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Ontario's 2nd wave of COVID-19 forecast to peak in October – CBC.ca

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Fresh projections suggest that Ontario’s second wave of COVID-19 will peak in mid- to late October and will likely send enough patients to intensive care that hospitals will need to scale back non-emergency surgeries.

The forecasts come from the COVID-19 Modelling Collaborative, a joint effort of scientists and physicians from the University of Toronto, University Health Network and Sunnybrook Hospital. 

Based on how quickly Ontario’s infection rate has been rising in recent weeks, the model projects the province is on track to exceed 1,000 new cases per day by the middle of October, unless stricter public health measures slow the accelerating spread.

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The average number of new cases reported daily in Ontario is currently running four times higher than what it was at the end of August. Premier Doug Ford’s government has since shrunk limits on the size of private gatherings, reduced opening hours for bars and ordered strip clubs to close.

On Sunday, Ontario’s Ministry of Health reported 112 patients in hospital with a confirmed case of COVID-19, nearly triple the number of two weeks ago. The research team says the impact of the second wave on Ontario’s hospitals will depend on the demographics of who gets infected in the coming weeks. 

The dotted line shows the current prediction for the start of Ontario’s second wave of COVID-19, based on work by a team of researchers from the University of Toronto, the University Health Network and Sunnybrook Hospital. The solid lines model how the case numbers will evolve if the second wave follows the patterns seen in Ontario in the spring (orange), in Michigan this summer (light grey), in the Australian state of Victoria (dark grey), or Italy in the pandemic’s first wave (black). (COVID-19 ModCollab)

“We are at this critical moment right now where we see case numbers increase and we don’t quite know yet where it’s going,” said Beate Sander, a scientist at the University Health Network and Canada Research Chair in economics of infectious diseases. 

“Right now, we have predominantly younger, healthy people (contracting COVID-19 in Ontario),” Sander said in an interview with CBC News. “But what we’ve seen in other jurisdictions is that it really spills over into other population groups.” 

The team of researchers has run four scenarios for how Ontario’s second wave could play out from here.

The best-case scenario would mimic Ontario’s first wave in March and April, when case numbers increased rapidly but were then reined in by a lockdown. 

Two moderate scenarios would resemble how a second wave hit jurisdictions comparable to Ontario: the Australian state of Victoria (home to Melbourne, a city of 5 million), and the U.S. state of Michigan. 

Long lines at testing centres, like this one pictured in Toronto on Sept. 21, 2020, mirror a spike in cases of COVID-19 provincial health officials link to people under 40 not following public health guidelines at social gatherings. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)

None of those three scenarios shows COVID-19 patients filling Ontario’s hospital wards or ICUs beyond their capacity. That happens only in the modellers’ worst-case scenario: a second wave as severe as the first wave that hit Italy when the pandemic began.

However, in all but the best-case scenario, the researchers foresee ICU demand that exceeds the capacity required for patients undergoing scheduled surgeries. 

“The really high-risk cancer surgeries, for instance, won’t be able to go ahead if the ICUs are overwhelmed with people who are showing up in the emergency department dying of COVID-19 associated pneumonia and respiratory failure,” said Dr. Kali Barrett, a critical care physician at the University Health Network and part of the modelling research team. 

The researchers stress that their modelling scenarios are simply forecasts. They use data on the proportion of people who have have ended up in hospital and ICUs while positive for the coronavirus, and project those onto Ontario’s current trend in new cases.

The shifting demographics of who’s getting infected with COVID-19 as the second wave builds makes it challenging for the researchers to forecast just how many people will need hospital treatment.

“The second wave in Spain and France started in the younger populations, but it is spreading to the elderly and the people who are more at risk of ending up in the intensive care unit or in the hospitals,” said Barrett in an interview with CBC News.

“It is just a matter of time until this virus, if it’s affecting the young populations, spreads into the elderly population,” she said. “We’re already starting to see that happening in Ontario.”

The latest figures from the province’s Ministry of Health show 227 people aged 70 or older with an active confirmed case of COVID-19. That number has increased 34 per cent in the space of a week.

Changes in the eligibility criteria for testing can also muddy the forecast. When testing is widespread and captures larger number of mild cases, the percentage who end up in hospital will be smaller than when testing is restricted to priority groups most likely to have the virus, as it was in Ontario in the spring. 

Ontario altered its “anyone can get a test” policy on Friday, so far fewer people without symptoms are now eligible for testing. 

ICU demand could lengthen surgical backlog 

Ontario has around 2,000 intensive care beds, and the province plans to add 139 in October. The province’s ICU beds are typically two-thirds occupied by patients whose cases have nothing to do with COVID-19, whether it’s a heart attack, car accident, or another critical illness. 

