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Politicians need to remember that this is a suburban, car-commuting nation

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Traffic passes along Highway 400 under Highway 7 on June 17, 2019.Fred Lum

Sometimes, policymakers and analysts see the world as they wish it was, rather than as it is. This can lead to bad decisions. In politics, it can lead to defeat at the polls.

Earlier this year, a team led by David Gordon, an urban studies professor at Queen’s University, released the latest version of the Canada Suburbs Atlas.

Using census data, satellite and street images and information from local experts, the team plotted growth patterns for 41 Canadian cities between 2016 and 2021.

They noted a small uptick in the portion of the urban population living in city centres, mostly the result of new condo towers. But the overwhelming share of new growth occurred in outer suburbs and in the exurbs beyond them. To be precise:

  • Car-dependent outer suburbs absorbed 66 per cent of all population growth between 2016 and 2021. Exurban developments beyond those suburbs absorbed 16 per cent;
  • City cores accounted for 13 per cent of population growth, while transit-served inner suburbs accounted for 5 per cent.

“Canada is a suburban nation,” the report reminded us. “More than two-thirds of our country’s total population lives in suburbs.” And most of those suburban dwellers live in car-dependent communities.

Many an urban theorist has sought to imagine cities differently from what they are. Many preach the importance of densification, of infill, of improved transit, of restrictions on sprawl.

But that’s not what North American cities are. That’s not where – and, more important, that’s not how – most people live. And if you tell them they must live differently, they will reject you.

Justin Trudeau’s Liberals used to understand this. Their 2015 election platform included major new investments in infrastructure and child care, both of which would appeal to suburban voters with families. In that election, the Liberals virtually swept suburban ridings in Ontario and British Columbia, a major contributor to their majority government.


Total population and dwelling unit growth

within Canada’s CMAs over time

Per cent, by neighbourhood type and timeframe

2006 to 2016

2016 to 2021

Population growth

Active

core

Transit

suburb

Auto

suburb

Dwelling unit growth

Active

core

Transit

suburb

Auto

suburb

Active cores: Neighbourhoods where a higher proportion of people use active transportation (walk or cycle) to get to work.

Transit suburbs: Neighbourhoods where a higher proportion of people commute by transit.

Auto suburbs: Neighbourhoods where almost all people commute by automobile; there is negligible transit, walking or cycling to work.

Exurbs: Low-density rural areas where more than half the workers commute to the central core.

THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE:

CANADIAN SUBURBS ATLAS 2023

Total population and dwelling unit growth

within Canada’s CMAs over time

Per cent, by neighbourhood type and timeframe

2006 to 2016

2016 to 2021

Population growth

Active

core

Transit

suburb

Auto

suburb

Dwelling unit growth

Active

core

Transit

suburb

Auto

suburb

Active cores: Neighbourhoods where a higher proportion of people use active transportation (walk or cycle) to get to work.

Transit suburbs: Neighbourhoods where a higher proportion of people commute by transit.

Auto suburbs: Neighbourhoods where almost all people commute by automobile; there is negligible transit, walking or cycling to work.

Exurbs: Low-density rural areas where more than half the workers commute to the central core.

THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE:

CANADIAN SUBURBS ATLAS 2023

Total population and dwelling unit growth within Canada’s CMAs over time

Per cent, by neighbourhood type and timeframe

2006 to 2016

2016 to 2021

Population growth

Dwelling unit growth

Active

core

Transit

suburb

Auto

suburb

Active

core

Transit

suburb

Auto

suburb

Active cores: Neighbourhoods where a higher proportion of people use active transportation (walk or cycle) to get to work.

Transit suburbs: Neighbourhoods where a higher proportion of people commute by transit.

Auto suburbs: Neighbourhoods where almost all people commute by automobile; there is negligible transit, walking or cycling to work.

Exurbs: Low-density rural areas where more than half the workers commute to the central core.

THE GLOBE AND MAIL, SOURCE: CANADIAN SUBURBS ATLAS 2023

While the Liberals haven’t abandoned these priorities, in the past six months they have talked more about streaming services, news delivery and other cultural issues, while promoting the conversion to electric vehicles.

Culture is rarely a top-of-mind concern for voters. And as for the shift to EVs, people in car-commuting suburbs will have questions: Can I afford the EV and the retrofit at home? How far will an electric SUV go in January? Will there be enough charging stations to guarantee a quick charge whenever and wherever it’s needed? How will provincial generating capacity meet demand?

How is any of this supposed to make a couple with two children and a packed agenda – getting to work and back, getting the kids to school and to everything after-school, while shopping for food and checking in on elderly parents – feel better about what lies ahead?

