Ontario could run out of ICU beds, ventilators in 37 days even if COVID-19 rates cut in half: study - Yahoo News Canada | Canada News Media
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Ontario could run out of ICU beds, ventilators in 37 days even if COVID-19 rates cut in half: study – Yahoo News Canada

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A new study by some of Ontario’s leading medical researchers paints an alarming picture of the strain on the health-care system as the number of COVID-19 cases continues to rise, suggesting the province will run out of intensive-care beds and ventilators in just 37 days, even if it manages to cut current infection rates in half. 

The study, by a team from the University of Toronto, University Health Network and Sunnybrook Hospital, among other institutions, warns of “significant strain” on crucial health-care resources in the weeks ahead, calling for measures to “rapidly identify and create opportunities for additional capacity to care for critically ill patients.”

As of Thursday, Ontario has 258 confirmed cases. Of those, five are considered resolved, with the virus linked to two deaths.

Over the past eight days, since March 12, the daily increase in new COVID-19 case numbers in Ontario has averaged 26 per cent. Since Monday, the rate of increase has slowed, but has still averaged 15.6 per cent daily over the past four days.

“Our simulation using a ‘conservative scenario’ of a daily 7.5 per cent increase of cases predicts that Ontario’s ICU bed and ventilator resources will be depleted in approximately 37 days,” says the report published Wednesday evening.

“Ward beds will be full and unable to accommodate new patients in approximately seven weeks.”

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Goal to help leaders&nbsp;make informed decisions” data-reactid=”18″>Goal to help leaders make informed decisions

It’s a startling conclusion, but one that Beate Sander, lead study author and scientist at the University Health Network, says isn’t meant to spark panic.

Instead, she says, the goal is to put the pressures on the healthcare system into context so that medical and political leaders can make informed decisions.

The study authors acknowledge their modelling is based on a number of key assumptions:

  • They begin with a starting point of 250 cases, which Ontario hit Thursday. 
  • They assume that 19 per cent of cases will require hospitalization.
  • They assume that 26 per cent of hospitalized patients will require an ICU bed.   
  • They assume an average ICU stay will be eight days long.

With those assumptions in mind, they predict the following outcomes:

  • If Ontario can free up 25 per cent of ICU beds for COVID-19 patients, resources will be depleted in 37 days.
  • If 75 per cent of ICU beds can be allocated to COVID-19 patients, resources can last 52 days.
  • If, on top of 75 percent of ICU beds, Ontario can make available some 2,000 more beds and 600 additional ventilators, resources can last 60 days.

The models don’t account for the impact of the recent border restrictions or school closures — measures Sander hopes will slow the rate of infection and ease the pressure on Ontario’s already strained health-care system.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Social-distancing likely needed for 2 months or more” data-reactid=”33″>Social-distancing likely needed for 2 months or more

“I think if we are really diligent with all the public-health measures, I think we can do better… What we call the ‘conservative scenario’ might be the likely scenario — but I’m hoping for something even less severe.”

We need to be prepared for exactly the kind of predictions that this group is suggesting. – Dr. Anand Kumar , Winnipeg Health Sciences Centre

So far, the daily growth rate has fallen below the 7.5 per cent mark only once since March 10. That was on Tuesday, when only 12 new positive cases were confirmed, an increase of 6.8 per cent from the previous day.

Flattening the curve of infection and increasing the province’s access to beds and ventilators could extend the life of the system to two months, says Sander. But expect to remain in your home for at least another four weeks, she adds.

“All my epidemiologist colleagues will tell you we probably need to have it in place for much longer …  For sure, more than four weeks and probably more than two months,” Sander said.

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Radio-Canada

Health Minister Christine Elliott insisted Ontario is “building capacity,” when asked about the study at a news conference Thursday.

“We don’t know exactly what’s going to happen but we do know that the pressures on our health-care system are going to increase,” Elliott said.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="Province working to increase capacity” data-reactid=”66″>Province working to increase capacity

Elliott said the province is working to increase the number of available beds, and recently increased its in-house supply of ventilators by 300. The province is also in talks with auto-parts manufacturers about possibly retooling their equipment to help produce ventilators.

