OPEC+ allies were locked in a tense diplomatic standoff on Friday after a dispute that threatens to send oil prices sharply higher.
As of Friday afternoon in London, the group had failed to find a way out of the impasse, with both sides entrenched in their demands, delegates said. If the negotiations fail, the fallback position is that there’ll be no increase in output, one of them said. That would squeeze an already tight market, risking a further inflationary price spike.
“If OPEC+ fails to reach a compromise, the automatic fallback will be to roll over current quotas into August and beyond,” said Matthew Holland, a geopolitical analyst at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. “That would lead to sharply higher prices, something most OPEC+ members want to avoid.”
Ministers reconvened on Friday after the meeting was halted the evening before because of the dispute. It’s not the first time the group has faced such crises, and more often than not it has been able to fudge a diplomatic solution.
The disagreement centers on how the group measures its production cuts, with the United Arab Emirates refusing to back a deal to raise output unless the baseline for its own curbs is increased, according to delegates. The UAE is ready to accept no change in output for August if an agreement can’t be reached, one delegate said. It’s not clear if that stance would be acceptable to Russia, however.
On Thursday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies had appeared to be heading for a deal to add about 400,000 barrels a day of crude to the market each month from August to December. But the UAE put up objections at the last minute and the online meeting was paused.
Resolution may not be easy, because giving the UAE what it wants — essentially a much higher production limit — could upend the entire OPEC+ deal that’s buttressed oil prices since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
“Any request to adjust the production quota would be like opening Pandora’s box,” said Giovanni Staunovo, a commodity analyst at UBS Group AG. That could allow an output increase of about 700,000 barrels a day for the UAE alone, and “other OPEC+ states might also request an adjustment.”
Several delegates said the issue was so serious that it could only be resolved by talks at the highest level of government.
The standoff leaves the market unsure whether it will be grappling with a huge supply deficit in the second half of the year, with crude this week rising above US$75 a barrel in New York for the first time since 2018. It also tarnishes the cartel’s carefully reconstructed reputation, raising the specter of another destructive internal dispute — the Saudi-Russia price war that helped to crash the oil market last year.
The UAE’s ambitions have upset negotiations before. Late last year, Abu Dhabi even floated the idea of leaving the cartel as it pressed to raise production. An OPEC meeting was postponed then too amid fraught negotiations, though a deal was ultimately struck.
The problem is a consequence of the UAE’s heavy investment in new additional capacity. The country’s cuts are measured from a starting point in 2018, setting its maximum capacity at about 3.2 million barrels a day. Expansion projects have since raised that number and the country wants its baseline reset to about 3.8 million barrels a day so it can use its new fields, delegates said.
The UAE argues that the change is necessary because, under the current terms of the OPEC+ deal, it is making proportionally deeper cuts than other members. The proposal on Thursday to delay the expiry of the output curbs from April to December 2022 exacerbated the issue.
“Clearly, the UAE is playing hardball and has signaled previously its frustration with production levels,” said Neil Quilliam, associate fellow in the Middle East and North Africa program at the Chatham House think tank. “It is unlikely that the UAE is willing to derail negotiations, this time around, though its appetite for doing so is growing, and future rounds are likely to be spikier.”
For the UAE, the baseline is a very significant issue and it will reject the OPEC+ deal until there’s a change, a delegate said after the meeting was adjourned. The Saudis are equally insistent that the extension of the agreement until December 2022 is vital for market stability next year.
Failure to bridge the gap would leave the existing OPEC+ deal in place, keeping as much as 5.8 million barrels a day off the market until April 2022.
Oil has risen around 50 per cent this year, with the recovery in demand from the pandemic outpacing the revival of OPEC+ supplies after last year’s deep cuts. Crude’s surge, combined with a rally in other commodities, has central banks fretting about inflation again. Brent was broadly flat on Friday.