Since ICUs can’t actually function at 100 per cent occupancy full time, the researchers calculate that Ontario has around 475 beds available for non-emergency surgery patients and COVID patients. When scheduled surgeries are running at full pace, those patients take up all but 100 of those beds.

This graph forecasts what will happen in Ontario if the second wave resembles what happened in the Australian state of Victoria, home to the city of Melbourne. It would see some 1,200 patients in Ontario’s general hospital wards and 350 to 400 patients in intensive care (ICU) beds at the peak in late October. (COVID-19 ModCollab)

   

Their conclusion: if more than 100 people with COVID-19 need ICU care, they’d be competing for space with scheduled surgery cases. 

“Then we would have to make decisions in terms of who to treat,” said Sander. “Do we admit COVID patients or do we do (non-emergency) surgery?”

The projections suggest if Ontario’s second wave follows what happened in the Australian state of Victoria — a sharp spike in new infections that drops off quickly after a strict lockdown — some 350 to 400 people will need an ICU bed at peak demand in late October.

If the second wave in this province plays out as Michigan’s did — a rise in new infections that levels off but doesn’t slow down for a long time — the forecast is for more than 200 patients with COVID-19 in the ICUs from late October onwards. 

Figures published Sunday by the Ministry of Health show 28 ICU patients with a confirmed case of COVID-19.   

In Ontario’s first wave, the number of COVID-19 patients in ICU peaked at 264, while the number of people in hospital at one time peaked at 1,043. Non-emergency surgeries were postponed across the province.  

If the majority of Ontario’s second wave infections come among younger healthier people — as has been happening through September — hospitalization rates are expected be lower than in the spring. 

The modellers say ICU occupancy numbers will be of more critical concern than total hospitalization numbers because Ontario’s hospital system can far more easily free up general ward beds than it can make space in intensive care.   

That’s less about the available beds and ventilators, and more about the having enough doctors and nurses capable of the specialized care that ICU patients need.    

“You can’t just train people overnight to do this type of thing,” said Sander. “You can buy a lot of beds and you can buy a lot of ventilators, but you can’t get these highly qualified staff on the ground within a very short period of time.” 

Barrett agrees that human resources are the key limiting factor, and is concerned about how the second wave could hit hospital staff and their families. 

“The majority of people working in hospitals are in their 30s, 40s and 50s, so many of them have children who go to school,” she said. “If there is a massive outbreak amongst the younger population and school children, that’s a whole sector of our health workforce that won’t be able to come to work.”


Still have questions about COVID-19? These CBC News stories will help.

Is another lockdown coming in Ontario? What do we know about the Ford government’s fall plan?

CBC Queen’s Park reporter Mike Crawley obtained a draft copy of the plan

What’s the latest on where I should get tested?

It’s confusing, but here’s an explainer complete with a flow chart

What’s the most recent guidance on mask use?

Reporter Lauren Pelley took a look at what the experts are advising

What should I do about my COVID bubble?

With cases going up, even small gatherings are getting riskier

Who is getting COVID-19?

CBC News crunched the data from across Canada to get the clearest picture possible

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Cancer Awareness Month – Métis Nation of Alberta

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Cancer Awareness Month

Posted on: Apr 18, 2024

April is Cancer Awareness Month

As we recognize Cancer Awareness Month, we stand together to raise awareness, support those affected, advocate for prevention, early detection, and continued research towards a cure. Cancer is the leading cause of death for Métis women and the second leading cause of death for Métis men. The Otipemisiwak Métis Government of the Métis Nation Within Alberta is working hard to ensure that available supports for Métis Citizens battling cancer are culturally appropriate, comprehensive, and accessible by Métis Albertans at all stages of their cancer journey.

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Receiving a cancer diagnosis, whether for yourself or a loved one, can feel overwhelming, leaving you unsure of where to turn for support. In June, our government will be launching the Cancer Supports and Navigation Program which will further support Métis Albertans and their families experiencing cancer by connecting them to OMG-specific cancer resources, external resources, and providing navigation support through the health care system. This program will also include Métis-specific peer support groups for those affected by cancer.

With funding from the Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (CPAC) we have also developed the Métis Cancer Care Course to ensure that Métis Albertans have access to culturally safe and appropriate cancer services. This course is available to cancer care professionals across the country and provides an overview of who Métis people are, our culture, our approaches to health and wellbeing, our experiences with cancer care, and our cancer journey.

Together, we can make a difference in the fight against cancer and ensure equitable access to culturally safe and appropriate care for all Métis Albertans. Please click on the links below to learn more about the supports available for Métis Albertans, including our Compassionate Care: Cancer Transportation program.

I wish you all good health and happiness!

Bobbi Paul-Alook
Secretary of Health & Seniors

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Type 2 diabetes is not one-size-fits-all: Subtypes affect complications and treatment options – The Conversation

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You may have heard of Ozempic, the “miracle drug” for weight loss, but did you know that it was actually designed as a new treatment to manage diabetes? In Canada, diabetes affects approximately 10 per cent of the general population. Of those cases, 90 per cent have Type 2 diabetes.

