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Politics Briefing: It's election day – the shape of Canada's 44th Parliament is now in the hands of voters – The Globe and Mail

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The shape of Canada’s 44th Parliament is in the hands of voters today as the snap 2021 federal election campaign comes to a close.

The daily diet of news conferences from party leaders is over as Monday’s public agenda is largely focused on photo ops at polling stations. Parties are now spending the last few hours of the campaign working to get their supporters to the polls. While much of the public and media attention during a campaign is focused on the so-called “air war” of messages from leaders, voting day is when the parties can prove the effectiveness of their ground game.

Thousands of volunteers for each party in each riding have spent the past few weeks knocking on doors and working the phones, building up databases that identify their potential supporters. The work of reminding those supporters to cast their ballots can give parties a slight edge if they can be more successful than their competition at encouraging their supporters to turnout. The turnout factor – which can be tied to how motivated voters are for their preferred choice – is one of the main caveats listed by pollsters as they make their final projections.

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The Globe and Mail will have extensive coverage of the election results as they come in Monday night, including a live results page. Our Ottawa bureau is covering the party leaders at their election-night headquarters, while Globe reporters in bureaus across the country will provide regional analysis of the results.

For a refresher on where the parties stand on key issues, a platform guide compiled by Globe and Mail staff can be found here.

Hello,

This is the daily Politics Briefing newsletter, written by Ian Bailey. Filling in today is Bill Curry. It is available exclusively to our digital subscribers. If you’re reading this on the web, subscribers can sign up for the Politics newsletter and more than 20 others on our newsletter signup page. Have any feedback? Let us know what you think.

TODAY’S HEADLINES

IT’S NECK AND NECK BETWEEN THE LIBERALS, CONSERVATIVES AS VOTERS HEAD TO THE POLLS: The three major party leaders spent their last hours on the campaign trail Sunday stumping in key battlegrounds, making their final pitches to voters in a short and divisive campaign in which no party has managed to swing momentum its way.

Heading into election day, Justin Trudeau’s Liberals and Erin O’Toole’s Conservatives are in a dead heat nationally, according to Nanos Research polling released on Sunday.

ERIN O’TOOLE SIDESTEPS QUESTIONS ABOUT CONSERVATIVE PARTY’S NON-DISCLOSURE ON VACCINATIONS: Federal Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole says the Tories are running a safe campaign during a pandemic, but he is refusing to elaborate on the party’s refusal to release information on the vaccination status of candidates.

During a news conference Saturday in the Hamilton-area district of Flamborough, Ont., Mr. O’Toole faced multiple questions about why the vast majority of Conservative candidates are not disclosing whether they have been vaccinated.

LIBERALS REMOVE TORONTO CANDIDATE IN FINAL DAYS OF CAMPAIGN: The Liberal Party said this weekend it would remove a candidate after a dropped sexual assault charge against him was revealed, as leader Justin Trudeau campaigned in the Greater Toronto Area as part of final get-out-the-vote efforts.

IN PITCH TO PROGRESSIVES, JAGMEET SINGH TOUTS CLIMATE PLAN, COMMITMENT TO DIVERSITY AS ELECTION DAY LOOMS: In a final push to win seats in Western Canada, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh on Saturday stopped in five cities in Saskatchewan, Alberta and B.C., where the party hopes ridings could flip orange in Monday’s federal election.

LEADERS

Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau will vote Monday morning in the Montreal riding of Papineau, where he is seeking re-election.

Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole will vote in Bowmanville, Ont., Monday morning, where he is seeking re-election in the riding of Durham. The Conservative Party’s election night headquarters is at a community centre in Oshawa, where Mr. O’Toole will speak late Monday to comment on the results.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is in the B.C. riding of Burnaby South, where he is seeking re-election.

Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet has a busy public schedule Monday, with stops to support Bloc candidates in Saint-Hubert, Châteauguay and the Montreal area. He will be at the Bloc’s election-night headquarters in Montreal to watch the results come in.

Green Party Leader Annamie Paul has already voted by mail, but has a morning photo op at her campaign headquarters in the riding of Toronto Centre, where she is seeking to unseat the Liberal incumbent, Marci Ien.

People’s Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier is in Saskatoon, for election night, even though he is running as a candidate in the Quebec riding of Beauce.

OPINION

Campbell Clark (The Globe and Mail) writes that party leaders didn’t offer much in the way of inspiration or incentive this federal election: “After 18 months of pandemic and everyday talk about what parts of life have changed forever, you would think that a national election campaign would have featured politicians making compelling cases about the direction for the country through a crisis and beyond.

