Pandemic fatigue, divisive politics pose likely hurdles to return to masking: experts | Canada News Media
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Pandemic fatigue, divisive politics pose likely hurdles to return to masking: experts

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A plea by health officials to resume masking in Ontario and Quebec is a tall order that is unlikely to take hold without a significant culture shift, say observers who point to pandemic fatigue, mixed messages and divisive politics as likely hurdles.

The fact that a renewed push for personal protective measures remains voluntary means many people will consider it optional, and possibly even unnecessary, says behaviour expert and York University associate professor Rebecca Bassett-Gunter.

She notes that many people abandoned masks altogether after most pandemic precautions were lifted earlier this year.

It’s not clear that weeks of warnings from overwhelmed hospital staff over the “triple threat” of viral infections is enough to get those same people to put their masks back on.

“Without mandating it, I think people are hearing a message that it must not be as bad as it was,” says Bassett-Gunter, whose research at the school of kinesiology and health science has included a look at how to get people to comply with COVID-19 precautions.

“That’s a really hard implicit message to override, unfortunately.”

Add in pandemic fatigue and a yearning for festive holiday gatherings to return after two seasons of restraint, and public health officials face a tough psychological wall to break through, adds Dr. Eddy Lang, professor and department head for emergency medicine at the Cumming School of Medicine at the University of Calgary.

While his province isn’t seeing a surge in respiratory syncytial virus and influenza cases to the same degree as Ontario and Quebec, he noted cases are expected to increase as cold and flu season progresses.

“When we look at the wastewater analysis, RSV is still on the rise, which suggests that the worst of it may still be yet to come,” Lang said.

Already, a wave of viral illnesses among young students has pushed hospital capacity to dangerous levels. But given Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s stated opposition to a school mask mandate, Lang doubts a masking plea is imminent or that there is much public support for more precautions.

“People are just so tired of public health directives,” says Lang.

“Until we really see a cultural shift … I don’t think this is going to work particularly well or give us much of an impact against hospitalizations.”

Health authorities in Canada’s two most populous provinces issued strong recommendations on Monday for people to mask up indoors to mitigate the spread of respiratory viruses that have overwhelmed hospitals and pediatric centres.

Ontario’s chief medical officer of health, Dr. Kieran Moore, stressed the vulnerability of babies and children younger than five to unseasonably high rates of RSV and rising rates of influenza. At the same time, he warned of emerging COVID-19 variants.

Quebec’s college of physicians made a similar appeal that the public don masks on a “voluntary and preventive basis” in public places, crowded private spaces and on public transit.

Last week, Canada’s top doctor stressed the need for “stepped-up precautions” while warning that COVID-19, RSV and the flu were challenging the health system in several parts of the country.

Turney McKee of the Montreal-based consultancy group Decision Lab was skeptical that “a mere recommendation” would be enough to drive the adoption needed to mitigate public health risks.

“Sure, our attitudes or values may align with one course of action, but then when actually put in the situation to either comply or not to comply, I think it’s very likely that we see a disconnect,” says McKee.

He sees politics as less a driver than fatigue, convenience and social pressure.

“When the mandate is no longer there, if it is no longer convenient, we’re probably going to stop,” says McKee, whose firm uses applied behavioural science to guide advice for organizations and government clients.

“And when we see everyone else around us starting to stop, the social influence can be very potent.”

However, that’s not to say this public health plea is completely powerless.

It sends a clear signal that stronger measures could follow and that the public should brace for a potential mandate, says McKee.

“It primes people to expect that maybe some more heavy-handed measures are around the corner,” he says.

Moore said a mask mandate could be possible if Ontario’s health-care system continues to see an increase in pressure due to respiratory illnesses, though he said that would be “the furthest we’d have to go.”

Cassandra Szklarski/The Canadian Press

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Review finds no case for formal probe of Beijing’s activities under elections law

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OTTAWA – The federal agency that investigates election infractions found insufficient evidence to support suggestions Beijing wielded undue influence against the Conservatives in the Vancouver area during the 2021 general election.

