Perception Vs Reality in Politics (Part 1) – The Times of India Blog

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Love it or hate it, BJP is here to stay. Currently, it is the only political party that has the capacity to form a government on its own at the center. The next candidate, Congress, has a very disparaging record of winning only 44 seats in 2014 and 53 in 2019. In both cases, it was below the 10% mark required for its leader in the house to designated as Leader of Opposition (LOP).

The situation is unlikely to change drastically in 2024. BJP currently has 303 seats of its own and the number goes up to 353 with the support of its allies. Perhaps the only change that may occur in 2024 is that a few regional parties may win some more seats at the cost of BJP and Congress. In the worst-case BJP may not get a majority on its own. However, the odds remain in favour of NDA (BJP plus allies) forming a government in 2024. The opposition, fragmented as it is today, will continue to remain so. The likelihood of any single opposition party returning with sizeable numbers that gives it the leadership role and its leader the LOP status remain bleak.

Does the nation love BJP? A sizeable percentage of the voters in the nation love the party otherwise it would not have been in power. Majority of these voters belong to the northern, central, western, north-eastern regions. In South, BJP has a strong presence only in Karnataka. These voters appreciate and recognize the work done by the BJP government and support it unequivocally. They do not blame the government for the increased communal tensions. Instead, they think that the fears of the Muslim community are ill-founded and instilled in them by the opposition, community leaders and clerics as part of vote bank politics. They credit the government for not following minority appeasement policies that have been the bane of the nation for decades. They proudly support the government on issues like NRC, CAA, Articles 370 and 35A and its policies on Pakistan and China. They believe that BJP provides a strong government that wants to transform India into a powerful, developed and self-reliant nation.

Does a part of the nation hate BJP? There is a reasonable section of voters who hate the party. Over the last eight years, hating BJP has become a part of their DNA. So, irrespective of what the government does, they continue to hate it. This group comprises of three main sub-groups. On top of this list are opposition political parties, led by Congress, who had been making merry for decades after independence and are today struggling to remain relevant, particularly at national level. Next is the small group of leftists, left leaning intellectuals, socialists, dollar loving activists, pseudo seculars and liberals. They were the ‘think tanks’ for Congress and other governments in the past but find no credence with the government today. A large percentage of the 200 million strong Muslim community, who have lived and prospered with Hindus for generations, forms the last part of this group. They seem to have suddenly developed a fear of Hindus and Hinduism in the last few years. The only agenda that this hate group has is to remove Mr Modi and BJP from power but have no clue on how to do it. As a group they oppose NRC, CAA, abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A and government’s policies on Pakistan and China.

Lastly, there is a reasonable percentage, particularly among the young educated urban and semi urban voters, that has a love and hate relationship with BJP. Some of them vote for BJP, others do not. Many among them could easily switch their loyalties if another viable political option was available. They love the good work done by the government in different spheres but tend to take that for granted. They like the way the government stands up to China and Pakistan but are hesitant to support it. As a group they blame, perhaps hate, the government for increased communal tensions while overlooking the roles played by the opposition and the Muslim community itself. Many among them fall in the trap of hating BJP because it seems fashionable to do so. Majority of them are a self-centered lot who see CAA, NRC and abrogation of Articles 370 and 35 A as unnecessary impediments in their quest to get on with their higher education, jobs and life.

In Indian politics, more often than not the voter casts his vote for the party and not the candidate. For many the local candidate is an unknown commodity. The voter’s awareness is limited to a few senior and more visible leaders of the party. In most cases the parties announce their candidate for a constituency only a few weeks before the elections. At times some may even be outsiders. Thus, in most cases there is no time for the voter to know his candidate and vice versa. Therefore, it is the party and its top leadership that influence the voter’s choice. This in turn means that the perception of the party and its top leadership is of utmost importance. BJP’s last two wins at national level, as also in many states, were a result of this logic to a large extent. The success of Aam Admi Party in Delhi’s local elections is another case in point.

Unfortunately for the nation, Congress and other opposition parties do not enjoy this luxury, particularly at the national level. This has resulted in lack of a viable opposition that can challenge the BJP. An alternative comprising of a coalition of likeminded parties is always an option. However, for this to become a reality, the prime mover must be a party with a significant national footprint, a clear national vision, acceptable leadership and capacity to win at least 20-25% seats. This translates into at least 100 seats in Lok Sabha. Currently, this seems a tall order for even Congress party that has ruled the nation for over 60 years since independence. Any coalition of a dozen parties (and nearly half as many claimants for the chair of the Prime Minister) without one such prime mover can only be a recipe for disaster. Sadly, this is the harsh reality of Indian politics today.

In such a political environment, BJP must realise that at national level, it can play a long and uninterrupted innings if it plays its cards well. The most critical card is the perception card. It is time BJP does a serious reality check and works towards developing a more positive perception, particularly among those who want to believe in it but are hesitant to do so. Some of the key areas to address in this regard are discussed in succeeding paragraphs.

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