Ontario’s latest COVID-19 modelling will project the province’s intensive care units to be filled beyond capacity by early February, and will also show how a new, more contagious variant of the coronavirus risks accelerating the spread of infections, sources tell CBC News.
Premier Doug Ford has warned he is ready to impose further restrictions based on the modelling, but no announcement is planned before Tuesday, according to government sources.
Although the projections by Ontario’s scientific advisers were presented to cabinet on Friday, the information is not slated to be made public until Tuesday.
Multiple sources who have seen the modelling tell CBC News it includes:
Forecasts putting the province on track to report an average of 6,000 new cases of COVID-19 daily before the end of January.
Survey data indicating that a large proportion of Ontarians are not following basic public health guidelines to slow the spread of COVID-19.
Mobility data showing a spike in movement by Ontarians in the days just before Christmas when the government imposed what it described as a provincewide lockdown, beginning Boxing Day.
Ontario’s new COVID-19 modelling to be released on Tuesday will project the province’s intensive care units to be filled beyond capacity in early February, sources tell CBC News. (CBC)
“The modelling paints a very bleak picture both in terms of daily cases and the impact on hospitals,” a senior government official told CBC News on Sunday.
“We are in a desperate situation and when you see the modelling, you’ll fall off your chair,” Ford said Friday during a news conference filled with dire warnings of what Ontario faces from COVID-19.
“We are in a crisis, that’s how I can describe it. It is scary,” Ford said. “This is the most serious situation we’ve ever been in, ever, ever, since the beginning of this pandemic.”
Despite Ford’s statements, the new modelling does not show dramatically different trends from what Ontario’s COVID-19 science table previously warned would happen with the pandemic in January, according to two sources who saw the material.
Cabinet is due to meet Monday to decide what measures to impose, a government source tells CBC News.
“Everything is on the table,” Ford has said repeatedly in recent days.
Sources say options include the consideration of a curfew designed to prevent from people gathering with others outside their own households, as well as further shutdowns of non-essential businesses and workplaces.
However, government officials say cabinet has not had more than a broad discussion about the possible measures and hasn’t decided which restrictions to impose.
“We don’t have a lot of tools left in the tool box,” the senior government official acknowledged.
On Dec. 21, the Ford government announced what it described as a provincewide lockdown to take effect on Boxing Day. The measures included restricting most shops other than grocery stores and pharmacies to curbside pickup only, and limiting restaurants and bars to takeout and delivery.
Mobility data that has been presented to cabinet shows a spike in movement by Ontarians in the days just before Christmas, according to sources. The government imposed what it described as a provincewide lockdown, beginning Boxing Day. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)
The mobility data will raise questions about the government’s decision not to impose tighter restrictions sooner, given how the growth in new cases began surging in late December.
In the two weeks leading up to Christmas, the province’s average daily number of new cases grew at a pace of less than two per cent per day.
But over the past two weeks, the pace has accelerated much more rapidly, increasing by about 3.4 per cent per day.
If the growth in new cases continues at that rate, Ontario is on track to average more than 6,000 cases per day before the end of January.
Modelling released in mid-December projected Ontario to have roughly 400 patients with COVID-19 in intensive care by this point in January if cases grew at a rate of three per cent daily. The ICUs hit that mark on Saturday, said a report from Critical Care Services Ontario, a provincial health agency.
Based on evidence of how a new variant of the coronavirus is currently spreading in Britain, there are projections that Ontario could, by late February, see an even more rapid rise in the growth rate of new COVID-19 cases. (Alberto Pezzali/The Associated Press)
According to sources who saw the new modelling, it projects nearly 800 coronavirus patients in ICU by early February if the daily growth in cases is at three per cent, and nearly 1,000 in intensive care if cases grow by five per cent daily.
Either scenario would pose a risk of Ontario’s hospitals having more ICU patients than they can currently handle.
Setting aside the effects of COVID-19, health officials say Ontario typically has a baseline of about 1,200 patients in intensive care at a time just because of everyday health emergencies, from heart attacks and strokes to car accidents or organ failure.
The province has the capacity for around 2,000 ICU patients in total, limited not just by the number of beds but also the availability of doctors, nurses and other health staff trained in intensive care.
Ford tweeted Sunday that Ontario’s health-care system “is on the brink of being overwhelmed.”
Friends, we are going to see some real turbulent waters over the next few months. Our healthcare system is on the brink of being overwhelmed and we must take every precaution to keep our most vulnerable safe. <br><br>Other people’s lives are in your hands. <a href=”https://t.co/HmFLDPY9P6″>pic.twitter.com/HmFLDPY9P6</a>
The information presented to cabinet about the potential effect of a coronavirus variant first reported in the U.K. is based on research by Queen’s University mathematician Troy Day.
The new variant spreads more easily and faster than the original version of the virus, according to a report from researchers at Imperial College London released on Dec. 31, but it is not believed to be more deadly.
Day’s research shows, based on evidence of how the virus is currently spreading in Britain, that Ontario could, by late February, see the overall number of new daily cases doubling in a stretch of just 10 to 15 days, twice as fast as the recent growth rate.
