforms,” Google said.

Epic pointed to Donato’s critical comments about the merits of Google’s appeal in a statement that described the stay as a “procedural step.”

It’s unclear how long the Ninth Circuit will take to decide on Google’s request for a permanent stay of Donato’s ruling while its appeals unfolds — a process that could take more than a year.

In 2021, the Ninth Circuit delayed a provision of another federal judge’s order mandating that Apple allow links to alternative payment systems with apps made for the iPhone as part of another antitrust case brought by Epic.

Although Apple avoided being labeled an illegal monopolist in a trial involving the iPhone app store, it unsuccessfully fought the provision requiring the company to allow alternative payment links within apps. But delaying that requirement preserved Apple’s exclusive control of a payment system that has generated commissions ranging from 15% to 30% on some e-commerce occurring within apps. Apple exhausted its avenue of appeals in the U.S. Supreme Court earlier this year.

Google also pockets billions of dollars annually from a similar commission system within its Play Store for Android phones — a setup that is allowed to continue as long as Google can prevent Donato’s ruling from taking effect.

In its arguments for delaying Donato’s order, Google said it wasn’t being given enough time to make the drastic changes it framed as “a Herculean task creating an unacceptable risk of safety and security failures within the Android ecosystem.” In its Friday statement, Epic blasted Google’s tactics as “fearmongering.”

Google also argued the shake-up would saddle it with unreasonable costs, a contention Donato also brushed aside during Friday’s hearing.

“I don’t want to be glib about it, but the expense that Google might incur appears to be a drop in the bucket compared to the profits it reaps annually from the Play Store,” Donato said.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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