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Olympic medals: An alternative table – with US 15th – BBC News

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The Olympics medals table was again dominated by the biggest countries like the US, which finished top. But how would the table look if population and wealth were taken into account?

When it comes to counting the medal spoils, there is a strong sense of deja vu. Every four years, the same few countries wrack up medal after medal – the US, China, Russia – and Tokyo 2020 was no different.

The US won 113 medals total, including 39 golds, the most of any country.

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So what makes countries like the US dominate, while others lag behind? Economists and data nerds have a few theories.

“It’s still loud and clear from the patterns that what matters is population, level of income, and political system,” says David Forrest, an economist at the University of Liverpool who researches Olympic predictions.

Population matters, Mr Forrest says, because the bigger the pool of athletes, the more likely it is for a country to produce true competitors.

“It’s clear that very few people who are born have got the potential to be a world-class athlete,” he says.

Take a country like Luxembourg, which has a population of 633,622. It sent 12 athletes to compete in seven sports, and won no medals. Meanwhile the US, which has the third-largest population in the world, sent 613 athletes to compete in 35 sports and took home more medals than any other country.

Some countries over-perform, given their population size. The BBC came up with an alternative ranking, which looked at the number of medals won per million people. In this scenario, the tiny European nation of San Marino, with a population of just over 33,000, comes out on top, even though it earned only three medals. The US didn’t even crack the top 20, coming in at 60th place.

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But population, by itself, is not enough to guarantee a country sweeps the podium.

“If a country is very poor, it won’t have the resources to convert that potential into actual ability to compete on a world stage,” he says.

“They’ve got to have the ability to participate in sport in the first place. For example, they might have a great natural ability in swimming that is waiting to be developed – but actually there won’t be any swimming pools.”

When poorer countries do win, they tend to win at sports that are lower-cost, like wrestling, he says, while wealthy countries outperform in expensive sports like equestrian and sailing.

When taking into account the average national wealth per person, China and Russia (numbers two and three in total medals) actually did better than the US. Under these alternate rankings, China comes in first, and Russia second, with Kenya coming in third place.

The US, normally top dog, lagged behind at number 15.

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There are cultural and political factors too. Mr Forrest says that countries that used to belong to the Soviet Union tend to have an advantage, because of the strong sports infrastructure that was established by communist regimes.

Commonwealth countries also tend to do better than expected compared to their size and wealth. Mr Forrest believes that’s because Britain was a pioneer in developing sport as we know it today, and brought that enthusiasm for athletic competition with them around the world.

Australia, which often cracks the top-10 for total medal count, is a prime example.

The sports a country chooses to compete in matter too.

In India, cricket is the national sport but is not played at the Olympics. India also does tend to excel at hockey, which is played at the Olympics, but that only yields a maximum of two medals, one for men and one for women. Whereas sports competed by an individual, such as gymnastics, swimming and athletics, can yield several per athlete.

“In general, it doesn’t do you a lot of good to be keen on team sports,” Mr Forrest says.

Simon Greave, head of sport analyses at data company Neilsen Gracenote, says it’s these myriad factors that make predicting Olympic medal counts tricky. If you just use variables like population and GDP per capita, you tend to underestimate some of the country’s top performers.

Past performance, he says, is a much better predictor of who will do well – but that’s still only a rough estimate.

“What you won’t pick up is countries that are improving fast or declining fast, and I think that’s the interesting part in all of this,” he tells the BBC.

To better gauge the Olympic winners, Mr Greave takes into account not only past athletic performance, but how each country has done at other international sporting competitions since the last Olympic games.

Taking that into account, he predicted that India would actually have its best year yet, which it did, finishing 33rd in terms of most medals won. That smashed its previous record of 51st, from 2008.

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Vancouver Canucks winger Joshua set for season debut after cancer treatment

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November 14, 2024

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Vancouver Canucks winger Dakota Joshua is set to make his season debut Thursday after missing time for cancer treatment.

Head coach Rick Tocchet says Joshua will slot into the lineup Thursday when Vancouver (8-3-3) hosts the New York Islanders.

The 28-year-old from Dearborn, Mich., was diagnosed with testicular cancer this summer and underwent surgery in early September.