OPEC+ is already in the process of reviving crude supplies halted last year in the initial stages of the pandemic. The 23-nation coalition decided to add about 2 million barrels a day to the market from May to July. But there was a growing clamor for the group to keep going.
The cartel’s own data show that once-bloated oil inventories are back down to average levels as a strong revival in fuel consumption continues. Demand in the second half will be 5 million barrels a day higher than in the first six months of the year, OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said on Tuesday.
“You still need around 2 million barrels a day at least for the second half of the year to just keep the market in a reasonable sense of supply and demand balance,” Neil Beveridge, a senior analyst at Bernstein Research, said on Bloomberg TV.
Stock market news live updates: Stock turn lower following last week's rebound – Yahoo Canada
U.S. stocks closed a choppy session lower Monday, weighed down by losses in technology shares, after the major indexes failed to sustain momentum from last week’s rally.
The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 60 points, or 0.2% after each benchmark wavered between the red and the green throughout the trading day. The Nasdaq Composite declined 0.9%.
The moves follow a sharp rebound Friday that saw the S&P 500 surge 3% during the session and over 6% for the week, its second-best week this year and its first weekly rise since late May. Still, the benchmark index is on pace for its worst opening six months since 1970.
During the previous session, the Dow rose more than 800 points, or 2.7%, while the Nasdaq increased by more than 3.3%, leading to weekly gains for the indexes of more than 5% and 7%, respectively.
Some Wall Street strategists are hopeful that markets may have found a bottom.
“As bad as [this year] has been for investors, the good news is previous years that were down at least 15% at the midway point to the year saw the final six months higher every single time, with an average return of nearly 24%,” LPL Financial chief market strategist Ryan Detrick said in a note last week.
J.P. Morgan strategist Marko Kolanovic also predicted that U.S. equities may climb as much as 7% this week as investors rebalance portfolios amid the end of the month, second quarter, and first half of the year.
While sentiment on Wall Street appears optimistic, investors are in for a bevy of key economic reports and earnings that may sway markets this week and put hopes of a comeback to the test.
Quarterly results from Nike (NKE) and Micron (MU) will be closely watched for signs of rising inventories and slowing orders like Target and some other retailers have warned about recently, which may renew worries of an economic slowdown among Corporate America.
Traders also face a fairly loaded economic calendar this week, with the latest read on core PCE inflation – the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of consumer prices, the Conference Board’s consumer sentiment survey, and manufacturing and housing reports due out through Friday.
On the move
Robinhood Markets (HOOD)‘s stock surged 14% to close at $9.12 per share following a report from Bloomberg that cryptocurrency exchange FTX is considering a deal to acquire digital trading platform. Earlier in the day, Robinhood was in the spotlight after Goldman Sachs upgraded the brokerage to Neutral, about two months after the bank downgraded shares to Sell.
Coinbase (COIN) shares plunged nearly 10.8% to $55.96 after analysts at Goldman Sachs on Monday downgraded the cryptocurrency exchange to Sell from Neutral and slashed their price target on the stock to $45 from $70. Goldman also noted that while Coinbase recently announced it would cut 18% of staff, these layoffs will not be enough to bring the company’s costs in line with lowered sales.
AMC Entertainment (AMC) rallied to cap trading up 13.6% despite a turbulent session for the broader markets. The stock rose amid increased mentions across forums such as Reddit’s WallStreetBets and Stocktwits. AMC was also added to the Russell 1000 Index after an annual rebalancing.
Alexandra Semenova is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @alexandraandnyc
Man uses Apple Airtags to find stolen Range Rover | CTV News – CTV News Toronto
An Ontario man whose car was stolen from his driveway in midtown Toronto twice in three months is revealing how he tracked and located his second vehicle.
“It’s pretty scary, but you can’t live your life in fear,” Lorne, whose surname CTV News Toronto has omitted due to safety concerns, said on Monday.
On April 1, his family moved to the Avenue Road and Lawrence Avenue area.
