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Oilpatch reacts to unprecedented oil crash with spending cuts

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CALGARY – Energy fund managers told their clients to take heartburn medication and oil CEOs braced for impact but, in the end, no one was spared from the unprecedented collapse in energy markets this week.

“I don’t feel we were particularly spared,” said Ian Dundas, president and CEO of Enerplus Corp., who saw his company’s share price fall 37 per cent on Monday — a brutal day for the light oil and gas player, but relatively better than some of his competitors, who saw their share prices fall 50 to 70 per cent.

Now, Dundas and his peers are completely reworking capital budgets for the year, reconsidering spending plans and trying to cut costs after oil prices collapsed on news Saudi Arabia would flood the market with oil in its price war with Russia.

“We, like everybody else I know, are re-examining our spending plans with a downward bias,” Dundas said Tuesday, adding the company was moving swiftly on its spending review. “I think moving slowly in this is not a good plan.”

On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia announced it planned to produce 12.5 million barrels of oil per day next month, up from 9.7 million bpd in March, while it also cut prices for its crude to undercut Russia. In response, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said Tuesday his country could increase its oil output by 500,000 bpd.

Caught in the crossfire are Canadian and U.S. oil producers, who are already reviewing their spending plans.

Late Monday, Cenovus Energy Inc. responded to its 52 per cent share price drop on the day by slashing spending, cutting its crude-by-rail program and reducing its planned production for the year.

“Consistent with our commitment to balance sheet strength, we’re exercising our flexibility to reduce discretionary capital while maintaining our base business and delivering safe and reliable operations,” Cenovus CEO Alex Pourbaix said in a release.

Cenovus, which climbed nearly 12 per cent Tuesday to $4.27 per share to pare back some losses, announced the company would spend between $900 million and $1 billion this year, down from between $1.3 billion and $1.5 billion.

Other producers including Whitecap Resources Inc., Journey Energy Inc., Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. have all deferred planned spending.

“Companies overnight have gone into survival mode,” said Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager with Ninepoint Partners in Toronto, whose fund is focused on the energy sector.

Nuttall’s trading screen turned bright red on Monday as energy companies tumbled along with oil prices, marking the biggest oil market correction in decades — worse than either the 2014 oil price crash or the 2008 financial crisis.

Companies overnight have gone into survival mode

Eric Nuttall

“It was my worst day by far,” he said. “When across the board, names are down 30, 40 or 50 per cent, there’s only so much you can do. You can take advantage of selling the weak to buy the strong.”

Nuttall said he was active on Monday, selling off a U.S. shale oil company to buy a Canadian oilsands producer, which he declined to name as he’s restricted on it for a few days after a trade.

Other fund managers also signalled they consider Canadian oil and gas companies better prepared for the current downturn than some U.S.-headquartered producers.

“We still favour Canadian companies over U.S. companies — we think Canadian companies will weather this storm a lot better,” BMO Capital Markets managing director and chief investment strategist Brian Belski told the Financial Post in a video interview.

He said that many Canadian companies have “found religion” around controlling spending in recent years, which has led to more debt repayments, better balance sheets and reduced costs.

“We don’t think it’s time to sell energy, we think it’s time to be a little more prudent in our energy picks, especially in the United States because United States companies have actually been spending more money,” Belski said.

Enerplus’s Dundas said he believes his company has entered this period in a relatively healthy financial position. He said Monday’s drop was “an unprecedented shock, but we’re in a good starting place.”

Data from CIBC World Markets shows Enerplus’s debt-to-cash flow ratio was 0.9 at the end of 2019, meaning the company could repay its debt in under a year at 2019 pricing and cash flows.

“The only thing that matters now is balance sheets,” said Jennifer Rowland, with Edward Jones in St. Louis, adding that Monday’s oil market rout was particularly hard on companies with higher debt levels.

“Anybody that’s carrying more debt than they should be was punished more,” she said.

U.S. crude rebounded nearly 8 per cent to US$33.89 Tuesday morning after falling 25 per cent Monday — but nobody expects the market to return to normalcy amid a showdown between Riyadh, Moscow and U.S. shale producers.

Western Canada Select, the heavy oil benchmark price that most oilsands producers receive for their production, rose slightly to US$20.14 per barrel on Tuesday according to Bloomberg. By contrast, WCS traded at US$32.49 per barrel a month ago on Feb. 10.

The uncertain forecast and volatile prices mean capital and operational expenditure of exploration and production companies will likely be cut by US$100 billion in 2020 and another US$150 billion in 2021 if oil prices remain around US$30 level, according to Rystad Energy.

“Unfortunately, this volume war, if it continues throughout 2020 and 2021, will lead to a massive wave of bankruptcies and consolidation in the service market, whose debt obligations are set to grow 27 per cent into 2021,” said Audun Martinsen, Oslo-based head of oilfield service research at Rystad. “Companies with low leverage and with healthy order books from past wins in 2018 and 2019 will be able to steer through the storm.”

The only thing that matters now is balance sheets

Jennifer Rowland

RBC Capital Markets believe nearly a million barrels a day of demand growth will be destroyed this year, if oil remains in the US$30-40 barrel range. It’s RBC’s base case, with a 40 per cent probability.

RBC’s bear case however, also has a 40 per cent probability. And it entails Saudi Arabia and Russia ramping output, but resilient U.S. producers still managing to crank out substantial output for sometime to come.

Rory Johnston, managing director and market economist at Price Street, a Toronto-based market research firm, said the Saudis planned to send “an astronomical amount” of oil into the market beginning next month, which will create a supply shock in the market, which had already been grappling with a contraction in oil demand as a result of the outbreak of the coronavirus.

“It’s a historic move to have an outright demand contraction along with a price war,” Johnston said.

However, Johnston also noted that oil prices partially rebounded on Tuesday on news that the Saudis planned to send more oil into the market than they can physically pump.

He said most economists believe that the Arab country’s total production capacity is around 12 million bpd, so plans to sell 12.5 million bpd beginning in April implies they will be drawing oil out of storage to flood the market.

“They can’t keep that production level going indefinitely,” he said, indicating there is some hope in oil markets the supply-side shock will be brutal but short-lived.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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