The travel patterns of the party leaders make one thing clear: Federal elections are won and lost in the Greater Toronto Area, Quebec and British Columbia’s Lower Mainland.
To provide a more in-depth look at those key battlegrounds, Nanos Research combined its daily polling data over the past five days to produce larger sample sizes for regional battles. The five days cover Sept. 10 to 14, meaning all surveys were conducted after the Sept. 9 English-language leaders’ debate.
The results show the Liberals are well ahead in the GTA, but are essentially tied with the Conservatives in the rest of the province. For Ontario as a whole, the Liberals hold a 10-point lead with 40 per cent support, followed by the Conservatives at 30 per cent, the NDP at 20 per cent, the People’s Party at 7 per cent and the Greens at 3 per cent. The province-wide numbers are based on a sample size of 588 and have a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
In Quebec, the Liberals are slightly in front at 32 per cent, followed by the Bloc Québécois at 28 per cent, the Conservatives at 18 per cent, the NDP at 15 per cent, the People’s Party at 4 per cent and the Greens at 3 per cent. That is based on a sample size of 447 respondents, with a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
In British Columbia, the Conservatives lead with 30 per cent support, followed by the Liberals at 28 per cent, the NDP at 26 per cent and the Greens and People’s Party tied at 8 per cent. That is based on a sample size of 300 respondents and has a margin of error of 5.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The polling data was collected as part of a daily tracking survey commissioned by The Globe and Mail and CTV News.
The Globe and Mail’s Marieke Walsh reports on the poll results here, including methodology and how pollster Nik Nanos is interpreting the data with just a few days left before election day on Monday.
Hello,
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TODAY’S HEADLINES
TRUDEAU, O’TOOLE, SINGH CALL FOR APOLOGY OVER BILL 21 ENGLISH DEBATE QUESTION: All three major party leaders are calling for an apology from the consortium of media broadcasters that oversees the federal election debates over a question about Quebec laws during the recent English-language debate.
The question, posed by moderator Shachi Kurl to Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet during the Sept. 9 debate, has set off a firestorm of criticism in Quebec, including a unanimous call from the provincial National Assembly for a formal apology for the “hostile” views expressed “against the Quebec nation.” A report by the Globe and Mail’s election team is here.
CHRÉTIEN APPEARS ON CAMPAIGN TRAIL: Former prime minister Jean Chrétien made an appearance in support of Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau on the campaign trail, touting the Liberal government’s record as the party looks to gain ground in a competitive electoral race with less than a week to go until election day.
In a speech Tuesday evening to a packed room of about 400 supporters in Brampton, Ont., which is considered a key battleground, Mr. Chrétien spoke of the world being in turmoil and cited such issues as the impacts of climate change. The story by The Globe and Mail’s Kristy Kirkup is here.
TRUDEAU DEFENDS ONTARIO EVENT WITH 400 PEOPLE, SAYS ALL HEALTH GUIDELINES FOLLOWED: Mr. Trudeau is defending holding a packed campaign event in Brampton with 400 people on Tuesday evening, saying the event was in keeping with provincial guidelines despite criticism, including from Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole. Kristy Kirkup’s follow-up story is here.
SINGH SAYS CANDIDATES RESIGNING WAS THE ‘RIGHT DECISION’ AFTER ANTISEMITIC TWEETS SURACE: NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said that the resignations of two NDP candidates was the “right decision” after old Twitter posts recently came to light that were deemed to be antisemitic.
At a campaign stop in Windsor, Ont., on Wednesday morning, Mr. Singh was asked about Sidney Coles and Dan Osborne, two NDP candidates that were running in the ridings of Toronto-St. Paul’s and Nova Scotia’s Cumberland-Colchester, respectively. Both stepped down less than a week before election day, after old Twitter posts from each candidate resurfaced. The story by the Globe and Mail’s Menaka Raman-Wilms is here.
TRUDEAU WARNS PROGRESSIVES TO VOTE LIBERAL TO WARD OFF CONSERVATIVES, AS O’TOOLE COURTS QUEBEC: Mr. Trudeau appeared alongside the former leader of British Columbia’s Green Party on Tuesday to make a final attempt at appealing to progressive voters, arguing that the Liberals are the only party that can stop the Conservatives as election day draws near.
