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OPINION | In Alberta, it's always the economy, stupid – CBC.ca

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This column is an opinion from Max Fawcett, a freelance writer and the former editor of Alberta Oil magazine.

Staged photo opportunities are common fare in Canadian politics, but few have been more widely mocked than the gas station selfies taken by Alberta conservative politicians on the eve of the Jan. 1, 2017, implementation of a carbon tax.

As the National Post’s Tristin Hopper wrote at the time, Jason Kenney’s Dodge Ram 1500 “carries a fuel capacity of about 98 litres, so if Kenney rolled in running on fumes, at 4.5 cents a litre he dodged just enough tax to buy a New Year’s Eve Molson Canadian at the Legion (if it’s on special).”

As it turns out, though, those MLAs — and especially Jason Kenney — got the last laugh. 

Yes, as Hopper wrote in his piece, nobody was saving any real money by front-running the carbon tax. But that was never the point. Instead, it was about framing the new policy in terms of its financial costs, not its environmental benefits.

The lesson, in retrospect, is clear: if you want to speak to Albertans, you need to be using the language that they’re most familiar with: the economy.  

Moments of fluency

That lesson was driven home most recently on Monday, when the premier announced his “Alberta Recovery Plan.” But while the NDP has already taken a swipe at its contents, which include an acceleration of an already announced corporate tax cut and some additional stimulus spending, it’s not clear that they’ll be forthcoming with a competing economic narrative of their own.

After all, that was something they rarely talked about when they were in government. 

Yes, there were moments, like premier Notley’s speech in 2015 at the Stampede Investment Forum, where it flashed some fluency.

“We know there is only one way to succeed,” she told the people in attendance. “And that’s by supporting a free, open, sustainable and increasingly diversified economy.”

But it became clear throughout the course of the next three-plus years that the economy was the NDP’s second language, at best.

Instead, it preferred to talk about increasing supports for vulnerable populations, improving rights for workers and showing leadership on the environment — all important priorities, but ones that rarely spoke to Albertans’ economic concerns that only grew as oil and natural gas prices continued to fall and pipeline projects continued to get stalled or cancelled outright.

That focus on social issues continued into their 2019 campaign, which focused on Jason Kenney’s perceived shortcomings as a leader and the threat his government would present to certain Albertans. The results, in the end, say it all. 

If they want those results to be different in 2023, they’re going to have to become far more fluent in the language of jobs and economic prosperity — and fast, if the latest batch of polls are any indication.

It became clear during Rachel Notley’s time in office that the economy was the NDP’s second language, at best, according to Max Fawcett. (Jeff McIntosh/Canadian Press)

Yes, the sample size on the Innovative Research poll that was taken in early June was almost laughably small at just 297 people, but its results should still serve as a warning to Alberta’s New Democrats.

After all, despite its self-defeating war with doctors and a growing array of gaffes and missteps, Kenney’s party is polling at 42 per cent — the same as the combined total of the NDP (28 per cent) and Alberta Liberals (14 per cent).

“They’ve struggled to find their footing in opposition, and particularly during COVID, just as any opposition party has. I think they’ve done better than Scheer, but that’s a pretty low bar,” says Duane Bratt, a professor of political science at Mount Royal University.

“They had gained momentum between the election and our poll in March. [But] they lost that momentum by May.”

And while the province has been battered by bad economic news over the last few months, the recent bout of ultra-low oil prices could be seeding the ground for a much healthier economic environment in Alberta down the road.

Higher oil prices could be coming

Shale oil production, for example, may never recover to the levels it was at back in January, and it’s entirely possible that oil prices could be far higher than where they are today by the time Albertans head to the polls in 2023.

JP Morgan, for example, recently published a note that suggests $100 oil isn’t out of the question in the relatively near future, while Rystad Energy is calling for an oil spike “between 2023 and 2025.”

Even if those prices don’t materialize, the Trans Mountain expansion should still be nearing completion, Line 3 will be in service and Keystone XL could even be getting built. Fair or not, Kenney will be able to point to these developments as validation of his government’s approach — and a sign of its achievements. 

That’s why the NDP needs a competing narrative, one that directly challenges the UCP’s double-or-nothing approach to economic development and its apparently unshakeable faith in the oil and gas industry’s ability to turn back the clock. And as the CBC News-Road Ahead poll from March reveals, there’s lots of opportunity there.

