adplus-dvertising
Connect with us

Economy

Organized crime in the fisheries sector threatens a sustainable ocean economy – Nature.com

Published

 on


To reach a sustainable ocean economy requires balancing the use of the ocean space and its resources with the long-term carrying capacity of the ocean’s ecosystems23. In line with the three-pillared concept of sustainable development under the Rio process, a sustainable ocean economy should be based on the sustainable use of the ocean from an economic, social and environmental perspective24. Agenda 2030 (adopted at the UN Sustainable Development Summit on 25 September 2015) extends the three dimensions of sustainability to five areas of critical importance (namely, people, prosperity, peace, partnership and planet), which should inform synergized interagency policy interventions that will enable the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Organized crime in the fisheries sector has the potential to severely undermine the efforts of the member states to achieve a range of SDGs, including ‘zero hunger’ (SDG2), ‘decent work and economic growth’ (SDG8), ‘responsible consumption and production’ (SDG12) and ‘life below water’ (SDG14). SDG16 (peace, justice and strong institutions) is a core enabler of the other SDGs25, and the targets of SDG16 have particular resonance in the context of addressing manifestations of organized crime in fisheries25. This is especially important for vulnerable coastal communities with few alternative livelihood options, which renders them susceptible to recruitment by organized criminal networks.

In the sections below, we introduce the most common serious offences that may comprise manifestations of organized crime in the fisheries sector. Illustrative examples are included to highlight how the effects of these crimes may impede the pursuit of a sustainable ocean economy. The cited examples underscore how the various types of crimes interact and how these crimes, when they converge in the real world—particularly in vulnerable communities—may give rise to a range of complex adverse impacts.

300x250x1

Fraud

A large amount of documentation is produced along the fisheries value chain, which generates considerable potential for fraud (that is, the deliberate misrepresentation or concealing of facts for undue benefit)17. For example, in the Viking case, false vessel registration documents were submitted at port, comprising text that had clearly been cut and pasted from Google translate and using ordinary word-processing software19. Fishing vessel identity fraud occurs when a vessel’s identity is changed by, for example, not flying the correct flag at port or by physically hiding a vessel’s name to render it anonymous19. This is associated with ‘flag hopping’, a pattern of re-registering a vessel with new flag states to confound investigations into its illegal operations, as occurred with the Viking19.

Fraudulent practices harm the reputation of both the legitimate fishing industry and the flag state in question. Furthermore, fraudulent fishing licences deprive coastal states of revenue from the legitimate allocation of fishing rights.

On the basis of fraudulent landing certificates, Trinidad and Tobago is cited as the world’s sixth largest shark fin exporter to Hong Kong26; the fins, in fact, are landed by foreign fishing vessels and merely transit Trinidad and Tobago ports (Republic of Trinidad and Tobago Fisheries Division, personal communication), contributing to the global international illegal trade of shark fins27. In 2014, Trinidad and Tobago was also cited by the Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) as trading in Patagonian toothfish, which is in conflict with the region’s fisheries management agreement; however, it was discovered that the trade documents attached to the toothfish exports to Canada that cited Trinidad and Tobago as the port of origin were fraudulent. Fraudulent practices can also give rise to food hygiene risks. At landing, for example, false customs and health documentation can disguise the origin of the catch or the flag of the vessel to avoid paying import tariffs or complying with food hygiene regulations17.

In some instances, fish and fish products are fraudulently labelled to avoid paying higher customs duty on high-value species, enabling tax crime28,29 and thereby depriving coastal states of a further stream of economic revenue.

Tax crime and money laundering

The fisheries sector lends itself to tax crime given the ease with which criminals can change a vessel’s country of origin and identity and use fictitious companies as registered vessel owners; this facilitates channelling profits to shell companies in tax havens to avoid paying tax where the profit was generated19. Tax havens (secrecy jurisdictions) are jurisdictions that lack transparency around the beneficial ownership of bank accounts and companies, making it particularly difficult to identify and prove tax crimes.