This metabolic disorder is characterized by persistent high blood sugar levels, which can be accompanied by secondary health challenges, including a higher risk of stroke and kidney disease.

Locks and keys

In Type 2 diabetes, the body struggles to maintain blood sugar levels in an acceptable range. Every cell in the body needs sugar as an energy source, but too much sugar can be toxic to cells. This equilibrium needs to be tightly controlled and is regulated by a lock and key system.

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In the body’s attempt to manage blood sugar levels and ensure that cells receive the right amount of energy, the pancreatic hormone, insulin, functions like a key. Cells cover themselves with locks that respond perfectly to insulin keys to facilitate the entry of sugar into cells.

Unfortunately, this lock and key system doesn’t always perform as expected. The body can encounter difficulties producing an adequate number of insulin keys, and/or the locks can become stubborn and unresponsive to insulin.

All forms of diabetes share the challenge of high blood sugar levels; however, diabetes is not a singular condition; it exists as a spectrum. Although diabetes is broadly categorized into two main types, Type 1 and Type 2, each presents a diversity of subtypes, especially Type 2 diabetes.

These subtypes carry their own characteristics and risks, and do not respond uniformly to the same treatments.

To better serve people living with Type 2 diabetes, and to move away from a “one size fits all” approach, it is beneficial to understand which subtype of Type 2 diabetes a person lives with. When someone needs a blood transfusion, the medical team needs to know the patient’s blood type. It should be the same for diabetes so a tailored and effective game plan can be implemented.

This article explores four unique subtypes of Type 2 diabetes, shedding light on their causes, complications and some of their specific treatment avenues.

Severe insulin-deficient diabetes: We’re missing keys!

In severe insulin-deficient diabetes, beta cells limit production of the keys that unlock cells to allow entry of sugar from the blood.
(Lili Grieco-St-Pierre, Jennifer Bruin/Created with BioRender.com)

Insulin is produced by beta cells, which are found in the pancreas. In the severe insulin-deficient diabetes (SIDD) subtype, the key factories — the beta cells — are on strike. Ultimately, there are fewer keys in the body to unlock the cells and allow entry of sugar from the blood.

SIDD primarily affects younger, leaner individuals, and unfortunately, increases the risk of eye disease and blindness, among other complications. Why the beta cells go on strike remains largely unknown, but since there is an insulin deficiency, treatment often involves insulin injections.

Severe insulin-resistant diabetes: But it’s always locked!

A diagram of three closed locks and lots of keys

In severe insulin-resistant diabetes, the locks start ignoring the keys, triggering the beta cells to produce even more keys to compensate.
(Lili Grieco-St-Pierre, Jennifer Bruin/Created with BioRender.com)

In the severe insulin-resistant diabetes (SIRD) subtype, the locks are overstimulated and start ignoring the keys. As a result, the beta cells produce even more keys to compensate. This can be measured as high levels of insulin in the blood, also known as hyperinsulinemia.

This resistance to insulin is particularly prominent in individuals with higher body weight. Patients with SIRD have an increased risk of complications such as fatty liver disease. There are many treatment avenues for these patients but no consensus about the optimal approach; patients often require high doses of insulin.

Mild obesity-related diabetes: The locks are sticky!

Illustration of a lock and key

In mild obesity-related diabetes, the locks are ‘sticky,’ making it difficult for the keys to open the locks.
(Lili Grieco-St-Pierre, Jennifer Bruin/Created with BioRender.com)

Mild obesity-related (MOD) diabetes represents a nuanced aspect of Type 2 diabetes, often observed in individuals with higher body weight. Unlike more severe subtypes, MOD is characterized by a more measured response to insulin. The locks are “sticky,” so it is challenging for the key to click in place and open the lock. While MOD is connected to body weight, the comparatively less severe nature of MOD distinguishes it from other diabetes subtypes.

To minimize complications, treatment should include maintaining a healthy diet, managing body weight, and incorporating as much aerobic exercise as possible. This is where drugs like Ozempic can be prescribed to control the evolution of the disease, in part by managing body weight.

Mild age-related diabetes: I’m tired of controlling blood sugar!

Illustration of a lock and a beta cell

In people with mild age-related diabetes, both the locks and the beta cells that produce keys are tired, resulting in fewer keys and stubborn locks.
(Lili Grieco-St-Pierre, Jennifer Bruin/Created with BioRender.com)

Mild age-related diabetes (MARD) happens more often in older people and typically starts later in life. With time, the key factory is not as productive, and the locks become stubborn. People with MARD find it tricky to manage their blood sugar, but it usually doesn’t lead to severe complications.