For example, when asked if “oil and gas companies have too much say in Alberta politics,” 54 per cent either strongly or somewhat agreed. More importantly, those figures held in Calgary, with 26 per cent strongly agreeing and 27 per cent somewhat agreeing. That majority held across key NDP demographics, from younger people (indeed, 63 per cent of those aged 25-44 agreed) to lower and middle income families and the highly educated.  

Bill Clinton is shown, right, during one of the debates leading up to the 1992 U.S. presidential election. When progressive politicians win elections, it’s usually because they have a compelling economic message. (The Associated Press)

In a bit of a shocker, 54 per cent of Calgarians agreed that “Alberta should transition away from oil and gas.” And here, again, this majority held across the young, the working and middle class, and the highly educated.

When asked if “Alberta should transition toward renewable energy,” fully 80 per cent of Calgarians agreed. And when asked if Alberta should “do more to encourage the development of the technology sector,” support in Calgary hit 95 per cent.

Yes, the sample sizes here aren’t enormous, but they’re big enough to lend some credibility to these results, which should serve as a roadmap for the NDP’s economic message over the next 30 months.

And while it might be tempting to read these results as an invitation to talk about a “Green New Deal,” the political failure of the Climate Leadership Plan speaks to the dangers of putting environmental objectives ahead of economic ones in Alberta.

A compelling economic message

Instead, they need to remember that when progressive politicians win elections, it’s usually because they have a compelling economic message that connects with working and middle class voters. That was true of Bill Clinton’s “It’s The Economy, Stupid” campaign of 1992. It was true of Barack Obama in 2008. And to some extent, it was true of the NDP back in 2015. 

But those elections are the exceptions, not the rule.

“Typically,” Bratt says, “the NDP owns the issue of health care and education. They don’t [own] the economy.”

Even with all of the health-care and education-shaped rakes that the UCP has stepped on lately, it’s still polling ahead of the NDP — and that’s before any potential rebound in commodity prices.

In a recent blog post, progressive organizer Scott Harold Payne argued that “as long as we’re busy attacking Kenney on issues of his choosing, we’re not busy building an alternative economic narrative that could unseat the UCP.”

In other words, even if they can’t truly own the issue of the economy, they have to find a way to not get owned on it again.

And if it takes a few silly staged photo-ops to do that? Well, it beats losing another election.


This column is an opinion. For more information about our commentary section, please read this editor’s blog and our FAQ.

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Economy

Austrian economy might not shrink as much as previously forecast: ONB – TheChronicleHerald.ca

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BERLIN (Reuters) – Austria’s economy could shrink by around 6% this year, the Austrian National Bank on Friday, striking a more optimistic tone than in early June, when it had forecast a 7.2% decline.

It said weekly real-time gross domestic product (GDP) data showed the Alpine republic’s economy was recovering faster than expected.

“As long as we avoid a strong second wave of COVID-19 infections, the collapse in Austria’s economy in 2020 could be less severe than had been expected in our forecast in early June,” the ONB said.

It warned that the risks related to the forecast for a 6% contraction remained clearly to the downside though.

(Reporting by Michelle Martin; editing by Thomas Seythal)

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Japan's spending slump eases as economy reopens, COVID-19 clouds outlook – TheChronicleHerald.ca

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By Leika Kihara

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s household spending fell at a much slower pace in June than in the previous month as the economy re-opened from lockdown measures to contain the coronavirus pandemic, offering some hope of a moderate recovery later this year.

But the recovery was driven largely by the government’s blanket cash payouts to households, which were spent on big ticket items like television sets, personal computers and sofas.

That cast some doubt on the sustainability of the rebound, particuarly as rising COVID-19 infections nationwide have forced the government to request citizens hold off on unnecessary travel and work from home as much as possible.

“The rebound in consumption was stronger than expected, so we may see the economy pick up faster than initially thought,” said Yoshiki Shinke, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.

“But renewed rises in infection numbers are worrying. It’s too early to be optimistic on the outlook.”

Household spending in June declined 1.2% from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday, less than a median market forecast for a 7.5% drop.

It followed a record 16.2% drop in May, when consumers were still heeding authorities’ calls to stay home to contain the pandemic. Those emergency steps were lifted in late May.

Compared with the previous month, household spending jumped 13.0% in June to mark the biggest increase on record as the government’s cash payouts offset a steady drop in regular wages.