Tax crime covers a range of violations of tax and revenue rules that are criminalized in law. The loss of tax revenue through tax crimes in fisheries is estimated to be considerable, which severely undermines the development benefits of the sector and particularly adversely affects states in the Global South28. In Indonesia, an audit of 187 fishing companies by the Tax Directorate General in 2016 identified potential unpaid tax revenues of around IDR235 billion (more than US$16 million). The introduction of law enforcement and policy reform in Indonesia against fisheries crime has contributed to a marked increase in tax revenue from the fisheries sector (US$113 million in 2018)30 (along with an increase in fish stocks31,32).

Money laundering—the intentional concealing or disguising of the illicit origins of the proceeds of crime13—is a type of tax crime and may also be an indication of corruption. Organized criminal networks engage in money laundering in the fisheries sector to integrate the proceeds of crimes committed along the fisheries value chain, or the proceeds from illicit activities outside the sector33, into the legitimate economy28. Money laundering hampers investigations into organized crime in the fisheries sector and hinders prosecution, including asset recovery, forfeiture of the proceeds of the crime and restitution of illicit gains. In Russia, for instance, the ‘crab mafia’34 has been linked to money laundering (as well as illegal fishing and even assassinations of high-ranking public officials and competitors)35. Many offences committed by organized crime groups in fisheries are ‘predicate offences’ (that is, offences that are a component of a ‘primary’ crime) to money laundering. In Indonesia, fisheries crime is cited as a predicate offence under the Prevention and Eradication of Money Laundering (Anti Money Laundering) Law36.

Corruption

Although there is substantial anecdotal evidence of corruption in the fishing industry, and it is suspected to be an enabling factor of many other crimes in the sector, there is limited formal literature, and few decided cases, on the subject15. Corruption is the giving, soliciting or receiving of any undue advantage that is aimed at causing an official to act or refrain from acting37. This can include, for example, political figures or senior government officials using their positions to influence the allocation of fishing licences to companies in which they have a personal business interest (that is, the abuse of function)17,38,39. An illustrative case that is currently under investigation involves an Icelandic fishing company that allegedly used a bank of a neighbouring country and shell companies in the Pacific to channel bribes to obtain fishing licences in Namibia40.

Corruption may take the form of bribes paid to reduce penalties41, to ignore illegal harvesting of fish15,17 or to endorse landing data that are clearly false, as occurred in the rock lobster case. Bribery may extend throughout the criminal supply chain, as in a San Diego case in which it was alleged that a US company brought approximately US$17 million worth of sea cucumber from Mexico into the USA by illegally bribing officials along the entire supply chain17,42,43.

Corruption in the fisheries sector diverts the revenue that is due to states to the shadow economy and severely undermines advancement towards achieving SDG16, in particular the goal to substantially reduce corruption and bribery.

Drug trafficking

Fishing vessels are ideal modes of transport for the movement of drugs given their legitimate presence at sea, the lack of transparency around their movement, identity and ownership, and their ability to tranship and access small harbours. The use of fishing vessels to facilitate drug trafficking (the illicit trade of substances that are subject to drug prohibition laws44) is well documented, as fishing vessels can be used as mother ships from which smaller vessels traffic drugs, as support vessels for go-fast boats transiting trafficking routes (for example, in the Caribbean) or as smaller vessels that can traffic drugs directly to and from coastal landing sites and tranship the drugs to mother ships beyond coastal jurisdiction20, for example in the Gulf of Guinea41.

Fishing vessels may traffic drugs in conjunction with transporting other illicit goods as well as with the smuggling of migrants. In Trinidad and Tobago, for example, artisanal fishing vessels transport drugs and guns from Venezuela to Trinidad and Tobago as well as illegal migrants and, in Jamaica, fishing canoes transport marijuana to Haiti where it is traded for illegal weapons (the ‘drugs-for-guns’ trade) or cocaine45,46,47. In the Gulf of Guinea, in 2006, a fishing vessel—the MV Benjamin flying a Ghanaian flag—trafficked about 78 parcels (2,340 kg) of cocaine into Ghana labelled as shrimps48.

