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Paris police investigating match-fixing at French Open – CBC.ca

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The Paris prosecutor’s office has opened a police investigation into suspicions of match-fixing at the French Open.

The office said the investigation is being conducted by a French police unit that specializes in betting fraud and match-fixing probes and which, among other investigations, has previously worked with Belgian authorities in investigating suspected fixed matches at the lower levels of professional tennis.

But match-fixing probes targeting Grand Slam tennis are comparatively rare. The Paris prosecutor’s office said the investigation is centred on suspicions concerning one match at Roland Garros and also casting a broader look for any other evidence. It did not specify the match.

German newspaper Die Welt and French sports daily L’Equipe said there were suspicious betting patterns in the first round of a women’s doubles match on Sept. 30.

Played on Court No. 10 at Roland Garros, it opposed Romanian players Andreea Mitu and Patricia Maria Tig against Madison Brengle of the United States and Yana Sizikova of Russia.

Russia’s Yana Sizikova, below, is one of the players reported under suspicion.

In the match, Sizikova is broken to love serving in game five of the second set, during which she double faults twice.

According to Die Welt and L’Equipe’s reports, large sums were allegedly placed on the Romanians to win that fifth game across several operators in Paris and from different countries.

Die Welt cited unnamed insiders claiming several hundred thousand euros were bet on the game, and that the fifth game in the second was a focus of the betting — without saying specifically how much of the total betting was on that game.

The prosecutor’s office said probe was opened on Oct. 1, the day after.

The police are investigating possible charges of organized fraud and sporting corruption, it said.

The French tennis federation, which runs the French Open, referred all questions to the Tennis Integrity Unit, which oversees corruption investigations in the sport.

TIU spokesman Mark Harrison wrote in an email to the AP: “In line with the TIU policy of operational confidentiality, we are not able to comment on this matter.”

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Toronto Maple Leafs 2020 Offseason: Where have they improved, and where do the question marks remain? – Maple Leafs Hot Stove

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Entering the offseason, there were a number of needs that were easily identifiable from the outset for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

In August, we wrote:

“…improve the defense with legitimate defenders who can be trusted to handle tough minutes (at least one, ideally two), improve the bottom six, and add some center depth (not sure Alex Kerfoot – Pierre Engvall is the one-two punch you want on that side of the roster).”

To hash it out a little further, at least one top-four defenseman was needed as well as a depth blue liner so that Martin Marincin didn’t have to be the go-to guy after one injury in the top six. At forward, there was a need for additional center depth to challenge Alex Kerfoot, as well as a fourth-line option knowing Pierre Engvall projects more as a winger, where he can best utilize his speed.

We also discussed diversifying the forward group – yet again – as well as adding some checking forwards to help free up the Leafs’ skilled players to focus on offense, particularly in playoff matchups. More on this later.

We would be remiss if we didn’t touch on goaltending as well. There was heavy speculation about what the Leafs would do with Frederik Andersen, who is entering the final season of his contract and is coming off unquestionably his worst season with the Leafs. While the concerns about him are valid at this point, I noted at the time it was hard to envision a scenario playing out where the Leafs could make a series of moves that involved trading Andersen and acquiring a legitimately better goalie. Ultimately, the Leafs stuck with Andersen and added a quality third goalie in Aaron Dell to bolster their depth.

If we can learn anything from the current NFL COVID-19 season, it’s that players go down at random, and adding a third quality goaltender could become quite important.

As for the rest of the moves, here is the overall picture:

Out:

  • Kasperi Kapanen
  • Andreas Johnsson
  • Cody Ceci
  • Tyson Barrie
  • Frederik Gauthier

In:

  • TJ Brodie
  • Joe Thornton
  • Wayne Simmonds
  • Zach Bogosian
  • Joey Anderson
  • Travis Boyd
  • Jimmy Vesey

The blue line: Logical additions, clear fits


Dec 29, 2019; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Calgary Flames defenseman TJ Brodie (7) against the Vancouver Canucks during the second period at Scotiabank Saddledome. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports

On defense, the team did about as well as could have been expected. We covered before free agency why paying big for Alex Pietrangelo would have been questionable, and Pietrangelo signed a contract in Vegas that affirmed that.

