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One important detail that Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland got absolutely right on Duncan Keith deal – Edmonton Journal

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This in from Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland, his refusal to include prospects like Dmitri Samorukov, Raphael Lavoie, Dylan Holloway, Ryan McLeod, Evan Bouchard or Philip Broberg in any trade for Duncan Keith, formerly of the Chicago Blackhawks.

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“Wayne Gretzky can be traded, so anybody can be traded,” Holland told Bob Stauffer of Oilers Now. “But certainly those players that you just rattled off are key players for this team, for this organization, because they provide hope that they can develop into regular players that can contribute to a successful hockey team. We’ve got to develop them right. In this deal for Duncan Keith, you are absolutely correct, they were absolutely non-starters.”

My take

1. I’m not sure the Oilers have the right pro advice and the right granular, in-depth, individual analytics to nail it when it comes to bringing in outside players. I’m not saying they do or they don’t, just that some deals have been iffy, most notably the signing of Kyle Turris last summer. But it bolsters my own confidence to hear Holland make this statement. Of course, it would have been insane to trade Grade A prospects like Bouchard, Holloway and Broberg for a fading superstar like Keith, but it was rumoured that Grade A- prospects like Samorukov, McLeod and Lavoie might be on the table. If Holland had included any of those A- prospects in the deal, in addition to Caleb Jones, a B+ prospect at this point, I would have considered it gross incompetence. I’m greatly relieved to hear Holland say that was never on the table.

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2. Caleb Jones still has a chance to be a Top 4 d-man in the NHL. He got one shot at it this past year but his play took a step back. Perhaps that’s not unexpected. For example, Jeff Petry’s play took a step back in 2012-13 before he did much better in 2013-14 and 2014-15 with the Oilers (only to have the team trade him away). It could be that Jones will bounce back strong, just as Petry did, though I don’t see Jones as having the same great tools as Petry. He’s not as big, not as rangy and isn’t quite as strong a skater as Petry. I would have preferred the Oilers give Jones another shot, but it’s not like he hasn’t had a chance. He has and he stumbled a bit. The same can’t be said of players like McLeod, Lavoie and Samorukov. They are yet to stumble. They could easily develop into Core-12 players on the Oilers. It’s close to a coin flip for each of them whether they reach that level of play, I’d suggest. Those are pretty good odds for young players, so for Holland to move out both Jones and one of these A- prospects for Keith would have been a terrible own goal for the GM.

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3. There are a lot of people with strong opinions about Duncan Keith’s value. I’ve voice a few myself, though I’ve tried to restrain any certainty I might express. Why? How many Oilers fans have seen enough of Duncan Keith’s play from last season to fairly and accurately rate his value? About 1 in 500, I would guess. I’m not in that category. I did not see him play at all.

And how many have access to granular, reliable and accurate individual analytics for a deep dive on him? Any fan? What I see is a lot of fans using shot metrics to rate him, the same numbers that are so driven by a player’s teammates, as opposed to his own on-ice play, that Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl had weak shot share numbers in 2019-20, placing them as below average forwards both in the NHL and on their team. Could the same have happened to Duncan Keith’s shot share metrics? You better believe it.

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4. What are the percentage odds that Keith deal works out well for Oilers, that Keith provides decent value, which I define as helping team win playoff round as 2nd pairing dman? My own rough guesstimate, based on his age and fading even strength point production, is that it’s about 40/60 in year one, 30/70 in year two. But maybe Keith will exceed that expectation. I would not be surprised in the least if he were to do so, as he’s got many NHL types vouching for his ability to still play.

5. In the end, it doesn’t matter what I think or you think of the deal. It’s done. All that matters now is Keith’s play. That said, I’ve never seen any great agreement from Oilers fans on the ability of defencemen. We will watch him play and still not come close to agreeing on his value, I can guarantee you. Why? A huge faction of fans put their faith in shot shares numbers, the same numbers that has them thinking Ethan Bear was a strong NHL player this year, and that Caleb Jones was at least OK, with both better players right now than Duncan Keith. Others who watched Bear and Jones closely each game, and don’t put much weight in shot shares numbers, saw two players who struggled mightily at times.

