Daily roundup of research and analysis from the The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow
Morgan Stanley’s research department highlights U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson’s faith in oil stocks in the coming months,
“MS Chief US Equity Strategist Mike Wilson highlights that with the Fed appearing to be less concerned about inflation or looser financial conditions, reflation trades are coming back into vogue. Mike thinks that the internals of the market appear to be onto this with some of the strongest breadth coming from the commodity cyclicals. On this front, Mike points out that large cap Energy is a classic late cycle winner that has underperformed the market materially since last September, but has shown strong relative performance and breadth recently. Mike thinks this recent outperformance continues. He recommends staying up the cap and quality curve within the sector. He points out that the sector’s relative performance versus the S&P 500 has lagged the price of crude year-to-date, and Morgan Stanley’s Global Commodities Strategist, Martijn Rats, recently raised his Brent forecast to $90/bbl by 3Q given incrementally tighter supply/demand balances. This view on the commodity plus inflecting relative earnings revisions, strong breadth and compelling valuation (8th percentile of historical EV/EBITDA levels) suggest to Mike that the divergence between oil prices and the sector’s relative performance is likely to close via a catch up in Energy equities”
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Wells Fargo global investment strategist Michelle Wan warned clients not to get carried away with equity exposure,
“The stock market rally is quite visible, but risks are not always apparent in the numbers. Historically investors have used the equity risk premium (ERP), a variable that incorporates investors’ views on risks, as one gauge of the relative investment attractiveness between stocks and bonds. We measure the S&P 500 Index ERP as the earnings yield for that index minus the U.S. ICJ-year Treasury bond yield. Typically, lower ERPs have corresponded to lower expected returns over the long run. Today, ERPs are at their lowest since 2008 largely because bond yields have risen to decades’ levels … For over a decade after the great financial crisis, ERPs remained positive and mostly above bond yields, consistent with a protracted bull market period for U.S. Large Cap Equities. The post-pandemic regime of rising interest rates led to a decline in ERPs. Today’s S&P 500 Index ERP near zero indicates that investors are not being paid much, if anything, for taking the greater risk of volatility in large- capitalization equities”
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BofA Securities U.S. quantitative strategist Savita Subramanian defended the S&P 500′s higher (on the surface) valuation levels relative to Europe,
“BofA’s three quantitative models now all reflect an upturn in the equity cycle … While Europe is often seen as “Value,” we debunk the valuation discount that Europe has. We recommend owning U.S. cyclicals for the “upturn.” We hear “the S&P 500 is egregiously expensive vs. Europe.” At first glance, it is true: the S&P 500 trades at 21x, vs. just 14x for European equities, a 50% premium, near record highs. However, 75% of that premium simply comes from the composition difference – i.e., the S&P 500 has more asset-light sectors like Tech. Adjusting for the composition difference, the premium shrinks to just 12% … The current premium of 12% implies the U.S. economy outgrowing the European economy by 2.6ppt this year, just slightly higher than our house forecasts of +2.7% vs. +0.4%, respectively. Energy security in the US is also a major advantage over Europe, especially with brewing geopolitical risks … Power is increasingly becoming a major constraint in building AI data centers, leading to increased demand for electrification, and mega construction projects drive increased business activity domestically”
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
Losing a loved one is never easy, and the legal steps that follow can add even more stress to an already difficult time.
For years, families in Vancouver (and Canada in general) have struggled with a complex probate process—filled with paperwork and legal challenges.
Thankfully, recent changes to Canada’s probate laws aim to make this process simpler and easier to navigate.
Let’s unearth how these updates can simplify the process for you and your family.
What is probate?
Probate might sound complicated, but it’s simply the legal process of settling someone’s estate after death.
Here’s how it works.
Validating the will. The court checks if the will is legal and valid.
Appointing an executor. If named in the will, the executor manages the estate. If not, the court appoints someone.
Settling debts and taxes. The executor (and you) pays debts and taxes before anything can be given.
Distributing the estate. Once everything is settled, the executor distributes the remaining assets according to the will or legal rules.
Probate ensures everything is done by the book, giving you peace of mind during a difficult time.
Recent Changes in Canadian Probate Laws
Several updates to probate law in the country are making the process smoother for you and your family.
Here’s a closer look at the fundamental changes that are making a real difference.
1) Virtual witnessing of wills
Now permanent in many provinces, including British Columbia, wills can be signed and witnessed remotely through video calls.
Such a change makes estate planning more accessible, especially for those in remote areas or with limited mobility.
2) Simplified process for small estates
Smaller estates, like those under 25,000 CAD in BC, now have a faster, simplified probate process.
Fewer forms and legal steps mean less hassle for families handling modest estates.
3) Substantial compliance for wills
Courts can now approve wills with minor errors if they reflect the person’s true intentions.
This update prevents unnecessary legal challenges and ensures the deceased’s wishes are respected.
These changes help make probate less stressful and more efficient for you and other families across Canada.
The Probate Process and You: The Role of a Probate Lawyer
(Image: Freepik.com)
Working with a probate lawyer in Vancouver can significantly simplify the probate process, especially given the city’s complex legal landscape.
Here’s how they can help.
Navigating the legal process
Probate lawyers ensure all legal steps are followed, preventing costly mistakes and ensuring the estate is managed properly.
Handling paperwork and deadlines
They manage all the paperwork and court deadlines, taking the burden off of you during this difficult time.
Resolving disputes
If conflicts arise, probate lawyers resolve them, avoiding legal battles.
Providing you peace of mind
With a probate lawyer’s expertise, you can trust that the estate is being handled efficiently and according to the law.
With a skilled probate lawyer, you can ensure the entire process is smooth and stress-free.
Why These Changes Matter
The updates to probate law make a big difference for Canadian families. Here’s why.
Less stress for you. Simplified processes mean you can focus on grieving, not paperwork.
Faster estate settlements. Estates are settled more quickly, so beneficiaries don’t face long delays.
Fewer disputes. Courts can now honor will with minor errors, reducing family conflicts.
Accessible for everyone. Virtual witnessing and easier rules for small estates make probate more accessible for everyone, no matter where you live.
With these changes, probate becomes smoother and more manageable for you and your family.
How to Prepare for the Probate Process
Even with the recent changes, being prepared makes probate smoother. Here are a few steps to help you prepare.
Create a will. Ensure a valid will is in place to avoid complications.
Choose an executor. Pick someone responsible for managing the estate and discuss their role with them.
Organize documents. Keep key financial and legal documents in one place for easy access.
Talk to your family. Have open conversations with your family to prevent future misunderstandings.
Get legal advice. Consult with a probate lawyer to ensure everything is legally sound and up-to-date.
These simple steps make the probate process easier for everyone involved.
Wrapping Up: Making Probate Easier in Vancouver
Recent updates in probate law are simplifying the process for families, from virtual witnessing to easier estate rules. These reforms are designed to ease the burden, helping you focus on what matters—grieving and respecting your dead loved ones’ final wishes.
Despite these changes, it’s best to consult a probate lawyer to ensure you can manage everything properly. Remember, they’re here to help you during this difficult time.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was higher in late-morning trading, helped by strength in energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also moved up.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 34.91 points at 23,736.98.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.05 points at 41,800.13. The S&P 500 index was up 28.38 points at 5,661.47, while the Nasdaq composite was up 133.17 points at 17,725.30.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.56 cents US compared with 73.57 cents US on Monday.
The November crude oil contract was up 68 cents at US$69.70 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up three cents at US$2.40 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$7.80 at US$2,601.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.28 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.
