This in from Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland, his refusal to include prospects like Dmitri Samorukov, Raphael Lavoie, Dylan Holloway, Ryan McLeod, Evan Bouchard or Philip Broberg in any trade for Duncan Keith, formerly of the Chicago Blackhawks.
“Wayne Gretzky can be traded, so anybody can be traded,” Holland told Bob Stauffer of Oilers Now. “But certainly those players that you just rattled off are key players for this team, for this organization, because they provide hope that they can develop into regular players that can contribute to a successful hockey team. We’ve got to develop them right. In this deal for Duncan Keith, you are absolutely correct, they were absolutely non-starters.”
1. I’m not sure the Oilers have the right pro advice and the right granular, in-depth, individual analytics to nail it when it comes to bringing in outside players. I’m not saying they do or they don’t, just that some deals have been iffy, most notably the signing of Kyle Turris last summer. But it bolsters my own confidence to hear Holland make this statement. Of course, it would have been insane to trade Grade A prospects like Bouchard, Holloway and Broberg for a fading superstar like Keith, but it was rumoured that Grade A- prospects like Samorukov, McLeod and Lavoie might be on the table. If Holland had included any of those A- prospects in the deal, in addition to Caleb Jones, a B+ prospect at this point, I would have considered it gross incompetence. I’m greatly relieved to hear Holland say that was never on the table.
2. Caleb Jones still has a chance to be a Top 4 d-man in the NHL. He got one shot at it this past year but his play took a step back. Perhaps that’s not unexpected. For example, Jeff Petry’s play took a step back in 2012-13 before he did much better in 2013-14 and 2014-15 with the Oilers (only to have the team trade him away). It could be that Jones will bounce back strong, just as Petry did, though I don’t see Jones as having the same great tools as Petry. He’s not as big, not as rangy and isn’t quite as strong a skater as Petry. I would have preferred the Oilers give Jones another shot, but it’s not like he hasn’t had a chance. He has and he stumbled a bit. The same can’t be said of players like McLeod, Lavoie and Samorukov. They are yet to stumble. They could easily develop into Core-12 players on the Oilers. It’s close to a coin flip for each of them whether they reach that level of play, I’d suggest. Those are pretty good odds for young players, so for Holland to move out both Jones and one of these A- prospects for Keith would have been a terrible own goal for the GM.
3. There are a lot of people with strong opinions about Duncan Keith’s value. I’ve voice a few myself, though I’ve tried to restrain any certainty I might express. Why? How many Oilers fans have seen enough of Duncan Keith’s play from last season to fairly and accurately rate his value? About 1 in 500, I would guess. I’m not in that category. I did not see him play at all.
And how many have access to granular, reliable and accurate individual analytics for a deep dive on him? Any fan? What I see is a lot of fans using shot metrics to rate him, the same numbers that are so driven by a player’s teammates, as opposed to his own on-ice play, that Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl had weak shot share numbers in 2019-20, placing them as below average forwards both in the NHL and on their team. Could the same have happened to Duncan Keith’s shot share metrics? You better believe it.
4. What are the percentage odds that Keith deal works out well for Oilers, that Keith provides decent value, which I define as helping team win playoff round as 2nd pairing dman? My own rough guesstimate, based on his age and fading even strength point production, is that it’s about 40/60 in year one, 30/70 in year two. But maybe Keith will exceed that expectation. I would not be surprised in the least if he were to do so, as he’s got many NHL types vouching for his ability to still play.
5. In the end, it doesn’t matter what I think or you think of the deal. It’s done. All that matters now is Keith’s play. That said, I’ve never seen any great agreement from Oilers fans on the ability of defencemen. We will watch him play and still not come close to agreeing on his value, I can guarantee you. Why? A huge faction of fans put their faith in shot shares numbers, the same numbers that has them thinking Ethan Bear was a strong NHL player this year, and that Caleb Jones was at least OK, with both better players right now than Duncan Keith. Others who watched Bear and Jones closely each game, and don’t put much weight in shot shares numbers, saw two players who struggled mightily at times.
The funniest outcome for Keith next year? For him to have OKish-to-great shot shares, like Bear and Jones this year, and thus win over the shot shares crowd that way, but also for him to struggle so much and leak so many scoring chances against that the so-called eye test fans rate him poorly.
All that said, I’m not hoping for this screwball outcome, even if it would make me chuckle. I would prefer that he come in and play solid defence while moving the puck efficiently, just like Andrej Sekera did so well in 2016-17 before he got badly injured.
Fingers crossed that Keith can be the new Sekera for a year or two. I don’t think it’s likely but I don’t think it’s impossible either.
LEAVINS: Make the case for Duncan Keith
STAPLES: Ken Holland speaks after the Duncan Keith acquisition
STAPLES: Is adding Duncan Keith to the Oilers “a major gamble”?