The Commissioner of Canada Elections’ recently completed review of the lingering issue was tabled Tuesday at a federal inquiry into foreign interference.

The review focused on the unsuccessful campaign of Conservative candidate Kenny Chiu in the riding of Steveston-Richmond East and the party’s larger efforts in the Vancouver area.

It says the evidence uncovered did not trigger the threshold to initiate a formal investigation under the Canada Elections Act.

Investigators therefore recommended that the review be concluded.

A summary of the review results was shared with the Canadian Security Intelligence Service and the RCMP. The review says both agencies indicated the election commissioner’s findings were consistent with their own understanding of the situation.

During the exercise, the commissioner’s investigators met with Chinese Canadian residents of Chiu’s riding and surrounding ones.

They were told of an extensive network of Chinese Canadian associations, businesses and media organizations that offers the diaspora a lifestyle that mirrors that of China in many ways.

“Further, this diaspora has continuing and extensive commercial, social and familial relations with China,” the review says.

Some interviewees reported that this “has created aspects of a parallel society involving many Chinese Canadians in the Lower Mainland area, which includes concerted support, direction and control by individuals from or involved with China’s Vancouver consulate and the United Front Work Department (UFWD) in China.”

Investigators were also made aware of members of three Chinese Canadian associations, as well as others, who were alleged to have used their positions to influence the choice of Chinese Canadian voters during the 2021 election in a direction favourable to the interests of Beijing, the review says.

These efforts were sparked by elements of the Conservative party’s election platform and by actions and statements by Chiu “that were leveraged to bolster claims that both the platform and Chiu were anti-China and were encouraging anti-Chinese discrimination and racism.”

These messages were amplified through repetition in social media, chat groups and posts, as well as in Chinese in online, print and radio media throughout the Vancouver area.

Upon examination, the messages “were found to not be in contravention” of the Canada Elections Act, says the review, citing the Supreme Court of Canada’s position that the concept of uninhibited speech permeates all truly democratic societies and institutions.

The review says the effectiveness of the anti-Conservative, anti-Chiu campaigns was enhanced by circumstances “unique to the Chinese diaspora and the assertive nature of Chinese government interests.”

It notes the election was prefaced by statements from China’s ambassador to Canada and the Vancouver consul general as well as articles published or broadcast in Beijing-controlled Chinese Canadian media entities.

“According to Chinese Canadian interview subjects, this invoked a widespread fear amongst electors, described as a fear of retributive measures from Chinese authorities should a (Conservative) government be elected.”

This included the possibility that Chinese authorities could interfere with travel to and from China, as well as measures being taken against family members or business interests in China, the review says.

“Several Chinese Canadian interview subjects were of the view that Chinese authorities could exercise such retributive measures, and that this fear was most acute with Chinese Canadian electors from mainland China. One said ‘everybody understands’ the need to only say nice things about China.”

However, no interview subject was willing to name electors who were directly affected by the anti-Tory campaign, nor community leaders who claimed to speak on a voter’s behalf.

Several weeks of public inquiry hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign meddling.

In other testimony Tuesday, Conservative MP Garnett Genuis told the inquiry that parliamentarians who were targeted by Chinese hackers could have taken immediate protective steps if they had been informed sooner.

It emerged earlier this year that in 2021 some MPs and senators faced cyberattacks from the hackers because of their involvement with the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, which pushes for accountability from Beijing.

In 2022, U.S. authorities apparently informed the Canadian government of the attacks, and it in turn advised parliamentary IT officials — but not individual MPs.

Genuis, a Canadian co-chair of the inter-parliamentary alliance, told the inquiry Tuesday that it remains mysterious to him why he wasn’t informed about the attacks sooner.

Liberal MP John McKay, also a Canadian co-chair of the alliance, said there should be a clear protocol for advising parliamentarians of cyberthreats.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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NDP beat Conservatives in federal byelection in Winnipeg

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WINNIPEG – The federal New Democrats have kept a longtime stronghold in the Elmwood-Transcona riding in Winnipeg.

