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Economy

Our economy is in crisis. Only one of the candidates realizes it. – The Washington Post

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But before we get to President Trump and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, here’s some of what’s happening right now:

  • At the end of this month, the enhanced unemployment insurance that provides unemployed workers with an extra $600 per week will expire, sending tens of millions of families from a position of stability into financial stress or outright crisis.
  • According to a recent study, at least 5.4 million Americans have lost their health insurance during the pandemic and economic collapse.
  • While the Paycheck Protection Program has helped many small businesses survive the crisis, it hasn’t been nearly enough. Tens of thousands of small businesses have already shut their doors permanently; by the time this recession is over, that number could be in the hundreds of thousands. The PPP is set to expire in August.
  • We’re on the cusp of a housing cataclysm: As many as 23 million families, or one in five households that rent their home, could face eviction by this fall.
  • State and local budgets continue their free fall, causing massive layoffs and cutbacks in services, while the Republican leadership in Congress refuses to provide the aid they need.

In the fantasy world Trump inhabits, the economy can simply be switched back on; convince everyone that things are fine and they’ll all return to work and boundless prosperity will ensue. But it’s now clear that the economy will likely take years to recover from the damage it has already sustained and continues to sustain.

Worst of all, the president has rejected this fundamental truth: We can’t recover economically until we contain the pandemic. Instead, he has decided to simply give up on controlling the pandemic and let it run rampant, and insist that if he does some cheerleading for the economy, we will magically recover.

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So when you ask the White House for its economic plan, it becomes obvious it has no plan at all. The administration is signaling that while it despises the generosity of the $600 supplemental UI, it might be open to some smaller payments of as-yet-undetermined size. The White House has, however, floated the idea of a “capital gains tax holiday,” a giveaway to rich investors. That’s its answer.

There is one other idea coming out of the Trump administration. Ivanka Trump debuted an ad campaign on Tuesday called “Find Something New,” in which people whose livelihoods have disappeared are urged to expand their horizons and explore new career opportunities. The company you worked at for 10 years went bankrupt? The restaurant your family owned for generations went out of business? Why not start a fashion line, or become a motivational speaker? Or have your dad give you a job in his White House?

So that’s what Trump is offering. What about Biden?

On Tuesday, the presumptive Democratic nominee released a new infrastructure plan whose goal is “creating the jobs we need to build a modern, sustainable infrastructure now and deliver an equitable clean energy future.”

In many ways, it resembles other infrastructure plans Democrats have put forth: roads, bridges, transit, water systems, clean energy, broadband, upgrading buildings for energy efficiency, and so on. He proposes to spend $2 trillion over four years to achieve these goals, and in the process promote union jobs and environmental justice.

The most striking contrast between the approaches Biden and Trump take isn’t only that Biden wants to do a lot and Trump wants to do very little. It’s also that the steps Biden proposes are quite purposefully meant to create permanent effects: not just a temporary infusion of cash or a tax break, but the building of tangible systems and resources that could continue to yield benefits even after the next Republican president takes office.

He has other plans, too; his campaign calls them “Build Back Better.” While he may not want to reorient fundamental power relations in the same way that Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren proposed in their presidential campaigns, it’s no longer possible to say that Biden isn’t being ambitious.

If Biden does win, he’ll take office with the economy not only still in crisis, but also facing profound long-term difficulties. Even if you don’t support the specifics of what he proposes, or think he’s missing other steps that ought to be taken, at least he seems to understand the gravity of the problem.

And Trump? As The Post’s Carol Leonnig reports, “the president seemingly has no interest in or patience for what he considers the boring work of governing, several of his former senior advisers say.” It’s becoming all too clear.

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Economy

China Wants Everyone to Trade In Their Old Cars, Fridges to Help Save Its Economy

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China’s world-beating electric vehicle industry, at the heart of growing trade tensions with the US and Europe, is set to receive a big boost from the government’s latest effort to accelerate growth.

