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Oops: Gary Bettman and the NHL guessed really wrong on last season’s revenue – Pension Plan Puppets

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5 years ago

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Today, Bob McKenzie revealed the share of escrow returned to players for the 2018-2019 season:

This story is always presented as one of escrow deductions, unhappy players and contracts that never pay out at face value. That’s just the effect, though; the cause is bad guessing by the league on future earnings. And the guess on the 2018-2019 revenue was a whopper of a bad one.

Here’s how the NHL works regarding the 50-50 split and the salary cap:

  1. Sometime in June, the NHL sets a cap for each team based on their estimate of expected revenue growth over the current year’s actual figures, which they have in draft form by the summer. The NHL year is July 1 to June 30.
  2. The NHLPA votes to inflate that salary cap by an amount up to 5%. The bigger the cap, the bigger the free agent signings, and this vote is usually a few weeks before July 1.
  3. The final cap number is announced and then, before the new season starts, an escrow % is agreed upon between the NHL and the NHLPA.
  4. Escrow comes off of every NHL players’ salary cheques for the entire season, and then it sits in a bank account, idling away, usually for almost a full calendar year.
  5. After June 30, the NHL teams have to report their Hockey Related Revenue (HRR), as outlined in the NHL CBA to the league. The league assembles all those figures, confirms the various teams are doing it accurately and correctly (glances at Detroit), and figures out the total HRR that was actually earned. This legitimately takes a lot of time. And the NHLPA has to sign off on all of this as well.
  6. The full HRR number is split 50-50, and if that 50% number is at or more than the salary cap projection, everyone is thrilled, and the players get all of their escrow back. Not only that, the owners have to top that up with some extra money. If the 50% number is less than the revenue estimate, only some of the escrow goes to the players with the rest going to the owners.
  7. A full year after the hockey season ends, everyone has in their hands their fair share of their earnings from that year.

The players haven’t received more than their escrow amount back in ten years, and they have actually received very little of it lately. Travis Yost covered this last summer, and included this chart:

For 2019, then, that number is just under 10%, according to McKenzie. Not as terrible as some years, but still a far cry from the more reasonable numbers pre-lockout. This means that the guess the NHL made on the 2018-2019 salary cap was overly optimistic.

That season saw the NHLPA draw back from applying a big inflator as they had previously. Once bitten, twice shy:

So this bad guess is almost entirely on the NHL itself. No one can ever accurately predict the future, as we have now all learned in the hardest way, but the NHL has been giving glowing predictions for years, and failing to meet them.

Commissioner Bettman said the League is projecting revenue growth to be between 7 percent and 8.5 percent from last season to this season.

”We’re having healthy growth,” Commissioner Bettman said.

Bettman said that in June 2018, but just three months into the 2018-2019 season, that was already understood to be overly optimistic:

It now seems that if they’d stuck with the 11.5% number, they would have just squeaked through without the players ending up owing back salary at the end of the season, but only just.

Players express their displeasure with this state of affairs by attacking escrow itself, not the revenue projections and the attendant poor growth in the NHL’s product that are the real culprits. Like most of us, they see the world through their own lens. GMs of wealthy teams chafe at the restrictions of the salary cap and want to spend, spend, spend. Fans want the cap abolished, and enthusiasts will tell you about luxury taxes for hours.

Everyone just handwaves away the reality that many NHL teams aren’t profitable with a salary cap, and could be totally nonviable without it. A reduced NHL makes less HRR, the cap goes down, the players make less, and teams struggle harder to pay for the players they want.

But underlying all of that is that Gary Bettman, in the Hockey Hall of Fame as a Builder, has been guessing wrong on how healthy the NHL’s growth is for a long time. No one is going to blame him for not foreseeing the asteroid that smashed a hole in the 2019-2020 HRR. Even if there is a resumption and a playoffs, the final accounting on this season won’t be pretty. But soon, the NHL’s job, in concert with the NHLPA, will be to guess about next year.

The ground they’re building from to make that guess has a big crater in it, and they have to largely disregard that. The other asteroid, the one labelled “severe economic recession”, hasn’t hit yet, but that will also make guessing next year’s revenue a difficult task.

Teams have players under multi-year contracts, and that entire system is built around the expectation that the salary cap won’t fall year over year. But what if it does? There’s a widespread, yet false belief that next year’s salary cap must be tied to this season’s real revenues. The reality is, the NHL will need to come up with a number that they have some legitimate hope of hitting, that won’t require an escrow of astronomical proportions, but will allow teams with a lot of salary already committed to keep operating successfully.

All the teams that make up the NHL need to be able to put the most exciting product on the ice next season they’ve ever produced. They need the biggest bounce-back year since that team came last, drafted first overall and made the playoffs the next season.

