Opinion: The Fed's latest rate hike will be a disaster for the economy - CNN | Canada News Media
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Opinion: The Fed's latest rate hike will be a disaster for the economy – CNN

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Desmond Lachman is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. He was a deputy director in the International Monetary Fund’s Policy Development and Review Department and the chief emerging market economic strategist at Salomon Smith Barney. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own.

History will not judge the Jerome Powell Federal Reserve kindly. First, it brought us multi-decade high inflation. Now, it is putting us well on the path to a hard economic landing.

Last year, at a time when the US economy was recovering strongly, the Fed kept its interest rate at its zero lower bound and allowed the broad money supply to balloon by 40% over a two-year period. Similarly, when the equity and housing markets were on fire, the Fed kept pumping liquidity into the market by buying $120 billion a month in Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities.
Panicked by the sky-high inflation its actions helped fuel, the Fed is now stepping too hard on the monetary policy brakes in much the same way it kept its foot on the accelerator for too long last year. It is doing so now by raising interest rates in 75 basis-point steps rather than the more normal 25 basis-point steps. And it is withdrawing large amounts of market liquidity by not rolling over its maturing bond holdings. In much the same way it printed money by buying Treasury bonds last year, now the Fed is reducing money in the system by requiring the Treasury to repay those bonds on maturity.
One reason to think that the Fed’s shift to a more hawkish policy stance could bring on a recession is that it has already caused the asset and credit market bubbles it created last year to burst. Since the start of the year, equity prices have fallen by nearly 25%, bond prices have declined by about 11% and the cryptocurrency market is crashing, with Bitcoin losing a quarter of its value since Friday and Ether losing about a third of its value.
These declines have resulted in trillions lost in household financial market wealth since the start of this year. Using the Federal Reserve’s rule of thumb that for every $1 loss in wealth, households reduce spending by 4 cents, the decline in asset prices to date will almost certainly result in consumers cutting back spending.
Such a prospectively large decline in consumer spending is the last thing that an already slowing US economy needs. This is especially the case at a time when consumer spending is already being constrained by sky high gasoline and food prices.
There are still other reasons to fear that the Fed’s newfound monetary policy hawkishness might be putting us on the path to a hard economic landing. For one thing, housing demand is starting to crumble as mortgage rates climb again. Meanwhile, many emerging markets are on the cusp of default, as higher US interest rates cause capital to be repatriated out of their economies, which is putting real pressure on their currencies.
Before embracing the siren calls of those now clamoring for yet more aggressive policy tightening, Powell might do well to heed his own advice of needing to be humble and nimble, especially given today’s highly fragile financial markets. If not, he risks going down in history as not only the one who let the inflation genie out of the bottle, but also as the one who steered the US economy into a recession.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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