That’s two straight American presidential elections the pollsters have gotten wrong, says Georgian College political science teacher Geoffrey Booth.
Democratic candidate Joe Biden’s six to 10 per cent lead — in several polls — has all but evaporated into a dead heat with Republican President Donald Trump in an election which might not be settled for days.
Approximately the same thing happened to Hillary Clinton’s lead against Trump four years ago.
“I was skeptically hopeful that the polls would get it right… but that’s the second time that they’ve got this wrong,” Booth said Wednesday.
“We’ve seen similar incidents in Canadian politics, but I thought because of what happened in 2016, that they would have drilled down more to make sure that what they were seeing was actually what was happening on the ground,” he added. “But some of the initial reactions to polls versus exit polls, there’s a total discrepancy.
“I think that maybe the Biden campaign just got the warm, fuzzy feeling that the polls were going to be accurate this time.”
Booth cited support for Trump among Latino males, by black men and women, groups of people that have seen what this president can do, what he has unleashed in U.S. politics that has disproportionately affected them negatively, including COVID-19, which has killed more than 230,000 Americans.
“There’s something more fundamental here,” he said. “I think it really does speak to an inability of the electorate at large to cope with the reality that faces everybody.
“You’d think the coronavirus would have (politically) killed that guy (Trump) in the water, dead, right?” Booth said. “And yet he has managed to turn the whole thing into a team sport. You know, wear my jersey, everything’s fine and so he’s realized now he can basically say anything and his base will follow him, regardless.
“But all of those others — the moderates, the skeptics, the independents, the undecided, the ones who voted for him in 2016, but really don’t like what they see — there’s something very warm and comforting about the vision that he paints,” said Booth.
“And that vision is ‘don’t worry about it, right, stay on the team and all the rest of this stuff will go away. It’s us against them’. It’s not about morality, it’s not about right or wrong, it’s about whether you’re going to wear the team jersey or not.”
What also struck Booth was Trump’s strategy of having four rallies in Pennsylvania on Monday, the day before the election. He said that depending on how that math breaks, if Trump takes Georgia and North Carolina, and Biden takes Nevada and Arizona, then it could come down to those Rust Belt states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.
“You’d have to feel pretty good about your chances if you’re a Trump supporter,” Booth said. “He’s been there four times in one day versus Biden, who’s born in Pennsylvania.”
But there are other reasons why America’s presidential election is a stalemate.
“I think it’s just this creeping inability of average Joes, people who sort of are tuned in but aren’t… they don’t want to have to sit down and pore over this stuff and talk about it. They just want a drink and a quick decision,” he said. “And Trump has as much said that (Tuesday) night. ‘It’s over, I won and let’s move on’.”
And if this dead heat isn’t troubling enough, what about Trump’s looming court challenge to the election results if he doesn’t win?
Booth says he has less fear for that because Trump would need hard evidence to make his case.
“Trump can do nothing if… in a perfect world, the votes all get counted and there’s no fraud, there’s no case to make, nobody found the 10,000 ballots in the garbage can. He has nothing to bring (to court),” he said.
But there’s also a possibility that this won’t matter.
“All he has to do is say it. If he says it, and the team hears him say ‘Hey, there’s been fraud,’ well, it’s a way more convenient way, first of all for him to avoid blame, but it’s also a way for him to say ‘Look, this is only reason I could have lost’,” Booth said.
Whatever its final result, the 2020 American election has shown the deep divide of its people.
“It really doesn’t matter, at the end of the day, who wins this,” Booth said. “I’m sad to say that polarization is alive and well. It’s not going away and I’d say it’s even worse.”
Electoral College at a glance
Americans voting for the next U.S. president — Trump or Biden — are actually casting ballots for a representative of that candidate’s party called an elector. These 538 electors then vote for president on behalf of people in their state.
A majority of 270 of these votes is required to win the American presidency.
The Electoral College almost always uses the winner-take-all system; candidates with the most votes in a state claim all of that state’s electoral votes. So winning California, which has 55 electoral votes, is more important than winning Hawaii, which has four.
Each American state is assigned a certain number of electoral votes based on their number of congressional districts, plus two additional votes representing their Senate seats. Washington, D.C., gets three electoral votes, despite having no voting representative in Congress (the House of Representatives and the Senate).
The House of Representatives has 435 members and elections every two years, including 2020.
The Senate has 100 members who serve six-year terms, with about one-third of them elected every two years. This year there are 35 Senate races this year.
