It’s budget day in Ottawa, with Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland set to table the spending plan at 4 p.m. ET.
Details of the budget will be released in a lockup underway through the day, and this newsletter is being written ahead of the beginning of that lockup.
However deputy Ottawa bureau chief Bill Curry and Ottawa bureau chief Robert Fife have some advance details.
Ms. Freeland’s budget will promise $10-billion to make housing more affordable for Canadians, provide $8-billion in new defence spending, and aim to spur economic growth through green initiatives and a small-business tax cut.
And senior writer Grant Robertson reports here that Ottawa is setting aside $16-million in the budget to fund the newly formed Office of the Sport Integrity Commissioner, which has been created to confront serious complaints of abuse and maltreatment in sport.
Please check The Globe and Mail later today for news and commentary on the budget.
This is the daily Politics Briefing newsletter, written by Ian Bailey. It is available exclusively to our digital subscribers. If you’re reading this on the web, subscribers can sign up for the Politics newsletter and more than 20 others on our newsletter signup page. Have any feedback? Let us know what you think.
TODAY’S HEADLINES
`LOW LIKELIHOOD OF SUCCESS’ PROMPTED FEDERAL COURT MOVE – The federal government abandoned its 2015 appeal of a court ruling that released the Catholic Church from its financial obligations to residential school survivors because it believed there was a “low likelihood of success,” according to records obtained by The Globe and Mail. Story here.
100 MILLION PEOPLE TO BE DISPLACED: UN REFUGEE CHIEF – The United Nations refugee chief says the world is headed toward an unprecedented displacement of 100 million people as Russia’s war in Ukraine forces refugees to flee at an overwhelming pace. Filippo Grandi issued the warning during a press conference on Parliament Hill on Wednesday. Story here.
FEDS APPROVE NEWFOUNDLAND OIL DEVELOPMENT – Ottawa has approved a new oil development off the coast of Newfoundland and Labrador, just one week after the federal government said the oil and gas sector needs to cut its emissions nearly in half by the end of the decade. Story here.
BURNOUT AN ISSUE AMONG PUBLIC SERVICE EXECUTIVES: ASSOCIATION – An unprecedented number of public service executives are burned out and looking for demotions after working flat-out to manage crisis after crisis since the pandemic hit two years ago, says the association representing them. Story here from Policy Options.
NEW WILSON-RAYBOULD BOOK COMING – Former Liberal cabinet minister Jody Wilson-Raybould is set to publish a book that’s being billed as a guide to reconciliation. McClelland & Stewart says True Reconciliation: How to Be a Force for Change is slated to hit shelves on Nov. 8. Story here from CTV.
SUPPORT FOR EMBATTLED ALBERTA PREMIER – As United Conservative Party members prepare to cast ballots on the fate of Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, 19 former conservative legislature members say they support him. Story here.
CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP RACE
ALLESLEV IN – Former Conservative deputy leader Leona Alleslev has officially entered the party’s leadership race. Story here.
POILIEVRE IN B.C. – Ottawa-area MP Pierre Poilievre begins a B.C. tour on Thursday, with an evening stop on Commercial Drive in Vancouver.
THIS AND THAT
TODAY IN THE COMMONS – Projected Order of Business at the House of Commons, April 7, accessible here.
OVERSIGHT GROUP FOR LIBERAL-NDP DEAL – NDP spokesperson Mélanie Richer has told The Globe and Mail this week that the party has named three MPs to an oversight group for the deal between the Liberals and the NDP. They are Laurel Collins, Blake Desjarlais and Daniel Blaikie. The NDP did not have information on the names of any staff who may be included. Liberal MPs Pablo Rodriguez, Dominic LeBlanc and Ruby Sahota will represent the government in the group, says the Prime Minister’s Office. The parliamentary cooperation agreement announced last month involves the 25 NDP MPs agreeing to keep the minority government in power until June, 2025, in exchange for action on various NDP policy priorities.
WANTED: NEW PARLIAMENTARY POET LAUREATE – The Parliament of Canada is accepting nominations for its tenth Parliamentary poet laureate, the Library of Parliament announced earlier this week. First created in 2001, the position mainly involves writing poetry for use in Parliament or other special occasions, said Meredith Savka, program authority of the poet laureate program.