There is evidence of a close connection between poaching of some high-value species and drug trafficking networks in some parts of the world. In South Africa, for example, poached abalone is bartered with local gangs for the ingredients to manufacture the synthetic drug Mandrax as part of organized criminal networks that illegally export abalone to the East49,50. In Mexico, an intricate transnational poaching, drug trafficking and human trafficking network controls the supply chain of illegally harvested Totoaba bladders, which are exported to China51,52,53. In Colombia, organized drug trafficking in the fisheries sector interfaces with a range of inter-related offences including the trafficking of illegal arms, human trafficking, smuggling of fuel and other contraband, large-scale illegal fishing and wildlife trafficking, the response to which requires coordinated operations between the national police, navy and air forces54.

The influx of drugs through sea routes, often in conjunction with illicit arms, appears to have a range of negative effects on the coastal communities through which they transit, including a rise in the levels of local violence and associated increased security costs for local businesses (for example, in Trinidad and Tobago55), weakened social cohesion and sense of security (for example, in the Yucatán Peninsula (Mexico), associated with the illegal sea cucumber fishery)42 and increased gang-related activity, for example, in Jamaica47,56,57,58. In South Africa, research indicates that remote coastal communities, such as Buffeljagsbaai, are under siege by organized criminal gangs that illegally harvest abalone on their doorsteps50,59, with women in the woman-lead households becoming accomplices to organized poaching operations with the result that they are subject to criminal prosecution59. Given the central role of communities in the supply chain of organized criminal networks, a community-based approach to complement a law enforcement response is arguably valuable and the community, similarly, has a potential preventative role59,60,61,62.

Crime in the labour market

Forced labour—that is, work or services exacted from a person under the threat of a penalty and for which the person did not offer himself or herself voluntarily63—is increasingly highlighted as pervasive in the fisheries sector globally. It is often a consequence of human trafficking64 or ‘trafficking in persons’ (that is, the procuring of and trading in human beings for the purposes of exploitation)13. The problem is documented in a growing body of literature65,66 and is increasingly exposed in the media. For example, in 2017, employees of a Scottish family-owned company operating a fleet of scallop dredgers were arrested in southern England after nine individuals who had been trafficked were found on one of their vessels67. In the port of Puntarenas, Costa Rica, police rescued 36 Asian individuals who had been subjected to labour exploitation on two fishing boats in 2014, arresting four individuals who were charged with human trafficking offences68. In the fishing industry, indicators of forced labour include deception, physical and sexual violence, intimidation, retention of identity documents, withholding of wages, debt bondage and abusive working conditions64. Recruitment agencies play a central part in facilitating human trafficking for forced labour66. In 2016, a foreign network operating out of north Norway in the Barents Sea crab fisheries was identified as making use of forced labour69,70; allegedly a Seychelles recruitment agency, together with Norwegian port agents, facilitated the smuggling of migrant fishers from Indonesia to Norway.

Criminal networks in fisheries use forced labour to cut costs and boost profits71. In addition to the implications for human rights, this results in unfair competition with legal operators, which, in turn, can influence legitimate fishing companies to breach domestic crewing regulations in an attempt to remain competitive, such as in the Norwegian snow-crab sector69,70,72 and in Russia73.

Fisheries offences

Illegal fishing—fishing in violation of fisheries laws and measures—may also be a criminal offence if it is criminalized under the law of the relevant jurisdiction. Some jurisdictions have severe criminal penalties for fisheries offences, such as Norway, in which grave offences attract a prison sentence of up to six years plus asset forfeiture. Illegal fishing is criminalized in many jurisdictions around the world, including Ghana, Indonesia and South Africa74,75. In practice, regardless of whether or not illegal fishing has been criminalized in a jurisdiction, illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing is a strong risk indicator of fisheries crime76,77.

