Politics and disengagement: Two-in-five say there's “no room” for compromise in Canada; most say their interests are ignored - Angus Reid Institute | Canada News Media
Fewer than half say Canada has a “good system of government”
February 4, 2022 – Scenes of anger, defiance and resentment on the streets of Ottawa this week appear to be symptomatic of a broader sense of disengagement and frustration with the state of Canadian democracy, according to new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute.
This latest ARI study finds Canadians equally divided over whether the country can be accurately described as having a “good system of government”; 42 per cent do, 45 per cent do not.
And while some may argue that the collaboration required in a minority government is a feature of the nation’s democracy and not a bug, the sense is that partisanship and politics may be preventing the type of cooperation that would produce better results for constituents.
Indeed, 37 per cent of Canadians feel that there is no room for political compromise these days in Canada. This proportion is highest in the more conservative core of the country, in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. Beyond those areas of anticipated criticism, however, are significant portions of the country across the political spectrum that do not feel well-represented in Ottawa.
In no region of the country do a majority of residents say that they feel the federal government cares about issues important to them. Quebecers are most bullish on this question, with 41 per cent saying they feel heard by Ottawa. Notably, seven-in-ten past Liberal voters (69%) say that this government cares about issues that matter to them, followed by two-in-five of those who supported the NDP (40%) and Bloc Québécois (39%) in September, and just 11 per cent of past CPC voters.
More Key Findings:
Fewer than half (47%) of 18- to 34-year-old men say Canada is a country they are proud to live in. For all other demographics, at least two-thirds say so.
Women over the age of 55 are the only demographic group where at least half (51%) feels like the federal government is attuned to issues they feel are important.
One-third (34%) of Canadians believe elections are becoming less free and fair, more than the number (23%) who believe instead that aspect of democracy is strengthening.
About ARI
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.
INDEX
Part One: Two-in-five believe there’s no room for political compromise in Canada
Three-in-five believe the federal government ignores issues important to them
Part Two: More believe electoral system is weakening than becoming stronger
CPC, NDP voters critical of direction of democratic influence
Few believe Canada is immune to ‘Trump-style politics’
Part Three: Canadians disagree over quality of their system of government
Younger Canadians more disillusioned with government
Non-Liberal voters more likely to take issue with Canada’s system of government
Part One: Two-in-five believe there’s no room for political compromise in Canada
Divide and division have become common words used in Canadian politics of late. When Erin O’Toole stepped down this week as party leader of the Conservatives after being ousted by a majority vote of party MPs, he asked the next leader to recognize Canada “is divided and people are worried.”
Little wonder then, that a significant segment of Canadians believe political discourse in this country is devoid of compromise. While just under half (48%) disagree, two-in-five (37%) are of the view that when it comes to talking politics, Canadians have retreated to their corners and are refusing to move.
That feeling is strongest in Alberta and Saskatchewan, where at least two-in-five believe political compromise is lacking in the country, but at least one-third in all regions believe this is the case:
Women are more likely than men to believe there is room for politicians with differing views to work together, while at least two-in-five of men of all ages believe there is no space for political accommodation (see detailed tables).
Echoing the divisiveness in Canada cited by their former leader, past Conservative voters are more likely to believe there is significant political discord in the country – half (48%) say this. While past voters of Canada’s other major parties are more likely to believe there is a middle ground, at least three-in-ten of partisans of all stripes believe there is no room for political compromise:
Three-in-five believe the federal government ignores issues important to them
As a significant minority believes political compromise is unattainable, many are disillusioned with the federal government itself. Three-in-five (59%) believe Ottawa does not care about issues that are important to them.
This is the majority opinion across the country and the sentiment of three-quarters in Alberta (73%) and Saskatchewan (76%). Those in Quebec (41%) and B.C. (39%) are most likely to feel heard by Ottawa:
Women over the age of 55 are the only group where half (51%) feel like the federal government is attuned to issues they feel are important. For every other demographic, more believe Ottawa does not care about their key issues than the opposite, including seven-in-ten men under the age of 55:
The Liberals have formed government since 2015, when Prime Minister Justin Trudeau led the party to a majority government in his first election as leader. Still, one-quarter (25%) of those who voted Liberal in the 2021 election say they don’t believe the federal government cares about the issues they believe are important. This may be emblematic of a disconnect between the party and its supporters, or a consequence of strategic voting, which has aided the Liberals in the past two elections. For past supporters of the rest of the major political parties, a majority believe this, including nearly all (88%) of those who voted Conservative last fall:
Part Two: More believe electoral system is weakening than becoming stronger
ARI asked Canadians whether a series of significant pillars of strong democracies – the equal application of the rule of law, free and fair elections, protection of human rights, ease of participation in politics, and the concept that power lies with the people – were strengthening or weakening in this country.