Poet laureates ultimately determine the activities they take part in, she said, which can include sponsoring poetry readings, advising the Parliamentary library on collections and acquisitions to help enrich cultural material, and performing other duties at the request of Parliament speakers.
“Based on what other poets have told me, I’d say that this is a great opportunity for a poet to help raise the profile of poetry within Canada,” Ms. Savka added.
Canada’s current poet laureate, Louise Bernice Halfe, also known by her Cree name Sky Dancer, is the first to hail from an Indigenous community. Some of her work as a laureate has seen her performing poetry readings and writing poetry at the request of parliamentarians, including a poem for Governor-General Mary Simon’s installation ceremony.
Appointed for a two-year term, poet laureates are usually located and work out of their home province. They receive an annual $20,000 stipend and a budget for travelling and other programming or administrative expenses.
The role alternates between Canada’s official languages every term, with the upcoming candidate expected to work predominantly in French. The deadline for nominations is July 10, with a decision expected to be made later this year or in early 2023. (Safiyah Marhnouj)
THE DECIBEL
On Thursday’s edition of The Globe and Mail podcast: The Globe’s U.S. correspondent, Nathan VanderKlippe, is getting the full picture from the ground in Bucha and Chernihiv. He tells us what it’s like in these two cities where the Russian army has destroyed buildings and killed civilians during the invasion of Ukraine. Plus, we hear from a police officer in Chernihiv, Oksana Ohnenko, on her efforts to help the people of her city and her perspective on what it’s been like living through this war. The Decibel is here.
PRIME MINISTER’S DAY
The Prime Minister attended private meetings, spoke with Argentinian President Alberto Fernández, and was scheduled to chair the cabinet meeting. The Prime Minister was also expected to participate in a budget photo opportunity with Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and attend the budget speech delivered by Ms. Freeland in the House of Commons
LEADERS
Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet holds a media availability on Thursday on the federal government’s approval of the Bay du Nord project.
Conservative Party interim Leader Candice Bergen held a media availability to discuss the federal budget.
Green Party interim Leader Amita Kuttner reacts, on Parliament Hill, to federal budget.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is scheduled to attend the tabling of the budget in the House of Commons and then respond to the budget.
TRIBUTE
KILGOUR DIES – David Kilgour, a former cabinet minister known in Ottawa for his fierce independent streak and dedication to human rights causes, has died at 81. Story here from CBC.
OPINION
David Parkinson (The Globe and Mail)on how the dose of discipline is the unsexy necessity of the Liberal budget: “Bringing Ottawa’s deficit back down to size might not carry the same heroic cachet as rapidly expanding it to stare down a pandemic. But the task might be nearly as important for the country’s long-term economic health – and more urgent than some policy makers would like to think. The federal government goes into Thursday’s budget coming off a year in which it planned for a deficit of $145-billion (based on its mid-December update). While that is less than half the size of the previous year’s deficit, it’s many multiples larger than the $20-billion or so that this same government targeted in the years prior to the pandemic.”
Konrad Yakabuski (The Globe and Mail)on what federal Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault isn’t saying about Ottawa’s plan to slash oil sector emissions: “The United Nations Secretary-General did not beat around the bushes in identifying the villains that are holding up efforts to cut greenhouse gases after the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released its latest report identifying pathways to decarbonation. “Climate activists are sometimes depicted as dangerous radicals, but the truly dangerous radicals are the countries that are increasing the production of fossil fuels,” Antonio Guterres said on Monday, as the IPCC warned overall carbon emissions would need to peak by 2025 and fall by 43 per cent by 2030 to prevent global warming from exceeding 1.5 C. “Investing in new fossil fuels infrastructure is moral and economic madness.” For Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and former climate activist turned Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault, the IPCC report complicates the balancing act of meeting Canada’s own climate targets while still allowing oil and gas production to increase.”
Christine Smith-Martin and Marilyn Slett (Contributed to The Globe and Mail) on how rebuilding fisheries and wild fish stocks for coastal First Nations would be reconciliation in action: “Canada’s federal government talks a big game when it comes to reconciliation – always with a capital “R” for emphasis and importance. But when it comes to moving from words to action, that big game often slows to a snail’s pace. For First Nations in the North Pacific Coast, one historical challenge has been the decline of fisheries that we rely on – owing to Canada’s unsustainable management practices.”