The only top-four defenseman acquisition that leaves you wanting is Nate Schmidt for a third-round pick to Vancouver, but nobody could have predicted the market softening to that extent. The Leafs certainly could not risk waiting around and praying for a shoe like this to drop.

You could quibble on the cost of Trevor van Riemsdyk and even Ryan Murray (very good when he’s playing, but can’t count on him to actually stay healthy). That’s about it, though.

Their moves on defense make complete sense and the fits are clear. Last offseason, we wondered about the Tyson Barrie fit and even speculated that he could become a sheltered power-play QB. The Brodie fit, on the other hand, makes sense on paper. He has generally played tough minutes and plays on the right side. The Leafs have a need on right defense and for a defender who can play tough minutes. He also offers potential second-unit power-play potential and is good in transition.

There is some risk that’s worth pointing out with Brodie, too. His time on ice per game last year was his lowest since the 2012-13 season, as was his shots per game output, and his points per game was his lowest since the 2013-14 season. He and Mark Giordano were straight-up bad in the playoffs this year. The final year — or even two — of that contract could prove to be an albatross. For now, it’s an upgrade to a unit that desperately needed it — a clear, logical addition.

Zach Bogosian as well as Mikko Lehtonen provide options (note: I’m not sure how Lehtonen will hold up without steady power-play time; 13 of his last 23 goals were on the power play, and I can’t see him walking into PP time here). Even including Martin Marincin, the Leafs have options in terms of the power play, penalty kill, and handedness.

Last season, the coaching staff was handcuffed when injuries struck, but now they have a number of pieces they can move in and out of the lineup. They don’t need to rush in or rely on Rasmus Sandin/Timothy Liljegren unless they force their way into the lineup. That is a desirable setup.

Overall, the Leafs did well here.

Forward: Intriguing additions, less clear fits


Joe Thornton, Toronto Maple Leafs
Photo: USA Today Sports

This is where it gets a little more interesting. You can’t question the names or veteran experience the Leafs are adding into the dressing room. Last offseason, the Leafs said goodbye to some solid veterans — although you can obviously question their actual play — in Ron Hainsey, Patrick Marleau, Nazem Kadri, and even Tyler Ennis. Sheldon Keefe repeatedly called out the maturity of the team. All of this cannot be a coincidence.

It’s not an indictment of the veterans from last season, either. You can’t expect a few players to carry the room off the ice. It takes a solid group, and the Leafs didn’t have it.

In terms of on-ice play, though, the conversation is a little more interesting.

Wayne Simmonds hasn’t been great the past few seasons. Last season, he scored three goals at even strength and his goals per game dropped to the two lowest mark since the 2010-11 season. His 5v5 play has never been a strength, and while I’m sure he could play on the top power-play unit, moving out any of Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, or William Nylander for Simmonds, at least to start, seems questionable at best. If Keefe continues to overload his top unit with full two-minute power plays, how much value is Simmonds going to bring playing almost purely at 5v5?

Jimmy Vesey is coming off a season with a career-low goals per game, points per game, and a career-high PDO. He has never had a positive shot share relative to his teammates (this past season was his highest, and it was an even 0.0). He is 27, so the potential to improve drastically is low at this point.

Vesey also has a 16-goal season and two 17-goal years. He can chip in offensively, and he has started to feature on the PK in the past two seasons. However, in New York, he was considered a net negative player. In Buffalo, they were wondering if he was the least effective forward on the team at 5v5.

Joe Thornton is just an overall win at the $700k price. It can’t possibly be a loss at the minimum. The fit will be interesting, though. He was still a solid 3C last season and he did play on a terrible team. With Thornton more than anyone else, you can imagine a boost just by virtue of him playing on a better team. His points per game dropped to his lowest since his sophomore season, but it was still a respectable .44.

Thornton’s ice time, as Kyle Dubas noted, has now settled into that 15-minute range. It’s impossible not to note that he’s turning 42 next July, and his skating could be a concern. But when he gets the puck down low, Thornton is still a mountain to move (his possession numbers were still good), and I think you can envision a scenario where he moves up the lineup and plays on the left wing.