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The funniest outcome for Keith next year? For him to have OKish-to-great shot shares, like Bear and Jones this year, and thus win over the shot shares crowd that way, but also for him to struggle so much and leak so many scoring chances against that the so-called eye test fans rate him poorly.

All that said, I’m not hoping for this screwball outcome, even if it would make me chuckle. I would prefer that he come in and play solid defence while moving the puck efficiently, just like Andrej Sekera did so well in 2016-17 before he got badly injured.

Fingers crossed that Keith can be the new Sekera for a year or two. I don’t think it’s likely but I don’t think it’s impossible either.

The Duncan Keith deal at the Cult of Hockey

LEAVINS: Make the case for Duncan Keith

STAPLES: Ken Holland speaks after the Duncan Keith acquisition

STAPLES: Is adding Duncan Keith to the Oilers “a major gamble”?

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Montreal Canadiens select Joe Vrbetic with 214th pick – Habs Eyes on the Prize

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After a very long day, the Montreal Canadiens final picks are finally upon us, with 214th overall being up first. The Habs acquired this pick after trading out of an earlier round, and with this pick the team selected Joe Vrbetic from OHL’s North Bay Battalion.

Elite Prospects

Unfortunately like many other prospects in the OHL, Vrbetic was not able to play this year due to the Covid pandemic. In his last full season he posted a 4.23 goals against, an .881 save percentage along with a 14-25-1 record on a dreadful North Bay team that won just 17 out of 62 games.

The Habs have the penultimate pick in the draft at 223rd overall this year coming up.

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Tokyo Olympics: Michael Woods was milliseconds away from podium finish in thrilling road race – The Globe and Mail

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Janine Beckie of Canada celebrates scoring their second goal at the Tokyo Olympic Games.

KIM HONG-JI/Reuters

Latest Olympic updates

OLYMPIC EVENTS FOR JULY 24
  • Soccer: Canada’s women’s soccer team won 2-1 over their Chilean opponents, with both goals supplied by Janine Beckie. This victory brings the team one step closer to securing a spot in the quarter-finals. Canada will next face off against Britain on Tuesday.
  • Cycling: Michael Woods of Ottawa came close to becoming Canada’s first medal finish after placing fifth in the men’s road race, milliseconds away from the podium. Woods pushed his chase group forward, just trailing behind eventual gold-medal winner Richard Carapaz of Ecuador. Woods finished just one minute and seven seconds behind Carapaz.
  • Judo: Japan’s Naohisa Takato won gold in the men’s under 60 kilogram competition for judo, with Japan’s Funa Tonaki securing silver in the women’s under 48 kilogram category. Japan, the birthplace of judo, holds more medals in the sport than any other country. With 86 medals in total, one in five of Japan’s Olympic medals are in judo.
  • Tennis: Canadian lefthander Leylah Fernandez won her opening match against Ukraine’s Dayana Yastremska, putting her through to the second round. Fernandez, an 18-year old from Montreal, won her sets in after just over two hours on a hot Tokyo afternoon.
  • Beach volleyball: Canada’s Melissa Humana-Paredes and Sarah Pavan beat Katja Stam and Raisa Schoon of the Netherlands 2-0 on the first day of beach volleyball at the Olympics. The pair have played together for five years and qualified for the Olympics thanks to their 2019 World Championships win. Their next game is on Monday against Germany.
  • Gymnastics: After a fall on the horizontal bars, Japan’s “King Kohei” Uchimura is out of the Olympics. The 32-year old Uchimura is considered one of the best male gymnasts of all time. For two full Olympic cycles, Uchimura had won every competition he entered. He holds seven Olympic medals and became the first man in 44 years to win back-to-back individual all-around Olympic golds at the Rio 2016 Games.
OFF THE FIELD
  • Refugees: Three athletes competing for the Refugee Olympic team will attend Sheridan College in Ontario this fall as part of the first cohort of a new athletic stream of the Student Refugee Program. Rose Nathike Likonyen, Paulo Amotun Lokoro and James Nyang Chiengjiek fled South Sudan as children and grew up in the Kakuma refugee camp in Kenya where they currently live.
  • Dressage: “He’s definitely here with us,” Jamie Kellock said of her late brother, Jonathan. Jamie is attending the Tokyo Olympics as a groom while her sister Lindsay makes her Team Canada debut in dressage. Their brother died of a brain tumour just seven months ago. He was a ski racer and coach in Whistler, B.C. before he passed away at 29.
  • New parents: Officials from the Tokyo Olympics said they have tried to find solutions for new parents who want to bring their young children to Tokyo while they compete. The issue was raised when Spanish synchronized swimmer Ona Carbonell announced on Instagram that she had to travel to Tokyo without her husband and breastfeeding infant son because they would not have been allowed to quarantine together in the Olympic village.