That’s one takeaway from what Beijing has revealed about its plan for incentives that will encourage Chinese businesses and households to adopt cleaner technologies. It’s widely expected to be one of this year’s main stimulus programs, though question-marks remain — including how much the government will spend.

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Economy

German Business Outlook Hits One-Year High as Economy Heals

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German business sentiment improved to its highest level in a year — reinforcing recent signs that Europe’s largest economy is exiting two years of struggles.

An expectations gauge by the Ifo institute rose to 89.9. in April from a revised 87.7 the previous month. That exceeds the 88.9 median forecast in a Bloomberg survey. A measure of current conditions also advanced.

“Sentiment has improved at companies in Germany,” Ifo President Clemens Fuest said. “Companies were more satisfied with their current business. Their expectations also brightened. The economy is stabilizing, especially thanks to service providers.”

A stronger global economy and the prospect of looser monetary policy in the euro zone are helping drag Germany out of the malaise that set in following Russia’s attack on Ukraine. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said last week that the country may have “turned the corner,” while Chancellor Olaf Scholz has also expressed optimism, citing record employment and retreating inflation.

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There’s been a particular shift in the data in recent weeks, with the Bundesbank now estimating that output rose in the first quarter, having only a month ago foreseen a contraction that would have ushered in a first recession since the pandemic.

Even so, the start of the year “didn’t go great,” according to Fuest.

“What we’re seeing at the moment confirms the forecasts, which are saying that growth will be weak in Germany, but at least it won’t be negative,” he told Bloomberg Television. “So this is the stabilization we expected. It’s not a complete recovery. But at least it’s a start.”

Monthly purchasing managers’ surveys for April brought more cheer this week as Germany returned to expansion for the first time since June 2023. Weak spots remain, however — notably in industry, which is still mired in a slump that’s being offset by a surge in services activity.

“We see an improving worldwide economy,” Fuest said. “But this doesn’t seem to reach German manufacturing, which is puzzling in a way.”

Germany, which was the only Group of Seven economy to shrink last year and has been weighing on the wider region, helped private-sector output in the 20-nation euro area strengthen this month, S&P Global said.

–With assistance from Joel Rinneby, Kristian Siedenburg and Francine Lacqua.

(Updates with more comments from Fuest starting in sixth paragraph.)

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Economy

Parallel economy: How Russia is defying the West’s boycott

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When Moscow resident Zoya, 62, was planning a trip to Italy to visit her daughter last August, she saw the perfect opportunity to buy the Apple Watch she had long dreamed of owning.

Officially, Apple does not sell its products in Russia.

The California-based tech giant was one of the first companies to announce it would exit the country in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

But the week before her trip, Zoya made a surprise discovery while browsing Yandex.Market, one of several Russian answers to Amazon, where she regularly shops.

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Not only was the Apple Watch available for sale on the website, it was cheaper than in Italy.

Zoya bought the watch without a moment’s delay.

The serial code on the watch that was delivered to her home confirmed that it was manufactured by Apple in 2022 and intended for sale in the United States.

“In the store, they explained to me that these are genuine Apple products entering Russia through parallel imports,” Zoya, who asked to be only referred to by her first name, told Al Jazeera.

“I thought it was much easier to buy online than searching for a store in an unfamiliar country.”

Nearly 1,400 companies, including many of the most internationally recognisable brands, have since February 2022 announced that they would cease or dial back their operations in Russia in protest of Moscow’s military aggression against Ukraine.

But two years after the invasion, many of these companies’ products are still widely sold in Russia, in many cases in violation of Western-led sanctions, a months-long investigation by Al Jazeera has found.

Aided by the Russian government’s legalisation of parallel imports, Russian businesses have established a network of alternative supply chains to import restricted goods through third countries.

The companies that make the products have been either unwilling or unable to clamp down on these unofficial distribution networks.

 

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