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Omicron Severity Seen Masked by Prior 72% Case Rate in South Africa – BNN

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(Bloomberg) — Leading scientists cautioned that the level of immunity against the coronavirus among South Africa’s population due to earlier infections may be masking the severity of illness caused by the omicron variant.

Since the discovery of the variant in South Africa and Botswana was announced on Nov. 25, hospitalization rates in South Africa have risen, though at a much slower pace than in previous waves, even as cases are rising more rapidly. The number of deaths has also been lower.

A recent seroprevalence survey in Gauteng, the South African province where the omicron variant was first identified, showed that 72% of the population had a previous infection with the coronavirus, said Shabir Madhi, a vaccinologist at the University of the Witwatersrand. That compares with about 20% when the beta variant emerged a year ago, said Madhi, who led trials of both AstraZeneca Plc’s and Novavax Inc.’s shots in South Africa.

“The evolution of the omicron variant is coming at a very different stage of the pandemic,” Madhi said in an interview with the Global Health Crisis Coordination Center. “That is important to keep at the back of our minds when we see what is unfolding in South Africa and what we might see in other settings, which might have a very different epidemiology.”

Unnoticed Infections

Official statistics don’t reflect the extent of the pandemic’s impact on South Africa, with just 3.2 million positive tests and about 90,000 deaths. Excess deaths, a measure of mortality compared with a historical average, show that about 275,000 people may have died from the disease.

The disparity between official statistics and the likely extent of infections is more pronounced in South Africa, though not unique. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control estimates that over the course of the pandemic until September, there were 146.6 million infections and 921,000 deaths as a result of Covid-19. Official statistics show more than 50 million infections and 799,000 deaths.

Madhi’s hypothesis is backed up by other scientists. 

“You have large pockets of population immunity,” Tulio de Oliveira, who runs two gene-sequencing institutes in South Africa, said in an interview with CBS News on Dec. 12. “We’re going to have to tease apart if the mild cases are due to young people getting infected or if the previous population immunity from infection and vaccination are responsible for decreasing the number of hospitalized individuals.”

‘Natural Immunity’

About 6,000 people are in the hospital in South Africa with Covid-19, about a third of the number at the peak of the second and third waves of infection. Current daily cases are close to record levels.

“That could really be due to the fact that immunity in the country is high either from natural immunity, from past infection, or from vaccinations,” Barry Schoub, chairman of South Africa’s Ministerial Advisory Council on Vaccines, said in an interview with Sky News.

Of South Africa’s 60 million people, about 26% are fully vaccinated. That compares with 70% in the U.K.

While omicron has, in early studies, shown that it can evade antibodies produced by vaccinations or previous infections more easily than previous variants, Madhi says immunity may stem from protection by T-Cells, which kill infected cells.

“In South Africa, there is seemingly significant population protection against severe Covid due to underpinning T-cell immunity, despite omicron being antibody evasive,” he said by text message. 

Beta Variant

South Africa’s experience with omicron may once again raise the concept of so-called herd immunity, whereby enough of the population has been vaccinated or had a previous infection to blunt the impact of waves of infection. Still, the ability of the coronavirus to mutate and the different paths the pandemic has taken around the world may make that elusive.

“The data coming from South Africa are indeed very encouraging,” said Sam Fazeli, senior pharmaceutical industry analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence.  “Let’s not forget that South Africa had a wave of infections with the beta variant, which was not seen elsewhere. This may make a difference to the response to omicron.”

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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How many Nova Scotians are on the doctor wait-list? Number hit 160,000 in June

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HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government says it could be months before it reveals how many people are on the wait-list for a family doctor.

The head of the province’s health authority told reporters Wednesday that the government won’t release updated data until the 160,000 people who were on the wait-list in June are contacted to verify whether they still need primary care.

Karen Oldfield said Nova Scotia Health is working on validating the primary care wait-list data before posting new numbers, and that work may take a matter of months. The most recent public wait-list figures are from June 1, when 160,234 people, or about 16 per cent of the population, were on it.

“It’s going to take time to make 160,000 calls,” Oldfield said. “We are not talking weeks, we are talking months.”

The interim CEO and president of Nova Scotia Health said people on the list are being asked where they live, whether they still need a family doctor, and to give an update on their health.

A spokesperson with the province’s Health Department says the government and its health authority are “working hard” to turn the wait-list registry into a useful tool, adding that the data will be shared once it is validated.

Nova Scotia’s NDP are calling on Premier Tim Houston to immediately release statistics on how many people are looking for a family doctor. On Tuesday, the NDP introduced a bill that would require the health minister to make the number public every month.

“It is unacceptable for the list to be more than three months out of date,” NDP Leader Claudia Chender said Tuesday.

Chender said releasing this data regularly is vital so Nova Scotians can track the government’s progress on its main 2021 campaign promise: fixing health care.

The number of people in need of a family doctor has more than doubled between the 2021 summer election campaign and June 2024. Since September 2021 about 300 doctors have been added to the provincial health system, the Health Department said.

“We’ll know if Tim Houston is keeping his 2021 election promise to fix health care when Nova Scotians are attached to primary care,” Chender said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Newfoundland and Labrador monitoring rise in whooping cough cases: medical officer

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – Newfoundland and Labrador‘s chief medical officer is monitoring the rise of whooping cough infections across the province as cases of the highly contagious disease continue to grow across Canada.

Dr. Janice Fitzgerald says that so far this year, the province has recorded 230 confirmed cases of the vaccine-preventable respiratory tract infection, also known as pertussis.

Late last month, Quebec reported more than 11,000 cases during the same time period, while Ontario counted 470 cases, well above the five-year average of 98. In Quebec, the majority of patients are between the ages of 10 and 14.

Meanwhile, New Brunswick has declared a whooping cough outbreak across the province. A total of 141 cases were reported by last month, exceeding the five-year average of 34.

The disease can lead to severe complications among vulnerable populations including infants, who are at the highest risk of suffering from complications like pneumonia and seizures. Symptoms may start with a runny nose, mild fever and cough, then progress to severe coughing accompanied by a distinctive “whooping” sound during inhalation.

“The public, especially pregnant people and those in close contact with infants, are encouraged to be aware of symptoms related to pertussis and to ensure vaccinations are up to date,” Newfoundland and Labrador’s Health Department said in a statement.

Whooping cough can be treated with antibiotics, but vaccination is the most effective way to control the spread of the disease. As a result, the province has expanded immunization efforts this school year. While booster doses are already offered in Grade 9, the vaccine is now being offered to Grade 8 students as well.

Public health officials say whooping cough is a cyclical disease that increases every two to five or six years.

Meanwhile, New Brunswick’s acting chief medical officer of health expects the current case count to get worse before tapering off.

A rise in whooping cough cases has also been reported in the United States and elsewhere. The Pan American Health Organization issued an alert in July encouraging countries to ramp up their surveillance and vaccination coverage.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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