The Ontario government will release its fall economic statement Thursday, as elevated interest rates and inflation continue to inject uncertainty into the province’s finances. 
Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy is scheduled to table the annual fiscal outlook in the legislature at 1 p.m. ET.
“This update will continue with our government’s targeted, responsible approach so we have the flexibility needed to get through this economic uncertainty while laying a strong foundation for future generations,” Bethlenfalvy told reporters at a news conference this week.
“This is a challenging time, but we should all be confident in Ontario’s economy, its workers and its people,” he added.
This latest fiscal update comes as Canada’s wider economy is showing clear signs of a slowdown, with the country’s GDP flat for at least two straight quarters. Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada’s overnight rate stands at five per cent after 10 consecutive hikes, while inflation has cooled but remains stubborn.
In addition to those economic headwinds, Premier Doug Ford’s government has been mired in months of controversy over the now-reversed Greenbelt land swaps and urban boundary expansions.
Brian Lewis, senior fellow at the Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy at the University of Toronto and formerly Ontario’s chief economist, says Bethlenfalvy could try to “change the channel” on those controversies with the economic statement.
“The government’s popularity and credibility has taken quite a hit over the Greenbelt scandal. So they’re going to be looking for opportunities to regain some credibility and regain some popularity,” he told CBC Toronto.
Bethlenfalvy has already announced several measures that he says will be part of the accompanying legislation to this fall’s economic statement. Those include extending the 5.7 cents per litre gas tax cut to June 2024 and eliminating the provincial portion of the HST on purpose-built rental units.
Lewis said he will be watching to see if the government’s deficit reduction program is still on track. In the spring budget, the Ministry of Finance projected a $1.3-billion deficit for this year, an estimate that remained unchanged in an August fiscal update. The province could begin running modest surpluses by 2024-2025 before reaching about $4.4 billion the following year, the budget projected.
Meanwhile, Ontario’s Big City Mayors, a group that represents municipalities with populations of more than 100,000, has asked the government to provide guidance on how cities will be made whole from potential losses from Bill 23, the province’s controversial housing legislation.
Both the Official Opposition NDP and Ontario Liberals released statements Wednesday calling on the government to reintroduce rent controls, which it removed in 2018, to help renters deal with the cost of living crisis.
The province’s fall economic statement also comes as municipalities across the province are struggling with increasing homelessness, mental health and addictions and the financial effects of climate change.
The Association of Municipalities of Ontario recently wrote to Ford to tell him that the “provincial-municipal fiscal framework is now broken.”
“In 2022, municipalities spent $3.8 billion more than they received in areas of provincial responsibility like social housing, long-term care, land ambulance, social services, and child care as a result of current cost sharing arrangements,” wrote Colin Best, association president and Halton Region councillor.
“Municipalities cannot continue to subsidize the provincial government in the face of mounting pressures.”
