Oil's Black Friday: Algos, options turn a tumble into a crash - BNN | Canada News Media
Connect with us

Business

Oil's Black Friday: Algos, options turn a tumble into a crash – BNN

Published

3 years ago

 on


Black Friday turned red very quickly for global oil markets. 

The day after Thanksgiving has been choppy before — fewer traders can mean more volatility — but nothing like this year. The prospect of the freshly named Omicron variant of COVID derailing the world’s fight against the pandemic saw an early morning sell-off become a full-blown crash. 

At the end, investors were rushing to cover short positions, analysts were ripping up forecasts and next week’s OPEC+ meeting was up in the air. West Texas Intermediate oil, the U.S. benchmark, closed 13 per cent lower, the biggest decline since April 2020. Brent crude slumped 12 per cent.

Oil had climbed fairly steadily through the year, staging a comeback as economic life gradually recovered from the pandemic, putting drivers back in cars and passengers into planes. Many analysts have global demand close to pre-pandemic levels above 100 million barrels a day. With OPEC+ keeping a tight grip on supply, several senior traders said US$100 oil could be close. 

But news of a fresh COVID-19 variant, which scientists fear could be more transmissible and less susceptible to vaccines than existing strains, sent familiar shivers through the market. Benchmark crude futures posted the biggest single-day plunge since the early days of the pandemic, showing just how fragile this recovery is. 

“It’s been a crazy day in the markets that feels very reminiscent of last March,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda Europe. 

Embedded Image

The initial plunge was driven by revived fears of widespread lockdowns and travel bans, but a host of technical factors, including anemic post-holiday volumes, exacerbated the sell-off. The panic spread to every corner of the market from European diesel trades and time-spreads, the relative value of oil today to oil tomorrow, through to opaque options markets. 

“Factors such as the break of technical support levels and an environment with lower liquidity post the Thanksgiving holiday have intensified the price drop,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS Group AG.

It had already been an unusual week in the market. On Tuesday, the U.S. and other top oil consumers said they would release supplies from emergency reserves in a bid to curb surging energy costs. In response, the OPEC+ cartel, led by Saudi Arabia, had said it might scrap plans to increase production. London’s benchmark Brent prices rallied back above US$80 a barrel.

But that was before Omicron.

Asia and European trading saw a steady sell-off early on Friday, prices were down 5 per cent by mid-morning in London. But the real excitement came in U.S. hours. 

The market spiraled ever lower as oil broke through key technical levels — U.S. futures pierced their 100-day and 200-day moving averages. That gave algorithmic computer-driven trades the upper hand on a day when many participants were away from the market. 

“The sell-off has no doubt been driven exacerbated by algo-driven trading as key technical levels broke down,” said Fawad Razaqzada, an analyst at ThinkMarkets.

Then the options market kicked in. When prices fall heavily, banks often sell futures contracts in order to hedge themselves against losses from put options — contracts that grant the right to sell at a particular price. Banks often sell puts to producers who want to protect against a bear market. This feedback loop, known as negative gamma to options traders, was seen as a factor on Friday.

“Dealers just took down hedges and they are shorter put options than normal, so must sell futures to hedge,” said Ilia Bouchouev, a partner at Pentathlon Investments and former head of oil derivatives at Koch Supply and Trading.

At the worst point of the crash, New York’s WTI futures slumped 14 per cent from its pre-Thanksgiving close and London’s Brent collapsed more than 12 per cent. By the close they’d both recovered slightly, but for London futures it was still the seventh worst one-day drop in history.

What happens next depends on whether the direst predictions for Omicron’s impact are realized. 

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a note that Friday’s move priced in a 4 million-barrel hit to demand over the next three months, nowhere close to the first lockdown, but more than enough to throw the market back into disarray. In any case, the Wall Street bank said that was excessive.

For many the crash is a buying opportunity because they expect prices to recover quickly when the U.S. market returns fully after the holiday and volumes return to normal. The longer-term outlook remains robust.

“This is a huge overreaction in terms of the market,” Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “This is the market pricing in the worst possible scenarios.”

Adblock test (Why?)



Source link

Related Topics:
Continue Reading

Business

What Difference Will You Make to an Employer?

