Even among unvaccinated cases, the risk of ending up in hospital was 70 per cent lower, and the risk of death 80 per cent lower, if infected with Omicron
Publishing date:
Mar 17, 2022 • 14 hours ago • 5 minute read • 90 Comments
A massive studying involving more than 1.5 million COVID infections in England provides “clear evidence” Omicron is less deadly than Delta, British scientists are reporting — evidence they say bolsters the case for dropping COVID restrictions.
After adjusting for age and other factors, people with Omicron had a 59 per cent lower risk of being admitted to hospital, and a 69 per cent lower risk of dying, compared to people infected with Delta.
The risk of hospitalization was significantly higher for the unvaccinated. But even among unvaccinated cases, the risk of ending up in hospital was 70 per cent lower, and the risk of death 80 per cent lower, if infected with Omicron compared to unvaccinated people infected with Delta, compelling evidence, the researchers said, that Omicron is intrinsically less severe than Delta.
Vaccines were somewhat less effective at keeping people with breakthrough Omicron infections out of hospital compared to breakthrough Delta cases. But the risk of hospitalization was much higher for the unvaccinated, and the boosted were the most protected: Those vaccinated with three doses were 80 per cent less likely to be admitted to hospital or die than the unvaccinated.
Omicron’s reduced severity “will make the goal of living with COVID-19 in the absence of socially and economically disruptive public health interventions substantially easier to achieve at the current time,” the researchers wrote in The Lancet.
“Interestingly, how much severity is reduced varies by age, with the greatest reduction in severity seen in 50- to 70-year-olds, and a smaller reduction in younger and older age groups,” Imperial College London’s Neil Ferguson, one of the authors, said in a statement. In November, when Omicron was beginning its surge, Imperial College researchers said there was no evidence it was less deadly than Delta, and that Omicron’s ability to elude some protection from a previous infection or vaccination could mean the variant posed a “major, imminent threat to public health.”
That was based on early and limited data at the time. The latest analysis showing a substantial drop in severity “has undoubtedly made it easier for countries to end pandemic restrictions than might otherwise have been the case,” Ferguson said.
Across Canada, provinces are phasing out masking and vaccine mandates. Dancing in bars is now on again in Prince Edward Island. New Brunswick has ditched all distancing rules. As of April 1, vaccinated travellers will no longer need to show a COVID-19 test to enter Canada, the federal government announced Thursday.
There’s no guarantee a future variant won’t be more virulent, Ferguson and his colleagues cautioned. Omicron’s sibling, the BA.2 subvariant now driving record case counts and deaths in some parts of the world, is on its way to becoming dominant across Canada. About half of confirmed new COVID-19 cases in the country are BA.2, Sarah Otto, a professor of evolutionary virology at the University of British Columbia told the Ottawa Citizen’s Elizabeth Payne this week.
BA.2 is 30 per cent more transmissible, Eric Topol, founder and director of the of the Scripps Research Translational Institute wrote on Twitter, “and more when you add in lack of restrictions and waning immunity.” Its transmissibility is what’s driving resurgences. “Fortunately, it’s not more virulent, and three shots protect well” against hospitalization and death, Topol said.
A separate analysis by the U.K. Health Security Agency has found no evidence people with BA.2 are more likely to end up in hospital.
In Ontario, COVID case counts, hospitalizations and ICU admissions have stopped falling. With mask and vaccine mandates lifting, hospital and ICU numbers will likely increase, the province’s COVID-19 science advisory table said in a report released Thursday, though not close to the levels seen in January.
As of Thursday, 644 people were in Ontario hospitals with COVID-19, and a modelling graph suggests there could be fewer than 900 at a peak in early May — a far cry from the more than 4,000 people in hospital with COVID in January.
It’s likely there are currently between 15,000 and 20,000 new COVID-19 cases each day in the province, the science table wrote, and that as many as four million people have been infected since December.
Ontario is confident it has the capacity to provide care for those who need it. “Ontario has done significantly better than the best-case scenario provided in the last modelling, and we now have the lowest rate of hospitalizations out of all provinces,” said Alexandra Hilkene, press secretary for Health Minister Christine Elliott. The province’s hospitals “can manage any range in these latest projections,” she said.
In the Lancet study, only adults had significantly reduced risk of ending up in hospital with Omicron compared to Delta cases. Among children under the age of 10, the risk of hospitalization was similar for both variants.
“Does this mean Omicron is severe for kids? Not necessarily,” tweeted epidemiologist Meaghan Kall, one of the authors of the report.
