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Economy

Opinion: Throne Speech addresses building the economy, but where's the strategy? – The Globe and Mail

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Governor General Mary Simon delivers the Throne Speech in Ottawa on Nov. 23.POOL/Reuters

The title of Tuesday’s Speech from the Throne was “Building a Resilient Economy.” Don’t be fooled. This document may be many things, but it’s devoid of vision for an economic rebuild.

The text of the speech itself – intended to lay out the priorities of the government at the start of a new legislative session – does contain the word “economy” 11 times. Yet even for a document that typically is big on broad aspirational assertions and thin on specific policy intentions, there is shockingly little meat on those “economy” bones. (As my colleague Andrew Coyne pointed out in a Twitter post, the words “productivity,” “investment” and “growth” appear in the text a combined ZERO times.)

The re-elected Liberal government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has presented a game plan in which economic renewal is not so much a priority in itself, but rather a byproduct of the biggest files on the government’s to-do list. In the short term, the core of the plan is “end the pandemic.” For everything beyond that, it’s “green the environment.”

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Trudeau government’s Speech from the Throne contains warning that ‘Earth is in danger’

There is a lot of truth in that. These are crucial factors that will go a long way in determining the economy’s stability and growth trajectory, regardless of anything else our federal government pulls out of its policy hat. Nevertheless, the fact that public-health and environmental policies have economic ramifications hardly makes them the centrepieces of a coherent economic strategy.

Of course, a Throne Speech is far from a definitive statement on any government’s plans. The fall economic update expected in the next few weeks should reveal much more about this government’s intentions and their cost.

Nevertheless, the opening message from Mr. Trudeau entering his renewed mandate seems to be that if we do well on his government’s biggest priorities, the economy will come along for the ride. There’s little evidence of a coherent postpandemic strategy to build a stronger, more resilient, more productive and competitive Canadian economy.

The speech did address two major Liberal commitments that represent critical contributors to Canada’s future economic well-being: national affordable child care and increased immigration. Both are, at their heart, economic policies – the ultimate goal is to expand our labour capacity and efficiency, which is important for future growth. But these are re-affirmations of the policies of past Justin Trudeau governments. This is not new economic vision, it’s unfinished business.

In terms of new ideas, we’re still waiting. We waited through an election campaign, and now through a Throne Speech.

“Other countries are launching ambitious plans to unleash innovation, lower taxes and slash red tape to get their economies surging – and we see nothing from Justin Trudeau,” Conservative Party Leader Erin O’Toole said on Wednesday.

Whether you agree or not with the kinds of actions Mr. O’Toole suggests, they’re a lot more than the Liberals are talking about at this stage.

A government that was truly dedicating its mandate to building a better economic future would be stating an objective to finally remove interprovincial trade barriers, an absolute no-brainer to unlock economic potential, raise productivity and accelerate Canadian business competitiveness. A much-cited 2019 paper from the International Monetary Fund, co-authored by University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe, estimated that the elimination of barriers to trade in goods from province to province would boost per-capita gross domestic product by about 4 per cent.

A government committed to economic renewal would launch a long-overdue full review of the antiquated Canadian tax code, a convoluted mish-mash of measures bolted onto a framework designed for an economy of more than 50 years ago. Critics have been saying for years that a revamp of the tax system could create a more competitive and attractive environment to foster business growth, investment and innovation. As a start, a healthy and sustained recovery will be elusive without an awakening of the country’s chronically lacklustre business spending – a problem crying out for policy measures as we emerge from the pandemic.

A government focused on economic priorities would direct its energies to a new strategy for education and retraining, to address the deepening skills mismatches in this country. Labour shortages, especially in specialized high-skill areas and in emerging technologies, were a problem long before the pandemic; the crisis has reshaped the labour landscape in ways that will demand new thinking and new policy.

The Throne Speech offers none of that. It pays lip service to our future economic security while avoiding committing itself to any new and ambitious ideas that would truly help achieve that. Its best ideas are old ones.

Let’s hope this Throne Speech is just a placeholder while the government prepares a more meaningful and concrete approach to the country’s biggest economic challenges. After almost two years of crisis and an unnecessary election, this is not nearly enough.