No wonder the Conservatives have pulled ahead in the polls. Pierre Poilievre focuses on middle-class, suburban voters virtually to the exclusion of all else. And as Prof. Gordon’s report observes: “Politicians who can drive a wedge between suburban and inner-city voters will have a substantial majority at the polls.”

If Mr. Trudeau wants to get re-elected, he would do well to obsess on the needs and aspirations of middle-class voters in car-commuting suburbs and ignore every other consideration.

There are all sorts of things wrong with car-commuting suburbs. Driving everywhere rather than walking or taking transit is hard on the environment and hard on your health. New subdivisions require infrastructure that everyone must pay for. Paving over farmland reduces food security.

But car-commuting suburbs allow middle-income people to own a home and raise a family with a reasonably high quality of life. For most people, that trumps every other consideration. As the next generation of young workers seeks a first home, even as permanent and temporary-resident levels soar, jamming the market and pushing up prices, the demand for new tracts of suburban housing will only increase.

By all means densify existing neighbourhoods, convert office buildings to condos and improve public transit while encouraging EVs. But get real: Meeting the demand for new housing, both for young people and for immigrants, means building cities out.

We’ve been doing it now for 80 years. Don’t think for a moment it will ever stop.

 

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Youri Chassin quits CAQ to sit as Independent, second member to leave this month

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Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.

He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.

In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.

Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.

He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.

Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.

He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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‘I’m not going to listen to you’: Singh responds to Poilievre’s vote challenge

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MONTREAL – NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says he will not be taking advice from Pierre Poilievre after the Conservative leader challenged him to bring down government.

“I say directly to Pierre Poilievre: I’m not going to listen to you,” said Singh on Wednesday, accusing Poilievre of wanting to take away dental-care coverage from Canadians, among other things.

“I’m not going to listen to your advice. You want to destroy people’s lives, I want to build up a brighter future.”

Earlier in the day, Poilievre challenged Singh to commit to voting non-confidence in the government, saying his party will force a vote in the House of Commons “at the earliest possibly opportunity.”

“I’m asking Jagmeet Singh and the NDP to commit unequivocally before Monday’s byelections: will they vote non-confidence to bring down the costly coalition and trigger a carbon tax election, or will Jagmeet Singh sell out Canadians again?” Poilievre said.

“It’s put up or shut up time for the NDP.”

While Singh rejected the idea he would ever listen to Poilievre, he did not say how the NDP would vote on a non-confidence motion.

“I’ve said on any vote, we’re going to look at the vote and we’ll make our decision. I’m not going to say our decision ahead of time,” he said.

Singh’s top adviser said on Tuesday the NDP leader is not particularly eager to trigger an election, even as the Conservatives challenge him to do just that.

Anne McGrath, Singh’s principal secretary, says there will be more volatility in Parliament and the odds of an early election have risen.

“I don’t think he is anxious to launch one, or chomping at the bit to have one, but it can happen,” she said in an interview.

New Democrat MPs are in a second day of meetings in Montreal as they nail down a plan for how to navigate the minority Parliament this fall.

The caucus retreat comes one week after Singh announced the party has left the supply-and-confidence agreement with the governing Liberals.

It’s also taking place in the very city where New Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat on Monday, when voters go to the polls in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. A second byelection is being held that day in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona, where the NDP is hoping to hold onto a seat the Conservatives are also vying for.

While New Democrats are seeking to distance themselves from the Liberals, they don’t appear ready to trigger a general election.

Singh signalled on Tuesday that he will have more to say Wednesday about the party’s strategy for the upcoming sitting.

He is hoping to convince Canadians that his party can defeat the federal Conservatives, who have been riding high in the polls over the last year.

Singh has attacked Poilievre as someone who would bring back Harper-style cuts to programs that Canadians rely on, including the national dental-care program that was part of the supply-and-confidence agreement.

The Canadian Press has asked Poilievre’s office whether the Conservative leader intends to keep the program in place, if he forms government after the next election.

With the return of Parliament just days away, the NDP is also keeping in mind how other parties will look to capitalize on the new makeup of the House of Commons.

The Bloc Québécois has already indicated that it’s written up a list of demands for the Liberals in exchange for support on votes.

The next federal election must take place by October 2025 at the latest.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Social media comments blocked: Montreal mayor says she won’t accept vulgar slurs

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Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante is defending her decision to turn off comments on her social media accounts — with an announcement on social media.

She posted screenshots to X this morning of vulgar names she’s been called on the platform, and says comments on her posts for months have been dominated by insults, to the point that she decided to block them.

Montreal’s Opposition leader and the Canadian Civil Liberties Association have criticized Plante for limiting freedom of expression by restricting comments on her X and Instagram accounts.

They say elected officials who use social media should be willing to hear from constituents on those platforms.

However, Plante says some people may believe there is a fundamental right to call someone offensive names and to normalize violence online, but she disagrees.

Her statement on X is closed to comments.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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