Mark Zelmer and Jeremy Kronick (Contributed to The Globe and Mail) on whether cryptocurrency can protect you from inflation: “Canadians will be disappointed, however, if they think that holding and transacting in crypto assets will save them from inflation. Assets such as bitcoin and ethereum have no intrinsic value. Their prices, or exchange rates if you like, are extremely volatile from day to day and week to week, with daily price swings of up to 30 per cent not uncommon. That would make it very difficult for any business to price its goods and services or for Canadians to have confidence in the value of their savings.”
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NEW YORK (AP) — In a new video posted early Election Day, Beyoncé channels Pamela Anderson in the television program “Baywatch” – red one-piece swimsuit and all – and asks viewers to vote.
In the two-and-a-half-minute clip, set to most of “Bodyguard,” a four-minute cut from her 2024 country album “Cowboy Carter,” Beyoncé cosplays as Anderson’s character before concluding with a simple message, written in white text: “Happy Beylloween,” followed by “Vote.”
At a rally for Donald Trump in Pittsburgh on Monday night, the former president spoke dismissively about Beyoncé’s appearance at a Kamala Harris rally in Houston in October, drawing boos for the megastar from his supporters.
“Beyoncé would come in. Everyone’s expecting a couple of songs. There were no songs. There was no happiness,” Trump said.
She did not perform — unlike in 2016, when she performed at a presidential campaign rally for Hillary Clinton in Cleveland – but she endorsed Harris and gave a moving speech, initially joined onstage by her Destiny’s Child bandmate Kelly Rowland.
“I’m not here as a celebrity, I’m not here as a politician. I’m here as a mother,” Beyoncé said.
“A mother who cares deeply about the world my children and all of our children live in, a world where we have the freedom to control our bodies, a world where we’re not divided,” she said at the rally in Houston, her hometown.
“Imagine our daughters growing up seeing what’s possible with no ceilings, no limitations,” she continued. “We must vote, and we need you.”
Harris used the song in July during her first official public appearance as a presidential candidate at her campaign headquarters in Delaware. That same month, Beyoncé’s mother, Tina Knowles, publicly endorsed Harris for president.
Beyoncé gave permission to Harris to use the song, a campaign official who was granted anonymity to discuss private campaign operations confirmed to The Associated Press.
Outside of sports and a “Cold front coming down from Canada,” American news media only report on Canadian events that they believe are, or will be, influential to the US. Therefore, when Justin Trudeau’s announcement, having finally read the room, that Canada will be reducing the number of permanent residents admitted by more than 20 percent and temporary residents like skilled workers and college students will be cut by more than half made news south of the border, I knew the American media felt Trudeau’s about-face on immigration was newsworthy because many Americans would relate to Trudeau realizing Canada was accepting more immigrants than it could manage and are hoping their next POTUS will follow Trudeau’s playbook.
Canada, with lots of space and lacking convenient geographical ways for illegal immigrants to enter the country, though still many do, has a global reputation for being incredibly accepting of immigrants. On the surface, Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver appear to be multicultural havens. However, as the saying goes, “Too much of a good thing is never good,” resulting in a sharp rise in anti-immigrant sentiment, which you can almost taste in the air. A growing number of Canadians, regardless of their political affiliation, are blaming recent immigrants for causing the housing affordability crises, inflation, rise in crime and unemployment/stagnant wages.
Throughout history, populations have engulfed themselves in a tribal frenzy, a psychological state where people identify strongly with their own group, often leading to a ‘us versus them’ mentality. This has led to quick shifts from complacency to panic and finger-pointing at groups outside their tribe, a phenomenon that is not unique to any particular culture or time period.
My take on why the American news media found Trudeau’s blatantly obvious attempt to save his political career, balancing appeasement between the pitchfork crowd, who want a halt to immigration until Canada gets its house in order, and immigrant voters, who traditionally vote Liberal, newsworthy; the American news media, as do I, believe immigration fatigue is why Kamala Harris is going to lose on November 5th.