The adverse effects of large-scale overfishing are well documented78. This includes the severe negative impacts on the state of commercially exploitable fish stocks: 2009 data estimated that 18% of the global catch, valued at US$10–23.5 billion, between 2000 and 2003 was lost to illegal or unreported fishing79. The latest figures of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (2015 data) estimate that 59.9% of the world’s commercial fish stocks are now fully fished and a third of the global fish stocks are overexploited80. As fish stocks decline, the resource becomes more valuable, attracting increasing involvement of transnational organized crime syndicates20. Successful prosecution of organized networks can have positive effects on the targeted stocks, as illustrated by the rock lobster case, which resulted in the marked recovery of the targeted species (south coast rock lobster)81.

Large-scale illegal fishing can cause severe economic loss to coastal states: the combined annual economic losses due to illegal fishing to Mauritania, Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea Bissau, Guinea and Sierra Leone, for example, are estimated at US$2.3 billion48,82. A recent global study83 estimates that between 7.7 and 14.0 million metric tons of unreported fish catches are potentially traded illicitly each year, suggesting that gross revenues of between US$8.9 and US$17.2 billion are annually redirected out of the legitimate market through illicit trade. Asia, Africa and South America account for approximately 85% of total catch losses to likely illicit trade globally. Africa is estimated to experience between US$7.6 and US$13.9 billion and US$1.8 and US$3.3 billion in losses annually in economic and income impacts, respectively, owing to the redirection of catches from legitimate to illicit seafood trade83.

In fishing communities with few alternative livelihood options, low-level poaching may change into, or co-exist alongside, organized criminal activity. In South Africa, this is evident in the context of abalone and west coast rock lobster fishing, where the boundaries between ‘protest poaching’, opportunistic poaching and facilitation of, or involvement in, organized criminal activity are porous and often overlap59. The overexploitation of west coast rock lobster84, for example, has led to thousands of subsistence fishers being unable to secure sufficient quotas with the result that some have turned to illegal alternative-income-generating activities85.

The UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food86 has underscored the importance of curtailing illegal fishing to prevent further adverse effects on food security. Fisheries provide an estimated 17% of animal protein consumed worldwide, with the highest per capita consumption in developing small-island states80. In the West African region of the Gulf of Guinea, where around 40% of the population resides in coastal areas, fish is the predominant (and sometimes, only) source of animal protein consumed in coastal communities87. In Jamaica, where large-scale overfishing has left most reef fish stocks overexploited88, the country is almost entirely dependent on imported fish for domestic consumption.

The marine environment and associated ecosystems may also be negatively affected by organized crime in fisheries: piracy and armed robbery at sea in the Gulf of Guinea pose threats to the marine environment because of the risk of oil or chemical spills caused by the use of destructive weapons to attack vessels and the transfer of the targeted vessel’s cargo89. In Nigeria, some local fishers struggling to sustain their livelihoods engage in illegal fishing in the vicinity of oil pipeline installations, which risks causing oil leaks and marine pollution90. In Mexico, fishers adversely affected by the poorly regulated governmental conservation measures in the Gulf of California have turned to totoaba poaching because of the lack of legitimate alternative livelihoods52. The use of gill nets in this illegal activity has brought the vaquita porpoise (caught as bycatch) to the brink of extinction and resulted in severe damage to the large marine ecosystem of the Upper Gulf of California51,91. Illegal dynamite (‘blast’) fishing, associated with explosives trafficking, off the Tanzanian coast is highly destructive to the affected marine habitat, including coral reefs, and fish stocks, and has broad food security ramifications92,93.

Smuggling

The fishing industry provides ideal cover for smuggling of otherwise legal goods from one jurisdiction to another in violation of the law (often to avoid customs duties). In Ecuador, for example, artisanal fishers smuggle subsidized Ecuadorian fuel to the neighbouring coast of Colombia, where it is sold at considerable profit94 and Trinidad and Tobago fishing vessels have been implicated in the illegal trade of fuel. Ghana is reportedly at risk of losing about GHS1.5 billion (US$300 million) to the smuggling of fuel, which is trafficked by fishing vessels and canoes95. Fuel is often smuggled alongside illicit goods, such as drugs, illegal weapons and illegally harvested fish, as well as people94.