Yet as voting day 2021 arrives, that’s the thing that’s still missing. This was a campaign where party leaders focused so much on why you shouldn’t vote for the other candidate that they largely neglected to provide a good reason to vote for them. In a sense, they have left voters alone to find one.”

Andrew Coyne (The Globe and Mail) writes that this was no ordinary election, but perhaps not ‘important’: “If the polls are to be believed, we have all just wasted five weeks of our lives. An election that, in law, should never have been called, the reason for which has never been adequately explained, limped through a listless campaign on track to producing a Parliament remarkably like the one it was supposed to replace. The “most important election since 1945,” according to Justin Trudeau, might as well never have happened.”

Lynne Groulx (Globe and Mail contributor and chief executive officer of the Native Women’s Association of Canada) writes that Indigenous issues are, in fact, pivotal in this election: “There has been a collective awakening and a call to consciousness happening in Canada. Indigenous people are no longer a small group fighting on their own. Others have joined us in numbers large enough to have an impact on the outcome of this election.

Political leaders would be wise to pay attention to that awakening, both before and after election day. Otherwise, they may very well find themselves seated in their living rooms watching parliamentary debates, rather than participating in them.”

The Globe and Mail editorial board on the importance of voting: “In an election that seems likely to produce another minority government, every seat will be critical. And, consequently, so will every vote.

Before the campaign began, an Elections Canada survey found that 67.8 per cent of eligible voters said they were certain to cast a ballot, if the conditions were right. And an estimated 5.78-million electors voted at advance polls last week – a record number, and an 18.5 per cent increase over 2019.

The record-setting turnout at advance polls shows that, despite the challenges, our fellow citizens are eager to exercise their democratic rights. If you haven’t voted yet, then Monday, Election Day, is your last chance.”

Got a news tip that you’d like us to look into? E-mail us at tips@globeandmail.com. Need to share documents securely? Reach out via SecureDrop

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Pecker’s Trump Trial Testimony Is a Lesson in Power Politics

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David Pecker, convivial, accommodating and as bright as a button, sat in the witness stand in a Manhattan courtroom on Tuesday and described how power is used and abused.

“What I would do is publish positive stories about Mr. Trump,” the former tabloid hegemon and fabulist allowed, as if he was sharing some of his favorite dessert recipes. “And I would publish negative stories about his opponents.”

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Opinion: Fear the politicization of pensions, no matter the politician

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Open this photo in gallery:

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland don’t have a lot in common. But they do share at least one view: that governments could play a bigger role directing pension investments to the benefit of domestic industries and economic priorities.

Canadians, no matter who they vote for, should be worried that these two political heavyweights share any common ground in this regard.

It became clearer in the federal budget last week as Ottawa appointed former Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz to lead a working group to explore “how to catalyze greater domestic investment opportunities for Canadian pension funds.” The group will examine how Canadian pension funds can spur innovation and drive economic growth, while still meeting fiduciary and actuarial responsibilities.

This idea has been in discussion since it was highlighted in the fall economic statement. In March, dozens of chief executives signed an open letter urging federal and provincial finance ministers to “amend the rules governing pension funds to encourage them to invest in Canada.”

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Rewind to last fall, and it was Alberta’s plans that were dominating controversial pension discussions. As Ms. Smith championed Alberta going it alone, Canadians (including Albertans) were dumbfounded by her government’s claim the province could be entitled to 53 per cent of Canada Pension Plan assets – $334-billion of the plan’s expected $575-billion by 2027. The Premier has made the argument that starting with this nest egg, and with the province’s large working-age population, a separate Alberta plan could provide more in the way of benefits to seniors with lower premiums.

The main point of contention between the Smith government and Justin Trudeau’s Liberals has been what amount Alberta would take, should it exit the Canada Pension Plan. All parties are now waiting on Ottawa’s counter assessment; the Office of the Chief Actuary will provide a calculation sometime this fall.

But lost in this furious debate over that dollar amount is Ms. Smith’s desire to see the province have a say in how the pension contributions of Albertans are invested. The Premier has long expressed frustration that Canadian pension funds were being influenced by fossil-fuel divestment movements, and has suggested a separate Alberta pension plan could be a counterweight to this.

In addition, a key part of the promise for many supporters of the Alberta pension plan idea – including former premier Jason Kenney and pension panel chair Jim Dinning – has been the benefits that would accrue to the province’s financial services sector.

But just as the UCP government might see the potential of using the heft of pension assets to bolster the province’s energy sector, or to spur white-collar jobs in Calgary, the federal Liberals would like see more pension dollars directed toward Canadian AI, digital infrastructure and housing. These are some of the areas Ms. Freeland has directed Mr. Poloz’s working group to focus on.