Published

17 hours ago

 on

October 21, 2024

By

It’s common knowledge that companies don’t hire the most qualified candidates. Employers hire the person they believe will deliver the best value in exchange for their payroll cost.

Since most job seekers know the above, I’m surprised that so few mention their Employee Value Proposition (EVP). Most job seekers list their education, skills, and experience without substantiating them and expect employers to determine whether they can benefit their company; hence, most resumes and LinkedIn profiles are just a list of opinions—borderline platitudes—that are meaningless and, therefore, have no value. Job seekers need to better explain, along with providing evidence, how they’ll contribute to an employer’s success.

Employers don’t hire opinions (read: talk is cheap); they hire results.

You’re not offering anything tangible when you claim:

 

  • I’m a great communicator.
  • I’m detail oriented.
  • I’m a team player.

 

Tangible:

 

  • “At Global Dynamics, I held quarterly town hall meetings with my 22 sales reps, highlighting our accomplishments, identifying opportunity areas, and recognizing outstanding performers.”
  • “For eight years, I managed Vandelay Industries IT department, overseeing a staff of 18 and a 12-million-dollar budget while coordinating cross-specialty projects. My strong attention to detail is why I never exceeded budget.”
  • “While working at Cyberdyne Systems, I was part of the customer service team, consisting of nine of us, striving to improve our response time. Through collaboration and sharing of best practices, we reduced our average response time from 48 to 12 business hours, resulting in a 35% improvement in customer feedback ratings.”

 

These examples of tangible answers provide employers with what they most want to hear from candidates but rarely do; what value the candidate will bring to the company. Typically, job seekers present their skills, experience, and unsubstantiated opinions and expect recruiters and employers to figure out their value, which is a lazy practice.

Getting hired isn’t based on “I have an MBA in Marketing and Sales,” “I’ve been a web designer for over 15 years,” “I’m young, beautiful and energetic,” blah, blah, blah. Likewise, being rejected isn’t based on “I’m overqualified,” “I’m too old,” “I don’t have enough education,” blah, blah, blah. Getting hired depends entirely on showing employers that you can add value and substance to their company; that you’ll serve a purpose.

When you articulate a solid value offer, the “blah, blah, blah” doesn’t matter. Job seekers focus too much on the “blah, blah, blah,” and when not hired, they say, “It’s not me, it’s…” The biggest mistake I see job seekers make is focusing on the “blah, blah, blah”—their experience and education—believing this is what interests employers. Hiring managers are more interested in whether you can solve the problems the position exists to solve than in your education and experience.

 

Not impressive: Education

Impressive: A track record of achieving tangible results.

 

You aren’t who you say you are; you are what you do.

 

If you want to be somebody who works hard, you have to actually work hard. If you want to be somebody who goes to the gym, you actually have to go to the gym. If you want to be a good friend, spouse, or colleague, you have to actually be a good friend, spouse, or colleague. Actions build reputations, not words.

The biggest challenge job seekers face today is differentiating themselves. To stand out and be memorable, don’t be like most job seekers, someone who’s all talk and no action. Any recruiter or hiring manager will tell you that the job market is heavily populated with job seekers who talk themselves up, talk a “good game” about everything they can “supposedly” do, drop names, etc., but have nothing to show for it.

More than ever, employers want to hear candidates offer a value proposition summarizing what value they bring. If you’re looking for a low-hanging fruit method to differentiate yourself, do what job seekers hardly ever do and make a hard-to-ignore value proposition.

  1. Increase sales: “Based on my experience managing Regina and Saskatoon for PharmaKorp, I’m confident that I can increase BioGen’s sales by no less than 25% in Winnipeg and the surrounding area by the end of 2025.”
  2. Reduce cost: “During my 12 years as Taco Town’s head of purchasing, I renegotiated contracts with key suppliers, resulting in 15% cost savings, saving the company over $450,000 annually. I know I can do the same for The Pasta House.”
  3. Increase customer satisfaction:“During my time at Globex Corporation, I established a systematic feedback mechanism that enabled customers to share their experiences. This led to targeted improvements, increasing our Net Promoter Score by 15 points. I can increase Dunder Mifflin’s net promoter score.”
  4. Save time: “As Zap Delivery’s dispatcher, I implemented advanced routing software that analyzed traffic patterns, reducing average delivery times by 20%. My implementation of this software at Froggy’s Delivery can reduce your delivery times by at least 20%, if not more.”