On some measures – human rights, ease of participation – more Canadians believe the country has improved than worsened. On others, more Canadians believe the pillars are eroding than standing strong.
One-third (34%) believe there has been damage to the country’s free and fair elections compared to the one-quarter (23%) who believe this aspect of democracy has instead been bolstered. Half (51%) believe the power of the average Canadian is decreasing.
Finally, a majority (53%) believe there has been a weakening when it comes to the equal application of the rule of law. This, notably, as some wonder about the differences in treatment of participants in the “Freedom Convoy” as compared to how past demonstrations by Indigenous and Black Canadians have bene handled.
Across the country, there is significant belief that some of these key tenets of democracy are weakening. That feeling is strongest in Alberta, where two-thirds (67%) believe the equal application of the rule of law is waning and three-in-five (58%) believe elections aren’t as free and fair as they used to be. Only in Quebec does the number of people who believe Canada has strengthened its electoral system (28%) outnumber those who say the opposite (21%):
CPC, NDP voters critical of direction of democratic influence
Young men, and particularly those under the age of 35, are most likely to believe Canada has lost ground on the equal application of the law, human rights, ease of participation in politics, and keeping the power with the people. As well, almost half (46%) of 18- to 34-year-old men say elections have become less free and fair (see detailed tables).
For three of the five of the key tenets presented to respondents, past Liberal voters are more likely to say they are strengthening than weakening. For the others – the power is invested in the people and the rule of law applies equally to everyone – there are near equal numbers who say it is strengthening as weakening.
By contrast, past Conservative and NDP voters are more likely to believe Canada’s equal application of the rule of law and the democratic power of the average Canadian has weakened than strengthened. As well, a majority of CPC voters in the most recent federal election believe there has been a weakening of the electoral process:
Few believe Canada is immune to ‘Trump-style politics’
Last year, for the first time, the Sweden-based International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance listed the U.S. as a backsliding democracy. The institute cited the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol and former President Donald Trump’s baseless claims of electoral fraud during the 2020 election as causes for concern.
This is the overwhelming majority opinion across the country and all demographics (see detailed tables).
Across the political spectrum, at least three-quarters of all partisans believe Canada is vulnerable to Trump-style politics. Those who voted Bloc in the fall are the most likely to believe Canada is immune to Trump’s brand of populism at one-in-five (21%):
Part Three: Canadians disagree over quality of their system of government
Despite much concern over the strength of the country’s pillars of democracy, Canadians are more positive than negative when it comes to their place in the nation overall. Seven-in-ten (71%) say they are proud to live in Canada and three-in-five (63%) believe Canadian society is “caring”. Where there is more division is on Canada’s system of government: equal numbers believe it’s good (42%) as believe it’s not (45%):
ARI asked Canadians similar questions in 2016. Since then, fewer believe Canadian society is caring, while more believe Canada is prosperous. Canadians were similarly divided, then, on whether or not Canada’s system of government is good:
Residents in Alberta and Saskatchewan are the most likely to disagree that Canada’s system of government is good at three-in-five (61%). Those in Quebec (45%) and Atlantic Canada (48%) are more likely to say Canada’s system of government works, but in both those regions there are approaching two-in-five who disagree:
Young Canadians more disillusioned with government
Overall, younger Canadians are much more critical of Canadian society and government than their older peers. Three-in-ten men and women under the age of 35 say it’s accurate that Canada has a good system of government compared to half (50%) of men and three-in-five (59%) of women aged 55 and older who say the same.
As well, fewer than half (47%) of 18- to 34-year-old men say they are proud to live in Canada. For every other demographic, at least two-thirds say so:
Non-Liberal voters more likely to take issue with Canada’s system of government
As the Liberals continue to hold power in a minority parliament, seven-in-ten (69%) of those who voted for the party last fall say they are satisfied with Canada’s system of government. There is not the same level of agreement for those who voted for Canada’s other major parties.
A majority (69%) of past Conservative voters say it’s inaccurate that Canada has a good system of government, and they are joined by two-in-five (42%) past NDP voters and one-third (33%) of those who voted for the Bloc:
Survey Methodology:
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Jan. 27-31, 2022 among a representative randomized sample of 1,620 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
To read the full report, including detailed tables and methodology, click here.
To read the questionnaire in English and French, click here.
The New Democrats have declared a federal byelection victory in their Winnipeg stronghold riding of Elmwood—Transcona.