Quebec legislature member Youri Chassin has announced he’s leaving the Coalition Avenir Québec government to sit as an Independent.
He announced the decision shortly after writing an open letter criticizing Premier François Legault’s government for abandoning its principles of smaller government.
In the letter published in Le Journal de Montréal and Le Journal de Québec, Chassin accused the party of falling back on what he called the old formula of throwing money at problems instead of looking to do things differently.
Chassin says public services are more fragile than ever, despite rising spending that pushed the province to a record $11-billion deficit projected in the last budget.
He is the second CAQ member to leave the party in a little more than one week, after economy and energy minister Pierre Fitzgibbon announced Sept. 4 he would leave because he lost motivation to do his job.
Chassin says he has no intention of joining another party and will instead sit as an Independent until the end of his term.
He has represented the Saint-Jérôme riding since the CAQ rose to power in 2018, but has not served in cabinet.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
MONTREAL – NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says he will not be taking advice from Pierre Poilievre after the Conservative leader challenged him to bring down government.
“I say directly to Pierre Poilievre: I’m not going to listen to you,” said Singh on Wednesday, accusing Poilievre of wanting to take away dental-care coverage from Canadians, among other things.
“I’m not going to listen to your advice. You want to destroy people’s lives, I want to build up a brighter future.”
Earlier in the day, Poilievre challenged Singh to commit to voting non-confidence in the government, saying his party will force a vote in the House of Commons “at the earliest possibly opportunity.”
“I’m asking Jagmeet Singh and the NDP to commit unequivocally before Monday’s byelections: will they vote non-confidence to bring down the costly coalition and trigger a carbon tax election, or will Jagmeet Singh sell out Canadians again?” Poilievre said.
“It’s put up or shut up time for the NDP.”
While Singh rejected the idea he would ever listen to Poilievre, he did not say how the NDP would vote on a non-confidence motion.
“I’ve said on any vote, we’re going to look at the vote and we’ll make our decision. I’m not going to say our decision ahead of time,” he said.
Singh’s top adviser said on Tuesday the NDP leader is not particularly eager to trigger an election, even as the Conservatives challenge him to do just that.
Anne McGrath, Singh’s principal secretary, says there will be more volatility in Parliament and the odds of an early election have risen.
“I don’t think he is anxious to launch one, or chomping at the bit to have one, but it can happen,” she said in an interview.
New Democrat MPs are in a second day of meetings in Montreal as they nail down a plan for how to navigate the minority Parliament this fall.
The caucus retreat comes one week after Singh announced the party has left the supply-and-confidence agreement with the governing Liberals.
It’s also taking place in the very city where New Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat on Monday, when voters go to the polls in Montreal’s LaSalle—Émard—Verdun. A second byelection is being held that day in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood—Transcona, where the NDP is hoping to hold onto a seat the Conservatives are also vying for.
While New Democrats are seeking to distance themselves from the Liberals, they don’t appear ready to trigger a general election.
Singh signalled on Tuesday that he will have more to say Wednesday about the party’s strategy for the upcoming sitting.
He is hoping to convince Canadians that his party can defeat the federal Conservatives, who have been riding high in the polls over the last year.
Singh has attacked Poilievre as someone who would bring back Harper-style cuts to programs that Canadians rely on, including the national dental-care program that was part of the supply-and-confidence agreement.
The Canadian Press has asked Poilievre’s office whether the Conservative leader intends to keep the program in place, if he forms government after the next election.
With the return of Parliament just days away, the NDP is also keeping in mind how other parties will look to capitalize on the new makeup of the House of Commons.
The Bloc Québécois has already indicated that it’s written up a list of demands for the Liberals in exchange for support on votes.
The next federal election must take place by October 2025 at the latest.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
Montreal Mayor Valérie Plante is defending her decision to turn off comments on her social media accounts — with an announcement on social media.
She posted screenshots to X this morning of vulgar names she’s been called on the platform, and says comments on her posts for months have been dominated by insults, to the point that she decided to block them.
Montreal’s Opposition leader and the Canadian Civil Liberties Association have criticized Plante for limiting freedom of expression by restricting comments on her X and Instagram accounts.
They say elected officials who use social media should be willing to hear from constituents on those platforms.
However, Plante says some people may believe there is a fundamental right to call someone offensive names and to normalize violence online, but she disagrees.
Her statement on X is closed to comments.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
