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Poilievre breathes new life into Trudeau’s chances

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He’s not dead yet, folks. After months of increasingly dire public opinion polls, Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party of Canada are finally showing a political pulse. After Pierre Poilievre’s lousy week in mid-November, highlighted by a conspicuously obnoxious confrontation with a journalist and his party’s nonsensical opposition to a Ukraine-Canada free trade deal, I wrote that it might eventually be seen as a turning point.

Well, as I like to say in situations like this: Ahem.

This new Abacus Data poll shows Liberal support snapping back and Poilievre’s negatives on the rise. “It appears that the Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre have made themselves less acceptable to these past Liberal supporters over the past few weeks and may have even alienated a small portion of their own past supporters, pushing most back into the Liberal fold,” Abacus Data CEO David Coletto said on Twitter.

Poilievre’s recent shenanigans in the House of Commons, which included his party voting repeatedly against the Canada-Ukraine Free Trade Agreement, aren’t likely to help his numbers here. Neither will recent news of the federal government’s deal with Google on Bill C-18, or the growing international trail of evidence behind the Indian government’s involvement in extrajudicial killings in Canada and illegitimate involvement in our democracy. One by one, the issues that Poilievre had been stacking up against the Liberal government are starting to backfire.

Even housing, which has looked like Poilievre’s ace in the hole with young people for a while now, is starting to turn in favour of the government. No, Housing Minister Sean Fraser won’t have single-handedly made homes affordable for young people by 2025, but it will be increasingly difficult to ignore progress being made on that front. For example, as housing expert Mike Moffatt noted, his recent decision to reintroduce the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s catalogue of housing designs “has the potential to be massively beneficial.”

Fraser may not be moving mountains yet with his seemingly endless schedule of funding announcements and regulatory changes, but he’s definitely moving the needle. How far he can get it to budge, and how clearly young Canadians see that, will weigh heavily on the next election’s outcome.

So, too, of course, will inflation. With each new batch of monthly data, it becomes increasingly clear the worst of the inflationary crisis is behind us and central banks around the world will start cutting interest rates as soon as early next year. The president of the New York Federal Reserve, for example, thinks the United States will hit its two per cent inflation target by 2025 — and as the United States goes, so does Canada. By the time we’re in a federal election, the affordability issues top of mind for so many Canadians may have eased significantly as interest rates for mortgages and lines of credit drop precipitously.

What might that leave as ground over which the election will be fought? Climate, for one, especially if the election is held at the tail end of another smoky summer. Trust might be another battleground, and Poilievre is vulnerable here, given his previous dalliances with far-right influencers and personalities who more mainstream Canadians find hard to stomach. And, of course, there’s always the possibility of another Trump administration, which would upend the political table in ways we still can’t quite (or don’t want to) fathom.

None of this is to suggest that a Liberal comeback is a safe bet, much less a sure thing. But there are historical parallels that show it’s far from impossible. In both 2007 and 2011, Dalton McGuinty’s Ontario Liberals were well behind the opposition PCs in pre-election polls and still won both handily. In 2013, the BC Liberal Party’s Christy Clark was down by 15 points and ended up winning by four. And, of course, Trudeau’s father was actually defeated in an election in 1979 before coming back the following year and winning a crushing majority. Campaigns do matter, and more so in Canada than it might seem.

The polls are starting to show a meaningful bounce in Liberal support — one that could portend a much better year for Justin Trudeau’s government in 2024 than it had in 2023.

In the months leading up to the next election, expect the Trudeau Liberals to channel legendary strategist Keith Davey’s famous line that helped pull both his dad and McGuinty out of the political ditch. “Don’t compare me to the almighty,” it advises. “Compare me to the alternative.”

So long as that alternative is a guy who takes cryptocurrency more seriously than climate change and talks about foreign policy like he’s Neville Chamberlain, the Trudeau Liberals will have a fighting chance.

 

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Christian McCaffrey is placed on injured reserve for the 49ers and will miss at least 4 more games

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SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) — The San Francisco 49ers placed All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey on injured reserve because of his lingering calf and Achilles tendon injuries.

The move made Saturday means McCaffrey will miss at least four more games after already sitting out the season opener. He is eligible to return for a Thursday night game in Seattle on Oct. 10.

McCaffrey got hurt early in training camp and missed four weeks of practice before returning to the field on a limited basis last week. He was a late scratch for the opener on Monday night against the Jets and now is sidelined again after experiencing pain following practice on Thursday.

McCaffrey led the NFL last season with 2,023 yards from scrimmage and was tied for the league lead with 21 touchdowns, winning AP Offensive Player of the Year.

