Old economy drags base metals lower in first half of 2023 | Canada News Media
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Old economy drags base metals lower in first half of 2023

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China’s manufacturing sector contracted for the third straight month in June.

The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) came in at 49.0, a slight improvement on May but still below the 50-point mark that separates expansion from contraction.

The Caixin PMI, which is generated from surveys of smaller, more export-oriented companies, was slightly better at 50.5 but that was down from May levels.

Taken together, the PMIs suggest China’s giant factory sector is struggling to maintain its early-year momentum and base metals are paying the price.

The year started with high expectations of a super-charged Chinese rebound after last year’s stringent lockdowns but that has not happened.

Indeed, the weakness has extended beyond China with both Europe and the United States also experiencing manufacturing downturns.

The London Metal Exchange (LME) index of base metals has sunk from a January high of 4,356 to 3,704.

Prices would likely be lower still were it not for strong green demand channels and stubbornly low visible inventories.

OLD VS NEW ECONOMY

What happened to the metals super-cycle?

Actually, there is plenty of evidence that energy transition sectors such as grid investment are doing just fine.

China’s spend on its national power network declined marginally during 2015-2020, but 2021 marked a turnaround with investment rising further in 2022 and the pace accelerating this year, according to analysts at Citi.

Grid spending rose by 11% over the first five months of 2023 and was the highest January-May investment since 2017, Citi notes.

This should be good news for metals such as copper and aluminum.

The problem is that green demand channels are doing no more than offsetting long-running weakness in China’s property sector, which has been the prime driver of the country’s metals demand for more than a decade.

The impact of China’s property woes is evident in soft iron ore and ferrous markets, steel products such as rebar being particularly exposed to reduced construction activity.

RELATIVE WEAKNESS

Only one core LME metal bucked the generally weaker trend in the first half of the year.

Tin closed June at $26,787 per metric ton, up 7.5% on the start of January. Tin has been caught in another sharp squeeze, the cash premium over three-month metal <CMSN0-3> flexing out to $1,704 per metric ton in June, the widest it’s been since late 2021.

Copper was essentially unchanged at the end of last month relative to the start of the year and the other four constituents of the LME index all traded out June at lower levels.

Nickel and zinc were particularly hard hit, falling by 34% and 21% respectively over the first six months of 2023.

The two metals share a narrative of over-supply, although zinc has fallen to a level that is now causing real pain for some producers.

Sweden’s Boliden last month announced the suspension of operations at its Tara mine in Ireland due to what it called “tremendous unsustainable losses.”

Cost-curve considerations may limit zinc’s downside from here but are unlikely to do the same for nickel, which is being weighed down by a surge of new Indonesian production capacity.

Not that you would know it from LME nickel stocks, which fell by 16,872 metric tons, or 32%, over the first six months of 2023.

Nickel’s problem is that Indonesia’s production surge is in a form of the metal that is not deliverable to either the LME or the Shanghai Futures Exchange.

The betting is that the explosion of Class II production will eventually spill over into the market for Class I metal that is traded on both exchanges. The exact timing of that cross-over remains a key talking-point in the nickel market.

LOW STOCKS

It’s not just nickel that is trading in a low stocks environment.

LME copper stocks also fell by 18,850 metric tons over the first half of the year to 69,700 metric tons, half of which is canceled and awaiting physical load-out.

Both zinc and lead have recently seen more arrivals in the LME warehouse system but the increases have been modest and not yet enough to generate a sustained rebuild in inventory from what have been extremely depleted levels.

Indeed, LME zinc stocks have seen heightened cancellation activity over the last couple of weeks with 20% of registered inventory now awaiting load-out.

Total LME inventory of all metals rose by 124,000 metric tons over the first six months of 2023, largely reflecting a 94,000-metric ton net build in aluminum inventory.

However, open tonnage rose by a more modest 91,500 metric tons, attesting to the continued high cancellation rates seen in several of the core base metal contracts.

Exchange inventory remains a key contrarian signal in the broader recessionary environment and is deterring more aggressive bear plays.

All the LME core metals with the single exception of nickel have experienced time-spread tightness at some stage this year,

WAITING FOR CHINA … AGAIN

Industrial metals, it seems, can’t yet break free from their dependence on China’s old-economy drivers such as property and exports.

Even super-bull Goldman Sachs has been forced to temper its price forecasts in the face of what threatens to be a synchronized downturn in global manufacturing activity.

“The potential for sustained bullish momentum in prices will likely be tied to an improvement in China activity data momentum,” the bank said in a May 23 research note.

Which leaves metal markets hoping, once again, that China’s policymakers will dial up the infrastructure spend to escape the current low-growth trap.

The green super-cycle may be starting to take shape but isn’t yet strong enough for metals to reach escape velocity from the old industrial cycle.

 

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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