“That would be a really horrific situation,” Day said in an interview with CBC News.
The survey data shows that a “concerning” proportion of people are not following public health guidelines in their personal behaviour, said the government official, adding that the data likely underestimates the actual level of non-compliance.
CBC reported in October that the government planned to conduct such surveys of public health behaviours.
VANCOUVER – Contract negotiations resume today in Vancouver in a labour dispute that has paralyzed container cargo shipping at British Columbia’s ports since Monday.
The BC Maritime Employers Association and International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 514 are scheduled to meet for the next three days in mediated talks to try to break a deadlock in negotiations.
The union, which represents more than 700 longshore supervisors at ports, including Vancouver, Prince Rupert and Nanaimo, has been without a contract since March last year.
The latest talks come after employers locked out workers in response to what it said was “strike activity” by union members.
The start of the lockout was then followed by several days of no engagement between the two parties, prompting federal Labour Minister Steven MacKinnon to speak with leaders on both sides, asking them to restart talks.
MacKinnon had said that the talks were “progressing at an insufficient pace, indicating a concerning absence of urgency from the parties involved” — a sentiment echoed by several business groups across Canada.
In a joint letter, more than 100 organizations, including the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, Business Council of Canada and associations representing industries from automotive and fertilizer to retail and mining, urged the government to do whatever it takes to end the work stoppage.
“While we acknowledge efforts to continue with mediation, parties have not been able to come to a negotiated agreement,” the letter says. “So, the federal government must take decisive action, using every tool at its disposal to resolve this dispute and limit the damage caused by this disruption.
“We simply cannot afford to once again put Canadian businesses at risk, which in turn puts Canadian livelihoods at risk.”
In the meantime, the union says it has filed a complaint to the Canada Industrial Relations Board against the employers, alleging the association threatened to pull existing conditions out of the last contract in direct contact with its members.
“The BCMEA is trying to undermine the union by attempting to turn members against its democratically elected leadership and bargaining committee — despite the fact that the BCMEA knows full well we received a 96 per cent mandate to take job action if needed,” union president Frank Morena said in a statement.
The employers have responded by calling the complaint “another meritless claim,” adding the final offer to the union that includes a 19.2 per cent wage increase over a four-year term remains on the table.
“The final offer has been on the table for over a week and represents a fair and balanced proposal for employees, and if accepted would end this dispute,” the employers’ statement says. “The offer does not require any concessions from the union.”
The union says the offer does not address the key issue of staffing requirement at the terminals as the port introduces more automation to cargo loading and unloading, which could potentially require fewer workers to operate than older systems.
The Port of Vancouver is the largest in Canada and has seen a number of labour disruptions, including two instances involving the rail and grain storage sectors earlier this year.
A 13-day strike by another group of workers at the port last year resulted in the disruption of a significant amount of shipping and trade.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 9, 2024.
The Royal Canadian Legion says a new partnership with e-commerce giant Amazon is helping boost its veterans’ fund, and will hopefully expand its donor base in the digital world.
Since the Oct. 25 launch of its Amazon.ca storefront, the legion says it has received nearly 10,000 orders for poppies.
Online shoppers can order lapel poppies on Amazon in exchange for donations or buy items such as “We Remember” lawn signs, Remembrance Day pins and other accessories, with all proceeds going to the legion’s Poppy Trust Fund for Canadian veterans and their families.
Nujma Bond, the legion’s national spokesperson, said the organization sees this move as keeping up with modern purchasing habits.
“As the world around us evolves we have been looking at different ways to distribute poppies and to make it easier for people to access them,” she said in an interview.
“This is definitely a way to reach a wider number of Canadians of all ages. And certainly younger Canadians are much more active on the web, on social media in general, so we’re also engaging in that way.”
Al Plume, a member of a legion branch in Trenton, Ont., said the online store can also help with outreach to veterans who are far from home.
“For veterans that are overseas and are away, (or) can’t get to a store they can order them online, it’s Amazon.” Plume said.
Plume spent 35 years in the military with the Royal Engineers, and retired eight years ago. He said making sure veterans are looked after is his passion.
“I’ve seen the struggles that our veterans have had with Veterans Affairs … and that’s why I got involved, with making sure that the people get to them and help the veterans with their paperwork.”
But the message about the Amazon storefront didn’t appear to reach all of the legion’s locations, with volunteers at Branch 179 on Vancouver’s Commercial Drive saying they hadn’t heard about the online push.
Holly Paddon, the branch’s poppy campaign co-ordinator and bartender, said the Amazon partnership never came up in meetings with other legion volunteers and officials.
“I work at the legion, I work with the Vancouver poppy office and I go to the meetings for the Vancouver poppy campaign — which includes all the legions in Vancouver — and not once has this been mentioned,” she said.
Paddon said the initiative is a great idea, but she would like to have known more about it.
The legion also sells a larger collection of items at poppystore.ca.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 9, 2024.