The Niners made up for McCaffrey’s absence thanks to a strong performance from backup Jordan Mason, who had 28 carries for 147 yards and a touchdown in San Francisco’s 32-19 victory over the New York Jets. Mason is set to start again Sunday at Minnesota.

After missing 23 games because of injuries in his final two full seasons with Carolina, McCaffrey had been healthy the past two seasons.

He missed only one game combined in 2022-23 — a meaningless Week 18 game last season for San Francisco when he had a sore calf. His 798 combined touches from scrimmage in the regular season and playoffs were the third most for any player in a two-year span in the past 10 years.

Now San Francisco will likely rely heavily on Mason, a former undrafted free agent out of Georgia Tech who had 83 carries his first two seasons. He had at least 10 touches just twice before the season opener, when his 28 carries were the most by a 49ers player in a regular-season game since Frank Gore had 31 against Seattle on Oct. 30, 2011.

The Niners also have fourth-round rookie Isaac Guerendo and Patrick Taylor Jr. on the active roster. Guerendo played three offensive snaps with no touches in the opener. Taylor had 65 carries for Green Bay from 2021-23.

San Francisco also elevated safety Tracy Walker III from the practice squad for Sunday’s game against Minnesota.

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Canada’s Newman, Arop secure third-place finishes at Diamond League track event

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BRUSSELS – Canada walked away with some hardware at the Diamond League track and field competition Saturday.

Alysha Newman finished third in women’s pole vault, while Marco Arop did the same in the men’s 800-metre race.

Newman won a bronze medal in her event at the recent Paris Olympics. Arop grabbed silver at the same distance in France last month.

Australia’s Nina Kennedy, who captured gold at the Summer Games, again finished atop the podium. Sandi Morris of the United States was second.

Newman set a national record when she secured Canada’s first-ever pole vault medal with a bronze at the Olympics with a height of 4.85 metres. The 30-year-old from London, Ont., cleared 4.80 metres in her second attempt Saturday, but was unable conquer 4.88 metres on three attempts.

Arop, a 25-year-old from Edmonton, finished the men’s 800 metres with a time of one minute 43.25 seconds. Olympic gold medallist Emmanuel Wanyonyi of Kenya was first with a time of 1:42.70.

Djamel Sedjati, edged out by Arop for silver in Paris last month, was second 1:42.87

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024.

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Bologna prepares for Champions League debut with draw at Como while Juventus held

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MILAN (AP) — Bologna’s preparations for its Champions League debut are not going well though it managed to spoil Como’s first Serie A home match in 21 years on Saturday.

Bologna came from two goals down to salvage a 2-2 draw to gather three points from its opening four matches.

Bologna hosts Shakhtar Donetsk on Wednesday. Its only other appearance in Europe’s top competition was in 1964 in the preliminary round of the old European Cup.

AC Milan is also winless as it prepares for a Tuesday Champions League match against Liverpool. The Rossoneri hosted promoted Venezia later. Juventus drew at Empoli 0-0.

Como made a great start in the fifth minute when Patrick Cutrone attempted to roll the ball across the six-yard box but it took a huge deflection off Bologna defender Nicolò Casale for an own goal.

Bologna thought it was gifted a way back into the match on the stroke of halftime when referee Marco Piccinini signalled for a penalty following an Alberto Moreno handball, but he revoked his decision and instead gave a free kick because the handball was just outside the area.

Bologna improved after the break but found itself further behind when Cutrone raced onto a through ball and cut inside past a defender and fired into the far bottom corner.

Tommaso Pobega hit the post for Bologna, which finally pulled one back in the 76th through substitute Santiago Castro.

Another substitute helped the visitors snatch a point when Samuel Iling-Junior curled a fine strike into the top left corner in stoppage time.

Unbeaten sides

Juventus, and more surprisingly Empoli, are among six unbeaten sides.

Empoli held Monza and Bologna to draws either side of a shock 2-1 win at Roma. Juventus’ perfect start to the season was ruined by Roma in a goalless draw before the international break.

On Saturday, there were few clearcut chances in Empoli although home goalkeeper Devis Vásquez made spectacular saves to fingertip out a Federico Gatti header and deny Dusan Vlahovic in a one on one with the Juventus forward.

Empoli had a good opportunity in the 73rd minute following an Alberto Grassi one-two with Pietro Pellegri but the finish was straight at Mattia Perin.

The host could have won it right at the death but Gatti flew in with a great sliding block to keep out Emanuel Gyasi’s close-range effort.

Juventus hosts PSV Eindhoven in the Champions League on Tuesday.

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AP soccer:

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