The NBC TV rights deal is up for renewal at the end of next season in the summer of 2021, and the NHL has been banking on that deal going way up. The expect the revenue jump to start a period of even healthier growth while the salary cap surges. So have individual players. All these short-term RFA deals happened last season for a reason. Their agents all expect the year after next to be the golden year with huge money for everyone and a big jump in the cap.

To get that golden year, the 2020-2021 season needs to be one where more goes right than goes wrong. If it doesn’t, the escrow bugbear will only get bigger in the players’ minds, and the next CBA might not appear quite as painlessly as it has seemed it might up until now.

No pressure, Gary, you just need to do a better job of setting the revenue projection and actually growing the NHL to achieve it than you’ve ever done before. Earn that spot in the Hall.

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Champions Trophy host Pakistan says it’s not been told India wants to play cricket games elsewhere

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November 8, 2024

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LAHORE, Pakistan (AP) — A top official of the Pakistan Cricket Board declined Friday to confirm media reports that India has decided against playing any games in host Pakistan during next year’s Champions Trophy.

“My view is if there’s any problems, they (India) should tell us in writing,” PCB chairman Mohsin Naqvi told reporters in Lahore. “I’ll share that with the media as well as with the government as soon as I get such a letter.”

Indian media reported Friday that the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) has communicated its concerns to all the Champions Trophy stakeholders, including the PCB, over the Feb. 19-March 9 tournament and would not play in arch-rival Pakistan.

The Times of India said that “Dubai is a strong candidate to host the fixtures involving the Men in Blue” for the 50-over tournament.

Such a solution would see Pakistan having to travel to a neutral venue to play India in a group match, with another potential meeting later in the tournament if both teams advanced from their group. The final is scheduled for March 9 in Pakistan with the specific venue not yet decided.

“Our stance is clear,” Naqvi said. “They need to give us in writing any objections they may have. Until now, no discussion of the hybrid model has happened, nor are we prepared to accept one.”

Pakistan hosted last year’s Asia Cup but all India games were played in Sri Lanka under a hybrid model for the tournament. Only months later Pakistan did travel to India for the 50-over World Cup.

Political tensions have stopped bilateral cricket between the two nations since 2008 and they have competed in only multi-nation tournaments, including ICC World Cups.

“Cricket should be free of politics,” Naqvi said. “Any sport should not be entangled with politics. Our preparations for the Champions Trophy will continue unabated, and this will be a successful event.”

The PCB has already spent millions of dollars on the upgrade of stadiums in Karachi, Lahore and Rawalpindi which are due to host 15 Champions Trophy games. Naqvi hoped all the three stadiums will be ready over the next two months.

“Almost every country wants the Champions Trophy to be played here (in Pakistan),” Naqvi said. “I don’t think anyone should make this a political matter, and I don’t expect they will. I expect the tournament will be held at the home of the official hosts.”

Eight countries – Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, England, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand and Afghanistan – are due to compete in the tournament, the schedule of which is yet to be announced by the International Cricket Council.

“Normally the ICC announces the schedule of any major tournament 100 days before the event, and I hope they will announce it very soon,” Naqvi said.

___

AP cricket:

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Dabrowski, Routlife into WTA doubles final with win over Melichar-Martinez, Perez

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November 8, 2024

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RIYADH, Saudi Arabia – Ottawa‘s Gabriela Dabrowski and Erin Routliffe of New Zealand are through to the doubles final at the WTA Finals after a 7-6 (7), 6-1 victory over Nicole Melichar-Martinez of the United States and Australia’s Ellen Perez in semifinal action Friday.

Dabrowski and Routliffe won a hard-fought first set against serve when Routliffe’s quick reaction at the net to defend a Perez shot gave the duo set point, causing Perez to throw down her racket in frustration.

The second seeds then cruised through the second set, winning match point on serve when Melichar-Martinez couldn’t handle Routliffe’s shot.

The showdown was a rematch of last year’s semifinal, which Melichar-Martinez and Perez won in a super tiebreak.

Dabrowski and Routliffe will face the winner of a match between Katerina Siniakova and Taylor Townsend, and Hao-Ching Chan and Veronika Kudermetova in the final on Saturday.

Dabrowski is aiming to become the first Canadian to win a WTA Finals title.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Winger Tajon Buchanan back with Canada after recovering from broken leg

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November 8, 2024

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Inter Milan winger Tajon Buchanan, recovered from a broken leg suffered in training at this summer’s Copa America, is back in Jesse Marsch’s Canada squad for the CONCACAF Nations League quarterfinal against Suriname.

The 25-year-old from Brampton, Ont., underwent surgery July 3 to repair a fractured tibia in Texas.