Some would deem Mr. Freeland’s goals admirable. Tax dollars are already flowing to these sectors. It comes at a time of increasing concern about the housing crunch, Canada’s weak GDP numbers, and the fact that Canada’s economy is being carried along by strong population growth.

But many Canadians are already concerned with government priorities and federal spending. Many more would balk at governments picking winning industries with pension contributions. And governments change. A Conservative government, for instance, might have very different industries in mind for its own pension-fund working group – say, for instance, to make sure Canada doesn’t cede oil market share to Venezuela or the United States.

This pension working group is a convenient sweetener for a business community that has in many ways soured on this Liberal government. It comes at a moment when Ottawa is facing pushback – from technology entrepreneurs to doctors – to its proposed capital-gains tax hike.

It doesn’t appear Ottawa wants to go as far as recreating the CPP in the image of the Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, which has a formal mandate that includes contributing to the province’s economic development. And this isn’t to say there’s such a thing as complete neutrality in pension management now. The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board makes decisions open to debate and criticism. It should hear what governments and industry have to say, and setting up a couple of regional offices, beyond Toronto, could be helpful.

But if pension plans are formally burdened with policy imperatives from politicians, it could distract from the main goals of reasonable premiums and retirement security for Canadians. It could see the prioritization of being re-elected over returns. The regional and sectoral tug-of-wars over the cash would be never-ending.

There’s good reason to fear what an Alberta government would do should it take control of its citizens’ pension wealth. The same is most definitely true for Ottawa.

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Politics Briefing: Saskatchewan residents to get carbon rebates despite province's opposition to pricing program – The Globe and Mail

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Hello,

The federal government will continue to deliver the carbon rebate to residents of Saskatchewan despite the province’s move to stop collecting and remitting the levy, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said today.

In January, Saskatchewan’s Crown natural gas and electric utilities removed the federal carbon price from home heating bills, a move that the government says will improve fairness for its residents in relation to the other provinces.

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But Trudeau told a news conference in Saskatoon today that payments to residents won’t stop and that the Canada Revenue Agency has ways of ensuring money owed to them is eventually collected. He said he has faith in the “rigorous” quasi-judicial proceedings the agency uses.

In Ottawa, Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault accused Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, who is opposed to federal carbon pricing policy, of playing politics with climate change.

“The Prime Minister, and I think cabinet, felt that it wouldn’t be fair for the people of Saskatchewan to pay for the irresponsible attitude of the provincial government,” Guilbeault told a news conference.

The rebate is available to residents of provinces and territories where the federal carbon pricing system applies.

Trudeau was in Saskatoon to announce that the federal government is offering $5-billion in loan guarantees to support Indigenous communities seeking ownership stakes in natural resource and energy projects.

This is the daily Politics Briefing newsletter, written by Ian Bailey. It is available exclusively to our digital subscribers. If you’re reading this on the web, subscribers can sign up for the Politics newsletter and more than 20 others on our newsletter signup page. Have any feedback? Let us know what you think.

TODAY’S HEADLINES

Motion to allow keffiyehs in Ontario legislature fails again: A few Ontario government members blocked a move to permit keffiyehs in the legislature, prompting some people watching Question Period from the public galleries to put on the scarves.

B.C. puts social-media harms bill on hold: Premier David Eby issued a joint statement today with representatives from Meta, TikTok, Snap and X to say they have reached an agreement to work to help young people stay safe online through a new BC Online Safety Action Table.

Changes to capital-gains tax may prompt doctors to quit, CMA warns: Kathleen Ross, the president of Canadian Medical Association, said the tax measure “really is one more hit to an already beleaguered and low-morale profession.”

Thunder Bay Indigenous group wants province to dissolve the municipal police force: Grand Chief Alvin Fiddler, from the Nishnawbe Aski Nation, said that after years of turmoil, the Thunder Bay force has not earned the trust of the Indigenous people it serves.

Canada Post refusing to collect banned guns for Ottawa’s buyback program: CBC says the Crown corporation’s position is complicating Ottawa’s plans for a buyback program to remove 144,000 firearms from private hands, federal sources say.

Ottawa police investigating chant on Parliament Hill glorifying Hamas Oct. 7 attack: Police Chief Eric Stubbs acknowledged it can sometimes be difficult to discern what constitutes a hate crime as he confirmed his force is investigating a pro-Palestinian protest over the weekend on Parliament Hill.

TODAY’S POLITICAL QUOTES

“I don’t take any lessons from the Leader of the Opposition when it comes to how marginalized people feel. I’m an Italian Canadian, who, in the 1970s, was spit on.” – Ontario Government House Leader Paul Calandra in the legislature today.