“In young kids, hospitalization doesn’t always equal more severe disease, as the threshold for admission is low,” Kall, of the U.K. Health Security Agency, said. Lab studies have shown Omicron replicates more in the upper airway cells and less in the lungs. Omicron seems to cause more upper respiratory and fever symptoms in kids, “which can trigger precautionary admission,” Kall said.
The study was based on just over 1.5 million COVID-19 cases, of whom one million were infected with Omicron. The data provide “clear evidence that Omicron is less severe than Delta, as the analysis accounted for immunity from vaccine and prior infection,” Kall said.
A related commentary said that while a person’s individual risk for hospitalization or death is lower for Omicron than for Delta, the “worst SARS-CoV-2 variant on record,” Omicron’s sheer contagiousness, its ability to spread easily and fast, led to record levels of cases globally “that led to record numbers of hospitalizations in some countries, such as the USA.”
National Post, with additional reporting by The Canadian Press
23 April 2024 — The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that the ongoing spread of avian influenza poses a “significant public health concern” and urged health authorities, especially in the US, to closely monitor infections in cows. However, the US FDA maintains that the virus is not currently a concern to consumer health and downplayed its impact on commercial milk production.
Earlier this month, the largest producer of fresh eggs in the US halted production at a Texas plant after bird flu was detected in its chickens. Cal-Maine Foods said that about 3.6% of its total flock was destroyed after the infection.
However, the virus, also known as H5N1, has now been found in at least 26 dairy herds across eight US states, marking the first time this strain of bird flu has been detected in cattle, according to officials.
At least 21 states have restricted cattle importations from states where the virus is known to have infected dairy cows.
The US Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service strongly recommends minimizing the movement of cattle, but has not issued federal quarantine orders.
Public health threat
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) confirmed this month that a dairy worker in Texas, who reportedly had exposure to dairy cattle presumed to have had avian influenza, contracted the virus and is now recovering.
“This infection does not change the H5N1 bird flu human health risk assessment for the US general public, which CDC considers to be low,” the agency said in a press release, while acknowledging that people who come into more frequent contact with possibly infected birds or other mammals have a higher risk.
Meanwhile, WHO’s chief scientist, Dr. Jeremy Farrar, told reporters recently in Geneva, Switzerland, that H5N1 has had an “extremely high” mortality rate among the several hundred people known to have been infected with it to date.
US health officials have downplayed the impact of bird flu on food safety and industry production.However, no human-to-human H5N1 transmission has yet been recorded.
“H5N1 is an influenza infection, predominantly started in poultry and ducks and has spread effectively over the course of the last one or two years to become a global zoonotic — animal — pandemic,” said Farrar.
“The great concern, of course, is that in doing so and infecting ducks and chickens — but now increasingly mammals — the virus now evolves and develops the ability to infect humans.
“And then critically, the ability to go from human-to-human transmission.”
Concerns with cattle
US health officials have stressed that bird flu’s risk to the public is low, and the country’s food supply remains safe and stable.
“At this time, there continues to be no concern that this circumstance poses a risk to consumer health or that it affects the safety of the interstate commercial milk supply,” the FDA said in a statement.
According to officials, farmers are being urged to test cows that show symptoms of infection and separate them from the herd, where they usually recover within two weeks.
US producers are not permitted to sell milk from sick cows, while milk sold across state lines must be pasteurized or heat-treated to kill viruses, including influenza.
A dairy worker in Texas reportedly contracted the virus after exposure to cattle.
“We firmly believe that pasteurization provides a safe milk supply,” Tracey Forfa, director of the FDA’s Center for Veterinary Medicine, told a webinar audience last week.
However, WHO’s Farrar has urged further caution by public health authorities “because it [the virus] may evolve into transmitting in different ways.”
“Do the milking structures of cows create aerosols? Is it the environment which they’re living in? Is it the transport system that is spreading this around the country?” he said.
“This is a huge concern, and I think we have to…make sure that if H5N1 did come across to humans with human-to-human transmission that we were in a position to immediately respond with access equitably to vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics.”
According to a new European Food Safety Authority report, outbreaks of avian influenza continue to spread in the EU and beyond.
By Joshua Poole
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York Region Public Health is reminding residents to keep up to date on their vaccinations as National Immunization Awareness Week begins.
The regional municipality said it is important to stay up to date on recommended vaccinations to ensure protection from contagious diseases. That includes updated COVID-19 vaccinations for vulnerable populations, recommended as part of a spring vaccination campaign.