Among the different subtypes of diabetes, MARD is the most common.

Unique locks, varied keys

While efforts have been made to classify diabetes subtypes, new subtypes are still being identified, making proper clinical assessment and treatment plans challenging.

In Canada, unique cases of Type 2 diabetes were identified in Indigenous children from Northern Manitoba and Northwestern Ontario by Dr. Heather Dean and colleagues in the 1980s and 90s. Despite initial skepticism from the scientific community, which typically associated Type 2 diabetes with adults rather than children, clinical teams persisted in identifying this as a distinct subtype of Type 2 diabetes, called childhood-onset Type 2 diabetes.




Read more:
Indigenous community research partnerships can help address health inequities


Childhood-onset Type 2 diabetes is on the rise across Canada, but disproportionately affects Indigenous youth. It is undoubtedly linked to the intergenerational trauma associated with colonization in these communities. While many factors are likely involved, recent studies have discovered that exposure of a fetus to Type 2 diabetes during pregnancy increases the risk that the baby will develop diabetes later in life.

Acknowledging this distinct subtype of Type 2 diabetes in First Nations communities has led to the implementation of a community-based health action plan aimed at addressing the unique challenges faced by Indigenous Peoples. It is hoped that partnered research between communities and researchers will continue to help us understand childhood-onset Type 2 diabetes and how to effectively prevent and treat it.

A mosaic of conditions

Illustration of different subtypes of Type 2 diabetes

Type 2 diabetes is a mosaic of conditions, each with its own characteristics.
(Lili Grieco-St-Pierre, Jennifer Bruin/Created with BioRender.com)

Type 2 diabetes is not uniform; it’s a mosaic of conditions, each with its own characteristics. Since diabetes presents so uniquely in every patient, even categorizing into subtypes does not guarantee how the disease will evolve. However, understanding these subtypes is a good starting point to help doctors create personalized plans for people living with the condition.

While Indigenous communities, lower-income households and individuals living with obesity already face a higher risk of developing Type 2 diabetes than the general population, tailored solutions may offer hope for better management. This emphasizes the urgent need for more precise assessments of diabetes subtypes to help customize therapeutic strategies and management strategies. This will improve care for all patients, including those from vulnerable and understudied populations.

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Quebec successfully pushes back against rise in measles cases – CBC.ca

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Quebec appears to be winning its battle against the rising tide of measles after 45 cases were confirmed province-wide this year.

“We’ve had no locally transmitted measles cases since March 25, so that’s good news,” said Dr. Paul Le Guerrier, responsible for immunization for Montreal Public Health.

There are 17 patients with measles in Quebec currently, and the most recent case is somebody who was infected while abroad, he said.

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But it was no small task to get to this point. 

Le Guerrier said once local transmission was detected, news was spread fast among health centres to ensure proper protocols were followed — such as not letting potentially infected people sit in waiting rooms for hours on end.

Then about 90 staffers were put to work, tracking down those who were in contact with positive cases and are not properly vaccinated. They were given post-exposure prophylaxis, which prevents disease, said Le Guerrier.

From there, a vaccination campaign was launched, especially in daycares, schools and neighbourhoods with low inoculation rates. There was an effort to convince parents to get their children vaccinated.

Vaccination in schools boosted

Some schools, mostly in Montreal, had vaccination rates as low as 30 or 40 per cent.

“Vaccination was well accepted and parents responded well,” said Le Guerrier. “Some schools went from very low to as high as 85 to 90 per cent vaccination coverage.”

But it’s not only children who aren’t properly vaccinated. Le Guerrier said people need two doses after age one to be fully inoculated, and he encouraged people to check their status.

There are all kinds of reasons why people aren’t vaccinated, but it’s only about five per cent who are against immunization, he said. So far, some 10,000 people have been vaccinated against measles province-wide during this campaign, Le Guerrier said. 

The next step is to continue pushing for further vaccination, but he said, small outbreaks are likely in the future as measles is spreading abroad and travellers are likely to bring it back with them.

Need to improve vaccination rate, expert says

Dr. Donald Vinh, an infectious diseases specialist from the McGill University Health Centre, said it’s not time to rest on our laurels, but this is a good indication that public health is able to take action quickly and that people are willing to listen to health recommendations.

“We are not seeing new cases or at least the new cases are not exceeding the number of cases that we can handle,” said Vinh.

“So these are all reassuring signs, but I don’t think it’s a sign that we need to become complacent.”

Vinh said there are also signs that the public is lagging in vaccine coverage and it’s important to respond to this with improved education and access. Otherwise, microbes capitalize on our weaknesses, he said. 

Getting vaccination coverage up to an adequate level is necessary, Vinh said, or more small outbreaks like this will continue to happen.

“And it’s very possible that we may not be able to get one under control if we don’t react quickly enough,” he said.

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