Get the Olympic highlights in your inbox every day with our newsletter, or follow @globeandmail on Twitter for breaking news.

Situation in Tokyo, by numbers

WHAT IS THE OLYMPIC MEDAL TALLY IN TOKYO SO FAR?

So far, China has the most gold medals, two, followed by Japan, Korea, Thailand, Iran, Ecuador, Kosovo, Italy with one gold each. Canada has no medals yet.

JAPAN’S LATEST COVID-19 DATA

WHAT TIME IS IT IN TOKYO RIGHT NOW?

Olympic highlights for July 24

Canadian athletes at Tokyo Olympics in photos

Opinion: At the Tokyo Olympics, Michael Woods was a hair’s breadth away from being the stuff of national lore

Michael Woods came milliseconds away from the podium during the men’s road race, and milliseconds away from forever capturing the hearts and minds of Canadians. Despite the near miss, Woods’ performance was captivating. Columnist Cathal Kelly writes, “When he is up in the saddle and headed to vertical, Woods is something to watch. He’s like a piston with arms.”

Penny Oleksiak, women’s swimming team face Olympic-sized expectations in Tokyo

The Canadian women’s swimming team won big at the 2016 Rio Olympic Games, bringing home six medals. They surprised Canada, the world, and even themselves. Fast forward to today’s Tokyo Olympic Games, and Canada wants them to do it all over again. At the centre of the team is Penny Oleksiak, who spearheaded Rio’s medal captures despite being just 16 at the time. She arrives in Tokyo with massive expectations on her shoulders.

Taiwan competes as ‘Chinese Taipei’, broadcaster jumps through hoops to appease China

Nathan VanderKlippe, currently reporting from Tokyo, shares musings about the geopolitics present at the Olympic Games. The International Olympic Committee does not allow Taiwan – a self-governed nation – to compete under its own name, instead appearing as Chinese Taipei under a special flag. Online streaming service Tencent interrupted its coverage of the opening ceremony to ensure Chinese viewers didn’t have to see the Taiwanese athletes participate in the parade.

Tokyo Olympic events to watch tomorrow, July 25

  • Swimming: Keep an eye out for Kylie Masse in the women’s 100-metre backstroke and 14-year-old Summer McIntosh of Toronto in the women’s 400-metre freestyle events.
  • Judo: Elimination rounds are scheduled for 10 p.m. (ET) for the women’s 57-kilogram, the weight category for Jessica Klimkait of Team Canada.
  • Diving: Canada will compete in the women’s three-metre synchronized springboard, represented by the veteran Olympian Jennifer Abel alongside Melissa Citrini-Beaulieu, who is making her Olympic debut this year.
  • Taekwondo: In the women’s 57-kilogram weight class, Skylar Park is hoping to bring home Canada’s first medal in taekwondo since the 20018 Beijing Olympics. She topped the podium in the sport at the Pan Am Games this year.
  • Cycling: Leah Kirchmann of Winnipeg, Karol-Ann Canuel of Amos, Que., and Alison Jackson of Vermilion, Alta are competing in the women’s road race alongside 64 other competitors. The race kicks off in Tokyo and brings the cyclists 137 kilometres to the foothills of Mount Fuji.

Check the full Olympic schedule for the latest event times and competitors.

The Tokyo Olympics: Essential reads

What athletes and teams should Canadians look out for? Consult our guide.

How did Canada’s swimmers use data to get stronger? Grant Robertson explains.

