Oil tumbles 5% on fears over U.S. debt default, economy By Investing.com | Canada News Media
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Oil tumbles 5% on fears over U.S. debt default, economy By Investing.com

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Investing.com — OPEC+ might not like what it’s seeing but as the saying goes: “It is what it is.”

A month after the creative production maneuver by the oil producing alliance that got a barrel up by about $10 or more, crude prices had shifted direction again and were headed deeper into red territory as fears of a possible U.S. debt default added to weak factory data in the world’s largest economy.

Both U.S. crude and global oil benchmark Brent were down almost 5% in Tuesday’s morning trade in New York, following the slump in stocks, after Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the U.S. government could run out of money within a month.

New York-traded West Texas Intermediate, or , for June delivery settled down $4, or 5.3%, at $71.66 per barrel.

WTI could break $70 support next though a sharp rebound is also likely due to oversold conditions, Sunil Kumar Dixit, chief technical strategist at SKCharting.com, said.

“As short time frames turn oversold, a reactive bounce back from the lows can hardly be ruled out which may cause some recovery towards $74.00 and even $75.70,” said Dixit. “Nonetheless, the 200-week Simple Moving Average of $67.00 remains a potential destination wide open.”

London-traded for July delivery, meanwhile, finished Monday’s session down $3.99, or 5%, at $75.32.

“OPEC+ will surely hate how oil prices have turned again in just a month but that’s what the reality is,” said John Kilduff, partner at New York energy hedge fund Again Capital. “The economy’s always a greater concern, especially if there’s a potential debt default at hand.”

Since this week began, WTI has lost 6%, adding to the 1.2% decline from last week and another 6% drop from the prior week. Brent was nursing a 5% drop on the week after last week’s 2.6% decline and the prior week’s 5% slump.

In terms of absolute pricing, WTI had gone from a high of $83.53 in days after the OPEC+ production maneuver to Monday’s session low of $71.44. Brent went from a peak of $86.90 to the latest session low of $75.09.

OPEC+, which groups the 13-member Saudi-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with 10 independent oil producers, including Russia, said it will cut a further 1.7 million barrels from its daily output, adding to an earlier pledge from November to take off 2.0M barrels per day.

OPEC+, however, has a history of over-promising and under-delivering on production cuts. While the group achieved over-compliance on promised cuts in the aftermath of the 2020 coronavirus breakout, experts say that was more a result of battered demand that led to minimal production, rather than a will to cut barrels as pledged.

The cost of insuring against a U.S. default hit fresh highs after Yellen said on Monday that the Biden administration might not meet all payment obligations by “early June,” prompting the president to summon four top congressional leaders to the White House next week.

Adding to the concerns over a debt default were latest readings on U.S. and durable goods that came in lower than expected.

for March, meanwhile, fell as layoffs and discharges rose, the Labor Department reported.

One relief for not just the oil market but risk investors in general might come from signs that the Federal Reserve will pause on its more than one-year of rate hikes after another quarter-point increase on that will leave U.S. rates at a peak of 5.25% versus inflation trending at 4.0-5.0%.

 

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Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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