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Poland has EU's second highest emissions in relation to size of economy – Notes From Poland

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Poland has EU’s second highest emissions in relation to size of economy  Notes From Poland

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IMF's Georgieva warns "there's plenty to worry about'' in world economy — including inflation, debt – Yahoo Canada Finance

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WASHINGTON (AP) — The head of the International Monetary Fund said Thursday that the world economy has proven surprisingly resilient in the face of higher interest rates and the shock of war in Ukraine and Gaza, but “there is plenty to worry about,” including stubborn inflation and rising levels of government debt.

Inflation is down but not gone,” Kristalina Georgieva told reporters at the spring meeting of the IMF and its sister organization, the World Bank. In the United States, she said, “the flipside” of unexpectedly strong economic growth is that it ”taking longer than expected” to bring inflation down.

Georgieva also warned that government debts are growing around the world. Last year, they ticked up to 93% of global economic output — up from 84% in 2019 before the response to the COVID-19 pandemic pushed governments to spend more to provide healthcare and economic assistance. She urged countries to more efficiently collect taxes and spend public money. “In a world where the crises keep coming, countries must urgently build fiscal resilience to be prepared for the next shock,” she said.

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On Tuesday, the IMF said it expects to the global economy to grow 3.2% this year, a modest upgrade from the forecast it made in January and unchanged from 2023. It also expects a third straight year of 3.2% growth in 2025.

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The world economy has proven unexpectedly sturdy, but it remains weak by historical standards: Global growth averaged 3.8% from 2000 to 2019.

One reason for sluggish global growth, Georgieva said, is disappointing improvement in productivity. She said that countries had not found ways to most efficiently match workers and technology and that years of low interest rates — that only ended after inflation picked up in 2021 — had allowed “firms that were not competitive to stay afloat.”

She also cited in many countries an aging “labor force that doesn’t bring the dynamism” needed for faster economic growth.

The United States has been an exception to the weak productivity gains over the past year. Compared to Europe, Georgieva said, America makes it easier for businesses to bring innovations to the marketplace and has lower energy costs.

She said countries could help their economies by slashing bureaucratic red tape and getting more women into the job market.

Paul Wiseman, The Associated Press

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Nigeria’s Economy, Once Africa’s Biggest, Slips to Fourth Place – BNN Bloomberg

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(Bloomberg) — Nigeria’s economy, which ranked as Africa’s largest in 2022, is set to slip to fourth place this year and Egypt, which held the top position in 2023, is projected to fall to second behind South Africa after a series of currency devaluations, International Monetary Fund forecasts show.

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook estimates Nigeria’s gross domestic product at $253 billion based on current prices this year, lagging energy-rich Algeria at $267 billion, Egypt at $348 billion and South Africa at $373 billion. 

Africa’s most industrialized nation will remain the continent’s largest economy until Egypt reclaims the mantle in 2027, while Nigeria is expected to remain in fourth place for years to come, the data released this week shows.   

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Nigeria and Egypt’s fortunes have dimmed as they deal with high inflation and a plunge in their currencies.

Bola Tinubu has announced significant policy reforms since he became Nigeria’s president at the end of May 2023, including allowing the currency to float more freely, scrapping costly energy and gasoline subsidies and taking steps to address dollar shortages. Despite a recent rebound, the naira is still 50% weaker against the greenback than what it was prior to him taking office after two currency devaluations.

Read More: Why Nigeria’s Currency Rebounded and What It Means: QuickTake

Egypt, one of the emerging world’s most-indebted countries and the IMF’s second-biggest borrower after Argentina, has also allowed its currency to float, triggering an almost 40% plunge in the pound’s value against the dollar last month to attract investment.

The IMF had been calling for a flexible currency regime for many months and the multilateral lender rewarded Egypt’s government by almost tripling the size of a loan program first approved in 2022 to $8 billion. This was a catalyst for a further influx of around $14 billion in financial support from the European Union and the World Bank. 

Read More: Egypt Avoided an Economic Meltdown. What Next?: QuickTake

Unlike Nigeria’s naira and Egypt’s pound, the value of South Africa’s rand has long been set in the financial markets and it has lost about 4% of its value against the dollar this year. Its economy is expected to benefit from improvements to its energy supply and plans to tackle logistic bottlenecks.

Algeria, an OPEC+ member has been benefiting from high oil and gas prices caused first by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and now tensions in the Middle East. It stepped in to ease some of Europe’s gas woes after Russia curtailed supplies amid its war in Ukraine. 

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

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