I’ve already talked about Travis Boyd, so I won’t get into much more here. He’s a depth option that could provide some scoring, in theory. Joey Anderson is intriguing; he is at an age and games played total where he still has potential, and he understands his role based on his comments regarding Zach Hyman. He could hypothetically give the team a much-needed different look in the bottom six. I think he could become sneaky important for the Leafs given the potential element he could add.

You can look at the additions and fairly argue that for next season and onwards, Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen will be the two best players among that group. At the same time, the Leafs needed to clear cap space and they clearly did not want to touch their core. If the team comes up short again in the playoffs, the pressure to do so will only increase.

Looking at this “new” group and trying to form the lines becomes particularly challenging. It’s fair to suggest Kerfoot moves back to the wing and Thornton plays 3C – he has been steady there, and if they lower the ice time to 14 minutes or so per game, he should be able to handle it. If the right-wing options are Jason Spezza, Wayne Simmonds, and perhaps Alexander Barbanov (if he is a pleasant surprise, which would be huge), that line will likely need to be sheltered with a heavy dose of offensive zone starts.

Nicholas Robertson is a big wildcard, but any emergence from him would be a bit of a game-changer, potentially allowing them to push Ilya Mikheyev down the lineup, too.

The fourth line is a question mark at this point. Pierre Engvall? Jimmy Vesey? Joey Anderson? No matter how you configure it, it would be hard to trust such a line with anything more than chipping in the odd goal. There isn’t much potential among this group for a checking line unless there are some surprises.

We’ve seen some top players come up huge against the Leafs in recent playoff matchups. David Pastrnak posted a 13-point series against them a few seasons ago. Brad Marchand tallied nine points last season. While Columbus didn’t have anyone put up a monster series offensively, Pierre Luc Dubois scored the big hat trick to put Columbus up 2-1, and his linemate Cam Atkinson recorded five points in the five-game series.

The options to game plan this are plenty:

  • They could go head to head with their star players and attempt to win the matchup straight up (the Kings used to do this with a prime Anze Kopitar; the Wings did, too, with Pavel Datsyuk).
  • They could split the matchup by rotating in a decent checking line with the top line to take the matchup (the Bruins do this).
  • They could create a true checking line to take on the matchup almost exclusively (the Cup-winning Ducks did this, as well as Pittsburgh with Jordan Staal).
  • They could hedge their top line against the other team’s top line, expecting a draw and relying on the team’s depth to outscore the opposition’s (Pittsburgh with Phil Kessel is an example).

Right now, the Leafs can only really use Matthews head to head in these matchups. John Tavares can take those shifts, too, but he hasn’t been at his best in those scenarios unless the Leafs pair him with Zach Hyman and Mitch Marner to do it. You’re not trusting Joe Thornton at 42 or Pierre Engvall at any age to take shifts against Brayden Point or Patrice Bergeron.

This dilemma also isn’t the end of the world at this time. Tampa Bay made huge changes at the deadline that helped them win the Cup. Players emerge throughout the season. The Leafs are also looking to set themselves up to accrue cap space for once instead of extending themselves deep into LTIR. In the meantime, they’ve added a collection of veterans and leaders who can chip in, and we’ll see if they can help bring along some of the younger players around them at the same time.

The Leafs have done well to add low-risk players and contracts, but I also won’t sit here and say they perfectly filled their needs, either. In a perfect world, I’d still argue the team needs a real 3C (the Mikko Koivu contract and fit, in particular, is tough to ignore).

By my count, there are at least nine players who can viably compete for a bottom-six role. The beginning of the season will be a trial-and-error experiment for the team to evaluate. At some point around the deadline, Kyle Dubas will likely have to look to add to (and subtract from) the group. That is not a bad spot to be in, by any means.

Final Word

Ultimately, as we quibble about the bottom of the roster, it is clear that the Leafs’ core is on notice. They’ve changed the supporting cast around them — quite drastically so — and there was hardly any noise about moving any of their top players to reshape their roster in any capacity.

The team can’t have another up-and-down season followed by a first-round exit. I’d expect next offseason to be much more dramatic if it plays out that way again.

In the meantime, kudos to Leafs management for trying to mix it up — not only putting themselves in a position to succeed at the start of the season, but giving themselves the flexibility to make additions around the deadline, too.

