Harper’s endorsement of Poilievre changes the race, pollster says

Hello,

Former prime minister Stephen Harper’s declaration of support for Pierre Poilievre as leader of the Conservative Party is being described as a game-changing event in the race.

Pollster Nik Nanos said Tuesday that Mr. Harper’s endorsement in a video message you can watch here sets the stage for the political showdown between the Liberals and Conservatives in the next federal election.

“The Harper endorsement is an acknowledgment that Poilievre is the likely leadership winner and Harper legacy inheritor,” the chief data scientist at Nanos Research said in a statement.

“An endorsement by Harper is a powerful signal within the Conservative movement. The same endorsement could very well fire up and mobilize progressives during the next election.”

In his posting Monday night, Mr. Harper, who has previously avoided comment about Conservative leadership races, said the five candidates in the race constitute a “strong field” but that Mr. Poilievre, whom he described as a “strong minister” in his government, is the best prospect for leadership.

“I know, of course, that others, including some of my friends, may disagree with me, and I respect their views, but I thought you would like to know what my opinion actually is,” Mr. Harper said.

Mr. Harper was the first leader of the current Conservative Party of Canada, formed in 2003 with the merger of the Progressive Conservative Party of Canada and the Canadian Alliance. He was prime minister from 2006 until Justin Trudeau led the Liberals to victory in 2015. Mr. Harper has been the only member of the new party to serve as prime minister.

Conservative commentator Tim Powers, the chairman of public affairs consulting firm Summa Strategies, said he was hard-pressed to remember an occasion when a past prime minister has publicly endorsed a candidate in a leadership race.

“That’s probably not just a statement on Mr. Harper’s comfort with Pierre Poilievre but also a statement about what he may perceive as uncertainty about the future of the Conservative Party,” said Mr. Powers.

He said Mr. Harper may be trying to tell people who voted for him that they can be comfortable with Mr. Poilievre despite controversies over the Ottawa MP “cuddling with convoys and promoting crypto and booting bank governors,” referring to some of the candidate’s pronouncements.

There are five candidates in the race for the leadership: a winner will be announced on Sept. 10. The candidates are Mr. Poilievre and fellow Ontario MPs Scott Aitchison and Leslyn Lewis, as well as one-time Quebec premier Jean Charest and Roman Baber, a former Progressive Conservative member of the Ontario legislature.

In a statement, Mr. Charest called Mr. Harper’s endorsement of Mr. Poilievre a “personal choice,” and noted that Conservatives win when united and Mr. Harper was successful in uniting the Conservative Party. “As the leader of the CPC, I commit to doing the same.”

Other campaigns had not responded by Tuesday afternoon to requests for comment.

This is the daily Politics Briefing newsletter, written by Ian Bailey.