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2021 NHL Draft Tracker: Round 1 picks, notes; Results for Rounds 2-7 – NHL

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The 2021 NHL Draft began as expected: with the Sabres selecting Owen Power first overall. From there, we saw surprises, including one that required a team statement.

With Round 1 complete on Friday, follow along on PHT for results from Rounds 2-7.

2021 NHL Draft

Round 1

1. Buffalo Sabres — Owen Power, D, Michigan (NCAA)

“In truth, he is a unique player, combining amazing size, strong skating, a big shot, great vision, the ability (if not necessarily the proclivity) to play a dominating physical game.” Ryan Wagman, McKeen’s Hockey

Read more about the Sabres selecting Power first overall here.

2. Seattle Kraken — Matthew Beniers, C, Michigan (NCAA)

It’s probably not fair to compare Beniers to Ron Francis, the Kraken GM who drafted him. That will be tough to avoid, though, because Beniers brings the sort of two-way game that’s expected to translate smoothly to the NHL.

Want more on Beniers, and the Kraken making their first-ever draft pick at No. 2? Click here.

3. Anaheim Ducks — Mason McTavish, C, Peterborough (OHL)

“The Ducks desperately need offensive players, and in McTavish they get high-end skill blended with size and strength through the middle. And McTavish was an impact player during his time in the Swiss League, playing with and against older, more physically developed competition.” NHL.com’s Adam Kimelman.

4. New Jersey Devils — Luke Hughes, D, USA U-18 (USNTDP)

Doesn’t get much better than keeping brothers together, does it? Jack Hughes certainly looked elated that the Devils drafted Luke Hughes fourth overall, that’s for sure.

5. Columbus Blue Jackets — Kent Johnson, C, Michigan (NCAA)

“His puck skills are sublime, even if he needs to simplify his game to manage his risk taking better.” Ryan Wagman, McKeen’s Hockey

6. Detroit Red Wings — Simon Edvinsson, D, Frolunda (SHL)

Edvinsson ranks as one of the 2021 NHL Draft’s most interesting prospects, as he was projected to fall in many spots. No doubt, size is a big selling point for the big Swedish defenseman.

” (Edvinsson) … combines incredible skating and puck skills in a supersized frame, a talent the likes of which this team has nothing like. He is raw, and likely needs at least two more years of development, but the upside is a star,” Ryan Wagman, McKeen’s Hockey

7. San Jose Sharks — William Eklund, LW, Djurgarden (SHL)

People started to clamor for Eklund pretty quickly.

Well, the fall didn’t last too long? Depends upon who you ask, perhaps. (Ryan Wagman mock-drafted Eklund at seven.)

8. Los Angeles Kings – Brandt Clarke, D, Barrie (OHL)

” … In a sentence, Clarke projects as a second or third defenseman who can be on a top NHL power-play unit but may not be able to face top opponents defensively.” – Corey Pronman, The Athletic (sub required).

9. Arizona Coyotes (from VAN) — Dylan Guenther, RW, Edmonton (WHL)

” … He becomes a massive component of Arizona’s next rebuild. I see a lot about his game that translates to the pros and you can see him finishing plays from Clayton Keller, Barrett Hayton and Victor Soderstrom for many years, and driving a line with his great two-way play. He was my No. 2 ranked prospect,” – Corey Pronman, The Athletic (sub required).

10. Ottawa Senators — Tyler Boucher, RW, USA U-18 (USNTDP)

“In a sentence, Boucher projects as a bottom-six NHL winger who will be one of the most physical players in a game.” Corey Pronman, The Athletic (sub required).

*11. Forfeited pick*

12. Columbus Blue Jackets (from CHI) — Cole Sillinger, C, Sioux Falls (USHL)

“Sillinger stands out for his high-end hockey IQ, excellent vision, playmaking ability, an NHL-ready shot and the ability to control the game with the puck on his stick.” – NHL.com’s Adam Kimelman.

13. Calgary Flames — Matthew Coronato, RW, Chicago (USHL)

“Coronato is a dominant offensive force who blends top-end goal scoring, strong skating and a physical approach, similar to United States Hockey Hall of Fame forward John LeClair. He was nicknamed “Bison” because of the way he goes hard to the net in the offensive zone.” NHL.com’s Adam Kimelman.

