Ontario says COVID-19 community cases peaked. What does that mean for Canada? - Global News | Canada News Media
Connect with us

News

Ontario says COVID-19 community cases peaked. What does that mean for Canada? – Global News

Published

 on


Modelling released Monday suggests Ontario has reached the peak of the first wave of the novel coronavirus outbreak, sparking optimism that the rest of Canada could see similar results in the coming weeks.

Projections released in early April had initially predicted Ontario could see roughly 80,000 cases and 1,600 COVID-19 deaths by April 30.


READ MORE:
Ontario’s coronavirus numbers may have peaked, new modelling suggests

But, health officials said on Monday that the cumulative infections for the span of the outbreak will likely be “substantially lower,” at around 20,000.

Earlier models had also predicted the first wave of the virus would peak in May, but officials say that thanks to public health interventions, including widespread adherence to physical distancing, the peak has come sooner.

By Tuesday morning, there were 11,735 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Ontario, with 622 reported deaths.

Story continues below advertisement

Here’s a closer look at the modelling and what Ontario’s progress would mean for the rest of Canada.






1:11
Coronavirus outbreak: Ford says Ontario planning framework for future ‘gradual, measured, and safe’ reopening


Coronavirus outbreak: Ford says Ontario planning framework for future ‘gradual, measured, and safe’ reopening

What does this mean?

Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist at Toronto General Hospital, said the modelling from Ontario is “great news.”

“The modelling certainly suggests that we have hit the peak,” he said. “That’s fantastic. It means we are seeing a plateau in the number of new cases per day.”

Bogoch said the modelling proves the stringent public health measures — including physical distancing — have been “overwhelmingly” successful.

These are great signs. There’s hard evidence that these are helping,” he said.

“This is truly reducing transmission in community settings. This is truly saving lives and we need to keep at it until we get a reduction in the number of cases per day, not just a plateau with the number of new cases per day.”

[ Sign up for our Health IQ newsletter for the latest coronavirus updates ]

What about the rest of Canada?

Bogoch said the modelling from Ontario is further proof that people across the country are taking the pandemic “very seriously.”

“Ahead of Ontario was B.C. and Alberta,” he said. “They started flattening the curve ahead of [Ontario], and now we’re flatting our curve, and there’s signs of this in Quebec as well, and I think we’ll start to see this in the rest of the country.”

Story continues below advertisement


READ MORE:
A look at when and how Canada could reopen after COVID-19 closures

Dionne Aleman, an industrial engineering professor at the University of Toronto, said the results in Ontario are a “promising indicator” that Canada is headed in the right direction.

She cautioned, though, that it is difficult to transfer results from one province to another.

“It’s not yet a definitive statement that, yes, absolutely, things are going OK and things are going to be fine if we just keep doing what we’re doing. But definitely, there is room to be very optimistic,” she said.






4:06
Coronavirus outbreak: Trudeau says they may look at loosening virus-control measures in summer


Coronavirus outbreak: Trudeau says they may look at loosening virus-control measures in summer

Aleman said the next two to three weeks will “really let us know for certain” if we have been successful in flattening the curve elsewhere in the country.

For now, Aleman said what is most important is continuing to practise physical distancing and making sure we abide by the public health measures in place to stem further spread of the virus.

“If we have, in fact, reached our peak, our plateau, it happened because of what we’re doing, and it means that we should keep on doing this thing that’s working,” she said.

Aleman added Canada cannot “let up off the gas” until we know for certain we are on the other side of the curve.

Story continues below advertisement

Setbacks expected

Dr. Susan Bondy, an associate professor at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto said while the country appears to be “working in the right direction,” it is likely that all provinces will experience setbacks.

“There’s going to be new outbreaks,” she said. “Most of the population is still vulnerable, and viruses are nasty and little outbreaks are to be expected when you still have a huge proportion of the population vulnerable.”


READ MORE:
Calls for probe into China’s coronavirus response mount — will Canada take part?

But, Bondy said what is “really important” is that the public health system has been ramping up to prepare.

“It takes time and resources to ramp up our public health response,” she said. “And it is a very strong response now with testing that didn’t exist months ago, with the resources for contact tracing that didn’t exist a few months ago, [and] with data sharing that didn’t exist a few months ago.”

She said because of this preparation, it would be reasonable to assume subsequent outbreaks would be smaller than the initial wave.

“We’re in a better shape,” she said. “We can absolutely expect that future outbreaks would be smaller.”

Lifting restrictions

Bogoch said officials will need to wait until there is a drop in cases — not just a plateau — before thinking about lifting restrictions.

He said it is likely this will happen at different stages across the provinces.

Story continues below advertisement

“If we start to open things up in one place, other places might not be ready,” he said. “So we have to be very careful.”






2:49
Coronavirus outbreak: Canada now at 36,216 confirmed cases of COVID-19, 1,611 deaths


Coronavirus outbreak: Canada now at 36,216 confirmed cases of COVID-19, 1,611 deaths

Bogoch added he expects there will be coordination across the country when it comes to deciding when and how to lift restrictions.

