Politics

Politics of census delay differ in New Jersey, Virginia – Toronto Star

Published

4 years ago

January 30, 2021

FALLS CHURCH, Va. – The Census Bureau’s missed deadlines could be a boon for Virginia Republicans but a bust for the New Jersey GOP — and the reverse for Democrats — as the only two states with legislative elections this year do so without the data they need to draw new boundaries.

The 2021 election cycle, the first since Democrats took control of the White House and Congress, is also supposed to be the first conducted after redistricting based on changes captured in the once-a-decade census required under the Constitution.

The delay in census figures means Virginia and New Jersey will continue to use decade-old maps that don’t reflect growth in areas such as northern Virginia and may undercount people of colour, factors that could contribute to shifts in their statehouses.

The two are the only states with statewide elections in 2021; the unusual election cycle often provides an early window into the electorate’s view on a new presidential administration.

In past decades, the Census Bureau has given Virginia and New Jersey priority in receiving their redistricting data so they can complete the process in time to run their elections. This year, the entire census has been delayed by a combination of factors, and a top Census Bureau official said Wednesday that states won’t receive the necessary redistricting data for legislative boundaries until July.

That’s too late to accommodate Virginia and New Jersey, so they will have little choice but to conduct elections this year under the existing boundaries.

In New Jersey, voters approved a constitutional amendment to leave the existing lines in place for 2021 if the state didn’t receive the requisite census data by February, so its path forward is clear.

But that doesn’t mean everyone is pleased with how things turned out.

Republicans gripe that the amendment will lock in a Democratic advantage for another year, and apart from political party considerations, there are worries that people of colour — particularly Hispanics and Asian Americans — whose population has grown an estimated 20% over the past decade won’t be fairly represented.

Democrats hold a 25-15 edge in the state Senate and a 52-28 advantage in the Assembly.

Jon Bramnick, the Republican Assembly minority leader, put the amendment that carries forward the current map in stark terms: “It’s bad.”

“It has kept Republicans in the minority for 20 years. Why would we want to keep a map that has kept Democrats in the majority?” he said.

The nonpartisan Princeton Gerrymandering Project raised concerns that the amendment could put people of colour at a disadvantage.

“It would … dilute the voting power of these communities immediately, in 2021,” said the project’s director, Sam Wang, during a legislative hearing. “A two-year delay in redistricting would likely harm communities of colour, who have grown in population in areas across the state.”

Democratic Assemblyman John McKeon sponsored the amendment. He said if legislative redistricting were rushed in time for the 2021 election, it would likely be with incomplete census data.

“We either have a whole eight years of good numbers or 10 years of bad,” he said in an interview. “Why deal with partial numbers and then have a district that’s not representative?”

In Virginia, on the other hand, the status quo gives an advantage to Republicans, said Mark Rozell, political scientist at George Mason University.

“This buys one additional election cycle for Republicans before the redistricting process reflects the changes that benefit a more progressive side of the political spectrum,” Rozell said.

The expectation in Virginia is that the new data will continue the ongoing population growth in northern Virginia — a Democratic stronghold— at the expense of more rural areas that lean Republican.

The House of Delegates lines that were created in 2011 were drawn by a Republican-controlled chamber to benefit the GOP. In fact, when those boundaries were challenged on the basis of racial gerrymandering, Republicans defended themselves in court by arguing that they were motivated by partisan bias, not racial bias, when they drew the lines.

Democratic Del. Marcus Simon of Fairfax, a member of Virginia’s newly created bipartisan redistricting commission that will draw the new lines once the census data is received, said the GOP’s advantage under the old lines has been blunted to an extent by a 2019 court-ordered redistricting that unpacked racial minorities who had been crammed into 11 House districts. The redrawn lines made Democrats more competitive in a higher number of districts. That in turn fueled a Democratic gain of six seats in the 2019 House elections, flipping the chamber to Democratic control.

Less certain in Virginia is when candidates who win in 2021 will have to run again. A court could order elections to be held in 2022 to get the new lines in place as quickly as possible, and again in 2023. Or the 2021 winners could be allowed to keep their seats until 2023.

As much as Democrats might want the run under the new lines, Simon said the expenses and toll of running elections in three consecutive years might be excessive. And from a partisan perspective, he acknowledged that giving Republicans an opportunity in three consecutive years to flip the House of Delegates would not be ideal for Democrats.

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“There’s no chance (for Republicans) to claim the majority in 2022 if there’s no election,” he said.

___

Catalini reported from Trenton, N.J.

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Politics

‘Disgraceful:’ N.S. Tory leader slams school’s request that military remove uniform

Published

1 day ago

November 8, 2024

Anne Joseph

HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.

Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.

A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”

Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.

“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.

In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”

“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”

Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.

Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.

Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.

“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.

“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.

“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.

“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”

NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”

“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Saskatchewan NDP’s Beck holds first caucus meeting after election, outlines plans

Published

1 day ago

November 8, 2024

Anne Joseph

REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.

Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.

She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.

Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.

Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.

The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Nova Scotia election: Liberals say province’s immigration levels are too high

Published

2 days ago

November 7, 2024

Anne Joseph

HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.

Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.

“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.

“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”

The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.

In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.

“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”

In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.

“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”

Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.

Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.

“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”

In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.

In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.

“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”

Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.

“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”

The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.

“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.

Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.

“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

— With files from Keith Doucette in Halifax

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