14. Buffalo Sabres (from PHI) — Isak Rosen, RW, Leksands IF (SHL)

“Isak Rosen has a full toolshed of high-end offensive elements. Being forced to play in the SHL after the Swedish junior leagues were cancelled didn’t help his stat page, but was a great learning experience, which his seven goals in seven games at the U18s illustrated.”Ryan Wagman, McKeen’s Hockey

15. Detroit Red Wings (from DAL) — Sebastian Cossa, G, Edmonton (WHL)

Heading into the 2021 NHL Draft, people wondered if as many as two goalies could go in the top 10. There was also debate between Cossa or Jesper Wallstedt as the first goalie to go in the 2021 NHL Draft. Ultimately, the Red Wings traded up to land a big goalie. They’ve been aggressive attempting to improve at net, as Cossa is the prospect to pair with prime-age goalie Alex Nedeljkovic.

16. NY Rangers — Brennan Othmann, LW, Flint (OHL)
17. St. Louis Blues — Zachary Bolduc, C, Rimouski (QMJHL)
18. Winnipeg Jets – Chaz Lucius, C, USA U-18 (USNTDP)
19. Nashville Predators —  Fedor Svechkov, C, Togliatti (VHL) 
20. Minnesota Wild (from EDM) – Jesper Wallstedt, G, Lulea (SHL)

21. Boston Bruins — Fabian Lysell, RW, Lulea (SHL)

22. Edmonton Oilers (from MIN) — Xavier Bourgault, C,  Shawinigan (QMJHL)
23. Dallas Stars (Detroit; WSH) — Wyatt Johnston, C, Windsor (OHL)
24. Florida Panthers — Mackie Samoskevich, RW, Chicago (USHL)
25. Columbus Blue Jackets (from TOR) — Corson Ceulemans, D, Brooks (AJHL)
26. Minnesota Wild (from PIT) — Carson Lambos, D, Winnipeg (WHL)
27. Nashville Predators  (from CAR) — Zachary L’Heureux, LW, Halifax (QMJHL)
28. Colorado Avalanche — Oskar Olausson, RW, HV71 (SHL)
29. New Jersey Devils (from NYI) — Chase Stillman, RW, Sudbury (OHL)
30. Vegas Golden Knights — Zach Dean, C, Gatineau (QMJHL)
31. Montreal Canadiens — Logan Mailloux, D, London (OHL)
32. Chicago Blackhawks (from TBL via CBJ) — Nolan Allan, D, Prince Albert (WHL)

Pick 11 – The NHL directed the forfeiture of this pick in sanctions against the Arizona Coyotes announced Aug. 26, 2020.

Also, here’s the complete 2021 NHL Draft order for rounds 2-7:

Round 2

33. Buffalo Sabres: Prokhor Poltapov, LW, CSKA-2 (MHL)
34. Anaheim Ducks: Olen Zellweger, D, Everett (WHL)
35. Seattle Kraken: Ryker Evans, D, Regina (WHL)
36. Detroit Red Wings: Shai Buium, D, Sioux City (USHL)
37. Arizona Coyotes: Josh Doan, RW, Chicago (USHL)
38. Vegas Golden Knights: Daniil Chayka, D, CSKA (Russia)
39. Ottawa Senators: Zack Ostapchuk, C, Vancouver (WHL)
40. Carolina Hurricanes: Scott Morrow, D, Shattuck St. Mary’s (High MN)
41. Vancouver Canucks: Danila Klimovich, RW, Minsk Zubry (Belarus 2)
42. Los Angeles Kings: Francesco Pinelli, C, Kitchener (OHL)
43. Arizona Coyotes: Ilya Fedotov, LW, Nizhny Novgorod 2 (Russia Jr.)
44. Columbus (from CHI)
45. Calgary
46. Philadelphia
47. Dallas
48. Detroit (from NYR)
49. Los Angeles (from STL via BUF and VGK)
50. Winnipeg
51. Nashville
52. NY Islanders (from DET via EDM)
53. Buffalo (from BOS)
54. Minnesota
55. Washington
56. Florida
57. Toronto
58. Pittsburgh
59. Carolina
60. Arizona (from NYI via COL)
61. Colorado (from NJD via NYI)
62. Chicago (from VGK)
63. Montreal
64. Montreal (from TBL)

