If and when the NHL returns, whether to finish the regular season or jump straight to the playoffs, Canada figures to have five teams in the post-season mix. While we still don’t know what structure any conclusion to 2019-20 will have, we do know what the biggest questions and challenges were being faced by these playoff hopefuls.
Here are the five Canadian teams in the running for the playoffs and the single biggest question they were facing about their style of play before the pause button was hit.
CALGARY FLAMES
Biggest Question: Defending the Rush
The Flames entered the playoffs last season as the top seed in the Western Conference and were promptly eliminated in five games by the Colorado Avalanche. The Avs torched the Flames off the rush, out-chancing Calgary 61-27 and outscoring them 5-0 in those situations. Nathan MacKinnon and company ran wild and the Flames season was over in the blink of an eye. This season, Calgary has continued to struggle defending opposition speed.
The Flames have allowed an average of 6.7 scoring chances per-game off the rush which ranks 28th in the league. Only the Ottawa Senators have allowed more rush goals.
If the playoffs started today, the Flames would open up against their provincial rival, the Edmonton Oilers. I’m sure you can see where I’m going with this. Connor McDavid leads the NHL in goals scored off the rush – shocker. Teammate Leon Draisaitl ranks second.
Can Calgary find a way to cut down on these dangerous transition chances against and slow down their opponent’s biggest speed threats? They couldn’t do it in the first round last year and they haven’t been able to do it this season.
EDMONTON OILERS
Biggest Question: 5-on-5 play
Roughly 80 per cent of a hockey game is played at even-strength; 20 per cent on special teams. I bet the Oilers wish it was the other way around. Edmonton has the best power play in the NHL (by far) and ranks second in penalty killing. However, at 5-on-5 the Oilers haven’t been able to keep their head above water.
Edmonton ranks 18th in goals for and 25th in goals against at 5-on-5 this season. The only team in the Western Conference to allow more goals than Edmonton in this game state – the San Jose Sharks.
The only team currently in a playoff spot to allow more – the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The only team currently in a playoff spot with a worse goal differential at 5-on-5….well, there isn’t one.
The Oilers take fewer shots than any team in the league at 5-on-5, which would be fine if they were able to generate a reasonable amount from the high-danger scoring areas of the ice. However, that hasn’t been the case as Edmonton ranks last in shot attempts and 28th in attempts from the slot.
Defensively, the Oilers struggle to defend the critical areas of the ice once opposing teams get set up in their end. Only Ottawa and Chicago allow more chances against off the cycle than Edmonton.
In part due to the quality of the chances the team allows, the Oilers goaltending tandem of Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen rank 25th in 5-on-5 save percentage at .912.
Can the Oilers’ elite special teams carry them in the post-season? That’s my biggest question with this team because I’m skeptical they’ll be able to flip a switch at even-strength if/when the playoffs start.
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
Biggest Question: Defence/Goaltending
No team has ever won the Stanley Cup after finishing outside the top-20 in goals against during the regular season. The Maple Leafs currently sit 26th, allowing an average of 3.17 per-game – worst of any team in a playoff spot. We know the Leafs can score, but keeping the puck out of their net is what’s keeping them from being a true Stanley Cup contender.
Part of it is team defence and part of it is goaltending.
Toronto has actually improved in terms of the amount and quality of chances it allows compared to last season. However, Frederik Anderson’s play has dropped from elite in 2018-19 to average in 2019-20. The end result is more pucks in the back of the Maple Leafs’ net.
Defensively, the Leafs’ biggest weakness remains defending in-zone where opposing teams are able to create quality looks at a high rate despite not spending a great deal of time in Toronto’s end. The puck-possession-focused Maple Leafs spend less than five-and-a-half minutes per-game defending at even-strength, yet allow an inordinate amount of chances and goals against off the cycle.
Can the Maple Leafs find a way to clamp down defensively in the post-season?
The closest comparable would be the 1992 Pittsburgh Penguins. The Pens are the only team since the NHL expanded in 1967 to win the Cup while finishing in the bottom-third of the league in goals against during the regular season. In 1992, after losing three of their first four games to Washington in the first round, the Pens switched to a less aggressive offensive system, prioritized defence and went on to win the series and eventually the Stanley Cup.
Toronto will have to improve defensively or hope Andersen can hit a few more gears come playoff time or it will risk a fourth straight first round exit.
VANCOUVER CANUCKS
Biggest Question: Team Speed
The Canucks are in a fight to make the playoffs, tied with the Nashville Predators for the final wild card spot in the Western Conference. Who knows what kind of playoff format we’ll see if/when the season resumes, but the biggest question I have with this team is whether a lack of team speed will be an issue in the post-season.
Potential first round match-ups include the Avalanche, Golden Knights and Oilers – all teams that play with a lot of pace.
The Canucks create the fewest amount of scoring chances off the rush of any team in the NHL and they allow the second most.
