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On Politics: Biden Gets Out the Broom – Jimmys Post

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Good morning and welcome to On Politics, a daily political analysis of the 2020 elections based on reporting by New York Times journalists.

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  • Joe Biden took all three prizes in yesterday’s Democratic primaries, handily winning Florida, Illinois and Arizona. At a time when everything seems to be up in the air, it was a rare moment of clarity: Biden won decisive victories in three different parts of the country, putting him firmly on track to become the party’s presidential nominee.

  • Ohio had been scheduled to vote yesterday too, but its governor postponed the state’s primaries amid concerns over the coronavirus. Even in the three states that went forward, hundreds of polling places were closed after volunteers stayed home rather than risking their health at crowded voting sites.

  • In a close race, this could have contributed to disastrous ambiguities. (Remember Iowa? Imagine if those caucuses had taken place during a pandemic.) But the results on Tuesday were overwhelming enough that the winner was never in doubt. As of early this morning, Biden was up by double digits in each race, with a large lead in most key demographics, according to exit polls. He’s on pace to take home roughly twice as many pledged delegates as Bernie Sanders from Tuesday’s contests.

  • Sanders made no announcement Tuesday night about the future of his campaign — though things are looking pretty bleak right now. Instead, he gave a video address early in the evening that outlined how he would confront the coronavirus. Moments before primary results arrive is an unusual time for a policy speech, but Sanders called for increased access to virus testing, free health care and sending $2,000 a month to every family in the country.

  • The one group among which Biden continues to show consistent weakness is young people. Even in Florida, where he beat Sanders by well over two-to-one, Biden trailed by 13 points among voters under 45, according to exit polls. If he wants to win in November, Biden will need to ensure that young liberals — a key Democratic constituency — are willing to show up for him.

  • Biden appeared to acknowledge that in his victory speech Tuesday night. Speaking from his home in Wilmington, Del., he name-checked income inequality and climate change, and then made a direct appeal. “Let me say especially to the young voters who have been inspired by Senator Sanders: I hear you,” Biden said. “I know what’s at stake. I know what we have to do.”

  • Five states have now pushed back their primaries. Ohio, Georgia, Louisiana and Kentucky were joined on Tuesday by Maryland, which announced that it would move its primary to June 2.

  • In a small slice of good news for progressives on Tuesday night, Marie Newman upset Representative Dan Lipinski in a Democratic primary in Illinois. Lipinski’s opposition to abortion rights and the Affordable Care Act had made him deeply unpopular in his party.

  • Could Arizona vote for a Democrat in the general election, while Florida breaks for a Republican? Arizona hasn’t gone blue in a presidential election in over 20 years, whereas Florida has been consistently purple. But polls taken just before the primary suggest Arizona could tilt away from President Trump in November — while Florida is looking more favorable to him. In a Monmouth University poll of Arizona this week, Biden got 46 percent to Trump’s 43 percent in a head-to-head matchup. But in Florida, where a Univision poll showed that 54 percent of voters approved of the job Trump is doing, the results in a Trump-Biden head-to-head contest were virtually flipped: 48 percent for Trump, 45 percent for Biden.

A poll worker wore gloves for protection against the coronavirus outside a voting site at Woodmere Park in Venice, Fla.


Trump expressed support for an aggressive package to confront the coronavirus on Tuesday, announcing at a news conference that he would expand the availability of virus testing while endorsing a plan to send stimulus checks to all Americans.

Trump has spent weeks shifting his stance on the virus. At first he expressed doubt that it posed much of a threat, then he offered conflicting information in a nationally televised address — eliciting criticism from Republicans and Democrats alike.

But on Tuesday, the president appeared more committed to providing relief. In his remarks, he balanced his tendency to make bombastic promises with an apparently newfound desire to project calm. Trump even went out of his way to salute the efforts of Democrats, singling out Andrew Cuomo, the governor of New York, who spoke to the president on Tuesday about his state’s efforts to slow the virus’s spread.

“There’s great spirit, tremendous spirit, and I can say that for Republicans and Democrats,” Trump told reporters. “I can say that with respect to Governor Cuomo.”

As coronavirus legislation races through Congress, partisan politics have become scrambled. Republican lawmakers, eager to provide relief in an election year, are now endorsing social-aid packages that conservatives would usually consider anathema.

The Democratic-controlled House passed a bill this week that provides for paid leave, unemployment insurance, free coronavirus testing, and food and health care aid. But the Republican majority leader, Mitch McConnell, not typically known for his advocacy of big-ticket spending, said on Tuesday that he hoped the Senate would approve that bill before moving on to craft other legislation of “much larger proportions.”

The Trump administration appears to be on board, too. At Trump’s news conference on Tuesday, Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, advocated a $1 trillion piece of legislation, including $250 billion worth of checks for all Americans.