The NDP’s Leila Dance won a close battle over Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds, and says the community has spoken in favour of priorities such as health care and the cost of living.

Elmwood-Transcona has elected a New Democrat in every election except one since the riding was formed in 1988.

The seat became open after three-term member of Parliament Daniel Blaikie resigned in March to take a job with the Manitoba government.

A political analyst the NDP is likely relieved to have kept the seat in what has been one of their strongest urban areas.

Christopher Adams, an adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, says NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh worked hard to keep the seat in a tight race.

“He made a number of visits to Winnipeg, so if they had lost this riding it would have been disastrous for the NDP,” Adams said.

The strong Conservative showing should put wind in that party’s sails, Adams added, as their percentage of the popular vote in Elmwood-Transcona jumped sharply from the 2021 election.

“Even though the Conservatives lost this (byelection), they should walk away from it feeling pretty good.”

Dance told reporters Monday night she wants to focus on issues such as the cost of living while working in Ottawa.

“We used to be able to buy a cart of groceries for a hundred dollars and now it’s two small bags. That is something that will affect everyone in this riding,” Dance said.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre placed a distant third,

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024

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Trudeau says ‘all sorts of reflections’ for Liberals after loss of second stronghold

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OTTAWA – Prime Minister Justin Trudeau say the Liberals have “all sorts of reflections” to make after losing a second stronghold in a byelection in Montreal Monday night.

His comments come as the Liberal cabinet gathers for its first regularly scheduled meeting of the fall sitting of Parliament, which began Monday.

Trudeau’s Liberals were hopeful they could retain the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun, but those hopes were dashed after the Bloc Québécois won it in an extremely tight three-way race with the NDP.

Louis-Philippe Sauvé, an administrator at the Institute for Research in Contemporary Economics, beat Liberal candidate Laura Palestini by less than 250 votes. The NDP finished about 600 votes back of the winner.

It is the second time in three months that Trudeau’s party lost a stronghold in a byelection. In June, the Conservatives defeated the Liberals narrowly in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

The Liberals won every seat in Toronto and almost every seat on the Island of Montreal in the last election, and losing a seat in both places has laid bare just how low the party has fallen in the polls.

“Obviously, it would have been nicer to be able to win and hold (the Montreal riding), but there’s more work to do and we’re going to stay focused on doing it,” Trudeau told reporters ahead of this morning’s cabinet meeting.

When asked what went wrong for his party, Trudeau responded “I think there’s all sorts of reflections to take on that.”

In French, he would not say if this result puts his leadership in question, instead saying his team has lots of work to do.

Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet will hold a press conference this morning, but has already said the results are significant for his party.

“The victory is historic and all of Quebec will speak with a stronger voice in Ottawa,” Blanchet wrote on X, shortly after the winner was declared.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and his party had hoped to ride to a win in Montreal on the popularity of their candidate, city councillor Craig Sauvé, and use it to further their goal of replacing the Liberals as the chief alternative to the Conservatives.

The NDP did hold on to a seat in Winnipeg in a tight race with the Conservatives, but the results in Elmwood-Transcona Monday were far tighter than in the last several elections. NDP candidate Leila Dance defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds by about 1,200 votes.

Singh called it a “big victory.”

“Our movement is growing — and we’re going to keep working for Canadians and building that movement to stop Conservative cuts before they start,” he said on social media.

“Big corporations have had their governments. It’s the people’s time.”

New Democrats recently pulled out of their political pact with the government in a bid to distance themselves from the Liberals, making the prospects of a snap election far more likely.

Trudeau attempted to calm his caucus at their fall retreat in Nanaimo, B.C, last week, and brought former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney on as an economic adviser in a bid to shore up some credibility with voters.

The latest byelection loss will put more pressure on him as leader, with many polls suggesting voter anger is more directed at Trudeau himself than at Liberal policies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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