Vancouver doesn’t have the team speed to create a lot of quick-strike offence and as a result need to establish a presence low in the offensive zone to generate quality scoring chances. They do this well, leading the NHL in goals scored off the cycle. However, playing deep in the offensive zone as often as they do and not having an abundance of team speed to track back is what contributes to a lot of the rush chances and goals against.
This lack of team speed could be an issue against a team that breaks the puck out as well as the Blues or teams that play with the kind of pace the Avs and Golden Knights do.
The Canucks have a lot going for them. Jacob Markstrom has been brilliant this season, Quinn Hughes will be a Calder finalist and frankly, I’d have him top-five for the Norris Trophy as well. Their top-six, led by Elias Pettersson, Brock Boeser and J.T. Miller, has been great. But, my big question with the Canucks is whether they’ll be able to handle an opponent whose game is predicated on quick puck movement.
WINNIPEG JETS
Biggest Question: Can Hellebuyck carry the load?
There’s no doubt in my mind that Connor Hellebuyck has been the best goalie in the NHL this season. This, behind a Jets team that ranks 24th in expected goals against. The big question in Winnipeg is: Can Connor carry the load? He’ll have to for this team to have success in the playoffs.
No goalie has played more games this season than Hellebuyck, who has posted outstanding numbers in the process. In an effort to isolate goaltending performance from team defence, let’s look at the expected goals against (reflection of team defence) in games Hellebuyck played and compare that to the actual number of goals he allowed.
Based on the quantity and quality of shots faced, and the corresponding expected goal value of each, Hellebuyck was expected to allow 168.1 goals this season – he allowed 140. That differential of 28.1 goals he saved his team was by far the best of any goalie.
The Jets are an above average but not elite offensive team. They are below average defensively and have a stud between the pipes. If Hellebuyck can pick up where he left off, assuming hockey returns (nothing would make me happier – I think I’ve watched all of Netflix at this point) then the Jets have a fighting chance against whoever they face. If his play dips, Winnipeg will be in trouble. No current playoff team relies on its goalie more.
LAHORE, Pakistan (AP) — A top official of the Pakistan Cricket Board declined Friday to confirm media reports that India has decided against playing any games in host Pakistan during next year’s Champions Trophy.
“My view is if there’s any problems, they (India) should tell us in writing,” PCB chairman Mohsin Naqvi told reporters in Lahore. “I’ll share that with the media as well as with the government as soon as I get such a letter.”
Indian media reported Friday that the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) has communicated its concerns to all the Champions Trophy stakeholders, including the PCB, over the Feb. 19-March 9 tournament and would not play in arch-rival Pakistan.
The Times of India said that “Dubai is a strong candidate to host the fixtures involving the Men in Blue” for the 50-over tournament.
Such a solution would see Pakistan having to travel to a neutral venue to play India in a group match, with another potential meeting later in the tournament if both teams advanced from their group. The final is scheduled for March 9 in Pakistan with the specific venue not yet decided.
“Our stance is clear,” Naqvi said. “They need to give us in writing any objections they may have. Until now, no discussion of the hybrid model has happened, nor are we prepared to accept one.”
Political tensions have stopped bilateral cricket between the two nations since 2008 and they have competed in only multi-nation tournaments, including ICC World Cups.
“Cricket should be free of politics,” Naqvi said. “Any sport should not be entangled with politics. Our preparations for the Champions Trophy will continue unabated, and this will be a successful event.”
The PCB has already spent millions of dollars on the upgrade of stadiums in Karachi, Lahore and Rawalpindi which are due to host 15 Champions Trophy games. Naqvi hoped all the three stadiums will be ready over the next two months.
“Almost every country wants the Champions Trophy to be played here (in Pakistan),” Naqvi said. “I don’t think anyone should make this a political matter, and I don’t expect they will. I expect the tournament will be held at the home of the official hosts.”
Eight countries – Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, England, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand and Afghanistan – are due to compete in the tournament, the schedule of which is yet to be announced by the International Cricket Council.
“Normally the ICC announces the schedule of any major tournament 100 days before the event, and I hope they will announce it very soon,” Naqvi said.
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia – Ottawa‘s Gabriela Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe of New Zealand are through to the doubles final at the WTA Finals after a 7-6 (7), 6-1 victory over Nicole Melichar-Martinez of the United States and Australia’s Ellen Perez in semifinal action Friday.
Dabrowski and Routliffe won a hard-fought first set against serve when Routliffe’s quick reaction at the net to defend a Perez shot gave the duo set point, causing Perez to throw down her racket in frustration.
The second seeds then cruised through the second set, winning match point on serve when Melichar-Martinez couldn’t handle Routliffe’s shot.
The showdown was a rematch of last year’s semifinal, which Melichar-Martinez and Perez won in a super tiebreak.
Dabrowski and Routliffe will face the winner of a match between Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend, and Hao-Ching Chan and Veronika Kudermetova in the final on Saturday.
Dabrowski is aiming to become the first Canadian to win a WTA Finals title.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
Inter Milan winger Tajon Buchanan, recovered from a broken leg suffered in training at this summer’s Copa America, is back in Jesse Marsch’s Canada squad for the CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinal against Suriname.