“I’ve spoken with some of my peers from all around the world. All of us would be challenged to find an environment minister somewhere in the world that would tell you: Easy peasy fighting climate change.” – Federal Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault at a news conference in Ottawa today as international talks in the city proceed to deal with plastics pollution,

THIS AND THAT

Commons, Senate: The House of Commons is on a break until April 29. The Senate sits again April 30.

Deputy Prime Minister’s day: Chrystia Freeland participated in a fireside chat on the budget, then took media questions.

Ministers on the road: With the Commons on a break, ministers continued to fan out across Canada to talk about the budget. Today, the emphasis was largely on the budget and Indigenous reconciliation. Citizens’ Services Minister Terry Beech, with Health Minister Mark Holland, made an Indigenous reconciliation announcement in the B.C. community of Sechelt. Defence Minister Bill Blair is on a three-day visit to the Northwest Territories. Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault is in Edmonton to make an announcement on Indigenous reconciliation. Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne was in the Quebec city of La Tuque. Public Services Minister Jean-Yves Duclos is in Quebec City, focusing on the budget and Indigenous reconciliation. Indigenous Services Minister Patty Hajdu in Vancouver addressing Indigenous reconciliation. Families Minister Jenna Sudds is in Thunder Bay. King’s Privy Council President Harjit Sajjan and Justice Minister Arif Virani touted the budget in an event in Coquitlam, B.C.

Vidal out: Conservative MP Gary Vidal has announced he won’t run in the next election owing to dramatic changes in the Saskatchewan riding he has represented since 2019 that will mean he will no longer be living there. Also, he noted in a posting on social-media platform X that the Conservatives are not allowing an open nomination in the riding he will be living in. “Although this is not the expected outcome I anticipated, circumstances beyond the control of myself and my team have dictated that I move on after the next election,” he wrote.

GG in Saskatchewan: Mary Simon and her partner, Whit Fraser, continued their visit to the province, with stops in Regina that included a stop at the Regina Open Door Society, which provides settlement and integration services to refugees and immigrants. Later, she engaged in a round-table discussion with mental-health specialists on issues affecting Canada’s farming and ranching communities.

New CEO for Pearson Centre for Progressive Policy: George Young is the new chief executive officer of the think tank on progressive issues. The former national director of the federal Liberal party under Jean Chrétien served as a chief of staff to several Chrétien ministers, was a senior adviser to former Ottawa Mayor Jim Watson.

PRIME MINISTER’S DAY

Justin Trudeau was in Saskatoon for a news conference on budget measures.

LEADERS

Green Party Leader Elizabeth May is in Ottawa to attend a session of the United Nations Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee on plastic pollution.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, in Edmonton, went door-knocking in the city with Edmonton Centre candidate Trisha Estabrooks.

No schedules released for Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre.

THE DECIBEL

On today’s podcast, Nathan VanderKlippe, The Globe’s international correspondent, discussed what has been happening on West Bank farmlands during the Israel-Hamas war. The Decibel is here.

PUBLIC OPINION

Liberals not an option: A third of Canadians surveyed by Ipsos Global Public Affairs say they would never vote Liberal in the next federal election.

No budget lift: Nanos Research says the federal Tories have a 19-point lead over the Liberals despite the release of a budget the government hoped would improve its political fortunes.

CAQ running third: Quebec’s governing Coalition Avenir Québec party has, in a new poll, fallen to third place in public support behind the Parti Québécois and the Liberals, The Gazette in Montreal reports.

OPINION

The Liberals promise billions for clean power. Don’t undermine it with politics

“In the summer of 2022, U.S. President Joe Biden’s ambition to deliver landmark climate legislation looked like it was dead – until the plan experienced a sudden political resurrection on Capitol Hill. The machinations in Washington have reverberated in Ottawa ever since.” – The Globe and Mail Editorial Board

The Liberals’ immigration policies have accomplished the opposite of what was intended

“In its well-meaning effort to encourage the migration of international students to Canada, the Trudeau government is turning swaths of our postsecondary education system into a grift. As a result, broad public support for immigration, the foundation stone of multicultural Canada, is eroding.” – John Ibbitson

Canada’s underwhelming disability benefit is a sign of a government out of ideas

“The Canada Disability Benefit had – and still has – the potential to be a generational game-changer. Done right, it could lift hundreds of thousands of Canadians out of poverty. But what the Liberal government has delivered so far is a colossal betrayal of the promise made to those living with physical, developmental and psychiatric disabilities: a program with a paltry payout and a limited scope, and bogged down in red tape.” – André Picard

Got a news tip that you’d like us to look into? E-mail us at tips@globeandmail.com. Need to share documents securely? Reach out via SecureDrop.

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