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NLCS Takeaways: Dodgers prevail in Game 7 classic, earn World Series berth – Sportsnet.ca

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Sunday’s NLCS Game 7 between the Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers had multiple lead changes, a pinch-hit home run, a runner gunned out at the plate, a home run pulled back from over the wall, an unfathomable double play, an escape from a bases-loaded jam, a home run celebration injury, a home plate collision, and maybe a half-dozen other dramatic moments no one will even remember.

It was nothing less than a classic. A tense, thrilling, back-and-forth contest between two uber talented teams fighting for a World Series berth. A lot of Game 7’s don’t meet the expectations placed upon them coming in. This one exceeded them.

In the end, the Dodgers prevailed, 4-3. They will take 48 hours to catch their breath before playing the Tampa Bay Rays for the World Series starting Tuesday. After seven consecutive days of intense post-season baseball, an off-day has never been more welcome.

Let’s take a moment as well to look back at a wild night of baseball. Here are your takeaways from an epic Game 7.

Ben Nicholson-Smith is Sportsnet’s baseball editor. Arden Zwelling is a senior writer. Together, they bring you the most in-depth Blue Jays podcast in the league, covering off all the latest news with opinion and analysis, as well as interviews with other insiders and team members.

The upside and downside of an opener

Let’s try to work somewhat chronologically before we get to the insane leverage moments that came late in this game. Because, remember, the first is a leverage inning, too.

The score’s tied, the top of the opposition order is up, and, in the 2019 season, it was MLB’s highest-scoring inning. That’s one of the reasons why you’re seeing more and more teams do what the Dodgers did Sunday, turning to a short-stint opener ahead of a more traditional starting pitcher in consequential games.

But good process doesn’t always lead to good results. Just as a high leverage reliever is liable to struggle with their command upon entering a game in late innings, an opener could take the mound in the first and do the same. That’s what happened to Dustin May.

The Dodgers right-hander began Game 7 throwing eight consecutive pitches outside the strike zone, walking the first two batters of the night. Two pitches later he left a breaking ball on the inner-half to Marcell Ozuna, who gladly ripped it to left to plate Atlanta’s first run.

That’s the downside of an opener. The upside is what May did next, quickly inducing a double play groundball with a well located cutter before blowing away Ozzie Albies with a 100-m.p.h. fastball to end the inning.

That right there is why May was on the mound. His stuff is electric and once he got it in the zone Braves hitters were completely overmatched. But leverage innings are leverage innings because there’s little margin for error. And that’s how the Dodgers found themselves facing a Game 7 deficit before their first plate appearance.

Not how they drew it up

As much as the Dodgers wanted a smooth first inning from May, they needed efficient outs from Tony Gonsolin, who was earmarked for around 12-15 of them as his club entered game 7 short on pitchers who could be trusted to throw a bulk of innings effectively. It’s another reason why it made sense to use him behind an opener, as it meant Gonsolin would begin his outing against the bottom of Atlanta’s lineup rather than the top, putting him in the best possible position to succeed.

But again — good process doesn’t always lead to good results. And to that end, here’s Gonsolin’s third pitch of the night:

Giving up a bomb to the No. 6 hitter certainly was not the design. Neither was walking the No. 9 hitter — Christian Pache — with two outs, extending an already stressful inning. Gonsolin ultimately got out of the second with only the one run in. But the bottom of the Braves lineup that he was strategically deployed against ended up forcing him to throw 22 pitches — a foreboding beginning to Gonsolin’s night considering how much length the Dodgers were hoping to get from him.

Speaking of foreboding, the Braves hit three fly balls with exit velocities of 90-, 97- and 100-m.p.h. in Gonsolin’s next inning. They all became outs, but the contact was awfully loud. And they’d end up being the final outs Gonsolin would record. He started the fourth with back-to-back walks before leaving this splitter up to Austin Riley:

Ironically, at 76-m.p.h., that was the softest contact Gonsolin allowed all night. But that actually ended up being a good thing for the Braves, as Riley’s looper landed in no-man’s land, and got there slowly enough to allow Ozzie Albies to motor home from second. Suddenly, Gonsolin’s night was done, and the Dodgers were facing another deficit.