The 25-year-old from Brampton, Ont., underwent surgery July 3 to repair a fractured tibia in Texas.
Canada, ranked 35th in the world, plays No. 136 Suriname on Nov. 15 in Paramaribo. The second leg of the aggregate series is four days later at Toronto’s BMO Field.
There is also a return for veteran winger Junior Hoilett, who last played for Canada in June in a 4-0 loss to the Netherlands in Marsch’s debut at the Canadian helm. The 34-year-old from Brampton, now with Scotland’s Hibernian, has 15 goals in 63 senior appearances for Canada.
Midfielder Ismael Kone, recovered from an ankle injury sustained on club duty with France’s Marseille, also returns. He missed Canada’s last three matches since the fourth-place Copa America loss to Uruguay in July.
But Canada will be without centre back Derek Cornelius, who exited Marseille’s win Sunday over Nantes on a stretcher after suffering an apparent rib injury.
The Canadian men will prepare for Suriname next week at a camp in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.
“We are looking forward to getting the group together again with the mindset that there is a trophy on the line,” Marsch said in a statement. “We want to end 2024 the right way with two excellent performances against a competitive Suriname squad and continue building on our tremendous growth this past summer.”
The quarterfinal winners advance to the Nations League Finals at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif., with the two semifinals scheduled for March 20 and the final and third-place playoff March 23, and qualify for the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup.
Thirteen of the 23 players on the Canadian roster are 25 or younger, with 19-year-old defender Jamie Knight-Lebel, currently playing for England’s Crewe Alexandra on loan from Bristol City, the youngest.
Bayern Munich star Alphonso Davies captains the side with Stephen Eustaquio, Jonathan Osorio, Richie Laryea, Alistair Johnston and Kamal Miller adding veteran support.
Jonathan David, Cyle Larin and Theo Bair are joined in attack by Minnesota United’s Tani Oluwaseyi.
Niko Sigur, a 21-year-old midfielder with Croatia’s Hadjuk Split, continues in the squad after making his debut in the September friendly against Mexico.
Suriname made it to the Nations League quarterfinals by finishing second to Costa Rica in Group A of the Nations League, ahead of No. 104 Guatemala, No. 161 Guyana and unranked Martinique and Guadeloupe.
“A good team,” Osorio said of Suriname. “These games are always tricky and they’re not easy at all … Suriname is a (former) Dutch colony and they’ll have Dutch players playing at high levels.”
“They won’t be someone we overlook at all,” added the Toronto FC captain, who has 81 Canada caps to his credit.
Located on the northeast coast of South America between Guyana and French Guiana, Suriname was granted independence in 1975 by the Netherlands.
Canada has faced Suriname twice before, both in World Cup qualifying play, winning 4-0 in suburban Chicago in June 2021 and 2-1 in Mexico City in October 1977.
The Canadian men, along with Mexico, the United States and Panama, received a bye into the final eight of the CONCACAF Nations League.
Canada, No. 2 in the CONCACAF rankings, drew Suriname as the best-placed runner-up from League A play.
Canada lost to Jamaica in last year’s Nations League quarterfinal, ousted on the away-goals rule after the series ended in a 4-4 draw. The Canadians lost 2-0 to the U.S. in the final of the 2022-23 tournament and finished fifth in 2019-20.
Canada defeated Panama 2-1 last time out, in an Oct. 15 friendly in Toronto.
Goalkeepers Maxime Crepeau and Jonathan Sirois, defenders Joel Waterman, Laryea and Miller and Osorio took part in a pre-camp this week in Toronto for North America-based players.
Canada Roster
Goalkeepers: Maxime Crepeau, Portland Timbers (MLS); Jonathan Sirois, CF Montreal (MLS); Dayne St. Clair, Minnesota United FC (MLS).
Defenders: Moise Bombito, OGC Nice (France); Alphonso Davies, Bayern Munich (Germany); Richie Laryea, Toronto FC (MLS); Alistair Johnston, Celtic (Scotland); Jamie Knight-Lebel. Crewe Alexandra, on loan from Bristol City (England); Kamal Miller, Portland Timbers (MLS); Joel Waterman, CF Montreal (MLS).
Midfielders: Ali Ahmed. Vancouver Whitecaps (MLS); Tajon Buchanan, Inter Milan (Italy); Mathieu Choiniere, Grasshopper Zurich (Switzerland); Stephen Eustaquio, FC Porto (Portugal); Junior Hoilett, Hibernian FC (Scotland); Ismael Kone, Olympique Marseille (France); Jonathan Osorio, Toronto FC (MLS); Jacob Shaffelburg, Nashville SC (MLS); Niko Sigur, Hadjuk Split (Croatia).
Forwards: Theo Bair, AJ Auxerre (France); Jonathan David, LOSC Lille (France); Cyle Larin, RCD Mallorca (Spain); Tani Oluwaseyi, Minnesota United (MLS).
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This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