“We know vaccines are safe and the best way to stay protected against vaccine-preventable disease,” the region said in a news release.
National Immunization Awareness Week runs from April 22 to 30, with this year’s theme being “Protect your future, get immunized.”
This spring, the region is still doing COVID-19 vaccinations. While walk-ins are no longer available as of April 2, you can book an appointment to visit a York Region clinic.
The spring COVID-19 vaccination campaign is aimed at more vulnerable groups who have received a COVID-19 vaccine before. Those include seniors, those living in seniors living facilities like long-term care homes, immunocompromised individuals and those in Indigenous households who are 55 or older. Public health also recommends the COVID-19 vaccine for those who have not yet received one.
York Region Public Health is also reminding residents of the need for other vaccines.
Measles cases have sprung up in Ontario and York Region recently. The region is recommending that people ensure they previously raised two valid doses of the measles vaccine. The region will also start providing measles vaccines April 29 for those overdue and for who do not have access to the vaccine through a health-care provider.
School-aged vaccinations are also available for free for children in junior kindergarten to Grade 12.
You can access immunization information at york.ca/immunziations or by contacting Access York at 1-877-464-9675.
“Vaccination helps protect everyone in our families, communities and schools,” the region said. “ By continuing to stay up to date on your immunizations, you help protect infants who are too young to be vaccinated and those not able to get vaccinated due to medical conditions.”
The World Health Organization (WHO) said the rising number of bird flu cases has raised “great concern” because it had an “extremely high” mortality rate among those who had been infected around the world.
The WHO’s data show that from 2003 through March 2024, a total of 889 worldwide human cases of H5N1 infection had been recorded in 23 countries, resulting in 463 deaths and a 52 percent mortality rate. The majority of deaths occurred in Southeast Asian countries and Egypt.
The most recent death was in Vietnam in late March, when a 21-year-old male without underlying conditions died of the infection after bird hunting. So far, cases in Europe and the United States have been mild.
Jeremy Farrar, chief scientist at the WHO, said recently that H5N1, predominantly started in poultry and ducks, “has spread effectively over the course of the last one or two years to become a global zoonotic — animal — pandemic”.
He said that the great concern is that the virus is increasingly infecting mammals and then develops the ability to infect humans. It would become critical if the virus develops the ability to “go from human-to-human transmission”, Farrar said.
In the past month, health officials have detected H5N1 in cows and goats from 29 dairy herds across eight states in the US, saying it is an alarming development because those livestock weren’t considered susceptible to H5N1.
The development worries health experts and officials because humans regularly come into contact with livestock on farms. In the US, there are only two recorded cases of human infection — one in 2022 and one in April this year in Texas. Both infected individuals worked in close proximity to livestock, but their symptoms were mild.
Wenqing Zhang, head of the WHO’s global influenza program, told the Daily Mail that “bird-to-cow, cow-to-cow and cow-to-bird transmission have also been registered during these current outbreaks, which suggest that the virus may have found other routes of transition than we previously understood”.
Zhang said that multiple herds of cow infections in the US states meant “a further step of the virus spillover to mammals”.
The virus has been found in raw milk, but the Texas Health Services department has said the cattle infections don’t present a concern for the commercial milk supply, as dairies are required to destroy milk from sick cows. In addition, pasteurization also kills the virus.
Darin Detwiler, a former food safety adviser to the Food and Drug Administration and the US Agriculture Department, said that Americans should avoid rare meat and runny eggs while the outbreak in cattle is going on to avoid the possibility of infection from those foods.
Nevertheless, both the WHO and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said that the risk the virus poses to the public is still low. Currently no human-to-human infection has been detected.
On the potential HN51 public health risk, Farrar cautioned that vaccine development was not “where we need to be”.
According to a report by Barron’s, under the current plan by the US Health and Human Services Department, if there is an H5N1 pandemic, the government would be able to supply a few hundred thousand doses within weeks, then 135 million within about four months.
People would need two doses of the shot to be fully protected. That means the US government would be able to inoculate about 68 million people — 20 percent — of 330 million in case of an outbreak.
The situation is being closely watched by scientists and health officials. Some experts said that a high mortality rate might not necessarily hold true in the event the virus became contagious among people.
“We may not see the level of mortality that we’re really concerned about,” Seema Lakdawala, a virologist at Emory University, told The New York Times. “Preexisting immunity to seasonal flu strains will provide some protection from severe disease.”
Agencies contributed to this story.
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