An unforced error

The Braves were one swing from breaking the game wide open later in that fourth, with runners on second and third, none out, and a run already in. And they can only blame themselves for unfathomably running into a double play that decreased their win expectancy by 16.5 per cent:

Hello, disaster. Swanson running on contact in that situation at all is questionable, although the Dodgers were playing back and seemingly conceding a run. At least he was being aggressive. You can’t say the same for Riley, who was caught in no man’s land between second and third rather than taking either base to ensure the Braves would lose only one runner from scoring position. The right play was to advance to third while Swanson stalled in the rundown. But the least Riley could have done was retreat to second and take the safe way out.

Of course, that’s all easier said than done — especially in Game 7. Which is what makes Justin Turner’s instincts even more impressive. The veteran third baseman not only ran down Dansby Swanson and caught him on the heels, but had the presence of mind to pop up, his hat masking his vision, and rifle a perfect ball to third to nail Riley advancing.

It’s always tough to measure the impact of experience. But the decision-making in that spot from a 35-year-old Turner and a 23-year-old Riley paint a pretty telling picture.

For Anderson, not bad, but not good enough

In late August, Ian Anderson had yet to make his MLB debut. He’d pitched just five times above double-A. Only seven weeks and nine big-league starts later, the 22-year-old was jogging out to the mound to start Game 7 of the NLCS.

That, in and of itself, is an accomplishment. Anderson wasn’t taking the mound because the Braves were desperate or someone got hurt — he was given the assignment because he followed up six tremendous regular season outings with three scoreless ones in the playoffs. He’d been remarkable over 15.2 post-season innings, allowing only six hits — five of them singles — while striking out 22 and walking eight.

Still, this was easily the most consequential game of Anderson’s life. And an elite Dodgers lineup that had seen him only five days prior posed the biggest challenge he’d ever faced. Which helps explain why Anderson didn’t look too much like himself.

Not that he ever looked bothered. The low-emotion, low-pulse right-hander is a stoic presence on the mound in tough times and good. But the Dodgers were determined to make him work, forcing Anderson to throw 21 pitches in the first inning, 26 in the second, and 26 more in the third.

The rookie was able to dance between the rain drops through the first two innings, scattering some loud contact and several base runners to keep the Dodgers contained. But it caught up to him in that third, as Justin Turner walked, Max Muncy doubled, and Will Smith singled, driving in both to tie the game:

Anderson finished the inning, stranding a pair. But Braves manager Brian Snitker wasn’t messing around, opting not to let him return for the fourth.

It’s a learning experience for Anderson, to be certain. He could’ve located some curveballs better and his changeup landed up in the zone a little too often. But what did him in was the Dodgers’ approach. They refused to chase curveballs and changeups anywhere off the plate, forcing him into the zone with fastballs.

Biggest game of his life, biggest challenge of his life — and an outing Anderson’s likely going to be ruminating over for quite some time.

A great plate appearance in a huge spot

It’s tough to describe just how impressive Kike Hernadnez’s seventh inning plate appearance was.

He came off the bench cold, pinch-hitting against Braves reliever A.J. Minter, who was throwing 97-m.p.h. and pitched to a 0.83 ERA this season. He laid off a cutter that just missed the zone to get ahead in the count, and fought doggedly with two strikes, fouling off a fastball on the inside black, a cutter on the down-and-in corner, and a changeup on the down-and-away corner to keep his plate appearance alive.

And then, on the eighth pitch he saw, he did this:

Hernandez’s bomb was only the second pinch-hit homer hit in a Game 7. And you’ll rarely see a better plate appearance in a bigger spot.

A just as good plate appearance in a just as big spot

OK, but then there was Cody Bellinger’s in the seventh. Facing Braves right-hander Chris Martin, who was throwing in the mid-90’s and had struck out the first two batters of the inning with ease, Bellinger showed a magnificent approach, fouling off inside fastball after inside fastball.

Finally, on the eighth pitch of the plate appearance, Martin threw Bellinger a heater that didn’t get inside enough, sitting up on the plate for the Dodgers centre fielder to do this:

A home run so ridiculous that StatCast literally failed to measure it. Bat dropped, strutting out of the box, watching it fly for a dozen steps up the first base line. And the man blew up his shoulder celebrating it:

In a game of crazy moments, that was the craziest.