“We don’t want to set anyone back prematurely,” he said.

Dr. Suzanne Sicchia, an associate professor at the Interdisciplinary Centre for Health and Society at the University of Toronto Scarborough, echoed Bogoch’s remarks, saying the decision to lift restrictions is one that can’t be rushed.


READ MORE:
Coronavirus: Experts caution against the ‘inexact science’ of COVID-19 modelling

“No one wants to see a surge in cases, something we are now seeing in Singapore — a country that was held-up as something of a COVID-19 success story for its ability to initially contain the virus,” she wrote in an email to Global News.

“This is still a dangerous virus,” she said. “We simply can’t rush this.”

— With files from Gabby Rodriguez

© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)



Source link

News

STD epidemic slows as new syphilis and gonorrhea cases fall in US

Published

 on

 

NEW YORK (AP) — The U.S. syphilis epidemic slowed dramatically last year, gonorrhea cases fell and chlamydia cases remained below prepandemic levels, according to federal data released Tuesday.

The numbers represented some good news about sexually transmitted diseases, which experienced some alarming increases in past years due to declining condom use, inadequate sex education, and reduced testing and treatment when the COVID-19 pandemic hit.

Last year, cases of the most infectious stages of syphilis fell 10% from the year before — the first substantial decline in more than two decades. Gonorrhea cases dropped 7%, marking a second straight year of decline and bringing the number below what it was in 2019.

“I’m encouraged, and it’s been a long time since I felt that way” about the nation’s epidemic of sexually transmitted infections, said the CDC’s Dr. Jonathan Mermin. “Something is working.”

More than 2.4 million cases of syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia were diagnosed and reported last year — 1.6 million cases of chlamydia, 600,000 of gonorrhea, and more than 209,000 of syphilis.

Syphilis is a particular concern. For centuries, it was a common but feared infection that could deform the body and end in death. New cases plummeted in the U.S. starting in the 1940s when infection-fighting antibiotics became widely available, and they trended down for a half century after that. By 2002, however, cases began rising again, with men who have sex with other men being disproportionately affected.

The new report found cases of syphilis in their early, most infectious stages dropped 13% among gay and bisexual men. It was the first such drop since the agency began reporting data for that group in the mid-2000s.

However, there was a 12% increase in the rate of cases of unknown- or later-stage syphilis — a reflection of people infected years ago.

Cases of syphilis in newborns, passed on from infected mothers, also rose. There were nearly 4,000 cases, including 279 stillbirths and infant deaths.

“This means pregnant women are not being tested often enough,” said Dr. Jeffrey Klausner, a professor of medicine at the University of Southern California.

What caused some of the STD trends to improve? Several experts say one contributor is the growing use of an antibiotic as a “morning-after pill.” Studies have shown that taking doxycycline within 72 hours of unprotected sex cuts the risk of developing syphilis, gonorrhea and chlamydia.

In June, the CDC started recommending doxycycline as a morning-after pill, specifically for gay and bisexual men and transgender women who recently had an STD diagnosis. But health departments and organizations in some cities had been giving the pills to people for a couple years.

Some experts believe that the 2022 mpox outbreak — which mainly hit gay and bisexual men — may have had a lingering effect on sexual behavior in 2023, or at least on people’s willingness to get tested when strange sores appeared.

Another factor may have been an increase in the number of health workers testing people for infections, doing contact tracing and connecting people to treatment. Congress gave $1.2 billion to expand the workforce over five years, including $600 million to states, cities and territories that get STD prevention funding from CDC.

Last year had the “most activity with that funding throughout the U.S.,” said David Harvey, executive director of the National Coalition of STD Directors.

However, Congress ended the funds early as a part of last year’s debt ceiling deal, cutting off $400 million. Some people already have lost their jobs, said a spokeswoman for Harvey’s organization.

Still, Harvey said he had reasons for optimism, including the growing use of doxycycline and a push for at-home STD test kits.

Also, there are reasons to think the next presidential administration could get behind STD prevention. In 2019, then-President Donald Trump announced a campaign to “eliminate” the U.S. HIV epidemic by 2030. (Federal health officials later clarified that the actual goal was a huge reduction in new infections — fewer than 3,000 a year.)

There were nearly 32,000 new HIV infections in 2022, the CDC estimates. But a boost in public health funding for HIV could also also help bring down other sexually transmitted infections, experts said.

“When the government puts in resources, puts in money, we see declines in STDs,” Klausner said.

___

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

Source link

Continue Reading

News

World’s largest active volcano Mauna Loa showed telltale warning signs before erupting in 2022

Published

 on

 

WASHINGTON (AP) — Scientists can’t know precisely when a volcano is about to erupt, but they can sometimes pick up telltale signs.

That happened two years ago with the world’s largest active volcano. About two months before Mauna Loa spewed rivers of glowing orange molten lava, geologists detected small earthquakes nearby and other signs, and they warned residents on Hawaii‘s Big Island.