There’s not much of a campaign trail to speak of these days: The candidates are on lockdown because of the virus. Still, our reporters are closely watching all the race’s developments, and they’re in touch with people in and around the major Democratic campaigns.

After the results had been called last night, we checked in with reporters covering Biden and Sanders to get their take on how things are looking. Here’s Thomas Kaplan, who has been covering Biden:

Joe Biden’s campaign finished Tuesday night in a position that was almost unthinkable just a few weeks ago. He possesses a commanding delegate lead, he can point to a diverse coalition of voters who have turned out to support him, and he can increasingly turn his attention toward facing Trump in November.

It is a staggering turnaround: Just five weeks ago he finished in fifth place in New Hampshire, and now the primary race is all but over, with Biden on top. It was telling that his primary-night speech on Tuesday included an explicit appeal to supporters of Sanders. In the weeks to come, he faces the challenge of winning over progressive Democrats who have been wary of his candidacy — particularly young voters.

And here is Sydney Ember, our Sanders reporter:

Bernie Sanders and his advisers were considering his next steps on Wednesday morning after he suffered significant losses in the Florida, Illinois and Arizona primaries. As Biden continues to widen his delegate lead, some Sanders allies were beginning to acknowledge that his path to the Democratic nomination had become almost impossibly narrow — even as they recognized that he is singularly focused on keeping his political movement alive.

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Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.

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Here is the latest on the New Brunswick election

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The New Brunswick Liberal Party has won a majority government, and Susan Holt will become the first woman to lead the province.

Here’s the latest from election night. All times are ADT.

10:15 p.m.

The results of the New Brunswick election are in, and with virtually all of the ballots counted, the Liberals won 31 seats out of 49.

The Progressive Conservatives won 16 seats.

The Green Party won two.

Voter turnout was about 66 per cent.

10 p.m.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has congratulated New Brunswick Liberal Leader Susan Holt for her party’s victory in the provincial election.

Trudeau says on the X platform he’s looking forward to working with Holt to build more homes, protect the country’s two official languages, and improve health care.

9:48 p.m.

During her victory speech tonight in Fredericton, New Brunswick premier-designate Susan Holt thanked all the women who came before her.

Holt will become the first woman to lead the province after her party won a majority government in the New Brunswick election.

The Liberals are elected or leading in 31 of 49 ridings.

9:30 p.m.

Blaine Higgs says he will begin a transition to replace him as leader of the Progressive Conservatives.

After being in power for six years, the Tories lost the election to the Liberals.

Higgs, who lost his seat of Quispamsis, says, “My leadership days are over.”

9:17 p.m.

The Canadian Press is projecting that Blaine Higgs, leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick since 2016, has lost in the riding of Quispamsis.

Higgs, 70, has been premier of New Brunswick since 2018, and was first elected to the legislature in 2010.

8:45 p.m.

When asked about the election results, Progressive Conservative chief of staff Paul D’Astous says that over the last 18 months the party has had to contend with a number of caucus members who disagreed with its policy.

D’Astous says the Tories have also had to own what happened over the last six years, since they came to power in 2018, adding that the voters have spoken.

8:39 p.m.

The Canadian Press is projecting that David Coon, leader of the New Brunswick Green Party, has won the riding of Fredericton Lincoln.

Coon, 67, has been leader of the party since 2014, the year he was first elected to the legislature.

8:36 p.m.

The Canadian Press is projecting that the New Brunswick Liberal Party has won a majority government in the provincial election.

Party leader Susan Holt will become the first woman premier in the province’s history.

8:20 p.m.

Early returns show a number of close races across the province, with the Liberals off to an early lead.

Liberal campaign manager Katie Davey says the results will show whether party leader Susan Holt, a relative newcomer, was able to capture the attention and trust of the people of New Brunswick.

Davey says she believes voters have welcomed Holt and her message, which focused on pocketbook issues, especially health care.

8 p.m.

Polls have closed.

Eyes will be on a number of key ridings including Fredericton South-Silverwood, where Liberal Leader Susan Holt is vying for a seat; Saint John Harbour, which has been competitive between the Tories and Liberals in recent elections; and Moncton East, a redrawn Tory-held riding that the Liberals have targeted.

At dissolution, the Conservatives held 25 seats in the 49-seat legislature. The Liberals held 16 seats, the Greens had three, there was one Independent and there were four vacancies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

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A look at Susan Holt, Liberal premier-designate of New Brunswick

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FREDERICTON – A look at Susan Holt, premier-designate and leader of the New Brunswick Liberal party.

Born: April 22, 1977.

Early years: Raised in Fredericton, she attended Queen’s University in Kingston, Ont., and then spent a year in Toronto before moving abroad for three years, spending time in Australia and India.

Education: Earned a bachelor of arts in economics and a bachelor of science in chemistry from Queen’s University.

Family: Lives in Fredericton with her husband, Jon Holt, and three young daughters.

Hobbies: Running, visiting the farmers market in Fredericton with her family every Saturday.