What a relief

Dave Roberts did not want to go to his bullpen as early as he did in this one. He was forced to ride his high leverage relievers just to get his team to this position after falling behind 3-1 in the series, and the bill was coming due. Blake Treinen, Pedro Baez, and Kenley Jansen had all pitched Games 5 and 6 — and none of them had appeared on three consecutive days this season.

But that changed in the fourth, when Roberts was forced to call on Treinen in relief of Gonsolin, trying to keep the game from spiralling out of control. And he got an absolute gift when the Braves ran into that unbelievable double play, providing two cheap outs and allowing Treinen to escape the inning on only 10 pitches.

That allowed him to return for the fifth, when fortune was on his side again as Mookie Betts went up to the top of the wall to rob a Freddie Freeman home run. After a nine-pitch inning, Treinen was back in the dugout having given his team more than they ever could’ve expected from him on his third consecutive day.

Brusdar Graterol took over in the sixth, threw his first pitch at 101-m.p.h., and didn’t look back, motoring through his three outs. He turned it over to Julio Urias, who absoutley going nine up, nine down over the final three innings.

Dave Roberts couldn’t have loved the state of his bullpen coming into Game 7. And he couldn’t have felt any better when May and Gonsolin got him only nine outs. But a little defence, a little gusto, and three relievers combining for six no-hit innings got his team to the finish line.

Odds and ends

• If baseball doesn’t work out (it will) Ronald Acuna Jr. could perhaps try high jump:

• Tyler Matzek gave Braves fans a scare while protecting a one-run lead in the fourth, loading the bases with two out thanks to a single and a couple walks.

But the Braves reliever executed some fantastic pitches against Max Muncy with nowhere to put him, leaning on his fastball for a couple called strikes on the outside black, before blowing a 97-m.p.h. heater — Matzek’s hardest of the night — past him to escape the jam:

• Mookie. Again.

What else is there to say? Mike Trout’s the best player in the game. But that guy right there’s the second-best and he’s worth every nickel the Dodgers pay him.

• NLCS MVP Corey Seager had a quiet Game 7 but a hell of a series, with five homers and 11 RBIs — both NLCS records. The all-time marks for both homers and RBIs in a single postseason series still belongs to Nelson Cruz, who homered 6 times and drove in 13 for the Texas Rangers in the 2011 ALCS.

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Kyle Dubas says he’s finished with the Maple Leafs roster moves – Pension Plan Puppets

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On the weekend, Kyle Dubas signed Joe Thornton and then met the media to say that he’s mostly done messing around with the roster. He’s not planning to sign anyone or trade away anyone just for cap space. An obvious caveat on that first part is that some more AHL players will be signed, and some of them might be on NHL contracts. But, we should expect the NHL roster to be chosen from the existing players on the team right now.

An even more obvious caveat on the entire concept is that training camp is months away and anything can happen.

Everyone Starts on the Team

A lot of things will happen before the next NHL season begins, but that does not mean everything will change. When NHL training camps begin, everyone on an NHL contract is on the NHL roster.

The only certain exception to that so far for the Leafs is Mikhail Abramov, who has already been loaned to junior since his season there has begun. It’s possible that Egor Korshkov’s loan to the KHL is for the full season, but Mikko Lehtonen’s is definitely not. Filip Hallander will also be available to the Maple Leafs at training camp, and they can keep him on the NHL roster if they want. If not, he can be returned to the SHL, but the deal made by Pittsburgh with Luleå says he can’t be loaned to the AHL instead.

Training camp is going to decide who is on the NHL roster for the season and who is not just like always. And as Dubas said very pointedly, no one on the Leafs had had the kind of success that says they can claim a given roster spot. He was speaking specifically about the defence, but it applies to some of the forwards as well.

The Salary Cap Has Been Uncrunched (Mostly)

With the moves that have been made, and an expectation that neither Travis Dermott or Ilya Mikheyev will be signed to very large deals, it is possible to make a variety of versions of a 21- or 22-man roster out of the players currently under contract without doing anything too outlandish — like moving anyone more highly paid than Pierre Engvall to the AHL.