LAS VEGAS (AP) — Mountain West Conference Commissioner Gloria Nevarez said Thursday the forfeitures that volleyball teams are willing to take to avoid playing San Jose State is “not what we celebrate in college athletics” and that she is heartbroken over what has transpired this season surrounding the Spartans and their opponents.
Four teams have canceled games against San Jose State: Boise State, Southern Utah, Utah State and Wyoming, with none of the schools explicitly saying why they were forfeiting.
A group of Nevada players issued a statement saying they will not take the floor when the Wolf Pack are scheduled to host the Spartans on Oct. 26. They cited their “right to safety and fair competition,” though their school reaffirmed Thursday that the match is still planned and that state law bars forfeiture “for reasons related to gender identity or expression.”
All those schools, except Southern Utah, are in the Mountain West. New Mexico, also in the MWC, went ahead with its home match on Thursday night, which was won by the Spartans, 3-1, the team’s first victory since Sept. 24.
“It breaks my heart because they’re human beings, young people, student-athletes on both sides of this issue that are getting a lot of national negative attention,” Nevarez said in an interview with The Associated Press at Mountain West basketball media days. “It just doesn’t feel right to me.”
Republican governors of Idaho, Nevada, Utah and Wyoming have made public statements in support of the cancellations, citing a need for fairness in women’s sports. Former President Donald Trump, the GOP nominee in this year’s presidential race, this week referenced an unidentified volleyball match when he was asked during a Fox News town hall about transgender athletes in women’s sports.
“I saw the slam, it was a slam. I never saw a ball hit so hard, hit the girl in the head,” Trump replied before he was asked what can be done. “You just ban it. The president bans it. You just don’t let it happen.”
After Trump’s comment, San Diego State issued a statement that said “it has been incorrectly reported that an San Diego State University student-athlete was hit in the face with a volleyball during match play with San Jose State University. The ball bounced off the shoulder of the student-athlete, and the athlete was uninjured and did not miss a play.”
San Jose State has not made any direct comments about the politicians’ “fairness” references, and Nevarez did not go into details.
“I’m learning a lot about the issue,” Nevarez said. “I don’t know a lot of the language yet or the science or the understanding nationally of how this issue plays out. The external influences are so far on either side. We have an election year. It’s political, so, yeah, it feels like a no-win based on all the external pressure.”
The cancellations could mean some teams will not qualify for the conference tournament Nov. 27-30 in Las Vegas, where the top six schools are slated to compete for the league championship.
“The student-athlete (in question) meets the eligibility standard, so if a team does not play them, it’s a forfeit, meaning they take a loss,” Nevarez said.
Ahead of the Oct. 26 match in Reno. Nevada released a statement acknowledging that “a majority of the Wolf Pack women’s volleyball team” had decided to forfeit against San Jose State. The school said only the university can take that step but any player who decides not to play would face no punishment.
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AP college sports:
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
OTTAWA – Travis Green might not have liked the end result, but he’s counting on his team learning from the effort.
Green’s Ottawa Senators were handed a 3-1 loss by the New Jersey Devils Thursday night in a game that highlighted the importance of sticking with things.
“I thought both teams played pretty well,” said Green. “I thought we had a lot of the game that I liked, but I thought there’s a few moments where it got away. We got away from our game, and they stuck with their game a little longer.
“There’s always momentum back and forth for one team to create some chances. It’s a fine line between winning and losing in the league, especially when you’re playing, two good teams are playing.”
Jacob Markstrom’s 30 saves also played a part, with the Devils goaltender only getting beat with 65 seconds left in regulation as the Senators were on the power play with an empty net.
Brady Tkachuk tipped a Claude Giroux shot to spoil Markstrom’s shutout bid.
“Outstanding,” said Devils coach Sheldon Keefe of his goaltender. “Just terrible that he doesn’t get the shutout that he deserves in this one here.
“You feel for him when they make that (penalty) call. You can just kind of feel like it’s going to give them a little extra life. But he was outstanding for us, no question.”
The two teams were scoreless after the first period, where each had to fight for every opportunity. Noah Gregor rang a shot off the crossbar for the Senators, but otherwise, neither team was able to generate much offensively.
The Devils capitalized in the second as a power play expired with Erik Haula redirecting a Johnathan Kovacevic shot past Anton Forsberg, who made 32 saves.
Less than four minutes later, Nathan Bastian took advantage of a Giroux giveaway and beat Forsberg low blocker for his first of the season with the Devils short-handed.
“I liked our second period a lot,” Keefe said. “We took hold of the game and didn’t give up much, and when we did, I thought it was really from the perimeter, only a couple there.”
The Devils tightened up defensively in the third and were able to make it 3-0 when Paul Cotter was left alone in the slot.
