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(Bloomberg) — China’s Winter Olympics may be more of a drag on Beijing’s regional economy than a boost, as virus flare-ups and pollution curbs weigh on consumer and industrial activity.
The investment was expected to bring long-term benefits to the region. Ticketing revenue was estimated at the time to reach $118 million, which is unlikely to be recovered now.
(Bloomberg) — China’s Winter Olympics may be more of a drag on Beijing’s regional economy than a boost, as virus flare-ups and pollution curbs weigh on consumer and industrial activity.
A ban on public spectators means there won’t be the usual bump up in tourism and consumption that a city hopes to gain from hosting the international games. Tighter controls to contain the outbreaks of two virus variants are keeping holidaymakers away. And restrictions on polluting industries to ensure there are clear skies over the capital during the games means steel plants are curbing output.
“The Winter Olympics will affect industrial production and infrastructure construction in the first quarter,” said Lu Ting, chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. “It won’t boost consumption either because of virus outbreaks.”
Beijing is battling a growing cluster of coronavirus infections, which rose to 96 cases since mid-January. It’s the last thing authorities want in the face of a world event, especially with its resolution to maintain a Covid Zero strategy.
The outbreak prompted authorities to decide not to sell Olympics tickets to the general public but only allow certain invited spectators to watch the game. Athletes and staff, on the other hand, will be moving within a vast bubble of transportation, accommodation and venues.
The games, which are jointly held in Beijing and the adjacent city of Zhangjiakou in Hebei province, will run from Feb. 4 to 20. The Winter Paralympics will follow from March 3 to 13.
To contain the recent flare-up, the city has put in place more stringent virus control measures, such as requiring residents who buy anti-fever medicine to get Covid tests and increasing the testing of inbound travelers.
Eric Zhu, a China economist at Bloomberg Economics, said Beijing is likely to keep restrictions largely in place through the first quarter, given the Winter Paralympics and the annual national legislative sessions scheduled in March. That will continue to dent the already-struggling tourism and service sectors, he wrote in a report.
In addition, cities around Beijing have curbed the output of industries like steel, in order to improve air quality in the capital. That’s after the Ministry of Ecology and Environment expanded the annual winter campaign to improve air quality to over 60 cities this year from the 28 cities previously.
Each of these cities, spanning from the eastern province of Shandong to the central province of Shanxi, have targets to meet in terms of the level of PM2.5 particles in the air and the number of clear air days.
“I expect some mild disruptions to industrial production from factory closures ahead of Winter Olympics, but the overall impact to growth may be temporary and limited,” said Liu Peiqian, China economist at NatWest Group Plc.
The positive effects of the games may only be evident over the longer term. It could help China achieve its ambitious target of making sports into a 5 trillion yuan ($786 billion) industry by 2025, a 70% increase from 2019 levels. Authorities say they’ve already more than met their target of involving 300 million Chinese in skiing, hockey and other cold-weather pastimes.
“Similar to Tokyo’s Summer Games, the timing of global sport events are less than ideal due to the pandemic,” said Raymond Yeung, chief economist for Greater China at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “However, such an event is seen to spark a ‘white economy’ meaning that more people will be interested in winter sports domestically. That’s the long term benefit to the economy.”
China had estimated in 2014 the Winter Olympics and the Paralympics would cost $1.56 billion in operational spending, according to a report from the International Olympic Committee. The city budgeted for capital investment of $1.51 billion, with 65% funded by the private sector and 35% by various levels of government.
The investment was expected to bring long-term benefits to the region. Ticketing revenue was estimated at the time to reach $118 million, which is unlikely to be recovered now.
The economic drag of the games will likely be temporary and probably won’t result in any significant impact on China’s first-half growth, Nomura’s Lu said.
“Unfortunately it won’t drive consumption demand this time because of the pandemic,” he said. “Overall, there is some short-term impact, but don’t exaggerate the impact on the first half and full year.”
©2022 Bloomberg L.P.
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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