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India’s economy is surging thanks to these three revolutions

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Visiting India this week, I was struck by how different the mood there is compared with much of the world. While people in the United States and Europe are worried about inflation and a possible recession, Indians are excited about the future. India is now the most populous country on the planet and is projected to be the fastest-growing large economy as well, at 5.9 percent this year. As Prime Minister Narendra Modi said recently, “India’s time has arrived.”

My worry is that I have seen this movie before. I remember going to the World Economic Forum in Davos in 2006 and being bombarded with billboards plastered all over the Swiss town saying “Incredible India!” and proclaiming it to be the “world’s fastest-growing free market democracy.” In fact, in those years, India was growing even faster than it is now, at a rate of more than 9 percent. The Indian trade minister at the time confidently predicted to me that the Indian economy would soon overtake China’s.

It didn’t quite work out that way. After a few years, growth petered out, economic reforms stalled, and many foreign businesses that had entered the country with great enthusiasm were disappointed. Some left altogether. As for beating China, despite the Chinese economy’s slowdown, it is now about five times the size of India’s.

And yet I came away from the trip bullish about India. While that mid-2000s enthusiasm did not fully translate, the country did continue to make progress. It has been the second-fastest-growing large economy (behind China) for about 20 years. In recent years, however, it has been able to accelerate growth because of a series of revolutions.

 

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The first revolution was a government initiative called Aadhaar, which gives every Indian a unique 12-digit ID number verifiable by fingerprints or an iris scan. It sounds simple, but it is, in Nobel laureate Paul Romer’s words, “the most sophisticated ID program in the world.” Today, 99.9 percent of adult Indians have a digital ID that can be used to verify instantly who they are and thus set up a bank account in minutes (literally, I have seen this done!), or to transfer government payments to recipients directly and with little skimming and corruption.

Aadhaar enrollment is open to all and free, but its most distinctive feature is that it is publicly owned and operated, unlike in the West, where digital platforms such as Google and Facebook are private monopolies that can share your data to make a profit. Entrepreneurs can even build businesses on Aadhaar. And when you use the platform to send money or take out a loan, you don’t pay those persistent fees so ubiquitous in the West.

The second is the Jio revolution. Mukesh Ambani, India’s biggest and most ambitious business leader, made a staggering $46 billion bet that by offering very cheap phones and data packages through his telecom service Jio, he could get most Indians on the internet. It worked. With most using smartphones as their computers, more than 700 million Indians now use the internet. In 2015, India was ranked 122nd for per capita mobile data consumption. Last year, it was first, exceeding the consumption of China and the United States combined.

The third is an infrastructure revolution, which is readily apparent to anyone visiting India. Spending on roads, airports, train stations and other projects has exploded. Government capital spending has risen fivefold since fiscal 2014, and the average construction of national highways has roughly doubled, as have seaport capacity and the number of airports. Mumbai is finally building an extensive set of bridges, roads, tunnels and metro lines that could truly connect all parts of India’s leading economic center.

These three revolutions could, this time, truly transform India. But they can best do so by helping in the country’s greatest challenge — bringing in the hundreds of millions of Indians who are still on the margins, economically, socially and politically. As of 2019, about 45 percent of Indians — more than 600 million people — live on less than $3.65 a day.

Nandan Nilekani, the visionary architect of Aadhaar, describes how to create jobs in a novel, bottom-up fashion. Rather than the Chinese top-down approach of building 100 new factories that employ tens of thousands, he envisions using Aadhaar to get loans to the millions of small businesses scattered throughout the country. “If 10 million small businesses get loans that let them each hire two more people, that’s 20 million new jobs,” he said to me.

The even larger challenge of inclusivity involves India’s women, who are still pressured in various ways not to work outside the home. Female labor force participation in India is low and, stunningly, has fallen over the past two decades from around 30 percent to 23 percent. Of the Group of 20 countries, not even Saudi Arabia’s level is lower. Bloomberg Economics estimates that closing the gap between women’s and men’s participation would increase India’s gross domestic product by more than 30 percent over the next three decades.

A focus on inclusivity would also ease India’s religious tensions, bringing into the fold that nation’s Muslims (roughly 200 million people, one-seventh of the country), who face persistent persecution. It would also be in character for a country that is an open, pluralistic democracy with a Hindu majority, a religion almost defined by its pluralism and tolerance.

India has the potential to be admired for not just the quantity of its growth but also the quality of its values. And that would truly be an incredible India.

 

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B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Nova Scotia bill would kick-start offshore wind industry without approval from Ottawa

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HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government has introduced a bill that would kick-start the province’s offshore wind industry without federal approval.

Natural Resources Minister Tory Rushton says amendments within a new omnibus bill introduced today will help ensure Nova Scotia meets its goal of launching a first call for offshore wind bids next year.

The province wants to offer project licences by 2030 to develop a total of five gigawatts of power from offshore wind.

Rushton says normally the province would wait for the federal government to adopt legislation establishing a wind industry off Canada’s East Coast, but that process has been “progressing slowly.”

Federal legislation that would enable the development of offshore wind farms in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador has passed through the first and second reading in the Senate, and is currently under consideration in committee.

Rushton says the Nova Scotia bill mirrors the federal legislation and would prevent the province’s offshore wind industry from being held up in Ottawa.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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