“Were also looking at other alternative measures where we can perhaps place some people who are at an alternate level of care that are currently in our hospitals to a setting that is going to be safe for them and appropriate for them,” Elliott added.

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Dr. Anand Kumar, a critical-care doctor at Winnipeg Health Sciences Centre, conducted similar modelling during Canada’s H1N1 outbreak of 2009 with a group of medical professionals with the Critical Care – Infectious Diseases Network, Canada.

That virus had a similar rate of infectious spread and risk of death to COVID-19, he told CBC News. 

But there was one key difference. With H1N1, an anti-viral was available almost immediately and a vaccine was ready in about five months.

Without them, he says, the modelling looked very much like Sander’s. 

“I think the results are well within the realm of possibility,” Kumar said of the COVID-19 study.

<p class="canvas-atom canvas-text Mb(1.0em) Mb(0)–sm Mt(0.8em)–sm" type="text" content="‘A really risky situation’” data-reactid=”94″>‘A really risky situation’

Kumar pointed out in a recent newspaper op-ed that Canada’s hospitals typically operate at 90-to-95 per cent capacity and were stretched with this year’s flu season alone. 

“This is a really risky situation and we need to be prepared for exactly the kind of predictions that this group is suggesting,” he said, calling for a more coordinated approach to social distancing practices across the country. 

The researchers behind the COVID-19 study add their model doesn’t take into consideration what happens if Ontario can boost its resources. If the province’s ventilator stockpile grows, the modelling could become much more promising.

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One other factor they don’t account for has to do with human resources. The study assumes all beds are fully staffed. Nurses, doctors and medical staff becoming ill could throw the projections out the window.

“A ventilator alone isn’t that helpful. So there needs to be ventilator and there needs to be an ICU bed and there needs to be a qualified staff … Just the technology alone, it’s not going to do it,” Sander pointed out. 

Asked about the study Wednesday afternoon, Ontario’s Associate Medical Officer of Health Dr. Barbara Yaffe suggested treating the results with caution.

“At the end of the day they are modelling, and that may or may not reflect what happens,” she said.

The study authors advise caution too, saying their model is preliminary and evolving, with new data every hour that could change the odds. And with much of Ontario doing its part to self-isolate, the goal is that those odds change for the better.

Asked if Ontario can bring the daily growth rate of new cases below 7.5 per cent, the province’s Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. David Williams responded, “I’d like to think we can.”

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What’s the greatest holiday gift: lips, hair, skin? Give the gift of great skin this holiday season

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Give the gift of great skin this holiday season

Skinstitut Holiday Gift Kits take the stress out of gifting

Toronto, October 31, 2024 – Beauty gifts are at the top of holiday wish lists this year, and Laser Clinics Canada, a leader in advanced beauty treatments and skincare, is taking the pressure out of seasonal shopping. Today, Laser Clincs Canada announces the arrival of its 2024 Holiday Gift Kits, courtesy of Skinstitut, the exclusive skincare line of Laser Clinics Group.

In time for the busy shopping season, the limited-edition Holiday Gifts Kits are available in Laser Clinics locations in the GTA and Ottawa. Clinics are conveniently located in popular shopping centers, including Hillcrest Mall, Square One, CF Sherway Gardens, Scarborough Town Centre, Rideau Centre, Union Station and CF Markville. These limited-edition Kits are available on a first come, first served basis.

“These kits combine our best-selling products, bundled to address the most relevant skin concerns we’re seeing among our clients,” says Christina Ho, Senior Brand & LAM Manager at Laser Clinics Canada. “With several price points available, the kits offer excellent value and suit a variety of gift-giving needs, from those new to cosmeceuticals to those looking to level up their skincare routine. What’s more, these kits are priced with a savings of up to 33 per cent so gift givers can save during the holiday season.

There are two kits to select from, each designed to address key skin concerns and each with a unique theme — Brightening Basics and Hydration Heroes.

Brightening Basics is a mix of everyday essentials for glowing skin for all skin types. The bundle comes in a sleek pink, reusable case and includes three full-sized products: 200ml gentle cleanser, 50ml Moisture Defence (normal skin) and 30ml1% Hyaluronic Complex Serum. The Brightening Basics kit is available at $129, a saving of 33 per cent.