He spoke earlier this month about his recovery, saying it had been “very hard to go through” and that he was thankful for support from his friends, family, teammates and fans.

“That was a scary time but I am very thankful and just happy to be in this position still and be able to go out there and play,,” Joshua said following Thursday’s morning skate.

The cancer diagnosis followed a career season where Joshua contributed 18 goals and 14 assists across 63 regular-season games, then added four goals and four assists in the playoffs.

Now, he’s ready to focus on contributing again.

“I expect to be good, I don’t expect a grace period. I’ve been putting the work in so I expect to come out there and make an impact as soon as possible,” he said.

“I don’t know if it’s going to be perfect right from the get-go, but it’s about putting your best foot forward and working your way to a point of perfection.”

The six-foot-three, 206-pound Joshua signed a four-year, US$13-million contract extension at the end of June.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 14, 2024.

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PWHL MVP Spooner set to miss start of season for Toronto Sceptres due to knee injury

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November 12, 2024

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TORONTO – Reigning PWHL MVP and scoring champ Natalie Spooner will miss the start of the regular season for the Toronto Sceptres, general manager Gina Kingsbury announced Tuesday on the first day of training camp.

The 33-year-old Spooner had knee surgery on her left anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) after she was checked into the boards by Minnesota’s Grace Zumwinkle in Game 3 of their best-of-five semifinal series on May 13.

She had a goal and an assist in three playoff games but did not finish the series. Toronto was up 2-1 in the semifinal at that time and eventually fell 3-2 in the series.

Spooner led the PWHL with 27 points in 24 games. Her 20 goals, including five game-winners, were nine more than the closest skater.

Kingsbury said there is no timeline, as the team wants the Toronto native at 100 per cent, but added that “she is doing really well” in her recovery.

The Sceptres open the PWHL season on Nov. 30 when they host the Boston Fleet.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

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Champions Trophy host Pakistan says it’s not been told India wants to play cricket games elsewhere

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November 8, 2024

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LAHORE, Pakistan (AP) — A top official of the Pakistan Cricket Board declined Friday to confirm media reports that India has decided against playing any games in host Pakistan during next year’s Champions Trophy.

“My view is if there’s any problems, they (India) should tell us in writing,” PCB chairman Mohsin Naqvi told reporters in Lahore. “I’ll share that with the media as well as with the government as soon as I get such a letter.”

Indian media reported Friday that the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) has communicated its concerns to all the Champions Trophy stakeholders, including the PCB, over the Feb. 19-March 9 tournament and would not play in arch-rival Pakistan.

The Times of India said that “Dubai is a strong candidate to host the fixtures involving the Men in Blue” for the 50-over tournament.

Such a solution would see Pakistan having to travel to a neutral venue to play India in a group match, with another potential meeting later in the tournament if both teams advanced from their group. The final is scheduled for March 9 in Pakistan with the specific venue not yet decided.

“Our stance is clear,” Naqvi said. “They need to give us in writing any objections they may have. Until now, no discussion of the hybrid model has happened, nor are we prepared to accept one.”

Pakistan hosted last year’s Asia Cup but all India games were played in Sri Lanka under a hybrid model for the tournament. Only months later Pakistan did travel to India for the 50-over World Cup.

Political tensions have stopped bilateral cricket between the two nations since 2008 and they have competed in only multi-nation tournaments, including ICC World Cups.

“Cricket should be free of politics,” Naqvi said. “Any sport should not be entangled with politics. Our preparations for the Champions Trophy will continue unabated, and this will be a successful event.”

The PCB has already spent millions of dollars on the upgrade of stadiums in Karachi, Lahore and Rawalpindi which are due to host 15 Champions Trophy games. Naqvi hoped all the three stadiums will be ready over the next two months.

“Almost every country wants the Champions Trophy to be played here (in Pakistan),” Naqvi said. “I don’t think anyone should make this a political matter, and I don’t expect they will. I expect the tournament will be held at the home of the official hosts.”

Eight countries – Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, England, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand and Afghanistan – are due to compete in the tournament, the schedule of which is yet to be announced by the International Cricket Council.

“Normally the ICC announces the schedule of any major tournament 100 days before the event, and I hope they will announce it very soon,” Naqvi said.

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