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Josh Owens

Josh Owens is the Content Director at Oilprice.com. An International Relations and Politics graduate from the University of Edinburgh, Josh specialized in Middle East and…

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The brief rebound in oil prices was never going to last in the current environment, and as the global crude glut nears historic highs, prices are heading towards $20

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Friday, March 27th, 2020

Markets rallied this week as the U.S. Congress appears poised to pass a $2 trillion stimulus plan. Jobless claims in the U.S. topped 3 million, with economists seeing unemployment nearing Great Depression levels in the coming months. Meanwhile, despite the rally for equities, oil prices did not hold up, with WTI back down close to $20 per barrel as the historic glut continues to worsen.  

SPR plan scrapped. The U.S. Department of Energy withdrew its plan to buy 77 million barrels of oil for the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) after funding for the plan was removed from the $2 trillion stimulus plan. 

Investors pressure majors to cut dividends. The top five oil majors added $25 billion in debt last year, while hiking dividends. Now, on the ropes with oil in the mid-$20s, debt will accumulate much faster. More investors are calling for a cut to dividends. “Long term, it is appropriate to cut the dividend. We are not in favor of raising debt to support the dividend,” Jeffrey Germain, a director at Brandes Investment Partners, told Reuters.

Half Latin American oil uneconomic. “Latin America’s flowing production is over 7 million barrels per day. At current prices, we estimate that half is non-economic, taking into account all costs, including transportation and taxes,” Ruaraidh Montgomery from oil research firm Welligence, told Reuters Related: Cesium – The Most Important Metal You’ve Never Heard Of

European gas inventories at record high. As of March 1, storage for gas in Europe was 60 percent full, the highest ever recorded at the start of March. 

Occidental cuts worker pay. Occidental Petroleum (NYSE: OXY) cut salaries for its U.S. workers by 30 percent. 

Dakota Access loses court case. The Standing Rock Sioux Tribe won a major victory in federal court this week, with a judge ordering a full environmental impact statement for the Dakota Access pipeline. The project owned by Energy Transfer Partners (NYSE: ET) has already been operational for three years. The decision could potentially lead to the shutdown of the pipeline. 
Pompeo pressures MbS on oil price war. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo spoke with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman by phone this week, asking for the Saudis to pull back from the price war. Pompeo urged Riyadh to “rise to the occasion and reassure” energy markets at a time of economic uncertainty.

Senators accuse Saudi Arabia of economic warfare. A group of Republican senators sent Sec. of State Mike Pompeo a letter, accusing Saudi Arabia of economic warfare because of Riyadh’s decision to increase oil production. The letter said the U.S. could explore antitrust authority as well as revisit support for the war in Yemen, a clear threat to Saudi Arabia. 

Saudi Arabia struggling to find buyers. Saudi Arabia is struggling to find buyers for extra oil as demand collapses. Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A), China’s Unipec, Finland’s Neste, some Indian refiners and other U.S. refiners are taking less crude from Saudi Arabia, according to Reuters. Taken together, the inability to find buyers reduces the odds of Saudi Arabia ramping up production aggressively to over 12 mb/d.

Largest shut in of production in 35 years. In certain areas oil prices is trading in single digits. Bloomberg notes that Wyoming Sweet oil was trading at $1.75 per barrel this week, forcing some small producers to shut in. That could happen in many places around the world. “We need to cut crude supply by 10 million barrels a day pretty quickly,” Russel Hardy, the head of top independent oil trader Vitol Group, told Bloomberg. “Oil prices will need to go lower, to bring the prices to a level that triggers a response.” Related: What Happens If U.S. Shale Goes Bust?

20 mb/d surplus. New estimates from a series of oil market analysts put the drop in demand from the pandemic at about 20 mb/d, a figure that is dramatically larger than estimates from as recently as a week ago. Goldman put it at 18.7 mb/d. It is the largest decline in history by far, and one so large that a return of OPEC+ cuts would not address. 

China struggles to restart amid global recession. The worst of China’s pandemic is over, but the restart of factories in China is running into trouble as the rest of the world goes into lockdown and cancels purchases of a variety of Chinese goods. “The unprecedented shutdown of normal economic activity across Europe, the U.S. and a growing number of emerging markets is certain to cause a dramatic contraction in Chinese exports, probably in the range of a 20-45% year-on-year drop in the second quarter,” said Thomas Gatley, senior analyst at research firm Gavekal Dragonomics.

Plastics industry seeks roll back of bag bans. Producers of plastic are lobbying to reverse plastic bag bans across the United States, using the pandemic as a reason to allow more disposable plastic. 

Oil storage filling up. The world is estimated to have between 0.9 and 1.8 billion barrels of oil storage capacity, with the industry using 71 percent currently. But crude qualities cannot be stored together, and there are other logistical bottlenecks preventing full use of all storage facilities. Traders told Reuters that storage in the U.S. could reach capacity by May or June. Canadian output could begin to fall in April as storage maxes out. 

Canadian oil sands shut ins begin. Western Canada Select is trading at around $9 per barrel, forcing some shut-ins. Suncor Energy (NYSE: SU) said it would shut in one of its trains at its Fort Hills project. 

Gasoline prices plunge. $1 gasoline is popping up in a growing number of regions in the U.S. Nationally, retail gasoline prices are set to average $1.49 per gallon by mid-April. “You almost can’t even give it away,” Paul Bingham, head transportation economist at IHS Markit Ltd., told Bloomberg. “The price elasticity has totally changed. It’s full-on demand destruction.”

Petrobras to cut spending by 30 percent. Petrobras (NYSE: PBR) said it would cut 2020 spending by 30 percent to $8.5 billion and lower its production by 100,000 bpd. That includes shutting in shallow water production of 23,000 bpd.

Iraq asks IOCs to cut spending by 30 percent. Iraq asked four international oil companies to lower their spending by 30 percent, a list that includes Eni (NYSE: E), ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), Lukoil and BP (NYSE: BP). The request would ease a burden on Iraqi budgets.

By Josh Owens for Oilprice.com

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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