The payouts helped push spending on air conditioners up by nearly 30% in June, television sets by 83%, and tables and sofas by two-fold, the data showed.

But inflation-adjusted real wages fell for the fourth consecutive month in June, clouding the outlook for an economy bracing for a prolonged impact from the pandemic.

The fallout from the pandemic has pushed Japan deeper into recession, hitting an economy already reeling from the damage to consumption and exports from last year’s tax hike and slumping overseas demand.

(Reporting by Leika Kihara; additional reporting by Daniel Leussink; editing by Jane Wardell)

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Lebanon's economy was already in crisis. Then the blast hit Beirut – CNN

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On Tuesday, a massive explosion at the city’s port left at least 135 people dead and 5,000 injured. The number of deaths is expected to climb as search-and-rescue efforts continue.
The blast, which also leveled huge swaths of Beirut and displaced 300,000 people, couldn’t come at a worse moment.
In the past year, a breakdown in the country’s banking system and skyrocketing inflation had triggered mass protests. Even before the Covid-19 pandemic hit, the World Bank projected that 45% of people in Lebanon would be below the poverty line in 2020.
“It’s an economic crisis, a financial crisis, a political crisis, a health crisis and now this horrible explosion,” said Tamara Alrifai, spokesperson at the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East.
Dumpster diving, blackouts and suicides. Lebanon's woes laid bare as crisis deepens
European and Gulf countries have sent aid to help Lebanon manage the fallout from the blast, and the country’s central bank instructed lenders to make zero-interest dollar loans to be repaid over the next five years so people and businesses can rebuild. But it’s expected to fall far short of what the country needs to pull back from the brink, and some donors may be deterred by widespread corruption and mismanagement.
French President Emmanuel Macron, who was mobbed by angry crowds during a tour of devastated Beirut neighborhoods on Thursday, said France would provide medication and food, but not via corrupt officials.
“This aid, I guarantee it, won’t end up in corrupt hands,” he told Lebanese protesters, according to a spokesperson.
Macron told reporters later that France would help organize an international conference to raise funds for Lebanon. He promised “clear and transparent governance, whether it’s French or international” to ensure the money is “directly provided to the local population, the NGOs and teams on site that need it.”

Economy in free fall

The economic situation in Lebanon was grim before the explosion.
The International Monetary Fund last forecast that Lebanon’s economy — beset by soaring food prices, a collapsing currency and Covid-19 — would contract by 12% this year. That’s far worse than the 4.7% average drop in output forecast for the Middle East and central Asia.
The country defaulted on some of its debt in March. And last week, Moody’s cut Lebanon’s credit rating to its lowest rank. It’s now on par with Venezuela.
“The country is steeped in an economic, financial and social crisis, which very weak institutions … appear unable to address,” Moody’s said in a statement. The currency’s collapse and the related surge in inflation create a “highly unstable environment,” it continued.
Lebanon had been looking to secure a $10 billion loan from the IMF, but talks stalled last month.
On Thursday, IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva called for “national unity” to address the country’s deep crisis, and she said the agency is “exploring all possible ways to support the people of Lebanon.”
“It is essential to overcome the impasse in the discussions on critical reforms and put in place a meaningful program to turn around the economy and build accountability and trust in the future of the country,” she added.
The explosion in Beirut, which has been declared a “disaster city,” will only pile more pressure on the economy.
“There is not one apartment in Beirut that wasn’t impacted, not one [business] that wasn’t impacted — whether the storefront [or] the goods,” Lebanon’s Economy Minister Raoul Nehme told CNBC Arabia on Wednesday.
The port where the blast occurred is the nation’s main maritime hub, and 60% of the country’s imports pass through it. Nehme said it has been “practically erased.”
Tourism accounted for nearly a fifth of Lebanon’s GDP in 2018, when two million people visited the country. That sector has suffered another huge hit.
“It’s a disaster for Lebanon,” said Pierre Achkar, head of the Lebanon Hotel Federation for Tourism. He said occupancy rates at the hotels still open had already slumped to 5% and 15% because of coronavirus and political issues.
Achkar told the state news agency NNA on Wednesday that the explosion damaged 90% of the hotels in Beirut.
— Chris Liakos, Nada AlThaher, Schams Elwazer, Barbara Wojazer and Sharon Braithwaite contributed to this article.

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