The NDP candidate Leila Dance told supporters in a tearful speech that even though the final results weren’t in, she expected she would see them in Ottawa.
With several polls still to be counted, Conservative candidate Colin Reynolds conceded defeat and told his volunteers that they should be proud of what the Conservatives accomplished in the campaign.
Political watchers had a keen eye on the results to see if the Tories could sway traditionally NDP voters on issues related to labour and affordability.
Meanwhile in the byelection race in the Montreal riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun the NDP, Liberals and Bloc Québécois remained locked in an extremely tight three-way race as the results trickled in slowly.
The Liberal stronghold riding had a record 91 names on the ballot, and the results aren’t expected until the early hours of the morning.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
VANCOUVER – An incumbent BC United legislative member has reversed her decision not to seek re-election and has announced she’ll run as an Independent in the riding of West Vancouver-Capilano in the upcoming British Columbia election.
Karin Kirkpatrick has been a vocal critic of BC United Leader Kevin Falcon’s decision last month to suspend the party’s campaign and throw support behind the B.C. Conservatives under John Rustad.
Kirkpatrick announced her retirement this year, but said Monday that her decision to re-enter the race comes as a direct result of Falcon’s actions, which would force middle-of-the-road voters to “swing to the left” to the NDP or to move further right to the Conservatives.
“I did hear from a lot of constituents and a lot of people who were emailing me from across B.C. … that they didn’t have anybody to vote for,” she said. “And so, I looked even at myself, and I looked at my riding, and I said, ‘Well, I no longer have anybody to vote for in my own riding.’ It was clearly an issue of this missing middle for the more moderate voter.”
She said voters who reached out “don’t want to vote for an NDP government but felt deeply uncomfortable” supporting the provincial Conservatives, citing Rustad’s tolerance of what she calls “extreme views and conspiracy theorists.”
Kirkpatrick joins four other incumbent Opposition MLAs running as Independents, including Peace River South’s Mike Bernier, Peace River North’s Dan Davies, Prince George-Cariboo’s Coralee Oakes and Tom Shypitka in Kootenay-Rockies.
“To be honest, we talk just about every day,” Kirkpatrick said about her fellow BC United incumbents now running as Independents. “We’re all feeling the same way. We all need to kind of hold each other up and make sure we’re doing the right thing.”
She added that a number of first-time candidates formerly on the BC United ticket are contacting the group of incumbents running for election, and the group is working together “as good moderates who respect each other and lift each other up.”
But Kirkpatrick said it’s also too early to talk about the future of BC United or the possibility of forming a new party.
“The first thing we need to do is to get these Independent MLAs elected into the legislature,” she said, noting a strong group could play a power-broker role if a minority government is elected. “Once we’re there then we’re all going to come together and we’re going to figure out, is there something left in BC United, BC Liberals that we can resurrect, or do we need to start a new party that’s in the centre?”
She said there’s a big gap left in the political spectrum in the province.
“So, we just have to do it in a mindful way, to make sure it’s representing the broadest base of people in B.C.”
Among the supporters at Kirkpatrick’s announcement Monday was former longtime MLA Ralph Sultan, who held West Vancouver-Capilano for almost two decades before retiring in 2020.
The Metro Vancouver riding has been a stronghold for the BC Liberals — the former BC United — since its formation in 1991, with more than half of the votes going to the centre-right party in every contest.
However, Kirkpatrick’s winning margin of 53.6 per cent to the NDP’s 30.1 per cent and the Green’s 15.4 per cent in the 2020 election shows a rising trend for left-leaning voters in the district.
Mike McDonald, chief strategy officer with Kirk and Co. Consulting, and a former campaign director for the BC Liberals and chief of staff under former Premier Christy Clark, said Independent candidates historically face an uphill battle and the biggest impact may be splitting votes in areas where the NDP could emerge victorious.
“It really comes down to, if the NDP are in a position to get 33 per cent of the vote, they might have a chance of winning,” McDonald said of the impact of an Independent vote-split with the Conservatives in certain ridings.
He said B.C. history shows it’s very hard for an Independent to win an election and has been done only a handful of times.
“So, the odds do not favour Independents winning the seats unless there is a very unique combination of circumstances, and more likely that they play a role as a spoiler, frankly.”
The B.C. Conservatives list West Vancouver School District Trustee Lynne Block as its candidate in West Vancouver-Capilano, while the BC NDP is represented by health care professional Sara Eftekhar.
Kirkpatrick said she is confident that her re-entry to the race will not result in a vote split that allows the NDP to win the seat because the party has always had a poor showing in the riding.