One note to those using CapFriendly: their pages currently list projected or estimated regular-season roster. No one they are showing as in the AHL (like Engvall) are actually in the minors. No one is in the minors right now, see point one: Everyone starts on the NHL roster. Also, following on from that the “cap space” is a projection, teams are in offseason cap space now, which is calculated differently, and of which the Leafs have almost $4 million.

Waivers, Waivers, Waivers

No one understands waivers. I know this, you know this, and imaginary roster construction almost always fails at a waivers hurdle. Waivers are not a garbage disposal! Players are not put on waivers to be gotten rid of. Many players require waivers to be loaned to the AHL, and the overwhelming majority of players who are waived, clear. Every year, we think seven guys will be lost. And it doesn’t happen. You want to know why?

Because in order for some other team to want to claim a player off of waivers, they have to be planning to keep them in the NHL. So they have to have an NHL contract space and roster spot open for players the Leafs think of as surplus. This is why extra backup goalies and depth forwards sometimes get claimed, but in very small numbers.

The Leafs do have some players who potentially won’t clear, who they will obviously be sending through waivers to the AHL. Denis Malgin has extensive NHL experience and hasn’t been waived in some time. Aaron Dell is also in this class. Kenny Agostino is more of an AHLer you can call up, but you never know, someone might grab him.

None of that — not even Dell’s risk of waiver loss — should upset you. Losing Dmytro Timashov on waivers wasn’t a loss. Waiver exemption is usually not the primary reason roster choices get made, but it can factor in.

The following players are potential NHL-rostered Maple Leafs and are waiver exempt enough to be sent down on day one of the NHL season to make a cap-compliant 23-man or less Active Roster:

  • Nick Robertson
  • Pierre Engvall
  • Alexander Barabanov
  • Egor Korshkov
  • Joey Anderson
  • Mikko Lehtonen
  • Rasmus Sandin
  • Timothy Liljegren

There are many other regular AHL players also in this category. But to use the obvious example, Mikko Lehtonen is not going to be cut from the team to make the numbers work out, Rasmus Sandin is.

Papering Down and Banking Space

The term “papering down” refers to a paper-only transaction where a waiver-exempt player is sent to the AHL and then recalled again within a short period of time. This happens for three main reasons.

When a team needs to place a player on LTIR, it’s beneficial to have an Active Roster that comes as close to the salary cap upper limit as possible. Moving a few players around to achieve that is common.

When a team wishes to make players eligible for AHL playoffs they have to be on the AHL roster on the trade deadline day.

During the season, when a team operating without LTIR usage has a homestand or off days, they can paper down some players to get to the minimum roster size and then end up banking more cap space for use at the trade deadline. We should expect the Leafs to do this whenever possible, and Dubas mentioned this in his presser.

To accomplish that trick, you need to have waiver exempt players who don’t lose that exemption by playing in the NHL. Joey Anderson has more than a season of NHL games played before he loses his exemption. Pierre Engvall has 15. It isn’t fear of waivers at play here, it’s time. Papering someone down doesn’t work so well if you have to wait a day for them to clear. So for this reason, if Anderson makes the NHL roster, that’s a useful side benefit.

The bigger the cap hit of the player you can paper off the team, the better. Lehtonen and Barabanov are good choices with their max-ELC salaries of $925,000. Sometimes teams are reluctant to use higher-status players for this purpose. It’s like they think it looks bad or something, but I’m not sure the Leafs will care about that. Nick Robertson cannot be used in this way since he cannot play in the AHL.

Players who are not on an NHL Active Roster cannot practice with the NHL team, and while the Leafs and Marlies practice on connected icepads, they have been reasonably scrupulous about this in the past. You cannot just plunk your extra goalie in an NHL practice, for example. You have to call him up and have his salary count against the cap for that day.

What if There is No AHL?

That’s a very good question, one the new CBA Memo of Understanding does not address. There is an adjustment to waiver rules that makes an AHL season that starts before the NHL more plausible to arrange, but the opposite case isn’t spelled out.