Hydration Heroes is a mix of hydration essentials and active heroes that cater to a wide variety of clients. A perfect stocking stuffer, this bundle includes four deluxe products: Moisture 15 15 ml Defence for normal skin, 10 ml 1% Hyaluronic Complex Serum, 10 ml Retinol Serum and 50 ml Expert Squalane Cleansing Oil. The kit retails at $59.

In addition to the 2024 Holiday Gifts Kits, gift givers can easily add a Laser Clinic Canada gift card to the mix. Offering flexibility, recipients can choose from a wide range of treatments offered by Laser Clinics Canada, or they can expand their collection of exclusive Skinstitut products.

 

Brightening Basics 2024 Holiday Gift Kit by Skinstitut, available exclusively at Laser Clincs Canada clinics and online at skinstitut.ca.

Hydration Heroes 2024 Holiday Gift Kit by Skinstitut – available exclusively at Laser Clincs Canada clinics and online at skinstitut.ca.

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Here is how to prepare your online accounts for when you die

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LONDON (AP) — Most people have accumulated a pile of data — selfies, emails, videos and more — on their social media and digital accounts over their lifetimes. What happens to it when we die?

It’s wise to draft a will spelling out who inherits your physical assets after you’re gone, but don’t forget to take care of your digital estate too. Friends and family might treasure files and posts you’ve left behind, but they could get lost in digital purgatory after you pass away unless you take some simple steps.

Here’s how you can prepare your digital life for your survivors:

Apple

The iPhone maker lets you nominate a “ legacy contact ” who can access your Apple account’s data after you die. The company says it’s a secure way to give trusted people access to photos, files and messages. To set it up you’ll need an Apple device with a fairly recent operating system — iPhones and iPads need iOS or iPadOS 15.2 and MacBooks needs macOS Monterey 12.1.

For iPhones, go to settings, tap Sign-in & Security and then Legacy Contact. You can name one or more people, and they don’t need an Apple ID or device.

You’ll have to share an access key with your contact. It can be a digital version sent electronically, or you can print a copy or save it as a screenshot or PDF.

Take note that there are some types of files you won’t be able to pass on — including digital rights-protected music, movies and passwords stored in Apple’s password manager. Legacy contacts can only access a deceased user’s account for three years before Apple deletes the account.

Google

Google takes a different approach with its Inactive Account Manager, which allows you to share your data with someone if it notices that you’ve stopped using your account.

When setting it up, you need to decide how long Google should wait — from three to 18 months — before considering your account inactive. Once that time is up, Google can notify up to 10 people.

You can write a message informing them you’ve stopped using the account, and, optionally, include a link to download your data. You can choose what types of data they can access — including emails, photos, calendar entries and YouTube videos.

There’s also an option to automatically delete your account after three months of inactivity, so your contacts will have to download any data before that deadline.

Facebook and Instagram

Some social media platforms can preserve accounts for people who have died so that friends and family can honor their memories.

When users of Facebook or Instagram die, parent company Meta says it can memorialize the account if it gets a “valid request” from a friend or family member. Requests can be submitted through an online form.

The social media company strongly recommends Facebook users add a legacy contact to look after their memorial accounts. Legacy contacts can do things like respond to new friend requests and update pinned posts, but they can’t read private messages or remove or alter previous posts. You can only choose one person, who also has to have a Facebook account.

You can also ask Facebook or Instagram to delete a deceased user’s account if you’re a close family member or an executor. You’ll need to send in documents like a death certificate.

TikTok

The video-sharing platform says that if a user has died, people can submit a request to memorialize the account through the settings menu. Go to the Report a Problem section, then Account and profile, then Manage account, where you can report a deceased user.

Once an account has been memorialized, it will be labeled “Remembering.” No one will be able to log into the account, which prevents anyone from editing the profile or using the account to post new content or send messages.

X

It’s not possible to nominate a legacy contact on Elon Musk’s social media site. But family members or an authorized person can submit a request to deactivate a deceased user’s account.

