The numbers and the anecdotal evidence are clear: while Metro Vancouver’s housing market has been on a surprising tear during the COVID-19 pandemic, the market for foreign buyers looking to enter the Lower Mainland has not followed suit.
But while local real estate industry representatives and urban development analysts agree that COVID travel restrictions have limited international interest in Vancouver-area homes, they disagree on whether the foreign-buyers market faces a longer-term correction.
According to municipal residential real estate data, there were five months out of 12 in 2019 in which there were more than 30 foreign-involved transactions that triggered the 20% provincial foreign-buyers tax in Vancouver.
Since March 2020, that monthly number of transactions has not surpassed 15 – and failed to break single digits for six of 2020’s last 10 months.
“Who really wants to move globally in the middle of a pandemic?” said Andy Yan, director of the City Program at Simon Fraser University and one of the city’s leading urban-planning researchers. “In March 2020, we had 24 foreign-involved transactions in the city of Vancouver. The next month, we went down to six.”
Mike Stewart, who works with corporate rentals for out-of-town executives, said the pandemic “has really put the crimp on corporate rentals, because people are not travelling.”
Brian Higgins, founder of YVR4Sale, which has clients from the U.S., Europe and Asia, agreed that the real estate market boom is driven locally. But Higgins said foreign-buyer activity in Vancouver has lagged behind as far back as 2016, when former premier Christy Clark introduced the 20% foreign buyers tax on any such purchases.
Higgins added that Vancouver’s empty home tax and the additional speculation tax implemented under the John Horgan BC NDP government also “scared a lot of people onto the sidelines.”
Yan, however, noted that even as the number of transactions fluctuated in the market since 2016, their overall value has stayed relatively stable in the $20 million-to-$60 million range every month. That indicates that the taxes have not dramatically shrunk the total dollar value of transactions – just the number of buyers who can afford the extra 20%.
“You have to remember, the nature of the foreign buyers tax wasn’t to prevent more buying,” Yan said. “It was just to capture value for the B.C. taxpayer. It’s essentially increasing the fee for [international buyers] to access the clubhouse. And you’ve also got to remember: It’s very specific to where and what. It’s a very particular type of property in specific regions that are moving up.”
He added that the B-20 mortgage rules introduced in 2018 that have been credited with spurring the current real estate boom have instead discouraged foreign buying, because the requirement for non-Canadians to get a mortgage makes the process more difficult.
What is also clear, observers say, is that international demand has not gone anywhere. Both Stewart and Higgins said they anticipate a surge in buying from abroad – mostly from Canadians living outside Canada in places like the United States, Hong Kong, Great Britain or Europe – as soon as vaccinations become widespread and travel restrictions are loosened.
Higgins said Ottawa’s plan to bring in as many as 400,000 immigrants annually in the next few years to boost the Canadian economy means the Metro Vancouver market will likely see another wave of cross-border buyers soon after the pandemic ends.
“If you are coming out of an unstable situation, people are willing to put a little more money into a more stable country. And Canada is a stable country … and Amazon [Nasdaq:AMZN] is coming in 2024. The tech coming out of that will be an immense economic boom for the city.”
But Yan urged caution. He noted that while the demand has not gone away abroad, how strong and consistent that foreign demand will be is hard to determine.
“Of course, the rest of the world has changed. Let’s face it, one of the main sources of growth had been coming in from China, and the Chinese rules – from the people I’ve talked to – have certainly tightened up. That brings a complication that we may not see the [previous high levels of] demand come back in.
“We don’t know what happens globally.… And a lot of things that drive foreign buyers happen outside of Canada. The world in 2021 is vastly different than what it was in 2016.” •
HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.
Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.
Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.
The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.
Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.
They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.
The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.
Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.
Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.
Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500
Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438
Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103
Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839
Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359
Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent
How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
VANCOUVER – Voters along the south coast of British Columbia who have not cast their ballots yet will have to contend with heavy rain and high winds from an incoming atmospheric river weather system on election day.
Environment Canada says the weather system will bring prolonged heavy rain to Metro Vancouver, the Sunshine Coast, Fraser Valley, Howe Sound, Whistler and Vancouver Island starting Friday.
The agency says strong winds with gusts up to 80 kilometres an hour will also develop on Saturday — the day thousands are expected to go to the polls across B.C. — in parts of Vancouver Island and Metro Vancouver.
Wednesday was the last day for advance voting, which started on Oct. 10.
More than 180,000 voters cast their votes Wednesday — the most ever on an advance voting day in B.C., beating the record set just days earlier on Oct. 10 of more than 170,000 votes.
Environment Canada says voters in the area of the atmospheric river can expect around 70 millimetres of precipitation generally and up to 100 millimetres along the coastal mountains, while parts of Vancouver Island could see as much as 200 millimetres of rainfall for the weekend.
An atmospheric river system in November 2021 created severe flooding and landslides that at one point severed most rail links between Vancouver’s port and the rest of Canada while inundating communities in the Fraser Valley and B.C. Interior.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.
