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Opinion | The year in Virginia politics and policy – The Washington Post

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It seems a long time ago, but 2021 is the year Virginia became the first former Confederate state to abolish the death penalty.

That, along with a decade of Democrats shutting out Republicans in statewide elections, prompted many media pundits to proclaim Virginia as solidly, perhaps permanently, blue.

The November elections disproved that assessment.

It is tempting to read the outcome of a single election cycle as transformative or at least having some lasting meaning for the status of the major political parties. Just as much was made of Virginia’s transition from red to blue, many observers now look to the 2021 Virginia election as signaling a new political reality in the commonwealth. Yet, had Democratic former governor Terry McAuliffe not uttered those fateful 12 words in the Northern Virginia Chamber of Commerce/Schar School debate, analysts might instead be interpreting the outcome in the context of a long Democratic trend with no end in sight.

The Republican sweep of the offices of governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general and the GOP winning a majority in the House of Delegates show that Virginia is politically in the mainstream of American politics, a state dominated by moderates who punish perceived excesses toward the left or the right.

From 2012 through the 2020 election, the electoral muscle of Virginia’s slightly left-of-center suburbs, mostly surrounding Washington and Richmond and in Hampton Roads, favored Democrats over the GOP and its increasingly strident brand of conservatism. That was never truer than the four years when Donald Trump was in the spotlight, either as a Republican candidate or as president, a period that culminated in his 10-percentage point defeat at Democrat Joe Biden’s hands in 2020.

Republicans were in a tailspin in Virginia at the start of 2021 from a fresh electoral defeat worsened by the Jan. 6 pro-Trump siege at the U.S. Capitol. Since the 2013 election, the GOP had held no statewide elective office in the commonwealth. Democrats have owned both U.S. Senate seats since 2009 and won a majority of Virginia’s U.S. House seats in 2018. The 2019 legislative elections gave the Democrats state Senate and House majorities for the first time since 1999.

The last time Democrats enjoyed such wall-to-wall power in Virginia was the late 1960s, before the state’s first elected Republican governor, Linwood Holton, broke their stranglehold.

This time, the Democrats’ dominance was fleeting because Republicans turned out last month in unprecedented numbers and because suburbanites who had leaned Democratic were unimpressed with what they saw from the party and wanted change.

It’s a stretch to say that Virginia is now right of the political center because of one election. Every election is different with campaigns litigated over ever-changing social, economic and governmental situations.

In 2020, as with the three preceding years, Trump’s low esteem in Virginia’s educated, affluent suburbs that are closely tied economically to the federal government galvanized voters in support of Democrats.

A year later, however, with Trump out of office if not out of sight, with Biden’s job-approval ratings dropping over his domestic policy agenda stalemated in a Democratic Congress and a foreign policy debacle in Afghanistan and with Virginia Democrats swiftly and aggressively enacting progressive legislation, voters became uneasy.

Republicans read the tea leaves correctly, nominated a fresh face to lead a diverse ticket and made their case for change that addressed Virginians’ real-life concerns. McAuliffe unwittingly aided their cause, sticking with an inflexible strategy of claiming GOP nominee Glenn Youngkin was a Trump proxy at the expense of touting Democratic achievements and his own popular policy proposals.

Largely on the potent and timely GOP arguments over who controls local public-school policy, the promise of tax cuts amid rampant inflation and support for law enforcement after a year of sometimes violent unrest, the GOP influenced enough suburban voters to suppress the Democrats’ inherent advantages in suburban and exurban localities.

Sometimes an election outcome, especially a close one, results primarily from the idiosyncrasies of the candidates’ campaigns, their strategies, short-term shifting in the public focus on issues that drive voting and events over which the candidates and parties have no control.

There is no evidence in public opinion or exit polling that in 2021 Virginia suddenly shifted right. Virginia started the year as a competitive two-party state and ended 2021 the same, although with a different party mostly in control of the levers of power.

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Gould calls Poilievre a ‘fraudster’ over his carbon price warning

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OTTAWA – Liberal House leader Karina Gould lambasted Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre as a “fraudster” this morning after he said the federal carbon price is going to cause a “nuclear winter.”

