Piles of commercial-real-estate loans at banks may be worth just 77 cents on the dollar — if that | Canada News Media
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Piles of commercial-real-estate loans at banks may be worth just 77 cents on the dollar — if that

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The swift collapse of Silicon Valley Bank earlier in March put a spotlight on potentially painful losses lurking at banks from trillions of dollars in commercial-real-estate loans on their books.

It also sparked debate over what piles of older loans on commercial properties might be worth now that low interest rates and peak real-estate prices have vanished, and as stress in the banking system makes credit more scarce.

The sale of $72 billion in assets from the failed Silicon Valley Bank by regulators at a $16.5 billion discount, which pencils out to about 77 cents on the dollar, offers a glimpse into a new clearing price for commercial-real-estate loans.

“The way I look at it is: [that] the Silicon Valley Bank trade created a baseline for the market,” David Blatt, chief executive at CapStack Partners, a credit fund that buys commercial-real-estate loans from banks and originates short-term bridge loans and mezzanine debt.

“To me, that’s the top end, not the bottom end, for commercial-real-estate loans,” said Blatt, who studied the bank’s loan exposure.

Unlike stocks or bonds, loans in the estimated $5.5 trillion commercial-property market don’t sell in a transparent way, which means pegging their values can be difficult.

To be sure, not all of the sold assets of Silicon Valley Bank were related to commercial real estate. The bank reported about $13 billion of real-estate exposure at the end of 2022, according to a quarterly filing, which categorized about $2.6 billion as loans on commercial real estate.

Still, Blatt and other commercial-real-estate veterans steeped in previous bank-failure cycles told MarketWatch the sale provides a “mark” in terms of where loans actually changed hands in the wake of two regional-bank failures.

​”Everybody is dusting off their old playbook,” said Jack Mullen, founder of Summer Street Advisors, a commercial-real-estate advisory firm that’s been involved in multibillion-dollar workouts. “There just hasn’t been much distress for years.”

Toll of higher rates

As with bonds, the Federal Reserve’s rapid pace of interest-rate hikes has cut the value of older, low-coupon commercial-real-estate loans. Mullen ​said recent bank failures also make it harder for banks to “sweep it all under the rug,” which ​likely means more loan sales by banks.

“People are not going to let it carry into next year,” he said. “On the regulatory side, it’s coming right to the front of the line. People are supermindful of it.”

Richard Hill, head of real-estate strategy and research at Cohen & Steers, recently argued in a report that while banks hold an estimated 45% of all commercial mortgages, the debt isn’t a systemic risk for banks.

“We previously argued that [a decline of 10% to 20% in commercial-property prices] was reasonable to expect, and we now believe it could be 20–25%,” Hill wrote. He also said higher loan standards in the wake of the 2007–08 global financial crisis can provide lenders a cushion if property values fall.

In the reeling office sector, however, the value of older office buildings in Manhattan could tumble 70%, said Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, a professor of real estate and finance at Columbia University’s business school, in a talk Thursday about turning older offices into homes hosted by the Volcker Alliance.

“Forty percent of that is just coming from interest rates alone,” Van Nieuwerburgh said, adding that remote work, current regulations and other pressures on the office-building market contribute to the value drop.

Write-down implied

Real-estate investors also will be watching the sale of $60 billion of Signature Bank loans. Newmark Group Inc. was hired to market the assets from the failed bank that were excluded in a previous sale of its holdings.

“What everybody has been operating under is this hold-to-maturity veneer,” Blatt said of banks that have continued to value loans at 100 cents on the dollar, or par.

“There’s just no way these things get resolved at par,” Blatt said. With the discounted sale of Silicon Valley assets, “the write-down is kind of implied.”

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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