“So, even if there is competition between myself and the Conservative candidate, it is highly unlikely that anything would swing over to the NDP here. And I believe that I have the ability to actually attract those NDP voters to me, as well as the Conservatives and Liberals who are feeling just lost right now.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Secretary of State Antony Blinken heads to Egypt on Tuesday for his 10th trip to the Middle East since the war in Gaza began nearly a year ago, this one aimed partly at refining a proposal to present to Israel and Hamas for a cease-fire deal and release of hostages.
Unlike in recent mediating missions, America’s top diplomat this time is traveling without optimistic projections from the Biden administration of an expected breakthrough in the troubled negotiations.
Also unlike the earlier missions, Blinken has no public plans to go to Israel to meet with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on this trip. The Israeli leader’s fiery public statements — like his declaration that Israel would accept only “total victory” when Blinken was in the region in June — and some other unbudgeable demands have complicated earlier diplomacy.
Blinken is going to Egypt for talks Wednesday with Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty and others, in a trip billed as focused both on American-Egyptian relations and Gaza consultations with Egypt.
The tamped-down public approach follows months in which President Joe Biden and his officials publicly talked up an agreement to end the war in Gaza as being just within reach, hoping to build pressure on Netanyahu’s far-right government and Hamas to seal a deal.
The Biden administration now says it is working with fellow mediators Egypt and Qatar to come up with a revised final proposal to try to at least get Israel and Hamas into a six-week cease-fire that would free some of the hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Americans believe public attention on details of the talks now would only hurt that effort.
American, Qatari and Egyptian officials still are consulting “about what that proposal will contain, and …. we’re trying to see that it’s a proposal that can get the parties to an ultimate agreement,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said Monday.
The State Department pointed to Egypt’s important role in Gaza peace efforts in announcing last week that the Biden administration planned to give the country its full $1.3 billion in military aid, overriding congressional requirements that the U.S. hold back some of the funding if Egypt fails to show adequate progress on human rights. Blinken told Congress that Egypt has made progress on human rights, including in freeing political prisoners.
Blinken’s trip comes amid the risk of a full-on new front in the Middle East, with Israel threatening increasing military action against the Hezbollah militant organization in Lebanon. Biden envoy Amos Hochstein was in Israel on Monday to try to calm tensions after a stop in Lebanon.
Hezbollah has one of the strongest militaries in the Middle East, and like Hamas and smaller groups in Syria and Iraq it is allied with Iran.
Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged strikes across Israel’s northern border with Lebanon since the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas started the war in Gaza. Hezbollah says it will ease those strikes — which have uprooted tens of thousands of civilians on both sides of the border — only when there’s a cease-fire in Gaza.
Hochstein told Netanyahu and other Israeli officials that intensifying the conflict with Hezbollah would not help get Israelis back in their homes, according to a U.S. official. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the private talks, said Hochstein stressed to Netanyahu that he risked sparking a broad and protracted regional conflict if he moved forward with a full-scale war in Lebanon.
Hochstein also underscored to Israeli officials that the Biden administration remained committed to finding a diplomatic solution to the tensions on Israel’s northern border in conjunction with a Gaza deal or on its own, the official said.
Netanyahu told Hochstein that it would “not be possible to return our residents without a fundamental change in the security situation in the north.” The prime minister said Israel “appreciates and respects” U.S. support but “will do what is necessary to maintain its security and return the residents of the north to their homes safely.”
Israel Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, meanwhile, warned in his meeting with Hochstein that “the only way left to ensure the return of Israel’s northern communities to their homes will be via military action,” his office said.
In Gaza, the U.S. says Israel and Hamas have agreed to a deal in principle and that the biggest obstacles now include a disagreement on details of the hostage and prisoner swap and control over a buffer zone on the border between Gaza and Egypt. Netanyahu has demanded in recent weeks that the Israeli military be allowed to keep a presence in the Philadelphi corridor. Egypt and Hamas have rejected that demand.
The Hamas-led attacks in southern Israel on Oct. 7 killed about 1,200 people. Militants also abducted 250 people and are still holding around 100 hostages. About a third of the remaining hostages are believed to be dead.
Israel’s offensive in Gaza has killed more than 41,000 Palestinians, said Gaza’s Health Ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and militants in its count. The war has caused widespread destruction, displaced a majority of Gaza’s people and created a humanitarian crisis.
Netanyahu says he is working to bring home the hostages. His critics accuse him of slow-rolling a deal because it could bring down his hardline coalition government, which includes members opposed to a truce with the Palestinians.
Asked earlier this month if Netanyahu was doing enough for a cease-fire deal, Biden said, simply, “no.” But he added that he still believed a deal was close.
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Associated Press writer Aamer Madhani contributed to this report.