The use of fishing vessels to smuggle migrants (that is, to facilitate or assist migrants to enter a country illegally for financial or material benefit13) is alleged to be prevalent, but is less well documented formally. The public media reports that artisanal fishing vessels are the mode of transport to traffic migrant women from South America to Trinidad and Tobago, where some are forced into prostitution and others are transported to the USA96. There are also indications that fishing vessels are linked to migrant smuggling in the Mediterranean Sea20,97,98,99, Australia100 and Thailand101.

Security threats at sea

Various offences that occur at sea present a threat to peace and security; this can include offences falling within the ambit of organized crime in fisheries. ‘Fisheries conflicts’—which may arise from a combination of factors, including illegal fishing (along with climate change and food security concerns)—are recognized as a potential threat to maritime security and livelihoods and there is a growing body of literature on the topic90,102,103,104. In the Gulf of Guinea, numerous organized criminal activities at sea threaten peace and security, including piracy and armed robbery, kidnapping for ransom, fuel and gas robbery and smuggling, drugs and arms trafficking and illegal fishing2. This adversely affects the economic bases of the region’s states through, for example, increased insurance premiums for cargo vessels, which hinders the movement of goods and services and results in lost income for businesses and governments and an increase in the price of goods and services105,106. In Nigeria, for example, piracy and armed robbery at sea is associated with a diminished contribution from the domestic fishing sector to the gross domestic product (GDP) as fewer licensed fee-paying vessels are willing to go to sea90,107. Furthermore, coastal fishers who fear putting out to sea in Nigeria due to violent attacks from illegal fishing vessels have been recruited by organized criminal networks engaging in armed robbery at sea and oil smuggling, and fishmongers—who are predominantly women—have in some instances turned to prostitution to make ends meet90,108.

A recent Security Council Resolution expressed concern over the links between international terrorism and organized crime, including transnational organized crime at sea109. The Security Council has further highlighted the complex relationship between large-scale illegal fishing and the international crime of piracy (as defined in the UN International Law of the Sea)110, in Somali waters in the Indian Ocean111,112,113; a similar link has been argued in the case of Southeast Asia114.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Canada will take bigger economic hit than U.S. if Trump wins election: report – Global News

Published

 on


Canada stands to bear a greater economic burden than the United States if Donald Trump wins the upcoming presidential election and imposes promised tax cuts and tariffs on all U.S. imports, a new report warns.

The analysis released Tuesday by Scotiabank Economics says if Trump returns to the White House and follows through on his vow to slap a 10-per cent tariff on all imported goods — with the exception of China, which would face a 60-per cent carve-out on its U.S. exports — and countries retaliate with their own, there would be “substantial negative impacts” on the U.S. economy. GDP would likely fall by more than two per cent by 2027 relative to current forecasts, while inflation would rise 1.5 per cent, leading to a two per cent interest rate hike.

300x250x1

In Canada, the economic impact would be even more stark with an expected GDP drop of 3.6 per cent, given its reliance on trade with the U.S. Inflation and interest rates would also be pushed up for the next two years — 1.7 per cent and 190 basis points, respectively — the report suggests.

“What Trump is looking to do is much broader, and much more concerning, than the tariffs he imposed during his first term,” said Scotiabank’s chief economist Jean-François Perrault, who authored the report.


Click to play video: 'Canada speaking with Trump allies in U.S. to prepare for possible second term: Ambassador Hillman'

9:36
Canada speaking with Trump allies in U.S. to prepare for possible second term: Ambassador Hillman


The report also serves as another reminder that Canada needs to urgently address its issues with lagging productivity, warning the problem makes Canada more vulnerable to economic shocks brought by trade policy changes in the U.S. and abroad.

Perrault says it’s far too late to fix the problem in time for the U.S. election in November.

“It takes a long time to change direction on productivity,” he said in an interview. “Maybe you can make up some ground over the next few quarters, but we need massive amounts of progress to get to where we need to be (to withstand U.S. economic shocks).”