Before politics: CEO of the Fredericton Chamber of Commerce, CEO of the New Brunswick Business Council, civil servant, business lobbyist, advocate, consultant and executive with an IT service company that trains and employs Indigenous people.

Politics: Worked as an adviser to former Liberal premier Brian Gallant. Won the leadership of the provincial Liberal party in August 2022 and was elected to the legislature in an April 2023 byelection.

Quote: “We don’t take it lightly that you have put your trust in myself and my team, and you have hope for a brighter future. But that hope I know is short-lived and it will be on us to deliver authentically, on the ground, and openly and transparently.” — Susan Holt, in her speech to supporters in Fredericton after the Liberals won a majority government on Oct. 21, 2024.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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New Brunswick Liberals win majority, Susan Holt first woman to lead province

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick voters have elected a Liberal majority government, tossing out the incumbent Progressive Conservatives after six years in power and handing the reins to the first woman ever to lead the province.

Liberal Leader Susan Holt is a relative newcomer to the province’s political scene, having won a byelection last year, eight months after she became the first woman to win the leadership of the party.

The Liberals appeared poised to take 31 of 49 seats to the Conservatives’ 16 and the Greens two.

Holt, 47, led the Liberals to victory after a 33-day campaign, thwarting Blaine Higgs’s bid to secure a third term as Tory premier.

The Liberal win marks a strong repudiation of Higgs’s pronounced shift to more socially conservative policies.

Higgs, meanwhile, lost in his riding of Quispamsis. In a speech to supporters in the riding, he confirmed that he would begin a leadership transition process.

As the Liberals secured their majority, Green Party Leader David Coon thanked his supporters and pledged to continue building the party, but he then turned his sights on the premier. “One thing is for sure,” he told a crowd gathered at Dolan’s Pub in Fredericton, “we know that Blaine Higgs is no longer the premier of this province.”

The election race was largely focused on health care and affordability but was notable for the remarkably dissimilar campaign styles of Holt and Higgs. Holt repeatedly promised to bring a balanced approach to governing, pledging a sharp contrast to Higgs’s “one-man show taking New Brunswick to the far right.”

“We need a government that acts as a partner and not as a dictator from one office in Fredericton,” she said in a recent interview with The Canadian Press.

Higgs focused on the high cost of living, promising to lower the provincial harmonized sales tax by two percentage points to 13 per cent — a pledge that will cost the province about $450 million annually.

Holt spent much of the campaign rolling out proposed fixes for a health-care system racked by a doctor shortage, overcrowded emergency rooms and long wait-times. A former business advocate and public servant, she promised to open 30 community health clinics across the province by 2028; remove the provincial sales tax from electricity bills; overhaul mental health services; and impose a three per cent cap on rent increases by 2025.

The 70-year-old Tory leader, a mechanical engineer and former Irving Oil executive, led a low-key campaign, during which he didn’t have any scheduled public events on at least 10 days — and was absent from the second leaders debate on Oct. 9.

Holt missed only two days of campaigning and submitted a 30-page platform with 100 promises, a far heftier document than the Tories’ two-page platform that includes 11 pledges.

When the election was called on Sept. 19, the Conservatives held 25 seats in the 49-seat legislature. The Liberals held 16 seats, the Green Party had three, there was one Independent and four vacancies. At least 25 seats are needed for a majority.

Higgs was hoping to become the first New Brunswick premier to win three consecutive elections since Liberal Frank McKenna won his third straight majority in 1995. But it was clear from the start that Higgs would have to overcome some big obstacles.

On the first day of the campaign, a national survey showed he had the lowest approval rating of any premier in the country. That same morning, Higgs openly mused about how he was perceived by the public, suggesting people had the wrong idea about who he really is.

“I really wish that people could know me outside of politics,” he said, adding that a sunnier disposition might increase his popularity. “I don’t know whether I’ve got to do comedy hour or I’ve got to smile more.”

Still, Higgs had plenty to boast about, including six consecutive balanced budgets, a significant reduction in the province’s debt, income tax cuts and a booming population.

Higgs’s party was elected to govern in 2018, when the Tories formed the province’s first minority government in almost 100 years. In 2020, he called a snap election — marking the first province to go to the polls during the COVID-19 pandemic — and won a slim majority.

Since then, 14 Tory caucus members have stepped down after clashing with the premier, some of them citing what they described as an authoritarian leadership style and a focus on conservative policies that represented a hard shift to the right.

A caucus revolt erupted last year after Higgs announced changes to the gender identity policy in schools. When several Tory lawmakers voted for an external review of the change, Higgs dropped dissenters from cabinet. A bid by some party members to trigger a leadership review went nowhere.

Higgs has also said a Tory government would reject all new applications for supervised drug-consumption sites, renew a legal challenge against the federal carbon pricing scheme and force people into drug treatment if authorities deem they “pose a threat to themselves or others.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

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