Ontario Chamber of Commerce forecasts uptick in provincial economy on heels of vaccination rollout - BayToday.ca | Canada News Media
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Ontario Chamber of Commerce forecasts uptick in provincial economy on heels of vaccination rollout – BayToday.ca

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After a steep 5.6 per cent drop in provincial GDP growth last year, the Ontario Chamber of Commerce predicts a “moderate” 4.8 per cent rebound in 2021 fuelled by expectations of a vaccination rollout and a re-opening of the economy.

That was one of the highlights in the chamber’s annual Ontario Economic Report released on Jan. 28, highlighting the year that was 2020 and what lies ahead.

“The current health and economic crisis have had a considerable negative impact on our economy,” said chamber president-CEO Rocco Rossi in a news release.

“Only 21 percent of businesses are confident in Ontario’s economic outlook—a historic low—reflecting the stark reality in which businesses continue to grapple with the financial and logistical challenges of operating under a pandemic.”

This year’s report said those businesses that require considerable face-to-face contact have been the hardest hit, namely the accommodation and food services; arts, entertainment, and recreation; and retail sectors.

The chamber’s findings indicate that employment growth declined throughout the province with women, lower-income, racialized, new immigrant, and younger Ontarians suffering the biggest job losses. Every region of the province felt the impacts of the recession, though some considerably more than others.

“No business, region, sector, or demographic should be left behind in the pursuit of economic recovery and growth,” report co-author Daniel Safayeni said in the release.

“Support programs and pro-growth policies should be targeted toward those experiencing the most pronounced challenges. A focus on re-skilling as well as widespread access to broadband infrastructure and capital will be necessary to the revival of small business and entrepreneurship as well as an inclusive and robust economic recovery.”

The report said the pandemic has had a disproportionate impact on small businesses and entrepreneurs as well as specific regions, sectors, and demographics, highlighting the major vulnerabilities and opportunities Ontario will face in the year ahead.

Among the chamber’s findings from 2020, only 21 percent of respondents in its survey of members expressed confidence in the province’s economic outlook. Less than half of Ontario businesses (48 percent) are confident in the outlook of their own organizations over the next year.

Small businesses are more pessimistic about Ontario’s outlook than larger ones. Only 20 percent of small businesses expressed confidence in Ontario’s economy, compared to 27 percent of medium and large businesses.

Many survey respondents said their organizations shrank between April and September as employment growth declined throughout the province in 2020, with 47 percent of organizations indicating they let employees go due to COVID-19.

“The prolonged nature of the crisis, rising case counts, and uncertainty around vaccine deployment timelines have taken a toll on employers and Ontarians across the province. Yet, Ontario has a proven track-record of resilience and recovery. Our long-term prosperity will depend on all levels of government, business, chambers of commerce and boards of trade working together toward economic recovery,” said Rossi.

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Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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