Trump’s policies seen as more likely than Biden’s

Although the analysis examined the impact of policies proposed by both Trump and U.S. President Joe Biden, it focuses more on the fallout from Trump’s promises.


Breaking news from Canada and around the world
sent to your email, as it happens.

That’s because they’re not only more potentially harmful, Perrault said, but also because they’re more likely to be implemented than Biden’s vow to raise the corporate tax rate.

“There’s really no appetite in the U.S. right now for any kind of tax hike,” Perrault said.

Implementing a change to the corporate tax rate would require Biden’s Democrat party to control both chambers of Congress — a scenario seen as highly unlikely, given recent polling. Trump’s proposals, meanwhile, are seen as more likely to be implemented quickly and without congressional approval, particularly his expanded tariffs.

During his presidency, Trump imposed tariffs on about US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods imported to the U.S., later expanding to another US$300 billion, sparking a trade war with China. Many of those tariffs have remained in place under the Biden administration.

Trump also slapped tariffs up to 25 per cent on imported washing machines, solar panels, steel and aluminum in 2018. Canada and Mexico were later exempted from the steel and aluminum tariffs in 2019, although the Canadian aluminum tariff was briefly reintroduced in 2020.


Click to play video: '‘No guarantees’ in trading relationship with Trump administration, Freeland says'

1:17
‘No guarantees’ in trading relationship with Trump administration, Freeland says


U.S. government data shows those tariffs — none of which were legislated or approved by Congress — have cost American manufacturers more than US$230 billion as of March 2024 and have shrunk the U.S. economy by 0.3 per cent.

Trump has repeatedly claimed tariffs serve to punish unfair trade practices from other countries, despite agreement among economists that they raise prices for American consumers, and says he wants to expand them to 10 per cent on all imported goods from every country if he wins in November. He has also said he will seek a 100 per cent tariff on imported cars, and carve out a 60 per cent tariff for Chinese imports specifically.

The most likely scenario — a continuation of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts beyond their 2025 expiration combined with across-the-board tariffs — would see Canada’s GDP stay three per cent lower long-term, and just over one-per cent lower in the U.S.

The Scotiabank report says the economic harm from the tariffs can be reduced on both sides of the Canada-U.S. border if Canada and Mexico negotiate an exemption with the U.S. under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) during the Trump administration.

Scotiabank predicts in that scenario, Canada’s GDP would only fall by 1.4 per cent in the short term — half the drop forecast without an exemption — and 0.3 per cent in the long term, while U.S. GDP would fall 1.7 per cent and 1.2 per cent, respectively.

Perrault says he’s “hopeful” such a carve-out could be negotiated, even though Trump would likely insist on further concessions that benefit U.S. trade. That “bigger stick” approach could be somewhat limited compared to the contentious CUSMA negotiations, however.

“Trump owns CUSMA, so he wouldn’t be in as much of a position to throw it away,” he said. “So maybe we get a little bit of a break.”


Click to play video: 'Trudeau says Canada to remain the same as previous Trump term in office, should former president return in 2024'

1:59
Trudeau says Canada to remain the same as previous Trump term in office, should former president return in 2024


The report also examines the impact of Trump’s repeated vow to mass deport roughly 10 million undocumented immigrants living illegally in the U.S., which Perrault admits would be “politically and logistically infeasible.” It would also be economically harmful, the analysis found, permanently reducing both U.S. employment and GDP by three per cent, though the impact on Canada would be negligible.

The analysis says Canada and the U.S. could see additional economic impacts due to a number of scenarios it didn’t explore, including China retaliating to tariffs by unloading its U.S. Treasury holdings; further debt ceiling and budgetary crises in the U.S.; Trump’s appeasement of aggressive foreign adversaries like Russia and China; and domestic civil disorder regardless of who wins the U.S. elections.

Perrault said the findings also underscore the key difference between Trump and Biden as Canadian trade partners.