Meanwhile, Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole sent a letter to Quebec Premier François Legault in an effort to ease concerns about the Conservative Party’s child-care plan, as the Tory Leader looks to court Quebec voters. Story by the Globe and Mail’s election team is here.
CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATE APOLOGIZES FOR SPREADING COVID VACCINE MISINFORMATION: Manitoba Conservative candidate and incumbent Ted Falk has apologized after he was quoted in a local newspaper making the false claim that people are 13 times more likely to die from the Delta variant if they were double-vaccinated, compared to unvaccinated. The Canadian Press report can be found here.
TRUDEAU SAYS HE PLAYED NO ROLE IN DEAL WITH CHINESE GOVERNMENT PRESS THAT REPUBLISHED HIS MEMOIR: The Conservative Party is asking Canada’s federal ethics watchdog to reveal whether it scrutinized a 2016 deal where a Chinese state-owned publishing house republished Justin Trudeau’s private memoirs under the title The Legend Continues. Meanwhile, Mr. Trudeau distanced himself from the book deal and declined to explicitly say whether the ethics commissioner okayed the China book deal. Story by the Globe and Mail’s Steven Chase and Robert Fife is here.
NEW INFLATION NUMBERS SPILL INTO ELECTION CAMPAIGN: Canadian inflation surged in August at the quickest pace since 2003, jumping 4.1 per cent in August from a year earlier. The Globe and Mail’s Matt Lundy reports on the details here. Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole, who has been raising inflation concerns throughout the campaign, said in a statement that Canada “is experiencing an affordability crisis” and Liberal and NDP policies will make it worse. Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau suggested the situation is temporary and said his party is offering policies on housing and child care that will help lower costs for Canadians.
LEADERS
Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-François Blanchet campaigns in Montreal. Longueuil, Châteauguay, Saint-Bruno-de-Montarville, Varennes and Mont-Saint-Hilaire.
Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole made an announcement and held a media availability in Jonquiere, Que., and is scheduled to hold an evening event with supporters in Orford.
Green Party Leader Annamie Paul holds a press conference in Kitchener, Ont., withMike Schreiner, the leader of the Ontario Green Party, and mainstreets in Kitchener and Toronto.
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau made an announcement and held a media availability in Halifax.
NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh spoke to the media in Essex, Ont., and visited supporters in London. He was scheduled to visit supporters in Niagara Centre, Hamilton and Brampton and join a Twitch stream event with YouTuber Ryan Letourneau.
OPINION
Gary Mason (The Globe and Mail)on Maxime Bernier’s disgraceful election campaign: “Election campaigns are bruising, generally thankless affairs, in which the mood of the candidates is inextricably linked to the proximity of the finish line. That is, unless you have nothing to lose, then you can often enjoy the experience and get more exposure than you ever imagined – or frankly, deserved. Welcome to Mad Max Bernier’s world.”
Eric Reguly (The Globe and Mail)on how Norway’s election thrust climate to the political forefront and may be a taste of elections to come: “The Norwegian election might be a foretaste of elections to come as the planet heats up. The election result – the swing to the left partly propelled by heightened environmental awareness – signaled climate issues are entering the political mainstream, at least in western Europe, and are less divisive than they used to be. Canada is not quite there yet, but give it time. Wealthy Norway has the luxury of knowing that throwing fortunes at reducing emissions won’t hurt the economy, as it might in some other countries. Cries of hypocrisy as the oil revenue continues to fill Norwegian state bank accounts will not disappear any time soon. But give that time, too.”
Erna Paris (Contributor to The Globe and Mail)on why federal leaders’ sycophantic acceptance of Quebec’s Bill 21 is dangerous for all of Canada:“To back such legislation is not only hypocrisy on the part of Canadian leaders, but an affront to the fundamental commitments we espouse in this country. During the debate, it was striking to note that in the same breath as the main party leaders refused to challenge Quebec’s right to discriminate, they simultaneously mouthed their support for the Canadian shibboleths of human rights and equality.”
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HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.
Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.
A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”
Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.
“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.
In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”
“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”
Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.
Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.
Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.
“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.
“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.
“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”
Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.
“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”
NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”
“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.
Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.
She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.
Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.
Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.
The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.
Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.
“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.
“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”
The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.
In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.
“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”
In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.
“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”
Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.
Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.
“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”
In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.
In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.
“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”
Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.
“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”
The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.
“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.
“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