Now a study of the volcano’s lava confirms their timeline for when the molten rock below was on the move.

“Volcanoes are tricky because we don’t get to watch directly what’s happening inside – we have to look for other signs,” said Erik Klemetti Gonzalez, a volcano expert at Denison University, who was not involved in the study.

Upswelling ground and increased earthquake activity near the volcano resulted from magma rising from lower levels of Earth’s crust to fill chambers beneath the volcano, said Kendra Lynn, a research geologist at the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory and co-author of a new study in Nature Communications.

When pressure was high enough, the magma broke through brittle surface rock and became lava – and the eruption began in late November 2022. Later, researchers collected samples of volcanic rock for analysis.

The chemical makeup of certain crystals within the lava indicated that around 70 days before the eruption, large quantities of molten rock had moved from around 1.9 miles (3 kilometers) to 3 miles (5 kilometers) under the summit to a mile (2 kilometers) or less beneath, the study found. This matched the timeline the geologists had observed with other signs.

The last time Mauna Loa erupted was in 1984. Most of the U.S. volcanoes that scientists consider to be active are found in Hawaii, Alaska and the West Coast.

Worldwide, around 585 volcanoes are considered active.

Scientists can’t predict eruptions, but they can make a “forecast,” said Ben Andrews, who heads the global volcano program at the Smithsonian Institution and who was not involved in the study.

Andrews compared volcano forecasts to weather forecasts – informed “probabilities” that an event will occur. And better data about the past behavior of specific volcanos can help researchers finetune forecasts of future activity, experts say.

(asterisk)We can look for similar patterns in the future and expect that there’s a higher probability of conditions for an eruption happening,” said Klemetti Gonzalez.

___

The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Science and Educational Media Group. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

News

Waymo’s robotaxis now open to anyone who wants a driverless ride in Los Angeles

Published

 on

 

Waymo on Tuesday opened its robotaxi service to anyone who wants a ride around Los Angeles, marking another milestone in the evolution of self-driving car technology since the company began as a secret project at Google 15 years ago.

The expansion comes eight months after Waymo began offering rides in Los Angeles to a limited group of passengers chosen from a waiting list that had ballooned to more than 300,000 people. Now, anyone with the Waymo One smartphone app will be able to request a ride around an 80-square-mile (129-square-kilometer) territory spanning the second largest U.S. city.

After Waymo received approval from California regulators to charge for rides 15 months ago, the company initially chose to launch its operations in San Francisco before offering a limited service in Los Angeles.

Before deciding to compete against conventional ride-hailing pioneers Uber and Lyft in California, Waymo unleashed its robotaxis in Phoenix in 2020 and has been steadily extending the reach of its service in that Arizona city ever since.

Driverless rides are proving to be more than just a novelty. Waymo says it now transports more than 50,000 weekly passengers in its robotaxis, a volume of business numbers that helped the company recently raise $5.6 billion from its corporate parent Alphabet and a list of other investors that included venture capital firm Andreesen Horowitz and financial management firm T. Rowe Price.

“Our service has matured quickly and our riders are embracing the many benefits of fully autonomous driving,” Waymo co-CEO Tekedra Mawakana said in a blog post.

Despite its inroads, Waymo is still believed to be losing money. Although Alphabet doesn’t disclose Waymo’s financial results, the robotaxi is a major part of an “Other Bets” division that had suffered an operating loss of $3.3 billion through the first nine months of this year, down from a setback of $4.2 billion at the same time last year.

But Waymo has come a long way since Google began working on self-driving cars in 2009 as part of project “Chauffeur.” Since its 2016 spinoff from Google, Waymo has established itself as the clear leader in a robotaxi industry that’s getting more congested.

Electric auto pioneer Tesla is aiming to launch a rival “Cybercab” service by 2026, although its CEO Elon Musk said he hopes the company can get the required regulatory clearances to operate in Texas and California by next year.

Tesla’s projected timeline for competing against Waymo has been met with skepticism because Musk has made unfulfilled promises about the company’s self-driving car technology for nearly a decade.

Meanwhile, Waymo’s robotaxis have driven more than 20 million fully autonomous miles and provided more than 2 million rides to passengers without encountering a serious accident that resulted in its operations being sidelined.

That safety record is a stark contrast to one of its early rivals, Cruise, a robotaxi service owned by General Motors. Cruise’s California license was suspended last year after one of its driverless cars in San Francisco dragged a jaywalking pedestrian who had been struck by a different car driven by a human.

Cruise is now trying to rebound by joining forces with Uber to make some of its services available next year in U.S. cities that still haven’t been announced. But Waymo also has forged a similar alliance with Uber to dispatch its robotaxi in Atlanta and Austin, Texas next year.

Another robotaxi service, Amazon’s Zoox, is hoping to begin offering driverless rides to the general public in Las Vegas at some point next year before also launching in San Francisco.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending

Exit mobile version