Round 3

65. NY Rangers (from BUF)
66. Anaheim
67. Seattle
68. New Jersey
69. Columbus
70. Detroit
71. San Jose
72. Los Angeles
73. Dallas (from VAN)
74. Ottawa
75. Washington (from ARI via NJD)
76. Montreal (from CHI)
77. Calgary
78. Philadelphia
79. Dallas
80. NY Rangers
81. St. Louis
82. Winnipeg
83. Nashville
84. Calgary (from EDM)
85. Boston
86. Minnesota
87. Montreal (from WSH via SJS)
88. Buffalo (from FLA)
89. Los Angeles (from TOR)
90. Minnesota (from PIT via SJS)
91. Carolina
92. Colorado
93. NY Islanders
94. Carolina (from DET via VGK)
95. Buffalo (from MTL)
96. Tampa Bay

Round 4

97. Buffalo
98. Anaheim
99. Seattle
100. New Jersey
101. Columbus
102. Detroit
103. San Jose
104. NY Rangers (from LAK)
105. Chicago (from VAN)
106. NY Rangers (from OTT)
107. Arizona
108. Chicago
109. Los Angeles (from CGY)
110. Philadelphia
111. Dallas
112. NY Rangers
113. Montreal (from STL)
114. Vegas (from WPG)
115. Nashville
116. Edmonton
117. Boston
118. Minnesota
119. Washington
120. Florida
121. San Jose (from TOR)
122. Arizona (from PIT)
123. Carolina
124. Nashville (from COL via OTT)
125. NY Islanders
126. Montreal (from VGK)
127. Montreal
128. Detroit (from TBL)

Round 5

129. New Jersey (from BUF)
130. Anaheim
131. Seattle
132. Columbus (from NJD)
133. Columbus
134. Detroit
135. San Jose
136. Los Angeles
137. Vancouver
138. Detroit (from OTT via MTL)
139. Arizona
140. Vancouver (from CHI)
141. Calgary
142. Montreal (from PHI)
143. Dallas
144. NY Rangers
145. St. Louis
146. Winnipeg
147. Nashville
148. Anaheim (from EDM via OTT)
149. Boston
150. Minnesota
151. Washington
152. Florida
153. Toronto
154. Pittsburgh
155. Vegas (from CAR)
156. San Jose (from COL)
157. NY Islanders
158. Philadelphia (from VGK via WSH)
159. Buffalo (from MTL)
160. Tampa Bay

Round 6

161. Buffalo
162. Anaheim
163. Seattle
164. New Jersey
165. Columbus
166. Detroit
167. San Jose
168. Los Angeles
169. Vancouver
170. Ottawa
171. Arizona
172. Chicago
173. Calgary
174. Philadelphia
175. Dallas
176. NY Rangers
177. St. Louis
178. Vancouver (from WPG)
179. Nashville
180. Edmonton
181. Boston
182. Minnesota
183. Washington
184. Florida
185. Toronto
186. Edmonton (from PIT)
187. Carolina
188. Buffalo (from COL)
189. NY Islanders
190. Vegas
191. Montreal
192. Tampa Bay

Round 7

193. Buffalo
194. Pittsburgh (from ANA)
195. Seattle
196. Tampa Bay (from NJD)
197. Columbus
198. St. Louis (from DET)
199. San Jose
200. Carolina (from LAK)
201. Vancouver
202. Ottawa
203. New Jersey (from ARI)
204. Chicago
205. Calgary
206. Philadelphia
207. Dallas
208. NY Rangers
209. Carolina (from STL)
210. Florida (from WPG)
211. Tampa Bay (from NSH)
212. Edmonton
213. Boston
214. Minnesota
215. Pittsburgh (from WSH)
216. Chicago (from FLA)
217. Boston (from TOR)
218. Pittsburgh
219. Carolina
220. Colorado
221. NY Islanders
222. Vegas
223. Montreal
224. Tampa Bay

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