“Biden seems to view negotiations from a collaborative approach: how can everyone come away with a win?” he said. “Trump doesn’t see it that way. He’s very much in the mindset of, ‘How will this benefit me?’”

More on Money

&copy 2024 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

Adblock test (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

'We need a miracle' – Israeli and Palestinian economies battered by war – BBC.com

Published

 on


Jerusalem streets
Jerusalem’s Old City should be teeming with visitors at this time of the year

More than six months into the devastating Gaza war, its impact on the Israeli and Palestinian economies has been huge.

Nearly all economic activity in Gaza has been wiped out and the World Bank says the war has also hit Palestinian businesses in the occupied West Bank hard.

As Israelis mark the Jewish festival of Passover, the much-vaunted “start-up nation” is also trying to remain an attractive proposition for investors.

300x250x1

The cobbled streets of Jerusalem’s Old City are eerily quiet. There are none of the long queues to visit the holy sites – at least those that remain open.

Just after Easter and Ramadan and right in the middle of Passover, all four quarters of the Old City should be teeming with visitors.

Just 68,000 tourists arrived in Israel in February, according to the country’s Central Bureau of Statistics. That’s down massively from 319,100 visitors in the same month last year.

While it may be surprising that any visitors pass through Jerusalem at a time of such tension, many of those who do are religious pilgrims from across the globe who will have paid for their journeys well in advance.

Zak’s Jerusalem Gifts was one of only a handful of stores on Christian Quarter Street in the Old City, which is situated in occupied East Jerusalem, to have bothered opening up on the day I passed by.

“We’re only really doing online sales,” says Zak, whose business specialises in antiques and biblical coins.

“There are no actual people. The last week, after the Iran-Israel escalation, business dropped down again. So we are just hoping that after the holidays some big major miracle will happen.”

It’s not just in Jerusalem’s Old City that they need a miracle.

Some 250km (150 miles) further north, on Israel’s volatile border with Lebanon, almost daily exchanges of fire with Hezbollah since the war in Gaza began have forced the Israeli army to close much of the area and 80,000 residents have been evacuated further south. A similar number of Lebanese have been forced to leave their homes on the other side of the border.

Agriculture in this part of Israel is another economic sector that has been hit hard.

Ofer “Poshko” Moskovitz isn’t really permitted to enter his avocado orchard in the kibbutz of Misgav Am because of its proximity to the border. But he occasionally ventures in anyway, walking wistfully among the trees, to gaze at all of his “money falling on the ground”.

“I must go to pick in the orchard because it’s very important for the next season,” Poshko says. “If I don’t pick this fruit, the next season will be a very poor one.”

He says he is losing a lot of money because he can’t pick the avocados – around 2m shekels ($530,000; £430,000) this season, he says.

An Israeli avocado picker
Israeli agriculture is another part of the economy hit hard by the war

Although they provide a living for thousands of people, agriculture and tourism account for relatively small parts of both the Israeli or Palestinian economies.

So what does the wider picture show?

Last week ratings agency S&P Global cut Israel’s long-term ratings (to A-plus from AA-minus) reflecting a loss of market confidence after increased tensions between Israel and Iran and concerns the war in Gaza could spread across the wider Middle East.

That loss of confidence was also reflected in falling Israeli GDP – the total value of goods and services produced in the economy – which decreased by 5.7% in the last quarter of 2023. Many Israelis though say the country’s renowned high-tech and start-up sector is proving to be more “war-proof” than expected.

The coastal city of Tel Aviv is only 54km from Jerusalem. More pertinently, perhaps, it’s less than 70km from Gaza.

At times, you’d be forgiven for forgetting – however momentarily – that Israel is embroiled in its longest war since independence in 1948.

people enjoy the beach in tel aviv, 23 april
People in Tel Aviv enjoying the beach

Families make the most of the early summer sun to play in the surf, couples eat lunch in the many open-air beach restaurants and young people strum away on guitars on the green spaces between the coastal road and the Mediterranean.

