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Opinion | The U.S. Economy Is Booming. Why Do Americans Feel Bad? – The New York Times

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By the usual measures, the U.S. economy has been booming this year. Employment has risen by more than five million since January; a record number of Americans say this is a good time to find a quality job, a sentiment reflected in the willingness of an unprecedented number of workers to quit (yes, high quit rates are a good sign).

Yet Americans are, or say they are, pessimistic about the economic situation. For example, here’s the widely cited Michigan index of consumer sentiment, which has slid to a level not seen since the depths of the pandemic slump:

University of Michigan

How can people be feeling so bad about a seemingly good economy?

One answer is that Americans are upset about inflation and disrupted supply chains. And that’s surely true. But I’d suggest that it’s only part of the story — that to an important extent, when you ask people about the state of the economy, their replies don’t necessarily reflect their actual experience. Instead, they respond based on what they imagine is happening to other people, a perception that can be shaped by news reports and their own political leanings.

That is, I’m suggesting that public views about the economy are a bit like public views on crime, which many people said was rising even when it was steadily falling.

OK, I don’t want to go all Phil Gramm here. For those who don’t get the reference, Gramm, a former congressman, was an adviser to John McCain during the 2008 presidential campaign, and he made waves by dismissing concerns about the economy. We were, he insisted, only in a “mental recession” and had become a “nation of whiners.”

So for the record, inflation is indeed high by recent standards and supply-chain issues are real, although often overstated. (Retailers are hiring furiously for the holiday season, suggesting that they expect to have plenty to sell.)

Still, when you look into consumer surveys, you find that answers to the question “How is the economy doing?” don’t necessarily track with answers to the question “How are you doing?”

Here’s what the Michigan survey found when it asked people to compare their current financial situation with their situation five years ago; numbers greater than 100 mean improvement. That number has slid a bit since the beginning of this year, but it’s still quite high — in fact, as high as the average for 2019, when the Trump administration was boasting nonstop about the economy:

University of Michigan

Other surveys find similar results. For example, Langer Research Associates breaks its Consumer Confidence Index into components; the number for “personal finances” is far higher than the number for “national economy”:

Langer Research Associates

So Americans, while legitimately troubled by inflation, are feeling pretty good about their own financial situation; their downbeat economic assessment involves a belief that bad things are happening to other people. Where does that belief come from?

To some extent public perceptions may have been shaped by widespread media coverage of preliminary economic reports that suggested a struggling economy. After revisions, the data look much better — most notably, soft preliminary employment numbers for August and September received many headlines, while it’s a good bet that few Americans are aware of later revisions that added more than 200,000 jobs.

And some news organizations have been doing all they can to convey the impression of a troubled economy, whatever the reality. As I suggested, while supply-chain issues are real, their impact is often overstated; empty shelves are actually fairly rare. That, presumably, is why Fox News and Newsmax have been running segments about the Biden economy featuring photos of empty shelves that were taken last year or in other countries.

Which brings me to the effects of partisanship. Republicans and Democrats share the same economy, but their responses to surveys about that economy’s condition are very different. After Donald Trump’s still-not-acknowledged electoral defeat, Republicans turned hugely more negative on the economy, while Democrats turned somewhat more positive:

University of Michigan

So why do Americans feel bad about a seemingly booming economy? Inflation and shortages of some goods are real issues, but much of the economic discontent seems to be based on news reports and partisan leanings, that is, it’s disconnected from personal experience.

This has important implications, among other things, for the politics of economic policy. The economy is likely to get considerably better over the months ahead as the pandemic subsides and snarls in the supply chain get worked out. But there is no guarantee that the American public will even notice these gains. If the Biden administration wants to turn perceptions around, an objectively good economy won’t be enough; the good news will have to be sold, hard.


Milking inflation with dubious numbers.

Weak links in the supply chain.

How Richard Nixon dealt with politically damaging inflation.

The president doesn’t control the price of gasoline.


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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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