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This in from Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland, his refusal to include prospects like Dmitri Samorukov, Raphael Lavoie, Dylan Holloway, Ryan McLeod, Evan Bouchard or Philip Broberg in any trade for Duncan Keith, formerly of the Chicago Blackhawks.

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“Wayne Gretzky can be traded, so anybody can be traded,” Holland told Bob Stauffer of Oilers Now. “But certainly those players that you just rattled off are key players for this team, for this organization, because they provide hope that they can develop into regular players that can contribute to a successful hockey team. We’ve got to develop them right. In this deal for Duncan Keith, you are absolutely correct, they were absolutely non-starters.”

My take

1. I’m not sure the Oilers have the right pro advice and the right granular, in-depth, individual analytics to nail it when it comes to bringing in outside players. I’m not saying they do or they don’t, just that some deals have been iffy, most notably the signing of Kyle Turris last summer. But it bolsters my own confidence to hear Holland make this statement. Of course, it would have been insane to trade Grade A prospects like Bouchard, Holloway and Broberg for a fading superstar like Keith, but it was rumoured that Grade A- prospects like Samorukov, McLeod and Lavoie might be on the table. If Holland had included any of those A- prospects in the deal, in addition to Caleb Jones, a B+ prospect at this point, I would have considered it gross incompetence. I’m greatly relieved to hear Holland say that was never on the table.

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2. Caleb Jones still has a chance to be a Top 4 d-man in the NHL. He got one shot at it this past year but his play took a step back. Perhaps that’s not unexpected. For example, Jeff Petry’s play took a step back in 2012-13 before he did much better in 2013-14 and 2014-15 with the Oilers (only to have the team trade him away). It could be that Jones will bounce back strong, just as Petry did, though I don’t see Jones as having the same great tools as Petry. He’s not as big, not as rangy and isn’t quite as strong a skater as Petry. I would have preferred the Oilers give Jones another shot, but it’s not like he hasn’t had a chance. He has and he stumbled a bit. The same can’t be said of players like McLeod, Lavoie and Samorukov. They are yet to stumble. They could easily develop into Core-12 players on the Oilers. It’s close to a coin flip for each of them whether they reach that level of play, I’d suggest. Those are pretty good odds for young players, so for Holland to move out both Jones and one of these A- prospects for Keith would have been a terrible own goal for the GM.

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3. There are a lot of people with strong opinions about Duncan Keith’s value. I’ve voice a few myself, though I’ve tried to restrain any certainty I might express. Why? How many Oilers fans have seen enough of Duncan Keith’s play from last season to fairly and accurately rate his value? About 1 in 500, I would guess. I’m not in that category. I did not see him play at all.

And how many have access to granular, reliable and accurate individual analytics for a deep dive on him? Any fan? What I see is a lot of fans using shot metrics to rate him, the same numbers that are so driven by a player’s teammates, as opposed to his own on-ice play, that Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl had weak shot share numbers in 2019-20, placing them as below average forwards both in the NHL and on their team. Could the same have happened to Duncan Keith’s shot share metrics? You better believe it.

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4. What are the percentage odds that Keith deal works out well for Oilers, that Keith provides decent value, which I define as helping team win playoff round as 2nd pairing dman? My own rough guesstimate, based on his age and fading even strength point production, is that it’s about 40/60 in year one, 30/70 in year two. But maybe Keith will exceed that expectation. I would not be surprised in the least if he were to do so, as he’s got many NHL types vouching for his ability to still play.

5. In the end, it doesn’t matter what I think or you think of the deal. It’s done. All that matters now is Keith’s play. That said, I’ve never seen any great agreement from Oilers fans on the ability of defencemen. We will watch him play and still not come close to agreeing on his value, I can guarantee you. Why? A huge faction of fans put their faith in shot shares numbers, the same numbers that has them thinking Ethan Bear was a strong NHL player this year, and that Caleb Jones was at least OK, with both better players right now than Duncan Keith. Others who watched Bear and Jones closely each game, and don’t put much weight in shot shares numbers, saw two players who struggled mightily at times.

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The funniest outcome for Keith next year? For him to have OKish-to-great shot shares, like Bear and Jones this year, and thus win over the shot shares crowd that way, but also for him to struggle so much and leak so many scoring chances against that the so-called eye test fans rate him poorly.

All that said, I’m not hoping for this screwball outcome, even if it would make me chuckle. I would prefer that he come in and play solid defence while moving the puck efficiently, just like Andrej Sekera did so well in 2016-17 before he got badly injured.

Fingers crossed that Keith can be the new Sekera for a year or two. I don’t think it’s likely but I don’t think it’s impossible either.

The Duncan Keith deal at the Cult of Hockey

LEAVINS: Make the case for Duncan Keith

STAPLES: Ken Holland speaks after the Duncan Keith acquisition

STAPLES: Is adding Duncan Keith to the Oilers “a major gamble”?