The U.S. economy is back in the headlines, with more economists and financial experts warning of an impending downturn at some point in the next year. But what is a recession — and what happens during one?
MANILA — The Philippine economy exited a pandemic-induced recession with its fastest year-on-year growth in over three decades, but tighter COVID-19 curbs could hamper the recovery and boost expectations monetary policy will remain accommodative for the rest of 2021.
Gross domestic product (GDP) rose 11.8% in the June quarter from a COVID-driven slump a year earlier, posting the biggest year-on-year expansion since the fourth quarter of 1988, as domestic demand improved, the statistics agency said on Tuesday.
The economy returned to year-on-year growth after five consecutive quarters of contraction.
Economists in a Reuters poll had expected the economy to expand 10% year-on-year in the second quarter, after contracting a record 17% in the same period last year and shrinking a revised 3.9% year-on-year in the first three months of 2021.
The figures come ahead of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) policy review on Thursday, where it is widely expected to keep the policy rate at a record low of 2.0%.
“The robust performance is driven by more than just base effects. It is the result of a better balance between addressing COVID-19 and the need to restore jobs and incomes of the people,” said Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Karl Chua.
The economy, however, contracted a seasonally adjusted 1.3% in the April-June period, after growing 0.3% in the previous quarter.
Household consumption grew 7.2% year-on-year, after four straight quarters of decline, but government spending contracted 4.9% after a 16.1% rise in the March quarter.
The industrial and services sectors grew 20.8% and 9.6%, respectively, while agriculture, forestry, and fishing shrank 0.1% percent.
But there are growing concerns that the nascent recovery could be derailed as the government has tightened coronavirus restrictions to contain the spread of the highly infectious Delta COVID-19 variant.
BSP Governor Benjamin Diokno on Monday reiterated the BSP’s resolve to maintain its accommodative monetary policy for as long as needed to ensure a sustainable recovery.
The economy should grow 8.2% in the second half of the year to hit the low end of the government’s full-year growth target of 6.0%-7.0%, said Philippine Statistics Authority chief Dennis Mapa.
(Writing by Enrico Dela Cruz; Editing by Ana Nicolaci da Costa)
What is a recession? Your economy questions, answered. – The Washington Post
The answers can be complicated and vague.
“Recessions are notoriously hard to predict in advance,” said Tara Sinclair, an economics professor at George Washington University. “It’s pretty easy to say a recession is coming at some point in the future. … It’s much harder to quantify exactly when, how long and how deep.”
For nearly two years, the U.S. economy has notched blockbuster gains, with millions of new jobs and wage hikes adding to the streak of good news. Families and businesses were flush with cash, which they used to buy houses, cars, electronics and other big-ticket items. That extra spending — combined with lingering supply chain shortages and delays from the pandemic — helped drive up prices and contributed to the highest inflation in 40 years.
Now policymakers are trying to tackle some of those skyrocketing prices with higher interest rates. They’re hoping that by making it more expensive for families and businesses to borrow — for investments, homes and cars, for example — that demand for those things will go down. The question is whether they will be able to slow things down just enough, without sending the country into a recession.
Here, we answer some common questions on economic downturns and how they affect Americans.
Ontario premier Ford vows to rebuild economy, unveils new Cabinet – Reuters.com
OTTAWA, June 24 (Reuters) – Doug Ford took the oath of office for a second term as the premier of Canada’s most populous province on Friday with a promise to build highways and homes, and rebuild Ontario’s economy.
Ford’s right-leaning Progressive Conservatives returned to power with a sweeping victory in a provincial election on June 2, winning 83 seats in the 124-seat legislature.
He unveiled a larger 30-member Cabinet, moving former solicitor general Sylvia Jones to role of minister of health and deputy premier, while keeping Peter Bethlenfalvy in post as the debt-laden province’s finance minister.
Ford said he had an “ambitious plan” for his second stint, as his government faced challenges posed by inflation rates hitting a nearly 40-year high in Canada.
“That plan starts with rebuilding Ontario’s economy,” Ford said at his swearing-in ceremony.
He reiterated pledges made in the lead-up to the election, including new spending on highways, transit and the auto sector.
“We’re investing to connect every part of our auto supply chain … the cars of the future will be built right here, Ontario, from start to finish,” Ford said.
Ontario, home to just under 40% of Canada’s 38.2 million people, is Canada’s manufacturing heartland. It is also one of the world’s largest sub-sovereign borrowers, with publicly held debt in excess of C$400 billion ($309.6 billion).
Ford also pledged to address soaring home prices in the province by building more affordable housing.
Canada’s national housing agency projects Ontario to be one of the worst affected by a housing shortage over the next decade. Provincial capital Toronto is already one of the most expensive cities to live in globally.
“Too many families are frozen out of the housing market … we need to build more attainable homes,” Ford said.
($1 = 1.2921 Canadian dollars)
(This story was refiled to fix typo in headline)
Reporting by Ismail Shakil in Ottawa
Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Northern Shootout's return provides a big boost to Orillia's economy – CTV News Barrie
The return of an annual slo-pitch softball event marks the unofficial start of summer in Orillia.
The Northern Shootout is back for its 13 edition after a pandemic-driven hiatus.
The tournament consists of 78 men’s, women’s and co-ed teams from Ontario and Quebec and promises a big boost to the economy in the city.
“Especially after two years of pandemic restrictions,” said Mike Ladouceur, City of Orillia. “This helps our tourism recover, puts heads in beds, hotels are filled, restaurants filled, this is really the big event that begins our summer of events.”
Organizer Mike Borrelli said the tournament has grown to become one of the biggest in Canada.
“We’re pretty much at capacity for participants. We can’t accommodate anymore,” he added. “We’re using the other diamonds, we got all the diamonds in Orillia, and we’re using the Rama diamond, so if we had more diamonds, we could accommodate more teams.”
The owners of Adovo Pizza in Orillia say the increase in tourism has done wonders for their business this year.
This being the first big event of the season, they’re excited to welcome so many people into the city.
“Everyone has just been waiting to get out,” said Adam Zimmerman, co-owner. “Especially for sporting events and vendors, have a cold beer. There’s nothing wrong with it.”
The tournament culminates with an annual home run derby, which organizers said typically draws 1,200 fans to watch.
Sixteen participants will compete to walk away with a championship belt.
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