Because they frequently get the outcome wrong, I don’t take polls seriously. According to polls in 2014, Tim Hudak’s Progressive Conservatives and Kathleen Wynne’s Liberals were in a dead heat in Ontario, yet Wynne won with more than twice as many seats. In the 2018 Quebec election, most polls had the Coalition Avenir Québec with a 1-to-5-point lead over the governing Liberals. The result: The Coalition Avenir Québec enjoyed a landslide victory, winning 74 of 125 seats. Then there’s how the 2016 US election polls showing Donald Trump didn’t have a chance of winning against Hillary Clinton were ridiculously way off, highlighting the importance of the election day poll and, applicable in this election as it was in 2016, not to discount ‘shy Trump supporters;’ voters who support Trump but are hesitant to express their views publicly due to social or political pressure.
My distrust in polls aside, polls indicate Harris is leading by a few points. One would think that Trump’s many over-the-top shenanigans, which would be entertaining were he not the POTUS or again seeking the Oval Office, would have him far down in the polls. Trump is toe-to-toe with Harris in the polls because his approach to the economy—middle-class Americans are nostalgic for the relatively strong economic performance during Trump’s first three years in office—and immigration, which Americans are hyper-focused on right now, appeals to many Americans. In his quest to win votes, Trump is doing what anyone seeking political office needs to do: telling the people what they want to hear, strategically using populism—populism that serves your best interests is good populism—to evoke emotional responses. Harris isn’t doing herself any favours, nor moving voters, by going the “But, but… the orange man is bad!” route, while Trump cultivates support from “weird” marginal voting groups.
To Harris’s credit, things could have fallen apart when Biden abruptly stepped aside. Instead, Harris quickly clinched the nomination and had a strong first few weeks, erasing the deficit Biden had given her. The Democratic convention was a success, as was her acceptance speech. Her performance at the September 10th debate with Donald Trump was first-rate.
Harris’ Achilles heel is she’s now making promises she could have made and implemented while VP, making immigration and the economy Harris’ liabilities, especially since she’s been sitting next to Biden, watching the US turn into the circus it has become. These liabilities, basically her only liabilities, negate her stance on abortion, democracy, healthcare, a long-winning issue for Democrats, and Trump’s character. All Harris has offered voters is “feel-good vibes” over substance. In contrast, Trump offers the tangible political tornado (read: steamroll the problems Americans are facing) many Americans seek. With Trump, there’s no doubt that change, admittedly in a messy fashion, will happen. If enough Americans believe the changes he’ll implement will benefit them and their country…
The case against Harris on immigration, at a time when there’s a huge global backlash to immigration, even as the American news media are pointing out, in famously immigrant-friendly Canada, is relatively straightforward: During the first three years of the Biden-Harris administration, illegal Southern border crossings increased significantly.
The words illegal immigration, to put it mildly, irks most Americans. On the legal immigration front, according to Forbes, most billion-dollar startups were founded by immigrants. Google, Microsoft, and Oracle, to name three, have immigrants as CEOs. Immigrants, with tech skills and an entrepreneurial thirst, have kept America leading the world. I like to think that Americans and Canadians understand the best immigration policy is to strategically let enough of these immigrants in who’ll increase GDP and tax base and not rely on social programs. In other words, Americans and Canadians, and arguably citizens of European countries, expect their governments to be more strategic about immigration.
The days of the words on a bronze plaque mounted inside the Statue of Liberty pedestal’s lower level, “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free…” are no longer tolerated. Americans only want immigrants who’ll benefit America.
Does Trump demagogue the immigration issue with xenophobic and racist tropes, many of which are outright lies, such as claiming Haitian immigrants in Ohio are abducting and eating pets? Absolutely. However, such unhinged talk signals to Americans who are worried about the steady influx of illegal immigrants into their country that Trump can handle immigration so that it’s beneficial to the country as opposed to being an issue of economic stress.
In many ways, if polls are to be believed, Harris is paying the price for Biden and her lax policies early in their term. Yes, stimulus spending quickly rebuilt the job market, but at the cost of higher inflation. Loosen border policies at a time when anti-immigrant sentiment was increasing was a gross miscalculation, much like Trudeau’s immigration quota increase, and Biden indulging himself in running for re-election should never have happened.