The following day, employees from an electronics company arrived at his house to install televisions. He placed the keys of his Range Rover Autobiography into a faraday box, which is designed to prevent criminals from copying a key fob and gaining access to a vehicle.
However, within minutes of the employees leaving his house, his car was stolen in broad daylight.
“The thieves were able to disable the tracker in my car, put there by the manufacturer,” Lorne said.
Meanwhile, his wallet, along with his kids phones, which were in the car, were thrown out of the vehicle before it was stolen, which Lorne said he believes was a preventive measure to avoid him from tracking the location of his car.
His Range Rover was never recovered.
Thirty days later, he got a new car of the same model, but this time, he placed three Apple AirTag tracking devices inside – one in the glovebox, another in his spare tire in the trunk and a third under his back seat.
While Lorne said he typically parks in his garage, last Wednesday night, he didn’t.
At 8:30 a.m. the next morning, he said his kids ran into his bedroom screaming, ”Daddy, daddy, your car is gone.”
Right away, he logged into his Find My app and located all three of his AirTags near Manville and Comsock roads in Scarborough, listed as a metal recycling plant.
After dropping his kids at school, he headed to that location and called the police. With no success reaching an officer, he drove to the 41 Division police station.
Toronto police spokesperson David Hopkinson confirmed to CTV News Toronto that a report of this nature was received by police on Thursday.
“I pressed my panic button and you heard it going off,” Lorne said. “The next day I was told they recovered nine cars.”
Due to an ongoing investigation, police could not comment further on the incident.
This time, however, Lorne said police recovered his vehicle and he anticipates it should be back in his possession soon.
While he said his AirTags worked in this case, he anticipates car thefts will only get increasingly sophisticated.
“It’s not foolproof,” he said.
Company buying Trump's social media app faces subpoenas – Yahoo Canada Finance
NEW YORK (AP) — The company planning to buy Donald Trump’s new social media business has disclosed a federal grand jury investigation that it says could impede or even prevent its acquisition of the Truth Social app.
Shares of Digital World Acquisition Corp. dropped almost 10% Monday as the company revealed that it has received subpoenas from a grand jury in New York.
The Justice Department subpoenas follow an ongoing probe by the Securities and Exchange Commission into whether Digital World broke rules by having substantial talks about buying Trump’s company starting early last year before Digital World sold stock to the public for the first time in September, just weeks before its announcement that it would be buying Trump’s company.
Trump’s social media venture launched in February as he seeks a new digital stage to rally his supporters and fight Big Tech limits on speech, a year after he was banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube.
The Trump Media & Technology Group — which operates the Truth Social app and was in the process of being acquired by Digital World — said in a statement that it will cooperate with “oversight that supports the SEC’s important mission of protecting retail investors.”
The new probe could make it more difficult for Trump to finance his social media company. The company last year got promises from dozens of investors to pump $1 billion into the company, but it can’t get the cash until the Digital World acquisition is completed.
Stock in Digital World rocketed to more than $100 in October after its deal to buy Trump’s company was announced. The stock closed at $25.16 Monday.
Digital World is a special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, part of an investing phenomenon that exploded in popularity over the past two years.
Such “blank-check” companies are empty corporate entities with no operations, only offering investors the promise they will buy a business in the future. As such they are allowed to sell stock to the public quickly without the usual regulatory disclosures and delays, but only if they haven’t already lined up possible acquisition targets.
Digital World said in a regulatory filing Monday that each member of its board of directors has been subpoenaed by the grand jury in the Southern District of New York. Both the grand jury and the SEC are also seeking a number of documents tied to the company and others including a sponsor, ARC Global Investments, and Miami-based venture capital firm Rocket One Capital.
Some of the sought documents involve “due diligence” regarding Trump Media and other potential acquisition targets, as well as communications with Digital World’s underwriter and financial adviser in its initial public offering, according to the SEC disclosure.
Digital World also Monday announced the resignation of one of its board members, Bruce Garelick, a chief strategy officer at Rocket One.
The Associated Press
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