 

If you want to achieve job search success as soon as possible, structure your job search with a single thread that’s evident and consistent throughout your résumé, LinkedIn profile, cover letters and especially during interviews; clearly convey what difference you’ll make to the employer.

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Nick Kossovan, a well-seasoned veteran of the corporate landscape, offers “unsweetened” job search advice. You can send Nick your questions to artoffindingwork@gmail.com.

Continue Reading

Business

Netflix’s subscriber growth slows as gains from password-sharing crackdown subside

Published

5 days ago

 on

October 17, 2024

By

 

Netflix on Thursday reported that its subscriber growth slowed dramatically during the summer, a sign the huge gains from the video-streaming service’s crackdown on freeloading viewers is tapering off.

The 5.1 million subscribers that Netflix added during the July-September period represented a 42% decline from the total gained during the same time last year. Even so, the company’s revenue and profit rose at a faster pace than analysts had projected, according to FactSet Research.

Netflix ended September with 282.7 million worldwide subscribers — far more than any other streaming service.

The Los Gatos, California, company earned $2.36 billion, or $5.40 per share, a 41% increase from the same time last year. Revenue climbed 15% from a year ago to $9.82 billion. Netflix management predicted the company’s revenue will rise at the same 15% year-over-year pace during the October-December period, slightly than better than analysts have been expecting.

The strong financial performance in the past quarter coupled with the upbeat forecast eclipsed any worries about slowing subscriber growth. Netflix’s stock price surged nearly 4% in extended trading after the numbers came out, building upon a more than 40% increase in the company’s shares so far this year.

The past quarter’s subscriber gains were the lowest posted in any three-month period since the beginning of last year. That drop-off indicates Netflix is shifting to a new phase after reaping the benefits from a ban on the once-rampant practice of sharing account passwords that enabled an estimated 100 million people watch its popular service without paying for it.

The crackdown, triggered by a rare loss of subscribers coming out of the pandemic in 2022, helped Netflix add 57 million subscribers from June 2022 through this June — an average of more than 7 million per quarter, while many of its industry rivals have been struggling as households curbed their discretionary spending.

Netflix’s gains also were propelled by a low-priced version of its service that included commercials for the first time in its history. The company still is only getting a small fraction of its revenue from the 2-year-old advertising push, but Netflix is intensifying its focus on that segment of its business to help boost its profits.

In a letter to shareholder, Netflix reiterated previous cautionary notes about its expansion into advertising, though the low-priced option including commercials has become its fastest growing segment.

“We have much more work to do improving our offering for advertisers, which will be a priority over the next few years,” Netflix management wrote in the letter.

As part of its evolution, Netflix has been increasingly supplementing its lineup of scripted TV series and movies with live programming, such as a Labor Day spectacle featuring renowned glutton Joey Chestnut setting a world record for gorging on hot dogs in a showdown with his longtime nemesis Takeru Kobayashi.

Netflix will be trying to attract more viewer during the current quarter with a Nov. 15 fight pitting former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson against Jake Paul, a YouTube sensation turned boxer, and two National Football League games on Christmas Day.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

All Magic Spells (TM) : Top Converting Magic Spell eCommerce Store

Published

5 days ago

 on

October 17, 2024

By

Product Name: All Magic Spells (TM) : Top Converting Magic Spell eCommerce Store

Click here to get All Magic Spells (TM) : Top Converting Magic Spell eCommerce Store at discounted price while it’s still available…

All orders are protected by SSL encryption – the highest industry standard for online security from trusted vendors.

All Magic Spells (TM) : Top Converting Magic Spell eCommerce Store is backed with a 60 Day No Questions Asked Money Back Guarantee. If within the first 60 days of receipt you are not satisfied with Wake Up Lean™, you can request a refund by sending an email to the address given inside the product and we will immediately refund your entire purchase price, with no questions asked.

(more…)

Continue Reading

Trending

Exit mobile version