Gould was speaking just before the House of Commons is set to reopen following the summer break.

“What I heard yesterday from Mr. Poilievre was so over the top, so irresponsible, so immature, and something that only a fraudster would do,” she said from Parliament Hill.

On Sunday Poilievre said increasing the carbon price will cause a “nuclear winter,” painting a dystopian picture of people starving and freezing because they can’t afford food or heat due the carbon price.

He said the Liberals’ obsession with carbon pricing is “an existential threat to our economy and our way of life.”

The carbon price currently adds about 17.6 cents to every litre of gasoline, but that cost is offset by carbon rebates mailed to Canadians every three months. The Parliamentary Budget Office provided analysis that showed eight in 10 households receive more from the rebates than they pay in carbon pricing, though the office also warned that long-term economic effects could harm jobs and wage growth.

Gould accused Poilievre of ignoring the rebates, and refusing to tell Canadians how he would make life more affordable while battling climate change. The Liberals have also accused the Conservatives of dismissing the expertise of more than 200 economists who wrote a letter earlier this year describing the carbon price as the least expensive, most efficient way to lower emissions.

Poilievre is pushing for the other opposition parties to vote the government down and trigger what he calls a “carbon tax election.”

The recent decision by the NDP to break its political pact with the government makes an early election more likely, but there does not seem to be an interest from either the Bloc Québécois or the NDP to have it happen immediately.

Poilievre intends to bring a non-confidence motion against the government as early as this week but would likely need both the Bloc and NDP to support it.

Gould said she has no “crystal ball” over when or how often Poilievre might try to bring down the government

“I know that the end of the supply and confidence agreement makes things a bit different, but really all it does is returns us to a normal minority parliament,” she said. “And that means that we will work case-by-case, legislation-by-legislation with whichever party wants to work with us. I have already been in touch with all of the House leaders in the opposition parties and my job now is to make Parliament work for Canadians.”

She also insisted the government has listened to the concerns raised by Canadians, and received the message when the Liberals lost a Toronto byelection in June in seat the party had held since 1997.

“We certainly got the message from Toronto-St. Paul’s and have spent the summer reflecting on what that means and are coming back to Parliament, I think, very clearly focused on ensuring that Canadians are at the centre of everything that we do moving forward,” she said.

The Liberals are bracing, however, for the possibility of another blow Monday night, in a tight race to hold a Montreal seat in a byelection there. Voters in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun are casting ballots today to replace former justice minister David Lametti, who was removed from cabinet in 2023 and resigned as an MP in January.

The Conservatives and NDP are also in a tight race in Elmwood-Transcona, a Winnipeg seat that has mostly been held by the NDP over the last several decades.

There are several key bills making their way through the legislative process, including the online harms act and the NDP-endorsed pharmacare bill, which is currently in the Senate.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Voters head to the polls for byelections in Montreal and Winnipeg

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OTTAWA – Canadians in two federal ridings are choosing their next member of Parliament today, and political parties are closely watching the results.

Winnipeg’s Elmwood —Transcona seat has been vacant since the NDP’s Daniel Blaikie left federal politics.

The New Democrats are hoping to hold onto the riding and polls suggest the Conservatives are in the running.

The Montreal seat of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun opened up when former justice minister David Lametti left politics.

Polls suggest the race is tight between the Liberal candidate and the Bloc Québécois, but the NDP is also hopeful it can win.

The Conservatives took over a Liberal stronghold seat in another byelection in Toronto earlier this summer, a loss that sent shock waves through the governing party and intensified calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down as leader.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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Next phase of federal foreign interference inquiry to begin today in Ottawa

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OTTAWA – The latest phase of a federal inquiry into foreign interference is set to kick off today with remarks from commissioner Marie-Josée Hogue.

Several weeks of public hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign interference.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and key government officials took part in hearings earlier this year as the inquiry explored allegations that Beijing tried to meddle in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections.

Hogue’s interim report, released in early May, said Beijing’s actions did not affect the overall results of the two general elections.

The report said while outcomes in a small number of ridings may have been affected by interference, this cannot be said with certainty.

Trudeau, members of his inner circle and senior security officials are slated to return to the inquiry in coming weeks.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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