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Opinion | The fight over the Democrats' reconciliation bill will likely shape politics for years – The Washington Post

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Senate Democrats have apparently set a $3.5 trillion spending target for the budget reconciliation bill they plan to pass this fall. The battle to come will likely shape American politics for years no matter how it turns out.

No one should consider the dollar amount as etched in stone. Presidents propose; Congresses dispose. And battles between progressives and centrists over all the details will continue to the very end. President Ronald Reagan had to whittle down his initial budget and tax cut proposals to gain congressional approval, and there’s no reason to think the same process won’t result in a smaller package for a final vote.

Even a much smaller bill — say, one that amounts to “only” $2 trillion — would still be a massive expansion of government programs. President Barack Obama’s large 2009 stimulus was for temporary spending measures, much like President Biden’s $1.9 trillion covid-19 relief package passed this year. Whatever is included in the reconciliation bill would be for ongoing expenditures, no matter what the formal expiration date for each is. While other large, new programs — such as Obamacare and President George W. Bush’s Medicare Part D drug program — have been approved in recent decades, the Democratic reconciliation bill would surely be the largest multi-program expansion of federal spending since the Great Society in 1965.

This makes the political stakes extremely high for both major parties. Reagan’s success meant that large-scale domestic program expansion was off the table for decades. Smaller incremental expansions could pass, but the public shot down anything that smacked of permanent “big government” hard and fast. The 1994 and 2010 GOP midterm waves reinforced the initial Reagan-era verdict that the era of ever-expanding government was over.

Democratic success would overturn that verdict. That would require the economy to roar back without significant inflation even after the new programs are implemented. If unemployment is down to 4 or 5 percent and inflation has retreated to something near 3 percent in 2024, Democrats will claim that their new spending approach has worked. “Bidenomics” will be the watchword, and Republicans will likely find themselves in the position that Democrats faced in 1984, when they had to confront the accomplishments of Reaganomics. Republicans will wail and gnash their teeth, but to no avail; the public will likely embrace bigger government.

This will then set the foundation for future expansion. Much as Reagan’s victory set the stage for the 1996 welfare reform, the 1997 balanced budget agreement and tax cuts in 2001, 2003 and 2017, a Biden victory would set the stage for adding the elements not included in this year’s package. More spending on climate change, a public option for health insurance and a host of other items on the progressive wish-list would all become possible.

This, in turn, will force Republicans to adapt. They, like Clinton-era Democrats, will have to present themselves as interpreters of the new paradigm rather than its opponents. The anti-government right won’t like this any more than the progressive left liked Bill Clinton’s turn, but it will have to live with it. Once the public has set the contours and direction of public discourse, one can only bend the tide, not reverse it.

Democratic failure, on the other hand, would reinvigorate a faltering Reagan-era consensus. If inflation takes off and reaches heights not seen since the 1970s, Republicans will be well-positioned. They will say “I told you so” and reap the political benefits as America’s upper middle class overlooks cultural disagreements with the party’s right and votes their pocketbooks. Inflation is the scourge of wage earners. People with modest savings will watch as their salaries can’t keep up and their nest eggs melt away. Even inflation in the range of 7 percent, if sustained, would be higher than most Americans have experienced and would affect every aspect of daily life. Democrats’ political agenda will not survive if that happens.

That outcome could give the right something that even Reagan couldn’t bequeath: the political capital to cut entitlement spending. Reagan mainly critiqued welfare, government regulations and high tax levels, not the core redistribution to working America that entitlements represent. If Biden’s expansion of entitlement spending is seen to fuel inflation, then cutting that spending might be seen as inflation’s cure. A GOP-controlled Washington in 2025 could then prune and repeal Biden-era domestic programs. It could even cautiously limit spending on the big entitlement programs, Social Security and Medicare — the Holy Grail for a generation of fiscally conservative activists.

Biden is America’s oldest president and campaigned as having the cautious temperament often associated with the elderly. Instead, he has boldly thrown the dice to try for an audacious paradigm shift. Win or lose, that gamble will change American politics.

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Quebec consumer rights bill to regulate how merchants can ask for tips

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Quebec wants to curb excessive tipping.

Simon Jolin-Barrette, minister responsible for consumer protection, has tabled a bill to force merchants to calculate tips based on the price before tax.

That means on a restaurant bill of $100, suggested tips would be calculated based on $100, not on $114.98 after provincial and federal sales taxes are added.

The bill would also increase the rebate offered to consumers when the price of an item at the cash register is higher than the shelf price, to $15 from $10.

And it would force grocery stores offering a discounted price for several items to clearly list the unit price as well.

Businesses would also have to indicate whether taxes will be added to the price of food products.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Youri Chassin quits CAQ to sit as Independent, second member to leave this month

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Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.

He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.

In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.

Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.

He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.

Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.

He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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‘I’m not going to listen to you’: Singh responds to Poilievre’s vote challenge

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MONTREAL – NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says he will not be taking advice from Pierre Poilievre after the Conservative leader challenged him to bring down government.

“I say directly to Pierre Poilievre: I’m not going to listen to you,” said Singh on Wednesday, accusing Poilievre of wanting to take away dental-care coverage from Canadians, among other things.

“I’m not going to listen to your advice. You want to destroy people’s lives, I want to build up a brighter future.”

Earlier in the day, Poilievre challenged Singh to commit to voting non-confidence in the government, saying his party will force a vote in the House of Commons “at the earliest possibly opportunity.”

“I’m asking Jagmeet Singh and the NDP to commit unequivocally before Monday’s byelections: will they vote non-confidence to bring down the costly coalition and trigger a carbon tax election, or will Jagmeet Singh sell out Canadians again?” Poilievre said.

“It’s put up or shut up time for the NDP.”

While Singh rejected the idea he would ever listen to Poilievre, he did not say how the NDP would vote on a non-confidence motion.

“I’ve said on any vote, we’re going to look at the vote and we’ll make our decision. I’m not going to say our decision ahead of time,” he said.

Singh’s top adviser said on Tuesday the NDP leader is not particularly eager to trigger an election, even as the Conservatives challenge him to do just that.

Anne McGrath, Singh’s principal secretary, says there will be more volatility in Parliament and the odds of an early election have risen.

“I don’t think he is anxious to launch one, or chomping at the bit to have one, but it can happen,” she said in an interview.

New Democrat MPs are in a second day of meetings in Montreal as they nail down a plan for how to navigate the minority Parliament this fall.

The caucus retreat comes one week after Singh announced the party has left the supply-and-confidence agreement with the governing Liberals.

It’s also taking place in the very city where New Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat on Monday, when voters go to the polls in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. A second byelection is being held that day in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona, where the NDP is hoping to hold onto a seat the Conservatives are also vying for.

While New Democrats are seeking to distance themselves from the Liberals, they don’t appear ready to trigger a general election.

Singh signalled on Tuesday that he will have more to say Wednesday about the party’s strategy for the upcoming sitting.

He is hoping to convince Canadians that his party can defeat the federal Conservatives, who have been riding high in the polls over the last year.

Singh has attacked Poilievre as someone who would bring back Harper-style cuts to programs that Canadians rely on, including the national dental-care program that was part of the supply-and-confidence agreement.

The Canadian Press has asked Poilievre’s office whether the Conservative leader intends to keep the program in place, if he forms government after the next election.

With the return of Parliament just days away, the NDP is also keeping in mind how other parties will look to capitalize on the new makeup of the House of Commons.

The Bloc Québécois has already indicated that it’s written up a list of demands for the Liberals in exchange for support on votes.

The next federal election must take place by October 2025 at the latest.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

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