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Perception Vs Reality in Politics (Part 1) – The Times of India Blog

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Uday Deb
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Love it or hate it, BJP is here to stay. Currently, it is the only political party that has the capacity to form a government on its own at the center. The next candidate, Congress, has a very disparaging record of winning only 44 seats in 2014 and 53 in 2019. In both cases, it was below the 10% mark required for its leader in the house to designated as Leader of Opposition (LOP).

The situation is unlikely to change drastically in 2024. BJP currently has 303 seats of its own and the number goes up to 353 with the support of its allies. Perhaps the only change that may occur in 2024 is that a few regional parties may win some more seats at the cost of BJP and Congress. In the worst-case BJP may not get a majority on its own. However, the odds remain in favour of NDA (BJP plus allies) forming a government in 2024. The opposition, fragmented as it is today, will continue to remain so. The likelihood of any single opposition party returning with sizeable numbers that gives it the leadership role and its leader the LOP status remain bleak.

Does the nation love BJP? A sizeable percentage of the voters in the nation love the party otherwise it would not have been in power. Majority of these voters belong to the northern, central, western, north-eastern regions. In South, BJP has a strong presence only in Karnataka. These voters appreciate and recognize the work done by the BJP government and support it unequivocally. They do not blame the government for the increased communal tensions. Instead, they think that the fears of the Muslim community are ill-founded and instilled in them by the opposition, community leaders and clerics as part of vote bank politics. They credit the government for not following minority appeasement policies that have been the bane of the nation for decades. They proudly support the government on issues like NRC, CAA, Articles 370 and 35A and its policies on Pakistan and China. They believe that BJP provides a strong government that wants to transform India into a powerful, developed and self-reliant nation.

Does a part of the nation hate BJP? There is a reasonable section of voters who hate the party. Over the last eight years, hating BJP has become a part of their DNA. So, irrespective of what the government does, they continue to hate it. This group comprises of three main sub-groups. On top of this list are opposition political parties, led by Congress, who had been making merry for decades after independence and are today struggling to remain relevant, particularly at national level. Next is the small group of leftists, left leaning intellectuals, socialists, dollar loving activists, pseudo seculars and liberals. They were the ‘think tanks’ for Congress and other governments in the past but find no credence with the government today. A large percentage of the 200 million strong Muslim community, who have lived and prospered with Hindus for generations, forms the last part of this group. They seem to have suddenly developed a fear of Hindus and Hinduism in the last few years. The only agenda that this hate group has is to remove Mr Modi and BJP from power but have no clue on how to do it. As a group they oppose NRC, CAA, abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A and government’s policies on Pakistan and China.

Lastly, there is a reasonable percentage, particularly among the young educated urban and semi urban voters, that has a love and hate relationship with BJP. Some of them vote for BJP, others do not. Many among them could easily switch their loyalties if another viable political option was available. They love the good work done by the government in different spheres but tend to take that for granted. They like the way the government stands up to China and Pakistan but are hesitant to support it. As a group they blame, perhaps hate, the government for increased communal tensions while overlooking the roles played by the opposition and the Muslim community itself. Many among them fall in the trap of hating BJP because it seems fashionable to do so. Majority of them are a self-centered lot who see CAA, NRC and abrogation of Articles 370 and 35 A as unnecessary impediments in their quest to get on with their higher education, jobs and life.

In Indian politics, more often than not the voter casts his vote for the party and not the candidate. For many the local candidate is an unknown commodity. The voter’s awareness is limited to a few senior and more visible leaders of the party. In most cases the parties announce their candidate for a constituency only a few weeks before the elections. At times some may even be outsiders. Thus, in most cases there is no time for the voter to know his candidate and vice versa. Therefore, it is the party and its top leadership that influence the voter’s choice. This in turn means that the perception of the party and its top leadership is of utmost importance. BJP’s last two wins at national level, as also in many states, were a result of this logic to a large extent. The success of Aam Admi Party in Delhi’s local elections is another case in point.

Unfortunately for the nation, Congress and other opposition parties do not enjoy this luxury, particularly at the national level. This has resulted in lack of a viable opposition that can challenge the BJP. An alternative comprising of a coalition of likeminded parties is always an option. However, for this to become a reality, the prime mover must be a party with a significant national footprint, a clear national vision, acceptable leadership and capacity to win at least 20-25% seats. This translates into at least 100 seats in Lok Sabha. Currently, this seems a tall order for even Congress party that has ruled the nation for over 60 years since independence. Any coalition of a dozen parties (and nearly half as many claimants for the chair of the Prime Minister) without one such prime mover can only be a recipe for disaster. Sadly, this is the harsh reality of Indian politics today.

In such a political environment, BJP must realise that at national level, it can play a long and uninterrupted innings if it plays its cards well. The most critical card is the perception card. It is time BJP does a serious reality check and works towards developing a more positive perception, particularly among those who want to believe in it but are hesitant to do so. Some of the key areas to address in this regard are discussed in succeeding paragraphs.

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Views expressed above are the author’s own.

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‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

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REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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