Passwords

Besides the major online services, you’ll probably have dozens if not hundreds of other digital accounts that your survivors might need to access. You could just write all your login credentials down in a notebook and put it somewhere safe. But making a physical copy presents its own vulnerabilities. What if you lose track of it? What if someone finds it?

Instead, consider a password manager that has an emergency access feature. Password managers are digital vaults that you can use to store all your credentials. Some, like Keeper,Bitwarden and NordPass, allow users to nominate one or more trusted contacts who can access their keys in case of an emergency such as a death.

But there are a few catches: Those contacts also need to use the same password manager and you might have to pay for the service.

___

Is there a tech challenge you need help figuring out? Write to us at onetechtip@ap.org with your questions.

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Pediatric group says doctors should regularly screen kids for reading difficulties

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The Canadian Paediatric Society says doctors should regularly screen children for reading difficulties and dyslexia, calling low literacy a “serious public health concern” that can increase the risk of other problems including anxiety, low self-esteem and behavioural issues, with lifelong consequences.

New guidance issued Wednesday says family doctors, nurses, pediatricians and other medical professionals who care for school-aged kids are in a unique position to help struggling readers access educational and specialty supports, noting that identifying problems early couldhelp kids sooner — when it’s more effective — as well as reveal other possible learning or developmental issues.

The 10 recommendations include regular screening for kids aged four to seven, especially if they belong to groups at higher risk of low literacy, including newcomers to Canada, racialized Canadians and Indigenous Peoples. The society says this can be done in a two-to-three-minute office-based assessment.

Other tips encourage doctors to look for conditions often seen among poor readers such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder; to advocate for early literacy training for pediatric and family medicine residents; to liaise with schools on behalf of families seeking help; and to push provincial and territorial education ministries to integrate evidence-based phonics instruction into curriculums, starting in kindergarten.

Dr. Scott McLeod, one of the authors and chair of the society’s mental health and developmental disabilities committee, said a key goal is to catch kids who may be falling through the cracks and to better connect families to resources, including quicker targeted help from schools.

“Collaboration in this area is so key because we need to move away from the silos of: everything educational must exist within the educational portfolio,” McLeod said in an interview from Calgary, where he is a developmental pediatrician at Alberta Children’s Hospital.

“Reading, yes, it’s education, but it’s also health because we know that literacy impacts health. So I think that a statement like this opens the window to say: Yes, parents can come to their health-care provider to get advice, get recommendations, hopefully start a collaboration with school teachers.”

McLeod noted that pediatricians already look for signs of low literacy in young children by way of a commonly used tool known as the Rourke Baby Record, which offers a checklist of key topics, such as nutrition and developmental benchmarks, to cover in a well-child appointment.

But he said questions about reading could be “a standing item” in checkups and he hoped the society’s statement to medical professionals who care for children “enhances their confidence in being a strong advocate for the child” while spurring partnerships with others involved in a child’s life such as teachers and psychologists.

The guidance said pediatricians also play a key role in detecting and monitoring conditions that often coexist with difficulty reading such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, but McLeod noted that getting such specific diagnoses typically involves a referral to a specialist, during which time a child continues to struggle.

He also acknowledged that some schools can be slow to act without a specific diagnosis from a specialist, and even then a child may end up on a wait list for school interventions.

“Evidence-based reading instruction shouldn’t have to wait for some of that access to specialized assessments to occur,” he said.

“My hope is that (by) having an existing statement or document written by the Canadian Paediatric Society … we’re able to skip a few steps or have some of the early interventions present,” he said.

McLeod added that obtaining specific assessments from medical specialists is “definitely beneficial and advantageous” to know where a child is at, “but having that sort of clear, thorough assessment shouldn’t be a barrier to intervention starting.”

McLeod said the society was partly spurred to act by 2022’s “Right to Read Inquiry Report” from the Ontario Human Rights Commission, which made 157 recommendations to address inequities related to reading instruction in that province.

He called the new guidelines “a big reminder” to pediatric providers, family doctors, school teachers and psychologists of the importance of literacy.

“Early identification of reading difficulty can truly change the trajectory of a child’s life.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 23, 2024.

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