If Trump wins, Democrats will proclaim that everyone is sexist, racist and misogynous, not to mention a likely White Supremacist, and for good measure, they’ll beat the “voter suppression” button. If Harris wins, Trump supporters will repeat voter fraud—since July, Elon Musk has tweeted on Twitter at least 22 times about voters being “imported” from abroad—being widespread.
Regardless of who wins tomorrow, Americans need to cool down; and give the divisive rhetoric a long overdue break. The right to an opinion belongs to everyone. Someone whose opinion differs from yours is not by default sexist, racist, a fascist or anything else; they simply disagree with you. Americans adopting the respectful mindset to agree to disagree would be the best thing they could do for the United States of America.
PHOENIX (AP) — Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent proponent of debunked public health claims whom Donald Trump has promised to put in charge of health initiatives, said Saturday that Trump would push to remove fluoride from drinking water on his first day in office if elected president.
Fluoride strengthens teeth and reduces cavities by replacing minerals lost during normal wear and tear, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The addition of low levels of fluoride to drinking water has long been considered one of the greatest public health achievements of the last century.
Kennedy made the declaration Saturday on the social media platform X alongside a variety of claims about the heath effects of fluoride.
“On January 20, the Trump White House will advise all U.S. water systems to remove fluoride from public water,” Kennedy wrote. Trump and his wife, Melania Trump, “want to Make America Healthy Again,” he added, repeating a phrase Trump often uses and links to Kennedy.
Trump told NBC News on Sunday that he had not spoken to Kennedy about fluoride yet, “but it sounds OK to me. You know it’s possible.”
The former president declined to say whether he would seek a Cabinet role for Kennedy, a job that would require Senate confirmation, but added, “He’s going to have a big role in the administration.”
Asked whether banning certain vaccines would be on the table, Trump said he would talk to Kennedy and others about that. Trump described Kennedy as “a very talented guy and has strong views.”
The sudden and unexpected weekend social media post evoked the chaotic policymaking that defined Trump’s White House tenure, when he would issue policy declarations on Twitter at virtually all hours. It also underscored the concerns many experts have about Kennedy, who has long promoted debunked theories about vaccine safety, having influence over U.S. public health.
In 1950, federal officials endorsed water fluoridation to prevent tooth decay, and continued to promote it even after fluoride toothpaste brands hit the market several years later. Though fluoride can come from a number of sources, drinking water is the main source for Americans, researchers say.
Officials lowered their recommendation for drinking water fluoride levels in 2015 to address a tooth condition called fluorosis, that can cause splotches on teeth and was becoming more common in U.S. kids.
In August, a federal agency determined “with moderate confidence” that there is a link between higher levels of fluoride exposure and lower IQ in kids. The National Toxicology Program based its conclusion on studies involving fluoride levels at about twice the recommended limit for drinking water.
A federal judge later cited that study in ordering the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to further regulate fluoride in drinking water. U.S. District Judge Edward Chen cautioned that it’s not certain that the amount of fluoride typically added to water is causing lower IQ in kids, but he concluded that mounting research points to an unreasonable risk that it could be. He ordered the EPA to take steps to lower that risk, but didn’t say what those measures should be.
In his X post Saturday, Kennedy tagged Michael Connett, the lead attorney representing the plaintiff in that lawsuit, the environmental advocacy group Food & Water Watch.
Kennedy’s anti-vaccine organization has a lawsuit pending against news organizations including The Associated Press, accusing them of violating antitrust laws by taking action to identify misinformation, including about COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccines. Kennedy is on leave from the group but is listed as one of its attorneys in the lawsuit.
What role Kennedy might hold if Trump wins on Tuesday remains unclear. Kennedy recently told NewsNation that Trump asked him to “reorganize” agencies including the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institutes of Health, the Food and Drug Administration and some agencies under the Department of Agriculture.
But for now, the former independent presidential candidate has become one of Trump’s top surrogates. Trump frequently mentions having the support of Kennedy, a scion of a Democratic dynasty and the son of former Attorney General Robert Kennedy and nephew of President John F. Kennedy.
Kennedy traveled with Trump Friday and spoke at his rallies in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Trump said Saturday that he told Kennedy: “You can work on food, you can work on anything you want” except oil policy.
“He wants health, he wants women’s health, he wants men’s health, he wants kids, he wants everything,” Trump added.