“I think for stretches of the game we played the right way and kind of get in on the forecheck and play that way,” said Senators centre Nick Cousins. “It seems like when we get down a couple goals, we kind of change our game, which isn’t a recipe for success in this league.
“I think we’ve just got to keep doing the right things over and over again, even when it’s 2-0.”
With the Senators just four games in and still learning and adjusting to a new system, Green understands there will be growing pains along the way.
“We’re also trying to define our game,” he said. “I think we’re getting there. Both teams play fast. It was a fast skating game. There wasn’t a lot of room to move out there for either team.”
In his short tenure behind the Senators bench, Green has seen his team play very different styles of games and knows there will be nights like this along the way, but learning from them will be key.
“There’s going to be a lot of nights where you kind of got to earn everything you get,” admitted Green. “It’s not going to be freewheeling. Good teams don’t play freewheeling hockey.
“You learn when you win, you learn when you lose games that you don’t play well. You learn when you lose games that you had a pretty good game but you still lose and you’ve got to find a way. Good teams find a way to win those games.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
MONTREAL – The Montreal Canadiens fell 4-1 to the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday. They also lost their top minute-muncher in the process.
Matheson logged 7:35 in ice time during the first period but did not return for the second because of an upper-body injury. When or how Matheson sustained the injury was not clear. The Canadiens said he would be re-evaluated on Friday.
The game was tied at 1 before he exited, forcing the Canadiens to play with five defencemen for 40 minutes.
“Mike is one of the biggest parts of our D core, and I think losing him — he’s playing against top line, playing power play and we want him on the ice — definitely losing him was a big loss,” teammate David Savard said. “We got to figure out a way to get the two points, even if a player goes out.”
The 30-year-old Matheson of Pointe-Claire, Que., led all Canadiens defencemen with 62 points and a 25:33 average ice time last season.
With his absence, rookie sensation Lane Hutson played a whopping 30:05 in only his seventh NHL game. The next closest player? Kaiden Guhle at 23:09.
Head coach Martin St. Louis was impressed with how the 20-year-old Hutson handled the challenge.
“Lane doesn’t take a shift off,” head coach Martin St. Louis said. “I love the consistency of his compete level, and he drives possession. For a guy who played 30 minutes, I think he gave everything he could to try and help the team.
“I’m not surprised. I know it’s challenging at this level, losing Mike definitely made him play many minutes, chasing the game made him play many minutes, but I just love his compete level.”
Canadiens fans have been clamouring for Hutson — a five-foot-nine, 162-pound defenceman with world-class skill — to take Matheson’s spot on the No. 1 power play.
The Canadiens, however, went 0-for-3 with Hutson running the show after Matheson went down. In the first instance, Kirby Dach took a hooking penalty early in the man-advantage to end it. On the second, the Canadiens failed to generate any zone time.
The third came in the final minutes, but the Kings buried an empty-netter.
“It wasn’t a lack of opportunity, lots of ice time, lots of shifts,” Hutson said. “It was good, it was fun, but obviously you want to be on the other side of it, winning.
“Means a lot (to get that opportunity), but obviously, you want to get more out of that opportunity. It’s a lot of ice, and you want to keep taking steps in the right direction.”
‘IMMATURE EFFORT’
The Canadiens fell to a Kings team that had lost three straight games and was coming off a 6-2 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs on Wednesday night.
Under those circumstances, the Canadiens were brutally honest with themselves after the game.
“Definitely disappointed,” captain Nick Suzuki said. “It was an immature effort from us, especially with them playing yesterday and getting in late, so I think we gave them too much life, and let them feel comfortable in the game. It’s on us to be a lot better than that.”
Before the game, St. Louis stressed the need for a good first period against a fatigued Los Angeles side. That’s not what he saw Thursday night.
“I think we had 14 turnovers in the first period. It’s unacceptable. It gives them life,” he said. “Then you’re chasing the game for the second half of it — we didn’t play to our standard.
“I’m really disappointed. Really disappointed.”
BIG SAVE DAVE
Kings goalie David Rittich played his second game in two nights — an unusual occurrence in this day and age of the NHL. He made 25 saves after allowing four goals on 14 shots in Toronto.
“We always believe in him anyway, but he performed today pretty well and bounced back,” defenceman Vladislav Gavrikov said. “It’s probably like most important for himself, that’s huge, and for the team. He played outstanding today.”
LONG ROAD
The Kings are opening the season on a seven-game road trip because of renovations at Crypto.com Arena. They’ve collected six of a possible 10 points so far.
“Pretty much worse (than expected),” forward Phillip Danault said. “We’ve been on the road for three weeks … It’s good team-bonding, whether we should do it again I’m not sure, but it has turned out well let’s say with six points out of 10.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
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