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U.S. Federal Reserve taking path laid out by Bank of Canada in rate decision

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People walk by the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on June 14 in New York City. Markets fell over 200 points following news that the Federal Reserve announced Wednesday that it was keeping its interest rate at around 5 per cent – the first time it has not raised the rate in over a year.Spencer Platt/Getty Images

On the twisting road to get inflation back to the desired destination of 2 per cent, the U.S. Federal Reserve has decided to try something a little different: putting its foot on the brake and the gas at the same time.

On Wednesday, the central bank decided to hold its federal funds rate steady in a range of 5 per cent to 5.25 per cent. That ended a streak of 10 consecutive meetings, dating back to March, 2022, in which it raised its policy rate.

It would mark a momentous shift in Fed policy direction – except it isn’t.

In the same breath, the Fed made it crystal clear that it’s not done raising rates at all. In fact, the members of the Federal Open Market Committee – the group that sets interest rates – indicated that they expect to increase rates by another half-percentage point before the end of this year. (That’s also a half-percentage point higher than those FOMC members projected in March, when they were last polled on where they thought the policy rate would top out this year.)

So the Fed is merely taking a time out to catch its breath before finishing the job that it has been on steadily for 15 months. Readers, meet The Skip – the Fed’s twist on the new wrinkle that the Bank of Canada introduced earlier this year, The Pause.

In the grander scheme, we’re seeing the Fed declare, in advance, that it expects to follow a path already laid out by its Canadian counterpart. The Bank of Canada signalled at the beginning of the year that it would put its rate hikes on hold while it watched to see how its large increases of the previous year were worming into the economy, and to decide whether rates looked sufficiently restrictive to suppress inflation down to the 2-per-cent target.

After following through on The Pause in March, the Bank of Canada called it off last week – raising its policy rate by another quarter-point to 4.75 per cent.

The Fed is not only mimicking that process, it’s using a lot of the same words the Bank of Canada used in doing so. In its rate decision statement, the Fed talks about taking time to assess additional information in order to determine how much further tightening might be “appropriate.” If it’s not stealing from the Bank of Canada’s book, it’s certainly a substantial homage.

But where The Skip differs is that the Fed is saying – out loud – that it fully expects to find out the same thing the Bank of Canada did: that rates still aren’t quite high enough to snuff out the last embers of the inflation problem.

Even as the Fed takes its break, it’s looking at a lot of the same things that prompted the Bank of Canada to get back on the rate-hike treadmill. The labour market is loosening a bit but is still way too tight. The economy is growing faster than expected. The sliding housing has found its footing. And, critically, core inflation measures – which are designed to get at the broader inflationary pressures across the economy – have remained stubbornly high, even at total inflation has retreated.

The U.S. consumer price index report this week showed that inflation rate fell to 4 per cent, its lowest in more than two years, but the core measure was a much more worrisome 5.3 per cent. The core measure for personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation – the Fed’s go-to gauge – was 4.7 per cent in April, and has been stuck in a rut since November. FOMC members substantially increased their end-of-year projections for core PCE on Wednesday.

As Fed Chair Jerome Powell told a postannouncement news conference, lots of indicators are trending in the right direction, but not fast or far enough to make a convincing case for ending rate increases. Nevertheless, he said the Fed wants to take things a little slower as it looks for the finish line for this rate cycle. That might mean that the central bank will skip an occasional meeting as it goes; maybe every other meeting will be a rate increase for a while, giving it more time in between hikes to gather data.

Had the Fed shifted into a genuine holding pattern with Wednesday’s decision, it might have provided the Bank of Canada with a window to do a bit of catching up.

It’s a popular misconception that Canada’s central bank feels compelled to move its rates in line with its U.S. counterpart; it simply isn’t the way the bank operates. Still, a rising Canadian rate policy at the same time as a steady Fed policy would likely deliver upward pressure to the Canadian dollar, lowering the cost of imports while weighing on demand for Canadian exports. That would take a bit of heat off Canadian inflation at an opportune time.

With the Fed clearly signalling that more hikes are coming, the Bank of Canada can’t look in that direction for help. It won’t change the Bank of Canada’s thinking about taking another pause – or a skip of its own. But it might make that option a little less likely, come the next rate decision in July.

 

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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