The backdrop is a city that is economically active and physically growing fast.

“They joke that Israel’s national bird should be the crane – the mechanical kind!” says Jon Medved, founder and CEO of the online global venture investment platform Our Crowd.

An engaging character with an overwhelmingly upbeat view of his world, Medved tells me that, “in the first quarter of this year, almost $2bn was invested in Israeli start-ups… We’re having one of the best years we’ve ever had. People who are engaged with Israel are not disengaging.”

Medved insists that, despite everything, Israel is still the “start-up nation” and a good option for would-be investors.

“There are 400 multinational corporations that have operations here. Not a single multinational, has closed its operation in Israel since the war.”

To an extent, Elise Brezis agrees with Mr Medved’s assessment.

The economics professor at Bar-Ilan University near Tel Aviv acknowledges that despite the last quarter’s GDP figures, Israel’s economy remains “remarkably resilient”.

“When it comes to tourism, yes, we have a reduction in exports. But we had also reduction in imports,” says Brezis. “So in fact, the balance of payments is still okay. That’s what is so problematic is that from the data, you don’t really feel that there is such a terrible situation in Israel.”

But Prof Brezis detects a wider malaise in Israeli society that isn’t reflected in economic data.

“Israel’s economy might be robust, but Israeli society is not robust right now. It’s like looking at a person and saying, ‘Wow, his salary is high,’ […] but in fact he’s depressed. And he’s thinking, ‘What will I do with my life?’ – That’s exactly Israel today.”

If the outlook in Israel is mixed, then across the separation barrier that divides Jerusalem and Bethlehem the view from the Palestinian side is overwhelmingly bleak.

deserted area outside church of nativity, bethlehem, 11 oct 2023
Tourism to the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem “stopped immediately” after Hamas attacked Israel last October

Tourism is especially important to the economies of towns like Bethlehem in the occupied West Bank.

While some people are still heading to Jerusalem’s sites, in the place where Christians believe Jesus was born tourism “stopped immediately” after 7 October last year, says Dr Samir Hazboun, chairman of Bethlehem’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

That’s when Hamas attacked Israeli communities near Gaza, killing about 1,200 people, mainly civilians, taking about 250 hostages and sparking the current war.

There’s huge dependence and reliance on Israel’s economy here – but Israel virtually closed off the landlocked West Bank after 7 October and this has had a disastrous impact on the life and work of many Palestinians, Dr Hazboun says.

“The Bethlehem governorate right now is closed,” he says. “There are around 43 gates [in the Israeli security barrier] but only three are open. So with between 16,000 and 20,000 Palestinian workers from our area working in Israel, immediately, they lost their income.”

The chamber of commerce says that the revenues from local Palestinians working in Israel amounted to 22bn shekels ($5.8bn) annually.

“You can imagine the impact on the economy,” says Dr Hazboun, who is particularly concerned for the prospects for younger Palestinians the longer the war continues and more the Israeli and West Bank economies decouple.

“The younger generation now are jobless, they are not working. Many of them are talented people,” he laments.

“In June I’m expecting around 30,000 new graduates from the Palestinian universities. What they will do?

In Gaza itself the economy has been completely destroyed by six months of war. Israel’s relentless aerial bombardment and ground operations have killed 34,183 people, mostly women and children, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.

Unlike in some parts of Israel, where there is optimism around being able to ride out the storm and continue attracting investors, in the West Bank and Gaza there is little hope things will return to any kind of normal.

Adblock test (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

China Wants Everyone to Trade In Their Old Cars, Fridges to Help Save Its Economy

Published

 on

China’s world-beating electric vehicle industry, at the heart of growing trade tensions with the US and Europe, is set to receive a big boost from the government’s latest effort to accelerate growth.

That’s one takeaway from what Beijing has revealed about its plan for incentives that will encourage Chinese businesses and households to adopt cleaner technologies. It’s widely expected to be one of this year’s main stimulus programs, though question-marks remain — including how much the government will spend.

Adblock test (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

300x250x1
Continue Reading

Trending