Canada, ranked 35th in the world, plays No. 136 Suriname on Nov. 15 in Paramaribo. The second leg of the aggregate series is four days later at Toronto’s BMO Field.

There is also a return for veteran winger Junior Hoilett, who last played for Canada in June in a 4-0 loss to the Netherlands in Marsch’s debut at the Canadian helm. The 34-year-old from Brampton, now with Scotland’s Hibernian, has 15 goals in 63 senior appearances for Canada.

Midfielder Ismael Kone, recovered from an ankle injury sustained on club duty with France’s Marseille, also returns. He missed Canada’s last three matches since the fourth-place Copa America loss to Uruguay in July.

But Canada will be without centre back Derek Cornelius, who exited Marseille’s win Sunday over Nantes on a stretcher after suffering an apparent rib injury.

The Canadian men will prepare for Suriname next week at a camp in Fort Lauderdale, Fla.

“We are looking forward to getting the group together again with the mindset that there is a trophy on the line,” Marsch said in a statement. “We want to end 2024 the right way with two excellent performances against a competitive Suriname squad and continue building on our tremendous growth this past summer.”

The quarterfinal winners advance to the Nations League Finals at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif., with the two semifinals scheduled for March 20 and the final and third-place playoff March 23, and qualify for the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup.

Thirteen of the 23 players on the Canadian roster are 25 or younger, with 19-year-old defender Jamie Knight-Lebel, currently playing for England’s Crewe Alexandra on loan from Bristol City, the youngest.

Bayern Munich star Alphonso Davies captains the side with Stephen Eustaquio, Jonathan Osorio, Richie Laryea, Alistair Johnston and Kamal Miller adding veteran support.

Jonathan David, Cyle Larin and Theo Bair are joined in attack by Minnesota United’s Tani Oluwaseyi.

Niko Sigur, a 21-year-old midfielder with Croatia’s Hadjuk Split, continues in the squad after making his debut in the September friendly against Mexico.

Suriname made it to the Nations League quarterfinals by finishing second to Costa Rica in Group A of the Nations League, ahead of No. 104 Guatemala, No. 161 Guyana and unranked Martinique and Guadeloupe.

“A good team,” Osorio said of Suriname. “These games are always tricky and they’re not easy at all … Suriname is a (former) Dutch colony and they’ll have Dutch players playing at high levels.”

“They won’t be someone we overlook at all,” added the Toronto FC captain, who has 81 Canada caps to his credit.

Located on the northeast coast of South America between Guyana and French Guiana, Suriname was granted independence in 1975 by the Netherlands.

Canada has faced Suriname twice before, both in World Cup qualifying play, winning 4-0 in suburban Chicago in June 2021 and 2-1 in Mexico City in October 1977.

The Canadian men, along with Mexico, the United States and Panama, received a bye into the final eight of the CONCACAF Nations League.

Canada, No. 2 in the CONCACAF rankings, drew Suriname as the best-placed runner-up from League A play.

Canada lost to Jamaica in last year’s Nations League quarterfinal, ousted on the away-goals rule after the series ended in a 4-4 draw. The Canadians lost 2-0 to the U.S. in the final of the 2022-23 tournament and finished fifth in 2019-20.

Canada defeated Panama 2-1 last time out, in an Oct. 15 friendly in Toronto.

Goalkeepers Maxime Crepeau and Jonathan Sirois, defenders Joel Waterman, Laryea and Miller and Osorio took part in a pre-camp this week in Toronto for North America-based players.

Canada Roster

Goalkeepers: Maxime Crepeau, Portland Timbers (MLS); Jonathan Sirois, CF Montreal (MLS); Dayne St. Clair, Minnesota United FC (MLS).

Defenders: Moise Bombito, OGC Nice (France); Alphonso Davies, Bayern Munich (Germany); Richie Laryea, Toronto FC (MLS); Alistair Johnston, Celtic (Scotland); Jamie Knight-Lebel. Crewe Alexandra, on loan from Bristol City (England); Kamal Miller, Portland Timbers (MLS); Joel Waterman, CF Montreal (MLS).

Midfielders: Ali Ahmed. Vancouver Whitecaps (MLS); Tajon Buchanan, Inter Milan (Italy); Mathieu Choiniere, Grasshopper Zurich (Switzerland); Stephen Eustaquio, FC Porto (Portugal); Junior Hoilett, Hibernian FC (Scotland); Ismael Kone, Olympique Marseille (France); Jonathan Osorio, Toronto FC (MLS); Jacob Shaffelburg, Nashville SC (MLS); Niko Sigur, Hadjuk Split (Croatia).

Forwards: Theo Bair, AJ Auxerre (France); Jonathan David, LOSC Lille (France); Cyle Larin, RCD Mallorca (Spain); Tani Oluwaseyi, Minnesota United (MLS).

—

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This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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