This is just one of many things that the NHL and the NHLPA will have to sort out before play begins. But one thing that is not up to them is the rule that prevents Nick Robertson from playing in the AHL. That agreement is between the NHL and the Canadian Hockey League, and the CHL has no incentive to change it unless they believe it will be impossible to play any WHL, OHL and QMJHL seasons, and that seems so implausible as to not be considered.

The AHL, meanwhile, has not released a tentative start date publicly, but a host of NHL teams, including the Leafs, started signing AHL players all within days of each other, so it’s safe to say they believe an AHL season of some description will take place. Expect some clarity on those tentative plans soon, but there is one person you can assume has the inside scoop: Kyle Dubas.

How will things be handled if there’s a substantial time gap between the NHL season start and the AHL? No one knows that. So assuming one thing or another is correct is not how a good team manages the roster.

The Crowded Leafs

Ilya Mikheyev is expected to go through his arbitration hearing on Wednesday, and then by the end of this week, his salary will be known. With him on the roster, the Leafs have 14 regular NHL forwards plus newcomers Barabanov and Robertson, making 16 plausible choices.

With Travis Dermott signed, there are seven defenders who are expected to be in the NHL without counting Rasmus Sandin, so it seems like he’s got to be cut.

Dubas discussed the defence in some detail at the link above, and Mark Masters reminds us that Dubas previously said they expect Dermott to play the right side.

That makes this the general depth chart:

Morgan Rielly – TJ Brodie
Jake Muzzin – Justin Holl
Mikko Lehtonen – Zach Bogosian/Travis Dermott

The situation seems to be a fight to surpass Bogosian for Dermott and Holl, with a big question in my mind about Lehtonen and where he will really play. Many people believe he is a top-four defender, sight unseen. We will see. But if he can best Holl and Bogosian and Dermott while playing on his offside, that makes the question of how to sort out these seven defenders a little different to how it looks right now.

My take is this: The Maple Leafs would either need to regularly play 11F and 7D or else they’d have the best press-boxed defender in the NHL every night. They likely need Bogosian on the ice for PK duties most of the time, so I don’t expect him to sit out a lot.

It’s good to have depth and injuries happen, but that’s not an easy call to say who you cut off that roster each night.

The forward roster is something like this:

Zach Hyman – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner
William Nylander – John Tavares – Ilya Mikheyev
Jimmy Vesey – Alex Kerfoot – Wayne Simmonds
Nick Robertson – Joe Thornton – Jason Spezza
Travis Boyd

And a clever person should be able to add that up to 22 players, and if you keep the RFA signings reasonable, it fits under the cap. Do you want to put Pierre Engvall on this team? Go ahead, add him, send Robertson to the OHL, and the result is nearly the same total cap hit. That’s not a bad concept roster with the understanding that Robertson might get cut once there’s an OHL season underway. There is no reason to expect there won’t be an OHL season at some point. The WHL has a very good and sensible play to begin in January.

Move players around however you like them here, since it’s not clear who the sixth forward in the top-six will be or who will play on the third line. None of that is really the point.

Barabanov is the dark horse here on the forward side of the equation. If he makes a case for making the NHL roster — and I can’t see him playing in the AHL, so it’s NHL or gone — then he will force the team to move Robertson off, and to not play Engvall at all until there’s an injury. That also fits cap-wise.

One again, we’ve proven the Maple Leafs can add and subtract, but this feels too packed a roster to me, even if it’s possible to do it, even if there’s many advantages to it. There’s lost opportunities to convert players who aren’t getting in very many games or who have been cut to the AHL into some kind of return. There’s lost opportunities to play younger players like Malgin and Anderson. What is the point of Engvall in the AHL? But if they make the case for themselves that they should never be moved to the minors in camp, they likely won’t be, and other decisions will get made.

We can’t guess the winners and losers of this competition now, but it is really nice to finally see a tough decision on the depth.

I don’t believe this whole roster of players will see the start of the season, and it’s fairly unlikely they’ll all see the end of it. I think some one or two players will be moved later when the trade market heats up and the returns return to normal. It won’t be necessary to make cap space, but not every single player is going to feel like a fit for the team once they hit the ice.

Remember when the 4C was a sure bet in August because there were no other choices, and the idea of competition to get in the top four of the defence was laughable? Yeah, this is hard to complain about. I have faith that people will, though.

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